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Background Despite worldwide efforts to eradicate malaria over the past century, the disease remains a significant challenge in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) today. Climate change is even anticipated to worsen the situation in areas with higher altitudes and vulnerable populations. This study in Haut-Katanga, a highland region, aims to evaluate the effectiveness of past control measures and to explore the impact of climate change on the region’s distinct seasonal malaria pattern throughout the last century.Methods We integrated colonial medical records (1917–1983) from two major mining companies (Union Minière du Haut-Katanga and the Générale des Carrières et des Mines) with contemporary data (2003–2020) from Lubumbashi. Concurrently, we combined colonial climate records (1912–1946) with recent data from satellite images and weather stations (1940–2023). We used Generalised Additive Models to link the two data sources and to test for changing seasonal patterns in transmission.Results Malaria transmission in Haut-Katanga has fluctuated significantly over the past century, influenced by evolving control strategies, political conditions and a changing climate. A notable decrease in cases followed the introduction of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), while a surge occurred after the civil wars ended at the beginning of the new millennium. Recently, the malaria season began 1–2 months earlier than historically observed, likely due to a 2–5°C increase in mean minimum temperatures, which facilitates the sporogonic cycle of the parasite.Conclusion Despite contemporary control efforts, malaria incidence in Haut-Katanga is similar to levels observed in the 1930s, possibly influenced by climate change creating optimal conditions for malaria transmission. Our historical data shows that the lowest malaria incidence occurred during periods of intensive DDT use and indoor residual spraying. Consequently, we recommend the systematic reduction of vector populations as a key component of malaria control strategies in highland regions of sub-Saharan Africa.

Abstract Lions and their prey are threatened across most of their range and especially in West and Central Africa. Prey availability influences carnivore densities, social structure, prey preference and home ranges, and changes in prey are important for carnivore management. Scarcity of large prey in many West and Central African ecosystems has been described as leading to a preference for hunting smaller prey in smaller groups. Here we investigated the changes in prey selection of lions in Zakouma National Park (Chad), a protected area in Central Africa that showed significant recovery in wildlife numbers, by collecting feeding data through observations of lions on kills during monitoring drives and GPS cluster points of lion collars. Compared to similar data collected prior to this significant recovery, lions preferred larger prey and fed in larger groups. Our results show that diet shifts due to prey losses can be reversed with restoration of prey populations thanks to improved management, and we speculate that this may be true across large carnivores and across regions.

Abstract The multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis) is the most-studied rodent species in sub-Saharan Africa, where it is an important pest species in agriculture and carrier of zoonotic diseases (e.g. Lassa virus). Here, we provide a unique dataset that consists of twenty-nine years of continuous monthly capture-mark-recapture entries on one 3 ha mosaic field (MOSA) in Morogoro, Tanzania. It is one of the most accurate and long-running capture-recapture time series on a small mammal species worldwide and unique to Africa. The database can be used by ecologists to test hypotheses on the population dynamics of small mammals (e.g. to test the effect of climate change), or to validate new algorithms on real long-term field data (e.g. new survival analyses techniques). It is also useful for both scientists and decision-makers who want to optimize rodent control strategies and predict outbreaks of multimammate mice.

Trichuriosis is a disease in mammals caused by the whipworms of the genus Trichuris. These worms are known for the high disease burden they cause in humans and domestic animals, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we investigated the prevalence and seasonal variations of Trichuris worms in multimammate rats (Mastomys natalensis). The study was conducted between January and November 2021 in Tanzania, in two regions (Morogoro and Iringa) that differ in their eco-climatic conditions. Removal trapping was conducted using Sherman® live traps during the rainy and dry seasons. The gastrointestinal tracts of captured rodents were screened for the presence of Trichuris worms, which were identified using morphological keys. A total of 200 M. natalensis rats were collected from each of the regions, with 100 animals in each season. For Morogoro, the overall prevalence of Trichuris worms in M. natalensis was 36% (n = 72), of which 42% (n = 42) and 30% (n = 30) were for the rainy and dry seasons, respectively. For Iringa, the overall prevalence was 65% (n = 130), of which there were 80% (n = 80) and 50% (n = 50) for the rainy and dry seasons, respectively. Trichuris worm infections were significantly higher during the rainy season in Iringa than in Morogoro; however, no significant difference in infections between males and females was noted in either region or season. Other helminths detected were Strongyloides spp., Capillaria spp., Hymenolepis spp. and eggs of a helminth that has yet to be confirmed, possibly an Anoplocephalid species. Since M. natalensis is the most important pest species in sub-Saharan Africa, and is a carrier of several zoonotic helminths, there is a need for improved surveillance of helminths infections in the studied regions, in order to establish strategic control programs to reduce their adverse impacts on health.

We report results from serologic surveillance for exposure to SARS-CoV-2 among 1,237 wild rodents and small mammals across Europe. All samples were negative, with the possible exception of 1. Despite suspected potential for human-to-rodent spillover, no evidence of widespread SARS-CoV-2 circulation in rodent populations has been reported to date. Esitämme tulokset serologisesta tutkimuksesta, jossa seulottiin SARS-CoV-2 tartuntojen varalta 1,237 luonnonvaraista jyrsijää ja piennisäkästä eri puolilta Eurooppaa. Kaikki näytteet olivat negatiivisia, yhtä näytettä lukuun ottamatta. SARS-CoV-2:n läikkymisen ihmisistä jyrsijöihin on arveltu olevan mahdollista, mutta todisteet viruksen laajamittaisesta leviämisestä jyrsijäpopulaatioissa puuttuvat.

Background: Following an outbreak of cases of vesicular-pustular rash with fever, evocative of human monkeypox, in Bas-Uélé province, Democratic Republic of Congo, surveillance was strengthened. Methods: Households with at least one active generalized vesicular-pustular rash case were visited, and contact and clinical history information were collected from all household members. Whenever possible, skin lesions were screened by polymerase chain reaction for the monkeypox virus, followed by the varicella-zoster virus, when negative for the former. Results: Polymerase chain reaction results were obtained for 77 suspected cases, distributed in 138 households, of which 27.3% were positive for monkeypox, 58.4% positive for chickenpox, and 14.3% negative for both. Confirmed monkeypox cases presented more often with monomorphic skin lesions on the palms of the hands and on the soles of the feet. Integrating these three features into the case definition raised the specificity to 85% but would miss 50% of true monkeypox cases. A predictive model fit on patient demographics and symptoms had 97% specificity and 80% sensitivity but only 80% and 33% in predicting out-of-sample cases. Conclusion: Few discriminating features were identified and the performance of clinical case definitions was suboptimal. Rapid field diagnostics are needed to optimize worldwide early detection and surveillance of monkeypox.

