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1. Sustainability nexus analytics, informatics, and data (AID): Drought

Author

Huning, Laurie S., Bateni, Sayed M., Hayes, Michael, Ho, Sarah Quynh-Giang, Jayasinghe, Susantha, Kumar, Rohini, Lima, Carlos, Love, Charlotte A., Madani, Kaveh, Markonis, Yannis, Matin, Mir A., Miao, Chiyuan, Motagh, Mahdi, Naeger, Aaron, de Oliveira, Debora Yumi, Read, Laura K., Samaniego, Luis, Shokri, Nima, Shukla, Shraddhanand, Soltanian, Reza, Stefanski, Robert, Trabelsi, Fatma, Tsegai, Daniel, Vo, Linh U. C., Wanders, Niko, Wens, Marthe, Zarei, Azin, and AghaKouchak, Amir

Published
2024
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2. Asymmetric emergence of low-to-no snow in the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera

Author

Rhoades, Alan M, Hatchett, Benjamin J, Risser, Mark D, Collins, William D, Bambach, Nicolas E, Huning, Laurie S, McCrary, Rachel, Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R, Ullrich, Paul A, Wehner, Michael F, Zarzycki, Colin M, and Jones, Andrew D

Subjects
Earth Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Climate Action, CESD-Weather Extremes, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Science and Management
Abstract

Societies and ecosystems within and downstream of mountains rely on seasonal snowmelt to satisfy their water demands. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced mountain snowpacks worldwide, altering snowmelt magnitude and timing. Here the global warming level leading to widespread and persistent mountain snowpack decline, termed low-to-no snow, is estimated for the world’s most latitudinally contiguous mountain range, the American Cordillera. We show that a combination of dynamical, thermodynamical and hypsometric factors results in an asymmetric emergence of low-to-no-snow conditions within the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera. Low-to-no-snow emergence occurs approximately 20 years earlier in the southern hemisphere, at a third of the local warming level, and coincides with runoff efficiency declines (8% average) in both dry and wet years. The prevention of a low-to-no-snow future in either hemisphere requires the level of global warming to be held to, at most, +2.5 °C.

Published
2022

3. A low-to-no snow future and its impacts on water resources in the western United States

Author

Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R, Rhoades, Alan M, Hatchett, Benjamin J, Huning, Laurie S, Szinai, Julia, Tague, Christina, Nico, Peter S, Feldman, Daniel R, Jones, Andrew D, Collins, William D, and Kaatz, Laurna

Subjects
Hydrology, Earth Sciences, Climate Action, CESD-Adaptive Water Management, CESD-Watershed Science
Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is decreasing seasonal snowpacks globally, with potentially catastrophic consequences on water resources, given the long-held reliance on snowpack in water management. In this Review, we examine the changes and trickle-down impacts of snow loss in the western United States (WUS). Across the WUS, snow water equivalent declines of ~25% are expected by 2050, with losses comparable with contemporary historical trends. There is less consensus on the time horizon of snow disappearance, but model projections combined with a new low-to-no snow definition suggest ~35–60 years before low-to-no snow becomes persistent if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. Diminished and more ephemeral snowpacks that melt earlier will alter groundwater and streamflow dynamics. The direction of these changes are difficult to constrain given competing factors such as higher evapotranspiration, altered vegetation composition and changes in wildfire behaviour in a warmer world. These changes undermine conventional WUS water management practices, but through proactive implementation of soft and hard adaptation strategies, there is potential to build resilience to extreme, episodic and, eventually, persistent low-to-no snow conditions. Federal investments offer a timely opportunity to address these vulnerabilities, but they require a concerted portfolio of activities that cross historically siloed physical and disciplinary boundaries.

Published
2021

4. Global snow drought hot spots and characteristics

Author

Huning, Laurie S and AghaKouchak, Amir

Subjects
Affordable and Clean Energy, snow, drought, climate, water resources, hydrology
Abstract

