Search

Your search keyword '"Ho, Chang-Hoi"' showing total 575 results
Start Over Author "Ho, Chang-Hoi"
575 results on '"Ho, Chang-Hoi"'

43. Development of Interpretable Probability Ellipse in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts Using Multiple Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems.

Author

Yoo, Seungwoo and Ho, Chang‐Hoi

Subjects
TROPICAL cyclones, CYCLONE tracking, CYCLONE forecasting, FORECASTING, PROBABILITY theory, LEAD time (Supply chain management)
Abstract

Most tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting centers have implemented a probabilistic circle to represent track uncertainty at a specified lead time. Recent studies suggest that probability ellipses constructed from ensemble prediction systems can convey the anisotropy of track predictability. In this study, a new probability ellipse model is developed to interpret the extent of forward speed and heading uncertainties in ensemble forecasts by selecting an equal proportion of members in the along‐ and cross‐track directions. This method is validated using the 2019–2021 western North Pacific (WNP) TC track forecasts from the ensemble predictions of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts, the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and the Korea Meteorological Administration. When the proportion of ensemble members in the ellipse is set to 70%, more than one‐half (50.0%–73.6%) of the forecasts, depending on the lead time, indicate reduced area compared with that of the circle. The mean areas of the probability ellipses are 4.9%, 7.0%, 10.0%, and 11.5% smaller than those of the circle in 48‐, 72‐, 96‐, and 120‐hr forecasts, respectively. The forward speed shows greater uncertainty than the heading, as evidenced by the along‐track radii being larger than the cross‐track counterpart in ∼60% of the samples, regardless of the lead time. In addition, the regional distribution of the along‐track/cross‐track ratio in the probability ellipses can explain the dominant direction of the track error in a particular location. The proposed probability ellipse shows potential for application in operational TC track predictions. Plain Language Summary: Operational tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting centers usually represent the uncertainty of a TC track forecast with a circle, namely the probabilistic circle. In this paper, the circle is generalized to a probability ellipse directly using the output of ensemble prediction systems. The key to the new ellipse is that an equal proportion of ensemble members are selected in the along‐ and cross‐track directions to determine the two elliptical radii. This probability ellipse is smaller in size than the circle when representing the same level of uncertainty. The eccentric property of the probability ellipse allows for easy interpretation of the direction with larger ensemble‐forecast uncertainty. Such results can aid in operational TC track predictions and subsequent implementation of preventive measures. Key Points: The proposed probability ellipse explicitly shows the uncertainty of ensemble forecast tracks in the along‐ and cross‐track directionsThe probability ellipse is capable of explaining the dominant direction of error in track forecastsRegional distributions of uncertainty and error resemble each other in terms of magnitude and direction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
Full Text
View/download PDF

Catalog

Books, media, physical & digital resources
See catalog results