Population control of the house mouse (Mus musculus), Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) and black rat (Rattus rattus) is common practice worldwide. Our objective was to assess the impact on animal welfare of lethal and non-lethal control methods, including three dispatch methods. We used the Sharp and Saunders welfare assessment model with eight experts scoring eleven control methods and three dispatch methods used on the three species. We presumed the methods were performed as prescribed, only taking into account the effect on the target animal (and not, for example, on non-target catches). We did not assess population control efficacy of the methods. Methods considered to induce the least suffering to the target animal were captive-bolt traps, electrocution traps and cervical dislocation, while those with the greatest impact were anticoagulants, cholecalciferol and deprivation. Experts indicated considerable uncertainty regarding their evaluation of certain methods, which emphasises the need for further scientific research. In particular, the impact of hydrogen cyanide, chloralose and aluminium phosphide on animal welfare ought to be investigated. The experts also stressed the need to improve Standard Operating Procedures and to incorporate animal welfare assessments in Integrated Pest Management (IPM). The results of our study can help laypeople, professionals, regulatory agencies and legislators making well-informed decisions as to which methods to use when controlling commensal rodents.

BackgroundCutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease that is caused by a Leishmania parasite and transmitted by the bite of infected female sandflies. Community awareness is an essential component of disease control and prevention. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the community's knowledge, attitude, and practice toward CL in Wolaita zone, southern Ethiopia.MethodsA community-based cross-sectional study design was employed to include 422 study subjects selected using a systematic sampling technique from two districts, Kindo Didaye and Sodo Zuria. A pretested structured questionnaire was used to collect data from the household heads. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the relationship between the participants' knowledge about CL and socio-demographic characteristics.ResultsOut of the 422 study participants, only 19% had good knowledge of CL in general. Most (67.1%) of the respondents knew CL by its local name ("bolbo" or "moora") though this knowledge varied highly over the study districts. The majority (86.3%) of respondents did not know how CL is acquired, though they considered CL a health problem. Most (62.8%) respondents believed that CL was an untreatable disease. Most (77%) participants responded that CL patients preferred to go to traditional healers for treatment. Herbal treatment was the most (50.2%) used to treat CL. Knowledge about CL was significantly associated with sex, age, and study districts.ConclusionThe overall knowledge, attitude, and practice about CL and its prevention in the study area were low. This emphasizes the need to implement health education and awareness campaign to reduce the risk of CL infection. Policymakers and stakeholders should also give due attention to the prevention and treatment of CL in the study area.

Abstract Praomys delectorum occurs abundantly in both disturbed and intact forests in the Ukaguru Mountains within the Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM), Morogoro, Tanzania. While previous studies have reported that anthropogenic disturbances such as grazing, wood cutting, and harvesting have a positive effect on the population density of P. delectorum, the impact of habitat disturbance on its demographic traits is still unknown. We performed a capture–mark–recapture study in both disturbed and intact forests from June 2018 to February 2020 in order to investigate the effects of habitat disturbance on abundance and two demographic traits: survival and maturation of P. delectorum in the Ukaguru Mountains. We found no variation in abundance or maturation between intact and disturbed forests, but habitat type did affect survival. However, this effect was sex‐dependent since female survival was higher in disturbed forests, while male survival remained similar across the two forest types potentially due to differences in predation pressure or food availability between the two habitats. Continuous demographic monitoring of P. delectorum in EAM is necessary given that the increasing human population surrounding the landscape is leading to higher deforestation rates and expansion of the pine plantation in the forest reserve.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to millions of human infections and deaths worldwide. Several other mammal species are also susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, and multiple instances of transmission from humans to pets, farmed mink, wildlife and zoo animals have been recorded. We conducted a systematic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in all mammal species in two zoos in Belgium between September and December 2020 and July 2021, in four sessions, and a targeted surveillance of selected mammal enclosures following SARS-CoV-2 infection in hippopotamuses in December 2021. A total of 1523 faecal samples from 103 mammal species were tested for SARS-CoV-2 via real-time PCR. None of the samples tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Additional surrogate virus neutralisation tests conducted on 50 routinely collected serum samples from 26 mammal species were all negative. This study is the first to our knowledge to conduct active SARS-CoV-2 surveillance for several months in all mammal species of a zoo. We conclude that at the time of our investigation, none of the screened animals were excreting SARS-CoV-2.

The spotted hyena is positioned at the top of food chains and has the ability to influence the diversity of herbivores. Knowledge of this predator through research can assist in effective management decisions which will ensure ecosystem integrity. A study on population estimation and livestock loss by the spotted hyenas was conducted from January 2019 to December 2020 in the Damota community managed forests. Data was collected through distance sampling techniques, and the economic impacts of spotted hyena predation on livestock were quantified using a questionnaire survey with randomly selected households. Twenty-five transects were monitored over a period of two consecutive years. A mean of 113 ± 0.51 individuals of spotted hyena was observed per 100 km2. The density of spotted hyena was 1.34 ± 0.42 and 0.69 ± 0.12 individuals/km2 and 0.55 ± 0.97 and 0.75 ± 0.14 individuals/km2 in farm and forest during 2019 and 2020, respectively. The mean sex ratio of the adult male to adult female was 0.56:1.00 and 0.74:1.00 during the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Moreover, the mean sex ratio of adult to cub was 1:0.25 and 1:0.29 during the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Respondents indicated a total loss of 377 livestock due to the depredation of spotted hyenas over the past five years. The total estimated economic loss caused by depredation, theft, and diseases was US$ 47,885. On average, US$ 9577 per year (US$ 26 per day) has been lost over the past five years. The average annual depredation per household was 0.98 head of livestock worth US$ 95.6. Among depredated livestock, 64.8% of sheep were lost by spotted hyena, followed by donkey (16.4%). Therefore, livestock management practices, assessment of spotted hyena population, and economic loss are very important for carnivore conservation and scaling up human livelihood development.

Abstract Background Ethiopia is affected by human leishmaniasis caused by several Leishmania species and transmitted by a variety of sand fly vectors of the genus Phlebotomus. The sand fly fauna in Ethiopia is highly diverse and some species are closely related and similar in morphology, resulting in difficulties with species identification that requires deployment of molecular techniques. DNA barcoding entails high costs, requires time and lacks reference sequences for many Ethiopian species. Yet, proper species identification is pivotal for epidemiological surveillance as species differ in their actual involvement in transmission cycles. Recently, protein profiling using MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry has been introduced as a promising technique for sand fly identification. Methods In our study, we used an integrative taxonomic approach to identify most of the important sand fly vectors of leishmaniasis in Ethiopia, applying three complementary methods: morphological assessment, sequencing analysis of two genetic markers, and MALDI-TOF MS protein profiling. Results Although morphological assessment resulted in some inconclusive identifications, both DNA- and protein-based techniques performed well, providing a similar hierarchical clustering pattern for the analyzed species. Both methods generated species-specific sequences or protein patterns for all species except for Phlebotomus pedifer and P. longipes, the two presumed vectors of Leishmania aethiopica, suggesting that they may represent a single species, P. longipes Parrot & Martin. All three approaches also revealed that the collected specimens of Adlerius sp. differ from P. (Adlerius) arabicus, the only species of Adlerius currently reported in Ethiopia, and molecular comparisons indicate that it may represent a yet undescribed new species. Conclusions Our study uses three complementary taxonomical methods for species identification of taxonomically challenging and yet medically import Ethiopian sand flies. The generated MALDI-TOF MS protein profiles resulted in unambiguous identifications, hence showing suitability of this technique for sand fly species identification. Furthermore, our results contribute to the still inadequate knowledge of the sand fly fauna of Ethiopia, a country severely burdened with human leishmaniasis.