Snow plays a fundamental role in global water resources, climate, and biogeochemical processes; however, no global snow drought assessments currently exist. Changes in the duration and intensity of droughts can significantly impact ecosystems, food and water security, agriculture, hydropower, and the socioeconomics of a region. We characterize the duration and intensity of snow droughts (snow water equivalent deficits) worldwide and differences in their distributions over 1980 to 2018. We find that snow droughts became more prevalent, intensified, and lengthened across the western United States (WUS). Eastern Russia, Europe, and the WUS emerged as hot spots for snow droughts, experiencing ∼2, 16, and 28% longer snow drought durations, respectively, in the latter half of 1980 to 2018. In this second half of the record, these regions exhibited a higher probability (relative to the first half of the record) of having a snow drought exceed the average intensity from the first period by 3, 4, and 15%. The Hindu Kush and Central Asia, extratropical Andes, greater Himalayas, and Patagonia, however, experienced decreases (percent changes) in the average snow drought duration (-4, -7, -8, and -16%, respectively). Although we do not attempt to separate natural and human influences with a detailed attribution analysis, we discuss some relevant physical processes (e.g., Arctic amplification and polar vortex movement) that likely contribute to observed changes in snow drought characteristics. We also demonstrate how our framework can facilitate drought monitoring and assessment by examining two snow deficits that posed large socioeconomic challenges in the WUS (2014/2015) and Afghanistan (2017/2018).

Published
2020

6. The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Author

Kreibich, Heidi, Van Loon, Anne F., Schröter, Kai, Ward, Philip J., Mazzoleni, Maurizio, Sairam, Nivedita, Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho, Agafonova, Svetlana, AghaKouchak, Amir, Aksoy, Hafzullah, Alvarez-Garreton, Camila, Aznar, Blanca, Balkhi, Laila, Barendrecht, Marlies H., Biancamaria, Sylvain, Bos-Burgering, Liduin, Bradley, Chris, Budiyono, Yus, Buytaert, Wouter, Capewell, Lucinda, Carlson, Hayley, Cavus, Yonca, Couasnon, Anaïs, Coxon, Gemma, Daliakopoulos, Ioannis, de Ruiter, Marleen C., Delus, Claire, Erfurt, Mathilde, Esposito, Giuseppe, François, Didier, Frappart, Frédéric, Freer, Jim, Frolova, Natalia, Gain, Animesh K., Grillakis, Manolis, Grima, Jordi Oriol, Guzmán, Diego A., Huning, Laurie S., Ionita, Monica, Kharlamov, Maxim, Khoi, Dao Nguyen, Kieboom, Natalie, Kireeva, Maria, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Li, Hong-Yi, LLasat, María Carmen, Macdonald, David, Mård, Johanna, Mathew-Richards, Hannah, McKenzie, Andrew, Mejia, Alfonso, Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario, Mens, Marjolein, Mobini, Shifteh, Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna, Nagavciuc, Viorica, Ngo-Duc, Thanh, Thao Nguyen Huynh, Thi, Nhi, Pham Thi Thao, Petrucci, Olga, Nguyen, Hong Quan, Quintana-Seguí, Pere, Razavi, Saman, Ridolfi, Elena, Riegel, Jannik, Sadik, Md Shibly, Savelli, Elisa, Sazonov, Alexey, Sharma, Sanjib, Sörensen, Johanna, Arguello Souza, Felipe Augusto, Stahl, Kerstin, Steinhausen, Max, Stoelzle, Michael, Szalińska, Wiwiana, Tang, Qiuhong, Tian, Fuqiang, Tokarczyk, Tamara, Tovar, Carolina, Tran, Thi Van Thu, Van Huijgevoort, Marjolein H. J., van Vliet, Michelle T. H., Vorogushyn, Sergiy, Wagener, Thorsten, Wang, Yueling, Wendt, Doris E., Wickham, Elliot, Yang, Long, Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio, Blöschl, Günter, and Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

Published
2022
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7. Mountain snowpack response to different levels of warming

Author

Huning, Laurie S and AghaKouchak, Amir

Subjects
Climate Action, snow, climate, probabilistic analysis, water resources, hydrology
Abstract

