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2. A global overview of marine heatwaves in a changing climate

Author

Capotondi, Antonietta, Rodrigues, Regina R., Sen Gupta, Alex, Benthuysen, Jessica A., Deser, Clara, Frölicher, Thomas L., Lovenduski, Nicole S., Amaya, Dillon J., Le Grix, Natacha, Xu, Tongtong, Hermes, Juliet, Holbrook, Neil J., Martinez-Villalobos, Cristian, Masina, Simona, Roxy, Mathew Koll, Schaeffer, Amandine, Schlegel, Robert W., Smith, Kathryn E., and Wang, Chunzai

Published
2024
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7. Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability

Author

Capotondi, Antonietta, McGregor, Shayne, McPhaden, Michael J., Cravatte, Sophie, Holbrook, Neil J., Imada, Yukiko, Sanchez, Sara C., Sprintall, Janet, Stuecker, Malte F., Ummenhofer, Caroline C., Zeller, Mathias, Farneti, Riccardo, Graffino, Giorgio, Hu, Shijian, Karnauskas, Kristopher B., Kosaka, Yu, Kucharski, Fred, Mayer, Michael, Qiu, Bo, Santoso, Agus, Taschetto, Andréa S., Wang, Fan, Zhang, Xuebin, Holmes, Ryan M., Luo, Jing-Jia, Maher, Nicola, Martinez-Villalobos, Cristian, Meehl, Gerald A., Naha, Rajashree, Schneider, Niklas, Stevenson, Samantha, Sullivan, Arnold, van Rensch, Peter, and Xu, Tongtong

Published
2023
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14. EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2016 : From A Climate Perspective

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Christidi, Nikolaos, Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., Schreck, Carl J., Stott, Peter A., Webb, Robert S., Werner, Francisco E., Knutson, Thomas R., Kam, Jonghun, Zeng, Fanrong, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Brainard, Russell E., Oliver, Thomas, McPhaden, Michael J., Cohen, Anne, Venegas, Robert o, Heenan, Adel, Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo, Rotjan, Randi, Mangubhai, Sangeeta, Flint, Elizabeth, Hunter, Susan A., Oliver, Eric C. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Holbrook, Neil J., Bindoff, Nathaniel L., Tett, Simon F. B., Falk, Alexander, Rogers, Megan, Spuler, Fiona, Turner, Calum, Wainwright, Joshua, Dimdore-Miles, Oscar, Knight, Sam, Freychet, Nicolas, Mineter, Michael J., Lehmann, Caroline E. R., Martins, Eduardo S. P. R., Coelho, Caio A. S., Haarsma, Rein, Otto, Friederike E. L., King, Andrew D., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Kew, Sarah, Philip, Sjoukje, Vasconcelos, Francisco C., Cullen, Heidi, Jézéquel, Aglaé, Yiou, Pascal, Radanovics, Sabine, Vautard, Robert, Sippel, Sebastian, El-Madany, Tarek S., Migliavacca, Mirco, Mahecha, Miguel D., Carrara, Arnaud, Flach, Milan, Kaminski, Thomas, Otto, Friederike E. L., Thonicke, Kirsten, Vossbeck, Michael, Reichstein, Markus, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Linying, Wood, Eric F., Funk, Chris, Davenport, Frank, Harrison, Laura, Magadzire, Tamuka, Galu, Gideon, Artan, Guleid A., Shukla, Shraddhanand, Korecha, Diriba, Indeje, Matayo, Pomposi, Catherine, Macharia, Denis, Husak, Gregory, Nsadisa, Faka Dieudonne, Imada, Yukiko, Shiogama, Hideo, Takahashi, Chiharu, Watanabe, Masahiro, Mori, Masato, Kamae, Youichi, Maeda, Shuhei, Sun, Qiaohong, Miao, Chiyuan, Zhou, Chunlüe, Wang, Kaicun, Qi, Dan, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Shanshan, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Qian, Cheng, Wang, Jun, Dong, Siyan, Yin, Hong, Burke, Claire, Ciavarella, Andrew, Dong, Buwen, Freychet, Nicolas, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., Sun, Ying, Hu, Ting, Zhang, Xuebin, Wan, Hui, Stott, Peter, Lu, Chunhui, Christidis, Nikolaos, Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan, Ciavarella, Andrew, Stott, Peter A., Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Hendon, Harry, Wang, Guomin, Lewis, Sophie C., Mallela, Jennie, Grose, Michael R., Black, Mitchell, Risbey, James S., Uhe, Peter, Hope, Pandora K., Haustein, Karsten, Mitchell, Dann, Stott, Peter A., Christidis, Nikos, Herring, Stephanie C., Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., and Schreck, Carl J.