Abstract Background Phlebotomus pedifer is the vector for Leishmania aethiopica causing cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in southwestern Ethiopia. Previous research on the transmission dynamics of CL resulted in recommendations for vector control. In order to target these interventions towards affected areas, a comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution of P. pedifer at high spatial resolution is required. Therefore, this study determined the environmental predictors that facilitate the distribution of P. pedifer and created a map indicating the areas where conditions are suitable for survival of the vector in southwestern Ethiopia with high spatial resolution. Methods Phlebotomus pedifer presence points were collected during two entomological surveys. Climate, vegetation and topographic variables were assembled. Climate variables were interpolated with variables derived from high-resolution digital elevation models to generate topoclimatic layers representing the climate conditions in the highlands. A Maximum Entropy model was run with the presence points, predicting variables and background points, which were selected based on a bias file. Results Phlebotomus pedifer was the only captured Phlebotomus species in the study area and was collected at altitudes ranging between 1685 and 2892 m. Model projections indicated areas with suitable conditions in a ‘belt’ surrounding the high mountain peaks. Model performance was high, with train and test AUC values being 0.93 and 0.90, respectively. A multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS) analysis showed that the model projection was only slightly extrapolated for some of the variables. The mean annual temperature was the environmental variable, which contributed most to the model predictions (60.0%) followed by the seasonality in rainfall (13.2%). Variables representing steep slopes showed very low importance to model predictions. Conclusions Our findings indicate that the suitable habitats for P. pedifer correspond well with the altitudes at which CL was reported previously, but the predictions are more widely distributed, in contrast with the description of CL to occur in particular foci. Moreover, we confirm that vector distribution is driven by climate factors, suggesting inclusion of topoclimate in sand fly distribution models. Overall, our model provides a map with a high spatial resolution that can be used to target sand fly control measures in southwestern Ethiopia.

After the 2017 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in Likati, a district in northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, we sampled small mammals from the location where the primary case-patient presumably acquired the infection. None tested positive for EBOV RNA or antibodies against EBOV, highlighting the ongoing challenge in detecting animal reservoirs for EBOV.

Abstract Background In eco-epidemiological studies, Leishmania detection in vectors and reservoirs is frequently accomplished by high-throughput and sensitive molecular methods that target minicircle kinetoplast DNA (kDNA). A pan-Leishmania SYBR green quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay which detects the conserved spliced-leader RNA (SL RNA) sequence was developed recently. This study assessed the SL RNA assay performance combined with a crude extraction method for the detection of Leishmania in field-collected and laboratory-reared sand flies and in tissue samples from hyraxes as reservoir hosts. Methods Field-collected and laboratory-infected sand fly and hyrax extracts were subjected to three different qPCR approaches to assess the suitability of the SL RNA target for Leishmania detection. Nucleic acids of experimentally infected sand flies were isolated with a crude extraction buffer with ethanol precipitation and a commercial kit and tested for downstream DNA and RNA detection. Promastigotes were isolated from culture and sand fly midguts to assess whether there was difference in SL RNA and kDNA copy numbers. Naive sand flies were spiked with a serial dilution of promastigotes to make a standard curve. Results The qPCR targeting SL RNA performed well on infected sand fly samples, despite preservation and extraction under presumed unfavorable conditions for downstream RNA detection. Nucleic acid extraction by a crude extraction buffer combined with a precipitation step was highly compatible with downstream SL RNA and kDNA detection. Copy numbers of kDNA were found to be identical in culture-derived parasites and promastigotes isolated from sand fly midguts. SL RNA levels were slightly lower in sand fly promastigotes (ΔCq 1.7). The theoretical limit of detection and quantification of the SL RNA qPCR respectively reached down to 10−3 and 10 parasite equivalents. SL RNA detection in stored hyrax samples was less efficient with some false-negative assay results, most likely due to the long-term tissue storage in absence of RNA stabilizing reagents. Conclusions This study shows that a crude extraction method in combination with the SL RNA qPCR assay is suitable for the detection and quantification of Leishmania in sand flies. The assay is inexpensive, sensitive and pan-Leishmania specific, and accordingly an excellent assay for high-throughput screening in entomological research.

The Livingstone Mountains (LM; also known as the Kipengere Range) found in south-western Tanzania at the northern end of Lake Nyasa are an important region for understanding the biogeography of Eastern Africa. The two branches of the East African Rift Valley meet here and the mountains might represent stepping stones for colonization and migration between different parts of the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot (especially the link between the Eastern Arc Mountains, EAM, and the Southern Rift Mountains, SRM), as well as an efficient barrier to gene flow for taxa living in drier savannahs in lower elevations. Here we combine new mitochondrial sequence data from 610 recently sampled rodents and shrews with available georeferenced genetic data (3538 specimens) from southern Tanzania, northern Malawi/Zambia and northern Mozambique and compare the spatial genetic structure among different taxa. There is no universal phylogeographic pattern in taxa preferring humid montane habitats. For some of them, the Makambako Gap acts as a barrier between the SRM and the EAM, but other taxa can bridge this gap. Barriers within the EAM (frequently) and within the SRM (sometimes) appear more important. The Rukwa rift between the SRM and the ARM is an important barrier that perhaps can only be crossed by taxa that are not that strictly tied to humid montane environments. For mammals living in lower-elevation savannah-like habitats, the LM can act as a strict barrier to gene flow, and together with the Ufipa Plateau, Lake Nyasa and the EAM create a very similar phylogeographic pattern with three recognizable genetic groups in most savannah-dwellers. The Livingstone Mountains thus appear to be one of the most important biogeographic crossroads in Eastern Africa.

Two adult female hippos in Zoo Antwerp who were naturally infected with SARS-CoV-2 showed nasal discharge for a few days. Virus was detected by immunocytochemistry and PCR in nasal swab samples and by PCR in faeces and pool water. Serology was also positive. No treatment was necessary.

Infection probability, load, and community structure of helminths varies strongly between and within animal populations. This can be ascribed to environmental stochasticity or due to individual characteristics of the host such as their age or sex. Other, but understudied, factors are the hosts' behavior and co-infection patterns. In this study, we used the multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) as a model system to investigate how the hosts' sex, age, exploration behavior, and viral infection history affects their infection risk, parasitic load, and community structure of gastrointestinal helminths. We hypothesized that the hosts' exploration behavior would play a key role in the risk for infection by different gastrointestinal helminths, whereby highly explorative individuals would have a higher infection risk leading to a wider diversity of helminths and a larger load compared to less explorative individuals. Fieldwork was performed in Morogoro, Tanzania, where we trapped a total of 214 individual mice. Their exploratory behavior was characterized using a hole-board test after which we collected the helminths inside their gastrointestinal tract. During our study, we found helminths belonging to eight different genera: Hymenolepis sp., Protospirura muricola, Syphacia sp., Trichuris mastomysi, Gongylonema sp., Pterygodermatites sp., Raillietina sp., and Inermicapsifer sp. and one family: Trichostrongylidae. Hierarchical modeling of species communities (HMSC) was used to investigate the effect of the different host-related factors on the infection probability, parasite load, and community structure of these helminths. Our results show that species richness was higher in adults and in females compared to juveniles and males, respectively. Contrary to our expectations, we found that less explorative individuals had higher infection probability with different helminths resulting in a higher diversity, which could be due to a higher exposure rate to these helminths and/or behavioral modification due to the infection.

