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Beef markets are highly seasonal, thinly traded, and extremely concentrated. The combination of these factors limits the effectiveness of cattle markets to achieve transformation impacts on rural poverty reduction.

Conservation Agriculture (CA) has been actively promoted actively since the early 1990s among Zambian smallholder farmers as a practice that helps improve crop productivity, improve soil fertility, and mitigate against low and/or variable rainfall. However, nationwide survey data show that adoption rates by Zambian smallholder farmers have remained low, while dis-adoption is widespread despite years of promotion. Several empirical studies have investigated the determinants of adoption, dis-adoption, and non-adoption of CA with the focus being on human capital assets, farm assets, institutional factors, risks and economic factors, and climatic conditions.

Recent significant agricultural growth without rural poverty reduction in Zambia is causing concern to policy makers, development specialists, and other sector stakeholders. It is generally agreed that agricultural growth is the most powerful tool out of poverty for developing countries where the majority of the population is in agriculture. Zambia’s policy focus since the pre- and post-independence period has been on a single crop, maize, for which it has in the past decade spent over 60% of the annual public expenditure in the sector through maize input and output subsidies.

We explore the determinants of land titling by smallholder farmers in Zambia, and evaluate the impacts of titling on land productivity investments. We examine plot-level outcomes, and test for gendered differences in titling impacts. We find generally positive impacts of titling on investments, including strong gender-specific pathways of impact. Although female-headed households are less likely to make investments than male-headed households, female title holders are significantly more likely to make investments than male title holders (at least for labor intensive investments). We posit that these results are related to the systematically weaker rights of women in customary tenure systems, under which the security-enhancement of formal land title plays a relatively greater role in incentivizing long-term farm investments. Our results suggest the importance of facilitating access to titling mechanisms (and other tenure security mechanisms) by female farmers.

Rural land titling has stronger impacts on farm investments for female title-holders than for male title-holders. This effect is particularly pronounced for investments which are less capital-intensive. The gendered impacts of smallholder ownership of land titles may have to do with systematic differences in tenure security under traditional systems. Policies and programmes aimed at encouraging female access to land titles can improve the economic impact of agricultural land titling through increases in productivity and land productivity enhancing investments.

We examine smallholder participation in horticultural markets in Zambia, with two main questions in mind: 1) who participates in horticultural markets? and 2) how does participation affect household income and other welfare outcomes? To control for self-selection bias in the estimation of impacts, we used an endogenous switching framework on nationwide representative data over two agricultural seasons pooled, but controlling for district-level fixed effects. We found that participation is associated with labour availability, farm size, lagged productive assets, social capital through blood kinship links to the chief or headman, level of community participation in the government’s input subsidy programme, and high rainfall variability measured by its coefficient of variation. Participation significantly increased income by 285% overall, increasing to over 300% for femaleheaded households, those cultivating less than one hectare and the extremely poor. These findings provide an empirical foundation to support Zambian policy-makers’ crop-diversification and poverty-reduction agricultural policy objectives.

Rapid urbanization and population expansion, coupled with sustained income growth and the emergence of an urban African middle class are triggering an increase in the consumption of animal protein in Zambia. The sustained increase in the consumption of animal proteins creates a host of new development opportunities to synergistically link small-scale livestock producers into economic growth processes from which they have largely been excluded.

Despite Zambia’s sustained and fairly robust agricultural growth since 2000, rural poverty levels have remained at about 80% over the past 15 years. Because over 70% of Zambia’s agricultural households are small-scale farmers cultivating less than two hectares of land, they must effectively contribute to agricultural growth if the process of growth is to be broadly based in Zambia.

Economists have long held that broad-based agricultural growth is the most powerful source of poverty reduction in developing countries where most of the rural population is engaged in agriculture (Johnston and Mellor 1961; Mellor 1974; Lipton 2006). However, in Zambia’s case, despite sustained and fairly robust agricultural growth since 2000, rural poverty levels have remained at about 80% over the past 15 years. This indicates that productivity in the agricultural sector needs to be increased, especially considering that no country, apart from the island economies of Singapore and Hong Kong, has been able to sustain rapid transition out of poverty without raising the productivity in its agricultural sector.

