1. Development and validation of a multifactorial nomogram to predict 48 month mortality in decompensated heart failure
- Author
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Chenlin Zhuang, Yudai Chen, Kongyan Weng, Mei Zhuang, Huizhen Yu, and Pengli Zhu
- Subjects
Nomogram ,Net benefit ,PNI ,Prognostic model ,Congestive heart failure ,Diseases of the circulatory (Cardiovascular) system ,RC666-701 - Abstract
Abstract Background and aims As the incidence of heart failure (HF) increases, the need for practical tools to evaluate the long‐term prognosis in these patients remains critical. Our study aimed to develop a 48 month prediction model for all‐cause mortality in decompensated HF patients using available clinical indicators. Methods HF patients (n = 503), 60 years or older, were divided into a training cohort (n = 402) and a validation cohort (n = 101). Data on demographics, comorbidities, laboratory results and medications were gathered. Prediction models were developed using the Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), cholinesterase (ChE) and a multifactorial nomogram incorporating clinical variables. These models were constructed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The performance of the model was assessed in terms of calibration, discrimination and clinical utility. Results The mean age was 77.11 ± 8.85 years, and 216 (42.9%) were female. The multifactorial nomogram included variables of ChE, lymphocyte count, albumin, serum creatinine and N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide (all P
- Published
- 2024
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