Abstract This paper documents a community of eastern chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii Giglioli, 1872) inhabiting three relict forest fragments situated on the Lake Albert escarpment, down the Ituri highlands, of eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The area explored had a combined forested surface of ±18.15 km2 in 2017, shrinking by 1.2% per year between 2010 and 2015. Between 2015 and 2017, we found 160 chimpanzee nests along 37.6 km of pilot walks, some up to 2,000 m altitude. Another 123 nests logged along 6.7 km transects led to an estimate of chimpanzee density of 4.62 weaned individuals per square kilometer of forest habitat. Camera‐trap images and direct observations revealed that this community is comprised of a minimum of 42 weaned individuals, which translates into an estimated density of 2.3 chimpanzees per square kilometer. The increasing rate of forest degradation threatens to erode the cultural and genetic diversity of nonhuman primates in eastern DRC; the local people however exhibit willingness to establish a community managed reserve. We hope that this report will lead to the recognition of this site as a Chimpanzee Conservation Unit, facilitating further research in these “Relict Altitude Forests Fragments of the Albert Lake Escarpment” (or RAFALE landscape) and the Ituri highlands where other undocumented chimpanzee communities occur.

Abstract Conspecific density and animal personality (consistent among‐individual differences in behavior) may both play an important role in disease ecology. Nevertheless, both factors have rarely been studied together but may provide insightful information in understanding pathogen transmission dynamics. In this study, we investigated how both personality and density affect viral infections both direct and indirectly, using the multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis) and Morogoro arenavirus (MORV) as a model system. Using a replicated semi‐natural experiment, we found a positive correlation between MORV antibody presence and density, suggesting that MORV infection is density‐dependent. Surprisingly, slower explorers were more likely to have antibodies against MORV compared to highly explorative individuals. However, exploration was positively correlated with density which may suggest a negative, indirect effect of density on MORV infection. We have shown here that in order to better understand disease ecology, both personality and density should be taken into account.

Abstract Pest rodents remain key biotic constraints to cereal crops production in the East African region where they occur, especially in seasons of outbreaks. Despite that, Uganda has scant information on rodents as crop pests to guide effective management strategies. A capture–mark–recapture (CMR) technique was employed to study the ecology of small rodents, specifically to establish the species composition and community structure in a maize‐based agro ecosystem. Trapping of small rodents was conducted in permanent fallow land and cultivated fields, with each category replicated twice making four study grids. At each field, a 60 × 60 m grid was measured and marked with permanent trapping points spaced at 10 × 10 m, making a total of 49 trapping points/grids. Trapping was conducted monthly at 4‐week interval for three consecutive days for two and half years using Sherman live traps. Eleven identified small rodent species and one insectivorous small mammal were recorded with Mastomys natalensis being the most dominant species (over 60.7%). Other species were Mus triton (16.1%), Aethomys hendei (6.7%), Lemniscomys zebra (5.2%), Lophuromys sikapusi (4.8%), Arvicanthis niloticus (0.9%), Gerbilliscus kempi (0.1%), Graphiurus murinus (0.1%), Steatomys parvus (0.1%), Dasymys incomtus (0.1%), and Grammomys dolichurus (0.1%). Spatially, species richness differed significantly (p = 0.0001) between the studied field habitats with significantly higher richness in fallow land compared with cultivated fields. Temporally, total species richness and abundance showed a significant interaction effect over the months, years, and fields of trapping with significantly (p = 0.001) higher abundances during months of wet seasons and in the first and third year of trapping. In terms of community structure, higher species diversity associated more with fallow field habitats but also with certain rare species found only in cultivated fields. Synthesis and applications. Based on these findings, management strategies can be designed to target the key pest species and the most vulnerable habitats thus reducing the impact they can inflict on field crops.

ABSTRACTThe Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) is the reservoir host of Lassa virus, an arenavirus that causes Lassa haemorrhagic fever in humans in West Africa. Because no vaccine exists and therapeutic options are limited, preventing infection through rodent control and human behavioural measures is currently considered to be the only option. In order to assess the efficacy of rodent control, we performed a 4-year field experiment in rural Upper Guinea and developed a mathematical model to simulate different control strategies (annual density control, continuous density control, and rodent vaccination). For the field study, rodenticide baits were placed each year in three rural villages, while three other villages were used as controls. Rodents were trapped before and after every treatment and their antibody status and age were determined. Data from the field study were used to parameterize the mathematical model. In the field study, we found a significant negative effect of rodent control on seroprevalence, but this effect was small especially given the effort. Furthermore, the rodent populations recovered rapidly after rodenticide application, leading us to conclude that an annual control strategy is unlikely to significantly reduce Lassa virus spillover to humans. In agreement with this finding, the mathematical model suggests that the use of continuous control or rodent vaccination is the only strategy that could lead to Lassa virus elimination. These field and model results can serve as a guide for determining how long and frequent rodent control should be done in order to eliminate Lassa virus in rural villages.

In most low-resource settings, microscopy still is the standard method for diagnosis of cutaneous leishmaniasis, despite its limited sensitivity. In Ethiopia, the more sensitive molecular methods are not yet routinely used. This study compared five PCR methods with microscopy on two sample types collected from patients with a suspected lesion to advise on optimal diagnosis of Leishmania aethiopica. Between May and July 2018, skin scrapings (SS) and blood exudate from the lesion spotted on filter paper (dry blood spot, DBS) were collected for PCR from 111 patients of four zones in Southern Ethiopia. DNA and RNA were simultaneously extracted from both sample types. DNA was evaluated by a conventional PCR targeting ITS-1 and three probe-based real-time PCRs: one targeting the SSU 18S rRNA and two targeting the kDNA minicircle sequence (the 'Mary kDNA PCR' and a newly designed 'LC kDNA PCR' for improved L. aethiopica detection). RNAs were tested with a SYBR Green-based RT-PCR targeting spliced leader (SL) RNA. Giemsa-stained SS smears were examined by microscopy. Of the 111 SS, 100 were positive with at least two methods. Sensitivity of microscopy, ITS PCR, SSU PCR, Mary kDNA PCR, LC kDNA PCR and SL RNA PCR were respectively 52%, 22%, 64%, 99%, 100% and 94%. Microscopy-based parasite load correlated well with real-time PCR Ct-values. Despite suboptimal sample storage for RNA detection, the SL RNA PCR resulted in congruent results with low Ct-values. DBS collected from the same lesion showed lower PCR positivity rates compared to SS. The kDNA PCRs showed excellent performance for diagnosis of L. aethiopica on SS. Lower-cost SL RNA detection can be a complementary high-throughput tool. DBS can be used for PCR in case microscopy is negative, the SS sample can be sent to the referral health facility where kDNA PCR method is available.