Published
2018

15. Global Marine Heatwaves Under Different Flavors of ENSO.

Author

Gregory, Catherine H., Artana, Camila, Lama, Skylar, León‐FonFay, Dalena, Sala, Jacopo, Xiao, Fuan, Xu, Tongtong, Capotondi, Antonietta, Martinez‐Villalobos, Cristian, and Holbrook, Neil J.

Subjects
EL Nino, MARINE heatwaves, LA Nina, OCEAN temperature, HEAT waves (Meteorology)
Abstract

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have caused devasting ecological and socioeconomic impacts worldwide. Understanding the connection of regional events to large‐scale climatic drivers is key for enhancing predictability and mitigating MHW impacts. Despite the reported connection between MHWs globally and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), establishing statistically significant links between different types of ENSO events and MHWs remains challenging due to the limited duration of observational data. Here, we use 10,000 years of simulations from a Linear Inverse Model (LIM) to address this issue. Our findings reveal distinct connections between MHWs and ENSO, with diverging influences from different flavors of El Niño and La Niña events. In addition, under long‐lasting El Niño conditions, the likelihood of MHWs increases by up to 12‐fold in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. This study highlights the global connections between ENSO diversity and variations in MHW events. Plain Language Summary: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of prolonged, extremely warm ocean temperatures that have caused widespread ecological and socioeconomic impacts worldwide. The predictability of these events can be improved if we can find connections between regional events and larger climatic drivers, such as El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the positive phase of ENSO, El Niño, and its negative phase, La Niña, have been linked to MHWs in various parts of the world. However, not all El Niño and La Niña events are the same, leading to uncertainty in the relationship between ENSO and MHWs. Due to the limited duration of the observational record, a major issue arises with the lack of examples of different types of El Niño and La Niña events in observations. To overcome this challenge, we utilized 10,000 years of simulated data from a near‐global linear inverse model to generate many more samples of possible global ocean temperature configurations. We find strong differences between regional MHWs and different types of El Niño and La Niña events. In some regions, the probability of MHWs is 12 times more likely under long‐lasting El Niño events. Key Points: Robust links between global marine heatwaves and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity are established using 10,000 years of samples from a linear inverse modelMarine heatwave (MHW) intensity and frequency in the Northeast Pacific increase significantly during Central Pacific El Niño eventsMHW intensity and frequency are significantly enhanced in Western Australia during Central Pacific La Niña events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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25. Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef.

Author

Gregory, Catherine H., Holbrook, Neil J., Spillman, Claire M., and Marshall, Andrew G.

Subjects
*CORAL bleaching, *CLOUDINESS, *OCEAN temperature, *SUMMER, EL Nino, LA Nina
Abstract

Local meteorology over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) can significantly influence ocean temperatures, which in turn impacts coral ecosystems. While El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides insight into the expected synoptic states, it lacks details of anticipated sub‐seasonal weather variability at local scales. This study explores the influence of the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) on Australian tropical climate, both independently and in combination with ENSO, focusing on GBR impacts. We find that during El Niño periods, including the summer of 2009/10, faster propagating MJO patterns can disrupt background warm, dry conditions, and potentially provide cooling relief via increased cloud cover and stronger winds. In La Niña periods, such as the summer of 2021/22, the MJO tends to be prevented from passing the Maritime continent, forcing it to remain in a standing pattern in the Indian Ocean. This leads to decreased cloud cover and weaker winds over the GBR, generating warm ocean anomalies. Plain Language Summary: Bleaching is likely when tropical corals are exposed to ocean temperatures above a threshold for a prolonged period. In austral summer, tropical weather over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) can vary from hot and sunny to stormy with rain and strong winds. During El Niño, summer weather over the GBR is typically warm, still, and dry, increasing the likelihood of coral bleaching due to increased exposure to solar radiation and decreased mixing. During La Niña, tropical storms, with cooling effects through increased rainfall and cloud cover, are more typical. The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) is an eastward moving storm pattern near the equator that can also influence the background climate over the GBR. We find that the MJO can significantly influence the weather variability over the GBR, altering the expected states of El Niño and La Niña periods. Key Points: Composite maps show how the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) can change meteorological patterns on the Great Barrier ReefCluster analysis is used to show the types of MJO propagation patterns likely to occur during El Niño and La Niña periodsOcean temperature variability is discussed with El Niño/La Niña phases as the background states and the MJO as a sub‐seasonal modulator [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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28. DYNAMICS AND PREDICTABILITY OF EL NIÑO–SOUTHERN OSCILLATION : An Australian Perspective on Progress and Challenges