Although a majority of Zambians work in agriculture, only a small minority of smallholders succeed in transitioning to high-productivity, high-value commercial agriculture. Only 20% of cotton farmers and less than 5% of maize and horticulture farmers succeed as top-tier commercial growers (Table 1). By tracing the long-term agricultural trajectories of successful commercial cotton, maize and horticulture farmers, this study identifies two broad agricultural pathways out of poverty. The low road, exemplified by cotton production, involves a two-generation transition via low-value but with well-structured markets. The more restrictive high road, epitomized by horticulture production, offers a steeper ascent, enabling prosperity within a single generation, but requires commensurately higher levels of financing, management and risk. Personal characteristics that define successful commercial smallholders include: • strict discipline; • treatment of farming as a business; • good management of crop production, labor and finances; • a strong propensity to save; and • willingness to invest in their children’s education. Key institutions affecting smallholder performance include: • management and marketing support provided by the cotton companies to their contract farmers; • land allocation systems, particularly those permitting land consolidation in communal areas and smallholder transitions to farm blocks in state lands; • savings systems (both financial and livestock-based) that permit successful smallholders to rebound from period shocks.

This paper traces the trajectories of successful commercial smallholders operating under differing sets of market institutions. Analysis focuses on maize, cotton and horticulture, three widely marketed crops with strikingly different market institutions. Maize receives intensive government input and marketing support. In contrast, cotton relies primarily on private contract farming schemes, while horticulture enjoys no large-scale institutional support from either the public or private sectors. Using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, the analysis aims to identify personal characteristics and institutional factors that enable smallholder transitions to high-productivity commercial agriculture. The study concludes that only a small minority of Zambian smallholder farmers succeed in transitioning to high-productivity, high-volume commercial agriculture. Only about 20% of cotton farmers and less than 5% of maize and horticulture farmers succeed as top-tier commercial growers. By tracing the long-term agricultural trajectories of successful commercial smallholders, the paper identifies two broad agricultural pathways out of poverty. The low road, exemplified by cotton production, involves a two-generation transition via low-value but with well-structured markets. The more restrictive high road, epitomized by horticulture production, offers a steeper ascent, enabling prosperity within a single generation, but requires commensurately higher levels of financing, management and risk.

Rapid urbanization in Zambia means that increasingly heavy demands are being placed on urban food marketing systems. Investment in these systems has been woefully inadequate for many decades, creating supply bottlenecks and health hazards that work against the interests of both farmers and consumers. Understanding urban food expenditure patterns is a first step in addressing these problems. The Food Security Research Project (FSRP) which is now the Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI) has conducted considerable work on urban consumption patterns of stables and fresh produce as part of on-going research and outreach work in the respective value chains1. However, no work has yet been done on livestock products and thus this study seeks to understand urban consumption and purchasing patterns of livestock products and how these vary by income level and across key cities of the country.

This paper traces the trajectories of successful commercial smallholders operating under differing sets of market institutions. Analysis focuses on maize, cotton, and horticulture, three widely marketed crops with strikingly different market institutions. Maize receives intensive government input and marketing support. In contrast, cotton relies primarily on private contract farming schemes, while horticulture enjoys no large-scale institutional support from either the public or private sectors. Using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, the analysis aims to identify personal characteristics and institutional factors that enable smallholder transitions to high-productivity commercial agriculture.

Though Zambia has considerable agricultural potential, the sector’s contribution to growth and poverty reduction has been limited. The sector remains one of the most important employers of labour and remains the main source of livelihood for most rural households in Zambia. Thus key development challenge facing Zambian agriculture over the past two decades has been how it can effectively contribute to poverty reduction and broad-based economic growth. Agricultural commercialisation and surplus production, as revealed by nationally representative farm surveys, in the country has remained concentrated with only about 5% of Zambia’s small- and medium-scale farmers produce half of the marketed surplus. Meanwhile at least half of the smallholder farms sell little or no crops and hence derive virtually no cash income from agriculture.