Temperature variability impacts the distribution and persistence of the mountain snowpack, which critically provides snowmelt-derived water resources to large populations worldwide. Warmer temperatures decrease the amount of montane snow water equivalent (SWE), forcing its center of mass to higher elevations. We use a unique multivariate probabilistic framework to quantify the response of the 1 April SWE volume and its centroid to a 1.0 to 2.0 °C increase in winter air temperature across the Sierra Nevada (United States). A 1.0 °C increase reduces the probability of exceeding the long-term (1985-2016) average rangewide SWE volume (15.7 km3) by 20.7%. It correspondingly is 60.6% more likely for the centroid to be higher than its long-term average (2,540 m). We further show that a 1.5 and 2.0 °C increase in the winter temperature reduces the probability of exceeding the long-term average SWE volume by 31.0% and 41.1%, respectively, whereas it becomes 79.3% and 89.8% more likely that the centroid will be higher than 2,540 m for those respective temperature changes. We also characterize regional variability across the Sierra Nevada and show that the northwestern and southeastern regions of the mountain range are 30.3% and 14.0% less likely to have 1 April SWE volumes exceed their long-term average for a 1.0 °C increase about their respective average winter temperatures. Overall, the SWE in the northern Sierra Nevada exhibits higher hydrologic vulnerability to warming than in the southern region. Given the expected increases in mountain temperatures, the observed rates of change in SWE are expected to intensify in the future.

Published
2018

8. The need to integrate flood and drought disaster risk reduction strategies

Author

Ward, Philip J., de Ruiter, Marleen C., Mård, Johanna, Schröter, Kai, Van Loon, Anne, Veldkamp, Ted, von Uexkull, Nina, Wanders, Niko, AghaKouchak, Amir, Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten, Capewell, Lucinda, Carmen Llasat, Maria, Day, Rosie, Dewals, Benjamin, Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, Huning, Laurie S., Kreibich, Heidi, Mazzoleni, Maurizio, Savelli, Elisa, Teutschbein, Claudia, van den Berg, Harmen, van der Heijden, Anne, Vincken, Jelle M.R., Waterloo, Maarten J., and Wens, Marthe

Published
2020
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12. Corrigendum

Author

Wrzesien, Melissa L., Durand, Michael T., Pavelsky, Tamlin M., Howat, Ian M., Margulis, Steven A., and Huning, Laurie S.

Published
2018

15. Toward impact-based monitoring of drought and its cascading hazards

Author

AghaKouchak, Amir, primary, Huning, Laurie S., additional, Sadegh, Mojtaba, additional, Qin, Yue, additional, Markonis, Yannis, additional, Vahedifard, Farshid, additional, Love, Charlotte A., additional, Mishra, Ashok, additional, Mehran, Ali, additional, Obringer, Renee, additional, Hjelmstad, Annika, additional, Pallickara, Shrideep, additional, Jiwa, Shakil, additional, Hanel, Martin, additional, Zhao, Yunxia, additional, Pendergrass, Angeline G., additional, Arabi, Mazdak, additional, Davis, Steven J., additional, Ward, Philip J., additional, Svoboda, Mark, additional, Pulwarty, Roger, additional, and Kreibich, Heidi, additional

Published
2023
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17. Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

Author

Kreibich, Heidi, primary, Schröter, Kai, additional, Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, additional, Van Loon, Anne F., additional, Mazzoleni, Maurizio, additional, Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho, additional, Agafonova, Svetlana, additional, AghaKouchak, Amir, additional, Aksoy, Hafzullah, additional, Alvarez-Garreton, Camila, additional, Aznar, Blanca, additional, Balkhi, Laila, additional, Barendrecht, Marlies H., additional, Biancamaria, Sylvain, additional, Bos-Burgering, Liduin, additional, Bradley, Chris, additional, Budiyono, Yus, additional, Buytaert, Wouter, additional, Capewell, Lucinda, additional, Carlson, Hayley, additional, Cavus, Yonca, additional, Couasnon, Anaïs, additional, Coxon, Gemma, additional, Daliakopoulos, Ioannis, additional, de Ruiter, Marleen C., additional, Delus, Claire, additional, Erfurt, Mathilde, additional, Esposito, Giuseppe, additional, François, Didier, additional, Frappart, Frédéric, additional, Freer, Jim, additional, Frolova, Natalia, additional, Gain, Animesh K., additional, Grillakis, Manolis, additional, Grima, Jordi Oriol, additional, Guzmán, Diego A., additional, Huning, Laurie S., additional, Ionita, Monica, additional, Kharlamov, Maxim, additional, Khoi, Dao Nguyen, additional, Kieboom, Natalie, additional, Kireeva, Maria, additional, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, additional, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, additional, Li, Hong-Yi, additional, LLasat, Maria Carmen, additional, Macdonald, David, additional, Mård, Johanna, additional, Mathew-Richards, Hannah, additional, McKenzie, Andrew, additional, Mejia, Alfonso, additional, Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario, additional, Mens, Marjolein, additional, Mobini, Shifteh, additional, Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna, additional, Nagavciuc, Viorica, additional, Ngo-Duc, Thanh, additional, Nguyen, Huynh Thi Thao, additional, Nhi, Pham Thi Thao, additional, Petrucci, Olga, additional, Quan, Nguyen Hong, additional, Quintana-Seguí, Pere, additional, Razavi, Saman, additional, Ridolfi, Elena, additional, Riegel, Jannik, additional, Sadik, Md Shibly, additional, Sairam, Nivedita, additional, Savelli, Elisa, additional, Sazonov, Alexey, additional, Sharma, Sanjib, additional, Sörensen, Johanna, additional, Souza, Felipe Augusto Arguello, additional, Stahl, Kerstin, additional, Steinhausen, Max, additional, Stoelzle, Michael, additional, Szalińska, Wiwiana, additional, Tang, Qiuhong, additional, Tian, Fuqiang, additional, Tokarczyk, Tamara, additional, Tovar, Carolina, additional, Tran, Thi Van Thu, additional, van Huijgevoort, Marjolein H. J., additional, van Vliet, Michelle T. H., additional, Vorogushyn, Sergiy, additional, Wagener, Thorsten, additional, Wang, Yueling, additional, Wendt, Doris E., additional, Wickham, Elliot, additional, Yang, Long, additional, Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio, additional, and Ward, Philip J., additional