Emerging infectious diseases are one of the greatest public health challenges. Approximately three-quarters of these diseases are of animal origin. These diseases include classical zoonoses maintained in humans only via transmission from other vertebrates (e.g., rabies) and those initiated by a successful one-off zoonotic event (host-switch) in conjunction with efficient human-to-human transmission (e.g., H1N1 influenza). Here, we provide a systematic review, in conjunction with a meta-analysis and spatial risk modeling, to identify the major characteristics of past epidemics of animal origin and predict areas with high future disease emergence risk. Countermeasures against future pandemics of animal origin must focus on several key mechanisms. First, the eco-epidemiological contexts favoring spillover events must be clearly establish. Second, pathogen surveillance must be scaled up, particularly in taxa and/or eco-geographic areas with high disease emergence risk. Third, successful spillover risk must be mitigated through proactive strategies to interrupt animal-to-human transmission chains. Fourth, to decrease epidemic potential and prevent epidemics from becoming pandemics, improved source identification and real-time spatial tracking of diseases are crucial. Finally, because pandemics do not respect international borders, enhancing international collaboration is critical to improving preparedness and response.

For wildlife diseases, one often relies on host density to predict host infection prevalence and the subsequent force of infection to humans in the case of zoonoses. Indeed, if transmission is mainly indirect, i.e., by way of the environment, the force of infection is expected to increase with host density, yet the laborious field data supporting this theoretical claim are often absent. Hantaviruses are among those zoonoses that have been studied extensively over the past decades, as they pose a significant threat to humans. In Europe, the most widespread hantavirus is the Puumala virus (PUUV), which is carried by the bank vole and causes nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans. Extensive field campaigns have been carried out in Central Finland to shed light on this supposed relationship between bank vole density and PUUV prevalence and to identify other drivers for the infection dynamics. This resulted in the surprising observation that the relationship between bank vole density and PUUV prevalence is not purely monotonic on an annual basis, contrary to what previous models predicted: a higher vole density does not necessary result in a higher infection prevalence, nor in an increased number of humans reported having NE. Here, we advance a novel individual-based spatially-explicit model which takes into account the immunity provided by maternal antibodies and which simulates the spatial behavior of the host, both possible causes for this discrepancy that were not accounted for in previous models. We show that the reduced prevalence in peak years can be attributed to transient immunity, and that the density-dependent spatial vole behavior, i.e., the fact that home ranges are smaller in high density years, plays only a minor role. The applicability of the model is not limited to the study and prediction of PUUV (and NE) occurrence in Europe, as it could be easily adapted to model other rodent-borne diseases, either with indirect or direct transmission.

BACKGROUND:Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a major public health concern in Ethiopia. However, knowledge about the complex zoonotic transmission cycle is limited, hampering implementation of control strategies. We explored the feeding behavior and activity of the vector (Phlebotomus pedifer) and studied the role of livestock in CL transmission in southwestern Ethiopia. METHODS:Blood meal origins of engorged sand flies were determined by sequencing host DNA. A host choice experiment was performed to assess the feeding preference of P. pedifer when humans and hyraxes are equally accessible. Ear and nose biopsies from livestock were screened for the presence of Leishmania parasites. Sand flies were captured indoor and outdoor with human landing catches and CDC light traps to determine at which time and where P. pedifer is mostly active. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:A total of 180 P. pedifer sand flies were found to bite hosts of 12 genera. Humans were the predominant blood meal source indoors (65.9%, p < 0.001), while no significant differences were determined outdoors and in caves. In caves, hyraxes were represented in blood meals equally as humans (45.5% and 42.4%, respectively), but the host choice experiment revealed that sand flies have a significant preference for feeding on hyraxes (p = 0.009). Only a single goat nose biopsy from 412 animal samples was found with Leishmania RNA. We found that P. pedifer is predominantly endophagic (p = 0.003), but occurs both indoors and outdoors. A substantial number of sand flies was active in the early evening, which increased over time reaching its maximum around midnight. CONCLUSION:In contrast to earlier suggestions of exclusive zoonotic Leishmania transmission, we propose that there is also human-to-human transmission of CL in southwestern Ethiopia. Livestock does not play a role in CL transmission and combined indoor and outdoor vector control measures at night are required for efficient vector control.

Understanding the determinants of species coexistence in complex and species-rich communities is a fundamental goal of ecology. Patterns of species coexistence depend on how biotic interactions and environmental filtering act over ecological and evolutionary time scales. Climatic fluctuations in lowland rainforests of the Congo Basin led to the number of vertebrate species being significantly lower in central compared with northern ecoregions of the Basin. We used null models to assess whether climatic variations affected the community assembly of shrews. A consistent limit to functional similarity of species was not related to species richness. Rather, species richness is constrained by environmental factors, and these constraints are stronger in the central lowland forests of the Congo Basin. By constraining species geographic distributions, historical effects of rainforest refugia arising from climatic fluctuations may affect contemporary species composition of local shrew communities. The Congo River represents a vicariance event that led to allopatric speciation of shrews and continues to represent a barrier to dispersal. Ultimately, the historical effects of this barrier have led to differences in the functional volume of shrew communities in northern and central ecoregions. We suggest that the analyses of community assembly can be used to identify Holocene refugia in the Congo Basin.

The data in brief provides a descriptive summary of the field data collected using Eco-health approach in order to support local effort aimed at creating information base for taking evidence-based decisions, especially in regard to wildlife conservation outside protected area and range resource management. The data were collected between June 2012 and July 2014 on a range of issues including wild animals, livestock, household income and cost of diseases control in cattle. In a nutshell the data article shows spatial pattern of a declining brucellosis prevalence in cattle linked to animal population density with increasing distance away from the Lake Mburo National Park (LMNP) boundary in southwestern Uganda. It is the trend of animal distribution in private land that the pastoralist communities perceived as influencing economic losses associated with diseases affecting cattle production. The pastoralists strongly believe that wild ungulates grazing with cattle outside the park on a daily basis present a potential risk of disease transmission which adversely affects their cherished source of livelihood. This article refers to “Brucellosis in cattle and micro-scale spatial variability of pastoral household income from dairy production in south western Uganda. Acta tropica”, Acta Tropica, 2018.