Livestock products and fish form an important component of urban consumers’ diet accounting for about one third of the total monthly budgetary expenditure on food. The budgetary share of livestock products increases with affluence or household income while the opposite is true for fish; 2) The informal market sector plays a significant role in supplying low priced meat to poor urban households with a market share only second to butcheries. Its market share is highest with regard to chicken and other poultry, and fish. Purchases from this sector tend to be small and more frequent. The middle and high income households are 10% and 15% respectively less likely to purchase fresh livestock products from the informal sector

This technical compendium was developed to serve two interrelated purposes: 1.To assist in the development of USAID Zambia’s Feed the Future (FtF) strategy by providing a broad empirical analysis of the current conditions and historical trends shaping Zambia’s agricultural and food sector; and 2. To serve as a technical reference for organizations tasked with designing and implementing programs associated with FtF.

Many agricultural policy discussions in Zambia revolve around the cost of producing maize. Despite the importance of having accurate estimates of production costs, smallholders’ cost of maize production in Zambia remain poorly understood. Various estimates are provided by interested parties, but these are rarely based on representative farm surveys that take into account the variations in agro-ecological conditions, input intensities, and rainfall, which can profoundly affect maize production costs.

Rapid growth in urban populations and renewed growth in per capita incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are creating major opportunities for local farmers by driving rapid growth in domestic market demand for food. At the same time, these trends plus rising income are putting enormous stress on the supply chains that these farmers rely on to respond to this increasing demand: demand for marketed food is likely to grow more than 5% per year on the continent, doubling marketed volumes in 12-14 years. Currently, fresh produce marketing systems are the biggest users of public marketing infrastructure, and have been most severely affected by the lack of investment in these systems across much of the continent. This lack of investment has led to an exploding informal marketing sector, rising concerns about congestion and hygiene, and few if any comprehensive programs to actively link farmers to these markets.

Key findings regarding the structure of trade for tomato, rape, and onion into Lusaka are (a) regional trade is an important part of Zambia’s fresh produce system, (b) supply chains for tomato, rape, and onion are short, (c) the role of the modern market system is very small, and (d) the role of urban agriculture in supplying Lusaka markets for these vegetables is also small, though it is meaningful in the case of rape. Main policy implications from this and related work are that (a) investments and policies to promote regional trade are relevant for the horticultural sector, not just food staples, (b) the traditional market system needs improved hard infrastructure linked to more collaborative public/private management models and improved coordination in the supply chains, and (c) more programmatic emphasis should be placed on helping existing traders scale-up and gain better access to information to do their job more effectively.

Brokers are agents who arrange sales without taking ownership of the commodity, earning their money on a commission. Brokers are a common but often controversial presence in wholesale markets of East and Southern Africa. Efficient brokering can be beneficial by matching buyers and sellers more effectively than if each had to search independently for someone to transact with. Yet buyers and sellers can be harmed if brokers are able to behave in uncompetitive, collusive, or unethical ways. In Soweto market of Lusaka, common complaints lodged by sellers are that brokers force sellers to use them by threatening the security of the sellers’ produce, and that the brokers add “hidden” commissions when selling a farmer or trader’s produce. This policy brief explores the role of brokers in the marketing of fresh produce in Soweto Market. It concludes that, while brokers appear to provide some valued service to some sellers, the chaotic nature of the market and the lack of any regulatory and enforcement structure leads to questionable broker behaviour including charging of hidden commissions. As government and city officials grapple with how to improve fresh produce wholesaling, it is imperative that they focus not just on physical infrastructure but also on the governance, regulatory, and enforcement structures without which new market places will be of little use.