Published
2023
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18. Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

Author

Kreibich, Heidi, Schröter, Kai, Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, Van Loon, Anne F, Mazzoleni, Maurizio, Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho, Agafonova, Svetlana, AghaKouchak, Amir, Aksoy, Hafzullah, Alvarez-Garreton, Camila, Aznar, Blanca, Balkhi, Laila, Barendrecht, Marlies H, Biancamaria, Sylvain, Bos-Burgering, Liduin, Bradley, Chris, Budiyono, Yus, Buytaert, Wouter, Capewell, Lucinda, Carlson, Hayley, Cavus, Yonca, Couasnon, Anaïs, Coxon, Gemma, Daliakopoulos, Ioannis, de Ruiter, Marleen C, Delus, Claire, Erfurt, Mathilde, Esposito, Giuseppe, François, Didier, Frappart, Frédéric, Freer, Jim, Frolova, Natalia, Gain, Animesh K, Grillakis, Manolis, Grima, Jordi Oriol, Guzmán, Diego A, Huning, Laurie S, Ionita, Monica, Kharlamov, Maxim, Khoi, Dao Nguyen, Kieboom, Natalie, Kireeva, Maria, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Li, Hong-Yi, LLasat, Maria Carmen, Macdonald, David, Mård, Johanna, Mathew-Richards, Hannah, McKenzie, Andrew, Mejia, Alfonso, Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario, Mens, Marjolein, Mobini, Shifteh, Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna, Nagavciuc, Viorica, Ngo-Duc, Thanh, Nguyen, Huynh Thi Thao, Nhi, Pham Thi Thao, Petrucci, Olga, Quan, Nguyen Hong, Quintana-Seguí, Pere, Razavi, Saman, Ridolfi, Elena, Riegel, Jannik, Sadik, Shibly, Sairam, Nivedita, Savelli, Elisa, Sazonov, Alexey, Sharma, Sanjib, Sörensen, Johanna, Souza, Felipe Augusto Arguello, Stahl, Kerstin, Steinhausen, Max, Stoelzle, Michael, Szalińska, Wiwiana, Tang, Qiuhong, Tian, Fuqiang, Tokarczyk, Tamara, Tovar, Carolina, Van Thu Tran, Thi, van Huijgevoort, Marjolein HJ, van Vliet, Michelle TH, Vorogushyn, Sergiy, Wagener, Thorsten, Wang, Yueling, Wendt, Doris E, Wickham, Elliot, Yang, Long, Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio, Ward, Philip J, Kreibich, Heidi, Schröter, Kai, Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, Van Loon, Anne F, Mazzoleni, Maurizio, Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho, Agafonova, Svetlana, AghaKouchak, Amir, Aksoy, Hafzullah, Alvarez-Garreton, Camila, Aznar, Blanca, Balkhi, Laila, Barendrecht, Marlies H, Biancamaria, Sylvain, Bos-Burgering, Liduin, Bradley, Chris, Budiyono, Yus, Buytaert, Wouter, Capewell, Lucinda, Carlson, Hayley, Cavus, Yonca, Couasnon, Anaïs, Coxon, Gemma, Daliakopoulos, Ioannis, de Ruiter, Marleen C, Delus, Claire, Erfurt, Mathilde, Esposito, Giuseppe, François, Didier, Frappart, Frédéric, Freer, Jim, Frolova, Natalia, Gain, Animesh K, Grillakis, Manolis, Grima, Jordi Oriol, Guzmán, Diego A, Huning, Laurie S, Ionita, Monica, Kharlamov, Maxim, Khoi, Dao Nguyen, Kieboom, Natalie, Kireeva, Maria, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Li, Hong-Yi, LLasat, Maria Carmen, Macdonald, David, Mård, Johanna, Mathew-Richards, Hannah, McKenzie, Andrew, Mejia, Alfonso, Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario, Mens, Marjolein, Mobini, Shifteh, Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna, Nagavciuc, Viorica, Ngo-Duc, Thanh, Nguyen, Huynh Thi Thao, Nhi, Pham Thi Thao, Petrucci, Olga, Quan, Nguyen Hong, Quintana-Seguí, Pere, Razavi, Saman, Ridolfi, Elena, Riegel, Jannik, Sadik, Shibly, Sairam, Nivedita, Savelli, Elisa, Sazonov, Alexey, Sharma, Sanjib, Sörensen, Johanna, Souza, Felipe Augusto Arguello, Stahl, Kerstin, Steinhausen, Max, Stoelzle, Michael, Szalińska, Wiwiana, Tang, Qiuhong, Tian, Fuqiang, Tokarczyk, Tamara, Tovar, Carolina, Van Thu Tran, Thi, van Huijgevoort, Marjolein HJ, van Vliet, Michelle TH, Vorogushyn, Sergiy, Wagener, Thorsten, Wang, Yueling, Wendt, Doris E, Wickham, Elliot, Yang, Long, Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio, and Ward, Philip J