Abstract Background In the past decade, many new paramyxoviruses that do not belong to any of the seven established genera in the family Paramyxoviridae have been discovered. Amongst them are J-virus (JPV), Beilong virus (BeiPV) and Tailam virus (TlmPV), three paramyxovirus species found in rodents. Based on their similarities, it has been suggested that these viruses should compose a new genus, tentatively called ‘Jeilongvirus’. Results Here we present the complete genomes of three newly discovered paramyxoviruses, one found in a bank vole (Myodes glareolus) from Slovenia and two in a single, co-infected Rungwe brush-furred rat (Lophuromys machangui) from Mozambique, that represent three new, separate species within the putative genus ‘Jeilongvirus’. The genome organization of these viruses is similar to other paramyxoviruses, but like JPV, BeiPV and TlmPV, they possess an additional open reading frame, encoding a transmembrane protein, that is located between the F and G genes. As is the case for all Jeilongviruses, the G genes of the viruses described here are unusually large, and their encoded proteins are characterized by a remarkable amino acid composition pattern that is not seen in other paramyxoviruses, but resembles certain motifs found in Orthopneumovirus G proteins. Conclusions The phylogenetic clustering of JPV, BeiPV and TlmPV with the viruses described here, as well as their shared features that set them apart from other paramyxoviruses, provide additional support for the recognition of the genus ‘Jeilongvirus’.

Abstract Background Parasite evolution is hypothesized to select for levels of parasite virulence that maximise transmission success. When host population densities fluctuate, low levels of virulence with limited impact on the host are expected, as this should increase the likelihood of surviving periods of low host density. We examined the effects of Morogoro arenavirus on the survival and recapture probability of multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis) using a seven-year capture-mark-recapture time series. Mastomys natalensis is the natural host of Morogoro virus and is known for its strong seasonal density fluctuations. Results Antibody presence was negatively correlated with survival probability (effect size: 5–8% per month depending on season) but positively with recapture probability (effect size: 8%). Conclusions The small negative correlation between host survival probability and antibody presence suggests that either the virus has a negative effect on host condition, or that hosts with lower survival probability are more likely to obtain Morogoro virus infection, for example due to particular behavioural or immunological traits. The latter hypothesis is supported by the positive correlation between antibody status and recapture probability which suggests that risky behaviour might increase the probability of becoming infected.

In 2012, Tigray orthohantavirus was discovered in Ethiopia, but its seasonal infection in small mammals, and whether it poses a risk to humans was unknown. The occurrence of small mammals, rodents and shrews, in human inhabitations in northern Ethiopia is affected by season and presence of stone bunds. We sampled small mammals in two seasons from low- and high-density stone bund fields adjacent to houses and community-protected semi-natural habitats in Atsbi and Hagere Selam, where Tigray orthohantavirus was first discovered. We collected blood samples from both small mammals and residents using filter paper. The presence of orthohantavirus-reactive antibodies in blood was then analyzed using immunofluorescence assay (human samples) and enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (small mammal samples) with Puumala orthohantavirus as antigen. Viral RNA was detected by RT-PCR using small mammal blood samples. Total orthohantavirus prevalence (antibodies or virus RNA) in the small mammals was 3.37%. The positive animals were three Stenocephalemys albipes rats (prevalence in this species = 13.04%). The low prevalence made it impossible to determine whether season and stone bunds were associated with orthohantavirus prevalence in the small mammals. In humans, we report the first detection of orthohantavirus-reactive IgG antibodies in Ethiopia (seroprevalence = 5.26%). S. albipes lives in close proximity to humans, likely increasing the risk of zoonotic transmission.

Abstract Background In order to optimize net transmission success, parasites are hypothesized to evolve towards causing minimal damage to their reservoir host while obtaining high shedding rates. For many parasite species however this paradigm has not been tested, and conflicting results have been found regarding the effect of arenaviruses on their rodent host species. The rodent Mastomys natalensis is the natural reservoir host of several arenaviruses, including Lassa virus that is known to cause Lassa haemorrhagic fever in humans. Here, we examined the effect of three arenaviruses (Gairo, Morogoro and Lassa virus) on four parameters of wild-caught Mastomys natalensis: body mass, head-body length, sexual maturity and fertility. After correcting for the effect of age, we compared these parameters between arenavirus-positive (arenavirus RNA or antibody) and negative animals using data from different field studies in Guinea (Lassa virus) and Tanzania (Morogoro and Gairo viruses). Results Although the sample sizes of our studies (1297, 749 and 259 animals respectively) were large enough to statistically detect small differences in body conditions, we did not observe any adverse effects of these viruses on Mastomys natalensis. We did find that sexual maturity was significantly positively related with Lassa virus antibody presence until a certain age, and with Gairo virus antibody presence in general. Gairo virus antibody-positive animals were also significantly heavier and larger than antibody-free animals. Conclusion Together, these results suggest that the pathogenicity of arenaviruses is not severe in M. natalensis, which is likely to be an adaptation of these viruses to optimize transmission success. They also suggest that sexual behaviour might increase the probability of M. natalensis to become infected with arenaviruses.

BackgroundOchollo is a village in southern Ethiopia burdened with cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), where Phlebotomus pedifer is the only vector for Leishmania aethiopica and hyraxes are confirmed reservoir hosts. A detailed description of the different players of transmission, and the ecology and seasonality of the vector needs to be established in order to accomplish efficient control programs.Methods and findingsBetween March 2017 and February 2018, a monthly sandfly collection was carried out in different habitats and records of temperature and humidity were taken. Rodents and hyraxes were trapped in the dry and wet season. All samples were screened for Leishmania kinetoplast DNA (kDNA). Positive samples were further processed for determination of the Leishmania species and the species of the sandfly/small mammal that was found infected. Additionally, the species of 400 sandfly specimens from different habitats and seasons was identified. 17,190 Sergentomyia and Phlebotomus sandflies were caught and showed an overall kDNA prevalence of 2.6%, all were L. aethiopica infections only found in P. pedifer. The overall sandfly and P. pedifer abundance peaked in the dry season and was negatively correlated with the %RH. The kDNA prevalence varied over the months and was negatively correlated with the temperature. Total sandfly abundance did not differ between the sampled habitats, but P. pedifer was the distinct predominant species only in caves. Moreover, significantly more infected sandflies were found in caves. Only 1/192 rodents were kDNA positive, while 20.0% (5/25) of Heterohyrax brucei were found infected.ConclusionsThis study suggests that caves may be a source of multiplication of the infection. If an outdoor control program would be considered, it would be useful to focus on caves in the wet season, when the sandfly abundance is lowest. The captured rodent species appear not important for transmission and the contribution of hyraxes in transmission should be further investigated.