Author

Santoso, Agus, Hendon, Harry, Watkins, Andrew, Power, Scott, Dommenget, Dietmar, England, Matthew H., Frankcombe, Leela, Holbrook, Neil J., Holmes, Ryan, Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Luo, Jing-Jia, McGregor, Shayne, Neske, Sonja, Nguyen, Hanh, Pepler, Acacia, Rashid, Harun, Gupta, Alex Sen, Taschetto, Andréa S., Wang, Guomin, Abellán, Esteban, Sullivan, Arnold, Huguenin, Maurice F., Gamble, Felicity, and Delage, Francois

Published
2019

32. Categorizing and Naming MARINE HEATWAVES

Author

Hobday, Alistair J., Oliver, Eric C. J., Gupta, Alex Sen, Benthuysen, Jessica A., Burrows, Michael T., Donat, Markus G., Holbrook, Neil J., Moore, Pippa J., Thomsen, Mads S., Wernberg, Thomas, and Smale, Dan A.

Published
2018

36. Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwave events

Author

Sen Gupta, Alex, Thomsen, Mads, Benthuysen, Jessica A., Hobday, Alistair J., Oliver, Eric, Alexander, Lisa V., Burrows, Michael T., Donat, Markus G., Feng, Ming, Holbrook, Neil J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah, Moore, Pippa J., Rodrigues, Regina R., Scannell, Hillary A., Taschetto, Andréa S., Ummenhofer, Caroline C., Wernberg, Thomas, and Smale, Dan A.

Published
2020
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37. 9. ANTHROPOGENIC AND NATURAL INFLUENCES ON RECORD 2016 MARINE HEAT WAVES: Two of the longest and most intense marine heat waves in 2016 were up to fifty times more likely due to anthropogenic climate change

Author

Oliver, Eric C.J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Holbrook, Neil J., and Bindoff, Nathaniel L.

Subjects
Climate change -- Environmental aspects, Human-environment interactions -- Observations, Hot weather -- Causes of -- Measurement, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

Introduction. In 2016 a quarter of the ocean surface experienced either the longest or most intense marine heatwave (Hobday et al. 2016) since satellite records began in 1982. Here we [...]

Published
2018
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40. Predictability of marine heatwaves off Western Australia using a linear inverse model

Author

Wang, Yuxin, Holbrook, Neil J., Kajtar, Jules B., Wang, Yuxin, Holbrook, Neil J., and Kajtar, Jules B.

Abstract

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) off Western Australia (110°E−116°E, 22°S−32°S; hereafter, WA MHWs) can cause devastating ecological impacts, as was evidenced by the 2011 extreme event. Previous studies suggest that La Niña is the major large-scale driver of WA MHWs, while Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may also play a role. Here, we investigate historical WA MHWs and their connections to these large-scale climate modes in an ocean model (ACCESS−OM2) simulation driven by a prescribed atmosphere from JRA55−do over 1959–2018. Rather than analysing sea surface temperature, the WA MHWs and climate mode indices were characterized and investigated in vertically averaged temperature (VAT) to ~300m depth to afford the longer ocean dynamic time scales, including remote oceanic connections. We develop a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM; from 35°S−10°N, across the Indo-Pacific Ocean), to investigate the relative contributions of La Niña VAT and positive IOD VAT to the predictability of WA VAT MHWs. Using a large ensemble of CSLIM simulations, we found that ~50% of WA MHWs were preceded about 5 months by La Niña, and 30% of the MHWs by positive IOD about 20 months prior. While precursor La Niña or positive IOD, on their own, were found to correspond with increased WA MHW likelihood in the months following (~2.7 times or ~1.5 times more likely than by chance, respectively), in combination these climate mode phases were found to produce the largest enhancement in MHW likelihood (~3.2 times more likely than by chance). Additionally, we found that stronger and longer La Niña and/or positive IOD tend to lead stronger and longer WA MHWs.

Published
2023

42. A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves

Author

Hobday, Alistair J., Alexander, Lisa V., Perkins, Sarah E., Smale, Dan A., Straub, Sandra C., Oliver, Eric C.J., Benthuysen, Jessica A., Burrows, Michael T., Donat, Markus G., Feng, Ming, Holbrook, Neil J., Moore, Pippa J., Scannell, Hillary A., Sen Gupta, Alex, and Wernberg, Thomas

Published
2016
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44. A global assessment of marine heatwaves and their drivers

Author

Holbrook, Neil J., Scannell, Hillary A., Sen Gupta, Alexander, Benthuysen, Jessica A., Feng, Ming, Oliver, Eric C. J., Alexander, Lisa V., Burrows, Michael T., Donat, Markus G., Hobday, Alistair J., Moore, Pippa J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Smale, Dan A., Straub, Sandra C., and Wernberg, Thomas

Published
2019
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