Daily quantities of tomato, rape and onion entering Soweto market in Lusaka fluctuate dramatically. The market does a remarkable job of moderating the impact on prices of these unstable quantities, through stabilizing mechanisms such as short-term storage of tomato and rape by traders and consumers, longer-term storage of onion by traders, direct sourcing of rape from farm areas by retail traders, and exportation of tomato and onion outside Lusaka. Yet even with these stabilizing mechanisms, wholesale prices are highly variable, with negative effects on farmers and consumers. Reducing variability requires investments in four areas: (a) improved control of production environments by farmers through irrigation, better access to inputs and greater agronomic knowledge, (b) improved vertical flow of information from farmers to traders to brokers to retailers, (c) a regulatory framework for broker activity to improve trust and information flow between brokers and sellers, and (d) improved market infrastructure.

After a burst of enthusiasm through the middle part of this decade regarding the supermarket revolution, there now exists a broad consensus that this phenomenon is likely to proceed much more slowly than once thought in Sub-Saharan Africa. This is especially true in fresh produce supply chains, where both the promise and the perils of supermarket expansion have received greatest attention. In nearly the entire continent, the so-called traditional marketing sector – open air markets, dispersed informal vendors, and traditional shops – is expected to play a dominant role in fresh produce marketing for several decades. If true, this finding has profound policy implications. Specifically, it suggests that private investment in modern, integrated supply chains cannot be relied upon to solve the multitude of problems that increasingly plague these traditional production and marketing systems over a time frame acceptable to most policy makers and donors. Public engagement, preferably through meaningful public-private partnerships and an accompanying re-definition of public and private roles, will be central to improving these systems. This paper first reviews the evolution of thinking on the supermarket revolution in Africa and presents empirical evidence from Kenya and Zambia. It then lays out a set of stylized facts and key gaps in knowledge regarding traditional fresh produce production and marketing sectors on the continent, and closes by outlining priorities for research and for public and private investment to modernize these systems in the absence of rapid supermarket takeover.

Replaced with revised version of paper 06/16/10.

The purpose of this paper is to begin generating the empirical information needed to launch a process of stakeholder consultation regarding the key challenges facing the country’s horticultural sector. The paper is based on a rapid appraisal of the sector meant to provide a broad overview; FSRP’s hope is that stakeholder input will help identify a more focused set of applied research dealing with specific issues. The paper proceeds as follows: the rest of this chapter presents the data and methods used in the research; chapter two uses national rural household survey data to characterize horticultural marketing patterns in the smallholder sector; chapter three presents results of the rapid appraisal, focusing on large scale farmers, “first sellers” in the Soweto wholesale market of Lusaka, retail traders in Lusaka and Ndola, and shoppers from a range of retail outlets in both cities; chapter four concludes with a discussion of policy and program issues.

The proportion of smallholder households selling horticultural produce is very low suggesting that new demand points could enjoy substantial supply response if they link effectively to the smallholder sector. The small-scale traditional marketing system continues to dominate fresh produce flows in the country. Prices for consumers in this system are much lower, and quality is comparable and sometimes superior to supermarkets. Yet these markets suffer from serious structural problems due to a lack of public investment and little collaboration between public officials and traders in market management. The Urban Markets Development Program represents a major and impressive effort to improve wholesale and retail markets in the country, but has run into problems as legislative reform has stalled. In addition, UMDP was not designed to address key issues of improved linkages between rural farmers and urban markets. These need to be addressed with improved market information and marketing extension. Zambia’s horticultural sector operates in a regional market, exporting and importing every year. Understanding and quantifying this trade will be the first step in ensuring that policies and programs are conducive to continued high rates of growth. Major new supermarket outlets are in the market to stay, and their effects on smallholder farmers and the traditional marketing system need to be better understood. Where appropriate, programs to facilitate direct marketing by smallholders to these chains should be supported, but should not distract from an overall focus on improving urban wholesale and retail markets and linking these more effectively to farmers.

Livestock products and fish form an important component of urban consumers’ diet accounting for about one third of the total monthly budgetary expenditure on food. The budgetary share of livestock products increases with affluence or household income while the opposite is true for fish; 2) The informal market sector plays a significant role in supplying low priced meat to poor urban households with a market share only second to butcheries. Its market share is highest with regard to chicken and other poultry, and fish. Purchases from this sector tend to be small and more frequent. The middle and high income households are 10% and 15% respectively less likely to purchase fresh livestock products from the informal sector