ABSTRACT Buruli ulcer is a neglected tropical disease of skin and subcutaneous tissue caused by infection with the pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans. Many critical issues for disease control, such as understanding the mode of transmission and identifying source reservoirs of M. ulcerans, are still largely unknown. Here, we used genomics to reconstruct in detail the evolutionary trajectory and dynamics of M. ulcerans populations at a central African scale and at smaller geographical village scales. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data were analyzed from 179 M. ulcerans strains isolated from all Buruli ulcer foci in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, The Republic of Congo, and Angola that have ever yielded positive M. ulcerans cultures. We used both temporal associations and the study of the mycobacterial demographic history to estimate the contribution of humans as a reservoir in Buruli ulcer transmission. Our phylogeographic analysis revealed one almost exclusively predominant sublineage of M. ulcerans that arose in Central Africa and proliferated in its different regions of endemicity during the Age of Discovery. We observed how the best sampled endemic hot spot, the Songololo territory, became an area of endemicity while the region was being colonized by Belgium (1880s). We furthermore identified temporal parallels between the observed past population fluxes of M. ulcerans from the Songololo territory and the timing of health policy changes toward control of the Buruli ulcer epidemic in that region. These findings suggest that an intervention based on detecting and treating human cases in an area of endemicity might be sufficient to break disease transmission chains, irrespective of other reservoirs of the bacterium. IMPORTANCE Buruli ulcer is a destructive skin and soft tissue infection caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans. The disease is characterized by progressive skin ulceration, which can lead to permanent disfigurement and long-term disability. Currently, the major hurdles facing disease control are incomplete understandings of both the mode of transmission and environmental reservoirs of M. ulcerans. As decades of spasmodic environmental sampling surveys have not brought us much closer to overcoming these hurdles, the Buruli ulcer research community has recently switched to using comparative genomics. The significance of our research is in how we used both temporal associations and the study of the mycobacterial demographic history to estimate the contribution of humans as a reservoir in Buruli ulcer transmission. Our approach shows that it might be possible to use bacterial population genomics to assess the impact of health interventions, providing valuable feedback for managers of disease control programs in areas where health surveillance infrastructure is poor.

The diet and breeding patterns of Mastomys natalensis in semi-arid areas of Isimani division, Iringa region, Tanzania were investigated in maize fields and fallow land. The aim was to investigate the influence of diet on breeding patterns of M. natalensis. Removal trapping was used to capture rodents and analyse diet categories while Capture-mark-release trapping was used to investigate breeding patterns of female M. natalensis. Mastomys natalensis comprised 94% of the total capture, and the remaining 6% comprised of six other species. Statistical analysis of food preferences indicated that both vegetative materials and seeds were significantly higher in the overall diet of M. natalensis compared with other food materials. Significant differences in the proportions of vegetative materials and seeds were found between seasons (dry, wet), but not between habitats (fallow, maize). There was a clear seasonal pattern in the proportion of reproductively active females with peaks in April and troughs in October. The proportion of vegetative materials was highest during the wet season and correlated positively with reproductive activity, suggesting that vegetative materials contain certain compounds (e.g. 6-MBOA) that trigger reproductive activity in M. natalensis. The breeding activity of M. natalensis in semi-arid areas might, thus, be reduced by limiting access to fresh vegetative food (e.g. young sprouting grass).

Wildlife attacks on humans and economic losses often result in reduced support of local communities for wildlife conservation. Information on spatial and temporal patterns of such losses in the highly affected areas contribute in designing and implementing effective mitigation measures. We analyzed the loss of humans, livestock and property caused by wildlife during 1998 to 2016, using victim family's reports to Chitwan National Park authorities and Buffer Zone User Committees. A total of 4,014 incidents were recorded including attacks on humans, livestock depredation, property damage and crop raiding caused by 12 wildlife species. In total >400,000 US dollar was paid to the victim families as a relief over the whole period. Most of the attacks on humans were caused by rhino, sloth bear, tiger, elephant, wild boar and leopard. A significantly higher number of conflict incidents caused by rhino and elephant were observed during full moon periods. An increase in the wildlife population did not coincide with an equal rise in conflict incidents reported. Underprivileged ethnic communities were attacked by wildlife more frequently than expected. Number of attacks on humans by carnivores and herbivores did not differ significantly. An insignificant decreasing trend of wildlife attacks on humans and livestock was observed with significant variation over the years. Tiger and leopard caused >90% of livestock depredation. Tigers killed both large (cattle and buffalo) and medium sized (goat, sheep, pig) livestock but leopard mostly killed medium sized livestock. Most (87%) of the livestock killing during 2012-2016 occurred within the stall but close (

Many emerging infections are RNA virus spillovers from animal reservoirs. Reservoir identification is necessary for predicting the geographic extent of infection risk, but rarely are taxonomic levels below the animal species considered as reservoir, and only key circumstances in nature and methodology allow intrinsic virus-host associations to be distinguished from simple geographic (co-)isolation. We sampled and genetically characterized in detail a contact zone of two subtaxa of the rodent Mastomys natalensis in Tanzania. We find two distinct arenaviruses, Gairo and Morogoro virus, each spatially confined to a single M. natalensis subtaxon, only co-occurring at the contact zone's centre. Inter-subtaxon hybridization at this centre and a continuum of quality habitat for M. natalensis show that both viruses have the ecological opportunity to spread into the other substaxon's range, but do not, strongly suggesting host-intrinsic barriers. Such barriers could explain why human cases of another M. natalensis-borne arenavirus, Lassa virus, are limited to West Africa.

Rodent pests are especially problematic in terms of agriculture and public health since they can inflict considerable economic damage associated with their abundance, diversity, generalist feeding habits and high reproductive rates. To quantify rodent pest impacts and identify trends in rodent pest research impacting on small-holder agriculture in the Afro-Malagasy region we did a systematic review of research outputs from 1910 to 2015, by developing an a priori defined set of criteria to allow for replication of the review process. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We reviewed 162 publications, and while rodent pest research was spatially distributed across Africa (32 countries, including Madagascar), there was a disparity in number of studies per country with research biased towards four countries (Tanzania [25%], Nigeria [9%], Ethiopia [9%], Kenya [8%]) accounting for 51% of all rodent pest research in the Afro-Malagasy region. There was a disparity in the research themes addressed by Tanzanian publications compared to publications from the rest of the Afro-Malagasy region where research in Tanzania had a much more applied focus (50%) compared to a more basic research approach (92%) in the rest of the Afro-Malagasy region. We found that pest rodents have a significant negative effect on the Afro-Malagasy small-holder farming communities. Crop losses varied between cropping stages, storage and crops and the highest losses occurred during early cropping stages (46% median loss during seedling stage) and the mature stage (15% median loss). There was a scarcity of studies investigating the effectiveness of various management actions on rodent pest damage and population abundance. Our analysis highlights that there are inadequate empirical studies focused on developing sustainable control methods for rodent pests and rodent pests in the Africa-Malagasy context is generally ignored as a research topic.

Models of disease transmission in a population with changing densities must assume a relation between infectious contacts and density. Typically, a choice is made between a constant (frequency-dependence) and a linear (density-dependence) contact–density function, but it is becoming increasingly clear that intermediate, nonlinear functions are more realistic. It is currently not clear, however, what the exact consequences would be of different contact–density functions in fluctuating populations. By combining field data on rodent host (Mastomys natalensis) demography, experimentally derived contact–density data, and laboratory and field data on Morogoro virus infection dynamics, we explored the effects of different contact–density function shapes on transmission dynamics and invasion/persistence. While invasion and persistence were clearly affected by the shape of the function, the effects on outbreak characteristics such as infection prevalence and seroprevalence were less obvious. This means that it may be difficult to distinguish between the different shapes based on how well models fit to real data. The shape of the transmission–density function should therefore be chosen with care, and is ideally based on existing information such as a previously quantified contact– or transmission–density relationship or the underlying biology of the host species in relation to the infectious agent.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0174554.].

