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The casual pathways by which age and the CCR5-Delta32, CCR2-64I, and SDF-1 3'A alleles influence progression to AIDS is investigated. It is concluded that the age and the CCR5-Delta32 deletion and CCR2-64I mutation influence AIDS progression by affecting CD4 and HIV-1 RNA and the SDF-1 3'A allele increases the AIDS risk, but this effect is countered by its effect on CD4 and HIV-1 RNA level.

Abstract Background The evolution of plasma viral load after HIV infection has been described as reaching a setpoint, only to start rising again shortly before AIDS diagnosis. In contrast, CD4 T-cell count is considered to show a stable decrease. However, characteristics of marker evolution over time depend on the scale that is used to visualize trends. In reconsidering the setpoint theory for HIV RNA, we analyzed the evolution of CD4 T-cell count and HIV-1 RNA level from HIV seroconversion to AIDS diagnosis. Follow-up data were used from two cohort studies among homosexual men (N = 400), restricting to the period before highly active antiretroviral therapy became widely available (1984 until 1996). Individual trajectories of both markers were fitted and averaged, both from seroconversion onwards and in the four years preceding AIDS diagnosis, using a bivariate random effects model. Both markers were evaluated on a scale that is directly related to AIDS risk. Results Individuals with faster AIDS progression had higher HIV RNA level six months after seroconversion. For CD4 T-cell count, this ordering was less clearly present. However, HIV RNA level and CD4 T-cell count showed qualitatively similar evolution over time after seroconversion, also when stratified by rate of progression to AIDS. In the four years preceding AIDS diagnosis, a non-significant change in HIV RNA increase was seen, whereas a significant biphasic pattern was present for CD4 T-cell decline. Conclusion HIV RNA level has more setpoint behaviour than CD4 T-cell count as far as the level shortly after seroconversion is concerned. However, with respect to the, clinically more relevant, marker evolution over time after seroconversion, a setpoint theory holds as much for CD4 T-cell count as for HIV RNA level.

Background. The objective of this work was to assess the role of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) reservoirs in the risk of disease progression, by studying the relationship between HIV DNA level in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and progression toward acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Methods. HIV-1 DNA levels in PBMCs were determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction for 383 patients enrolled in the SEROCO Cohort Study who had experienced seroconversion and had been followed up for >8 years. We compared the predictive values of HIV DNA level, HIV RNA level, and CD4+ cell count. Results. Between 6 and 24 months after seroconversion, HIV DNA level was a major predictor of progression to AIDS independently of HIV RNA level and CD4+ T cell count (adjusted relative risk [RR] for a 1-log10 increase, 3.20 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.70-6.00]). HIV DNA level was also a major predictor of disease progression during the first 6 months after seroconversion (adjusted RR, 4.16 [95% CI, 1.70-10.21]), when HIV RNA level and CD4+ T cell count were less predictive. Thus, a combination of these 3 markers provides the best estimate of the risk of disease progression for each patient. Conclusions. Our results suggest that HIV DNA level could be a useful additional marker in clinical practice and could aid in helping to define the best time to initiate treatment for each patient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attempts to determine whether the viral receptor CCR5 delta32 deletion affected progression to certain first AIDS-defining illnesses in HIV-infected patients. Relative risk of toxoplasmosis associated with heterozygosity; Conditions progressive among the patients.