Abstract

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, 10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).

Published
2023

19. Toward impact-based monitoring of drought and its cascading hazards

Author

AghaKouchak, Amir, Huning, Laurie S., Sadegh, Mojtaba, Qin, Yue, Markonis, Yannis, Vahedifard, Farshid, Love, Charlotte A., Mishra, Ashok, Mehran, Ali, Obringer, Renee, Hjelmstad, Annika, Pallickara, Shrideep, Jiwa, Shakil, Hanel, Martin, Zhao, Yunxia, Pendergrass, Angeline G., Arabi, Mazdak, Davis, Steven J., Ward, Philip J., Svoboda, Mark, Pulwarty, Roger, Kreibich, Heidi, AghaKouchak, Amir, Huning, Laurie S., Sadegh, Mojtaba, Qin, Yue, Markonis, Yannis, Vahedifard, Farshid, Love, Charlotte A., Mishra, Ashok, Mehran, Ali, Obringer, Renee, Hjelmstad, Annika, Pallickara, Shrideep, Jiwa, Shakil, Hanel, Martin, Zhao, Yunxia, Pendergrass, Angeline G., Arabi, Mazdak, Davis, Steven J., Ward, Philip J., Svoboda, Mark, Pulwarty, Roger, and Kreibich, Heidi

Abstract

Growth in satellite observations and modelling capabilities has transformed drought monitoring, offering near-real-time information. However, current monitoring efforts focus on hazards rather than impacts, and are further disconnected from drought-related compound or cascading hazards such as heatwaves, wildfires, floods and debris flows. In this Perspective, we advocate for impact-based drought monitoring and integration with broader drought-related hazards. Impact-based monitoring will go beyond top-down hazard information, linking drought to physical or societal impacts such as crop yield, food availability, energy generation or unemployment. This approach, specifically forecasts of drought event impacts, would accordingly benefit multiple stakeholders involved in drought planning, and risk and response management, with clear benefits for food and water security. Yet adoption and implementation is hindered by the absence of consistent drought impact data, limited information on local factors affecting water availability (including water demand, transfer and withdrawal), and impact assessment models being disconnected from drought monitoring tools. Implementation of impact-based drought monitoring thus requires the use of newly available remote sensors, the availability of large volumes of standardized data across drought-related fields, and the adoption of artificial intelligence to extract and synthesize physical and societal drought impacts.

