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Many recent developments in network analysis have focused on multilayer networks, which one can use to encode time-dependent interactions, multiple types of interactions, and other complications that arise in complex systems. Like their monolayer counterparts, multilayer networks in applications often have mesoscale features, such as community structure. A prominent approach for inferring such structures is the employment of multilayer stochastic block models (SBMs). A common (but potentially inadequate) assumption of these models is the sampling of edges in different layers independently, conditioned on the community labels of the nodes. In this paper, we relax this assumption of independence by incorporating edge correlations into an SBM-like model. We derive maximum-likelihood estimates of the key parameters of our model, and we propose a measure of layer correlation that reflects the similarity between the connectivity patterns in different layers. Finally, we explain how to use correlated models for edge "prediction" (i.e., inference) in multilayer networks. By incorporating edge correlations, we find that prediction accuracy improves both in synthetic networks and in a temporal network of shoppers who are connected to previously purchased grocery products.

Objectives: Patients in an ICU are particularly vulnerable to sepsis. It is therefore important to detect its onset as early as possible. This study focuses on the development and validation of a new signature-based regression model, augmented with a particular choice of the handcrafted features, to identify a patient's risk of sepsis based on physiologic data streams. The model makes a positive or negative prediction of sepsis for every time interval since admission to the ICU., Design: The data were sourced from the PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2019 on the "Early Prediction of Sepsis from Clinical Data." It consisted of ICU patient data from three separate hospital systems. Algorithms were scored against a specially designed utility function that rewards early predictions in the most clinically relevant region around sepsis onset and penalizes late predictions and false positives., Setting: The work was completed as part of the PhysioNet 2019 Challenge alongside 104 other teams., Patients: PhysioNet sourced over 60,000 ICU patients with up to 40 clinical variables for each hour of a patient's ICU stay. The Sepsis-3 criteria was used to define the onset of sepsis., Interventions: None., Measurements and Main Results: The algorithm yielded a utility function score which was the first placed entry in the official phase of the challenge.

The analysis and characterization of human mobility using population-level mobility models is important for numerous applications, ranging from the estimation of commuter flows in cities to modeling trade flows between countries. However, almost all of these applications have focused on large spatial scales, which typically range between intracity scales and intercountry scales. In this paper, we investigate population-level human mobility models on a much smaller spatial scale by using them to estimate customer mobility flow between supermarket zones. We use anonymized, ordered customer-basket data to infer empirical mobility flow in supermarkets, and we apply variants of the gravity and intervening-opportunities models to fit this mobility flow and estimate the flow on unseen data. We find that a doubly-constrained gravity model and an extended radiation model (which is a type of intervening-opportunities model) can successfully estimate 65%-70% of the flow inside supermarkets. Using a gravity model as a case study, we then investigate how to reduce congestion in supermarkets using mobility models. We model each supermarket zone as a queue, and we use a gravity model to identify store layouts with low congestion, which we measure either by the maximum number of visits to a zone or by the total mean queue size. We then use a simulated-annealing algorithm to find store layouts with lower congestion than a supermarket's original layout. In these optimized store layouts, we find that popular zones are often in the perimeter of a store. Our research gives insight both into how customers move in supermarkets and into how retailers can arrange stores to reduce congestion. It also provides a case study of human mobility on small spatial scales.

Pluripotent stem cells can self-renew in culture and differentiate along all somatic lineages in vivo. While much is known about the molecular basis of pluripotency, the mechanisms of differentiation remain unclear. Here, we profile individual mouse embryonic stem cells as they progress along the neuronal lineage. We observe that cells pass from the pluripotent state to the neuronal state via an intermediate epiblast-like state. However, analysis of the rate at which cells enter and exit these observed cell states using a hidden Markov model indicates the presence of a chain of unobserved molecular states that each cell transits through stochastically in sequence. This chain of hidden states allows individual cells to record their position on the differentiation trajectory, thereby encoding a simple form of cellular memory. We suggest a statistical mechanics interpretation of these results that distinguishes between functionally distinct cellular "macrostates" and functionally similar molecular "microstates" and propose a model of stem cell differentiation as a non-Markov stochastic process., (Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Droplets splash when they impact dry, flat substrates above a critical velocity that depends on parameters such as droplet size, viscosity, and air pressure. By imaging ethanol drops impacting silicone gels of different stiffnesses, we show that substrate stiffness also affects the splashing threshold. Splashing is reduced or even eliminated: droplets on the softest substrates need over 70% more kinetic energy to splash than they do on rigid substrates. We show that this is due to energy losses caused by deformations of soft substrates during the first few microseconds of impact. We find that solids with Young's moduli ≲100  kPa reduce splashing, in agreement with simple scaling arguments. Thus, materials like soft gels and elastomers can be used as simple coatings for effective splash prevention. Soft substrates also serve as a useful system for testing splash-formation theories and sheet-ejection mechanisms, as they allow the characteristics of ejection sheets to be controlled independently of the bulk impact dynamics of droplets.

The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological, and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes ("extreme events"). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multiagent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.