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A fully probabilistic earthquake risk model was developed for five countries in Central Asia, providing updated earthquake loss estimates with a higher level of details on all components with respect to previous studies in the region, besides having used a regionally consistent approach that on the one hand, allows direct comparisons at different disaggregation levels (e.g., Country and Oblast), and on the other hand, is aimed to facilitate initiating a policy dialogue regarding national and regional disaster risk financing and insurance applications. This earthquake risk model made use of a regional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, as well as a comprehensive exposure database on which different types of assets and sectors were included, and for which two scenarios (years 2020 and 2080) were modelled. For each type of asset, a unique vulnerability function was derived and later used for the convolution with the hazard data that allowed estimating the loss exceedance curve, at different disaggregation levels, from where other risk metrics such as the average annual loss (AAL) and specific return period losses, were obtained. The regional earthquake AAL for the 2020 exposure scenario has been estimated in around $2 Bn, being Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the countries with the highest earthquake risk levels in the region. Besides the probabilistic earthquake risk results, as-if scenarios were modelled using a pseudo-deterministic approach to assess the human and economic losses for realistic and representative earthquakes for the main cities within earthquake prone regions in the five countries within the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fully probabilistic seismic hazard model with a single domain and sufficiently accurate resolution level for national analyses has been developed, for the Caribbean and Central America, to support the design of parametric earthquake policies offered by the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Financing Facility to sovereign countries. This model provides updated earthquake hazard and risk information for 34 countries in the region, allowing to obtain detailed seismic hazard results at any location within the area of analysis. Besides a detailed zonation of subduction and crustal sources, updated seismicity and tectonic data have been utilized. Different seismicity, geometric, and rupture models have been adopted using state-of-the-art methodologies and tools. The main output of this model is a stochastic event-set, which is the hazard representation utilized not only to compute a long-term overview of the seismic hazard in the region but also to probabilistically estimate earthquake modeled losses at a national level that are used as triggers for underpinning parametric earthquake insurance. Although not of direct interest for parametric insurance purposes, this model also yields hazard maps and uniform hazard spectra for different return periods. For the operational purposes of the parametric insurance coverage, a postevent tool was developed to calculate, in near-real time, the ground-motion intensities associated with any earthquake within the region under study. This is done automatically by choosing a rupture plane from the moment tensor solution based on predefined rules while maintaining full consistency with all the assumptions made in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The predicted ground motions in the region and the vulnerability functions developed for the exposed assets are then used to estimate whether the economic losses for each affected country exceed the trigger value stated in the country-specific insurance policy conditions and whether a payout should be issued, which is typically disbursed within 14 days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]