To assess the risk of (zoonotic) disease transmission in developing countries, decision makers generally rely on distribution estimates of animals from survey records or projections of historical enumeration results. Given the high cost of large-scale surveys, the sample size is often restricted and the accuracy of estimates is therefore low, especially when spatial high-resolution is applied. This study explores possibilities of improving the accuracy of livestock distribution maps without additional samples using spatial modelling based on regression tree forest models, developed using subsets of the Uganda 2008 Livestock Census data, and several covariates. The accuracy of these spatial models as well as the accuracy of an ensemble of a spatial model and direct estimate was compared to direct estimates and “true” livestock figures based on the entire dataset. The new approach is shown to effectively increase the livestock estimate accuracy (median relative error decrease of 0.166-0.037 for total sample sizes of 80-1,600 animals, respectively). This outcome suggests that the accuracy levels obtained with direct estimates can indeed be achieved with lower sample sizes and the multimodel approach presented here, indicating a more efficient use of financial resources.

We investigated synanthropic small mammals in the Ethiopian Highlands as potential reservoirs for human pathogens and found that 2 rodent species, the Ethiopian white-footed mouse and Awash multimammate mouse, are carriers of novel Mobala virus strains. The white-footed mouse also carries a novel hantavirus, the second Murinae-associated hantavirus found in Africa.

Diseases of humans and wildlife are typically tracked and studied through incidence, the number of new infections per time unit. Estimating incidence is not without difficulties, as asymptomatic infections, low sampling intervals and low sample sizes can introduce large estimation errors. After infection, biomarkers such as antibodies or pathogens often change predictably over time, and this temporal pattern can contain information about the time since infection that could improve incidence estimation. Antibody level and avidity have been used to estimate time since infection and to recreate incidence, but the errors on these estimates using currently existing methods are generally large. Using a semi-parametric model in a Bayesian framework, we introduce a method that allows the use of multiple sources of information (such as antibody level, pathogen presence in different organs, individual age, season) for estimating individual time since infection. When sufficient background data are available, this method can greatly improve incidence estimation, which we show using arenavirus infection in multimammate mice as a test case. The method performs well, especially compared to the situation in which seroconversion events between sampling sessions are the main data source. The possibility to implement several sources of information allows the use of data that are in many cases already available, which means that existing incidence data can be improved without the need for additional sampling efforts or laboratory assays.

Animal distribution maps serve many purposes such as estimating transmission risk of zoonotic pathogens to both animals and humans. The reliability and usability of such maps is highly dependent on the quality of the input data. However, decisions on how to perform livestock surveys are often based on previous work without considering possible consequences. A better understanding of the impact of using different sample designs and processing steps on the accuracy of livestock distribution estimates was acquired through iterative experiments using detailed survey. The importance of sample size, sample design and aggregation is demonstrated and spatial interpolation is presented as a potential way to improve cattle number estimates. As expected, results show that an increasing sample size increased the precision of cattle number estimates but these improvements were mainly seen when the initial sample size was relatively low (e.g. a median relative error decrease of 0.04% per sampled parish for sample sizes below 500 parishes). For higher sample sizes, the added value of further increasing the number of samples declined rapidly (e.g. a median relative error decrease of 0.01% per sampled parish for sample sizes above 500 parishes. When a two-stage stratified sample design was applied to yield more evenly distributed samples, accuracy levels were higher for low sample densities and stabilised at lower sample sizes compared to one-stage stratified sampling. Aggregating the resulting cattle number estimates yielded significantly more accurate results because of averaging under- and over-estimates (e.g. when aggregating cattle number estimates from subcounty to district level, P

The burden of leptospirosis in humans and animals in Africa is higher than that reported from other parts of the world. However, the disease is not routinely diagnosed in the continent. One of major factors limiting diagnosis is the poor availability of live isolates of locally circulating Leptospira serovars for inclusion in the antigen panel of the gold standard microscopic agglutination test (MAT) for detecting antibodies against leptospirosis. To gain insight in Leptospira serovars and their natural hosts occurring in Tanzania, concomitantly enabling the improvement of the MAT by inclusion of fresh local isolates, a total of 52 Leptospira isolates were obtained from fresh urine and kidney homogenates, collected between 1996 and 2006 from small mammals, cattle and pigs. Isolates were identified by serogrouping, cross agglutination absorption test (CAAT), and molecular typing. Common Leptospira serovars with their respective animal hosts were: Sokoine (cattle and rodents); Kenya (rodents and shrews); Mwogolo (rodents); Lora (rodents); Qunjian (rodent); serogroup Grippotyphosa (cattle); and an unknown serogroup from pigs. Inclusion of local serovars particularly serovar Sokoine in MAT revealed a 10-fold increase in leptospirosis prevalence in Tanzania from 1.9% to 16.9% in rodents and 0.26% to 10.75% in humans. This indicates that local serovars are useful for diagnosis of human and animal leptospirosis in Tanzania and other African countries.

To determine the specificity of Morogoro virus for its reservoir host, we studied its host range and genetic diversity in Tanzania. We found that 2 rodent species other than Mastomys natalensis mice carry arenaviruses. Analysis of 340 nt of the viral RNA polymerase gene showed sympatric occurrence of 3 distinct arenaviruses.

The pattern of plague endemicity in Tanzania is characterized by continuous re-appearance of the disease in some locations, while in other neighbouring villages the disease has never or seldom been observed. To understand the reasons for this pattern, we studied small mammals and fleas species composition, diversity and relative abundances in two plague-endemic and two plague-free locations. We asked (a) whether fleas more abundant in plague-endemic locations differ in their characteristic abundance and the degree of their host specificity from fleas most abundant in plague-free locations and (b) whether hosts more abundant in plague-endemic locations differ in the diversity of their flea assemblages from hosts most abundant in plague-free locations. We characterized (a) host species by species richness and degree of taxonomic relatedness of its flea assemblages and (b) each flea species by its mean abundance and size, and degree of taxonomic relatedness of its host spectrum and compared their relative abundances between locations. No significant difference between plague-endemic and plague-free locations in either host density or any variable related to flea abundance or diversity was found. However, there was marginally significant effect of taxonomic distinctness of a flea assemblage harboured by a host on its probability to be more abundant in either plague-endemic or plague-free locations. Furthermore, hosts more abundant in plague-endemic locations tended to harbour closely-related fleas. Finally, while opportunistic and specialist fleas were equally distributed in both sets of locations, fleas exploiting distantly-related hosts were found mainly in plague-free locations during the rainy season. We suggest that the observed patterns might arise due to seasonal and spatial differences in local microclimatic conditions and landscape connectivity[Current Zoology 55(3):199–211, 2009].

To determine reservoir hosts for Marburg virus (MARV), we examined the fauna of a mine in northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. The mine was associated with a protracted outbreak of Marburg hemorrhagic fever during 1998–2000. We found MARV nucleic acid in 12 bats, comprising 3.0%–3.6% of 2 species of insectivorous bat and 1 species of fruit bat. We found antibody to the virus in the serum of 9.7% of 1 of the insectivorous species and in 20.5% of the fruit bat species, but attempts to isolate virus were unsuccessful.