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2. THE DERIVATION OF PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR THE EVALUATION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS.

Author

Hillier, Fredrick S.

Subjects
INVESTMENT analysis, DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory), RISK assessment, RISK management in business, FINANCIAL risk management, INTERNAL rate of return, PROBABILITY theory, MATHEMATICAL models, DECISION making, EXPECTED utility, MANAGEMENT
Abstract

The amount of risk involved is often one of the important considerations in the evaluation of proposed investments. This paper is concerned with the derivation of the type of explicit, well-defined, and comprehensive information that is essential for an accurate appraisal of a risky investment. It is shown how, under certain assumptions, such information in the form of the probability distribution of the present worth, annual cost, or internal rate of return of the proposed investment can be derived. The derivation and use of this information is then illustrated by an example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
1963
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