Published
2023
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22. Tracking the impacts of precipitation phase changes through the hydrologic cycle in snowy regions: From precipitation to reservoir storage

Author

Herman, Jonathan D., Pavelsky, Tamlin M., Huning, Laurie S., Sobolowski, Stefan P., Wrzesien, Melissa L., and Cohen, Jonathan S.

Subjects
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Abstract

Cool season precipitation plays a critical role in regional water resource management in the western United States. Throughout the twenty-first century, regional precipitation will be impacted by rising temperatures and changing circulation patterns. Changes to precipitation magnitude remain challenging to project; however, precipitation phase is largely dependent on temperature, and temperature predictions from global climate models are generally in agreement. To understand the implications of this dependence, we investigate projected patterns in changing precipitation phase for mountain areas of the western United States over the twenty-first century and how shifts from snow to rain may impact runoff. We downscale two bias-corrected global climate models for historical and end-century decades with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to estimate precipitation phase and spatial patterns at high spatial resolution (9 km). For future decades, we use the RCP 8.5 scenario, which may be considered a very high baseline emissions scenario to quantify snow season differences over major mountain chains in the western U.S. Under this scenario, the average annual snowfall fraction over the Sierra Nevada decreases by >45% by the end of the century. In contrast, for the colder Rocky Mountains, the snowfall fraction decreases by 29%. Streamflow peaks in basins draining the Sierra Nevada are projected to arrive nearly a month earlier by the end of the century. By coupling WRF with a water resources model, we estimate that California reservoirs will shift towards earlier maximum storage by 1–2 months, suggesting that water management strategies will need to adapt to changes in streamflow magnitude and timing.

Published
2022
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28. Anthropogenic Drought: Definition, Challenges, and Opportunities

Author

AghaKouchak, Amir, Mirchi, Ali, Madani, Kaveh, Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, Nazemi, Ali, Alborzi, Aneseh, Anjileli, Hassan, Azarderakhsh, Marzi, Chiang, Felicia, Hassanzadeh, Elmira, Huning, Laurie S., Mallakpour, Iman, Martinez, Alexandre, Mazdiyasni, Omid, Moftakhari, Hamed, Norouzi, Hamid, Sadegh, Mojtaba, Sadeqi, Dalal, Van Loon, Anne F., Wanders, Niko, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, and Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology

Subjects
Geophysics
Abstract

Traditional, mainstream definitions of drought describe it as deficit in water-related variables or water-dependent activities (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, surface and groundwater storage, and irrigation) due to natural variabilities that are out of the control of local decision-makers. Here, we argue that within coupled human-water systems, drought must be defined and understood as a process as opposed to a product to help better frame and describe the complex and interrelated dynamics of both natural and human-induced changes that define anthropogenic drought as a compound multidimensional and multiscale phenomenon, governed by the combination of natural water variability, climate change, human decisions and activities, and altered micro-climate conditions due to changes in land and water management. This definition considers the full spectrum of dynamic feedbacks and processes (e.g., land-atmosphere interactions and water and energy balance) within human-nature systems that drive the development of anthropogenic drought. This process magnifies the water supply demand gap and can lead to water bankruptcy, which will become more rampant around the globe in the coming decades due to continuously growing water demands under compounding effects of climate change and global environmental degradation. This challenge has de facto implications for both short-term and long-term water resources planning and management, water governance, and policymaking. Herein, after a brief overview of the anthropogenic drought concept and its examples, we discuss existing research gaps and opportunities for better understanding, modeling, and management of this phenomenon.

Published
2021

29. Anthropogenic Drought: Definition, Challenges, and Opportunities

Author

Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, AghaKouchak, Amir, Mirchi, Ali, Madani, Kaveh, Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, Nazemi, Ali, Alborzi, Aneseh, Anjileli, Hassan, Azarderakhsh, Marzi, Chiang, Felicia, Hassanzadeh, Elmira, Huning, Laurie S., Mallakpour, Iman, Martinez, Alexandre, Mazdiyasni, Omid, Moftakhari, Hamed, Norouzi, Hamid, Sadegh, Mojtaba, Sadeqi, Dalal, Van Loon, Anne F., Wanders, Niko, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, AghaKouchak, Amir, Mirchi, Ali, Madani, Kaveh, Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, Nazemi, Ali, Alborzi, Aneseh, Anjileli, Hassan, Azarderakhsh, Marzi, Chiang, Felicia, Hassanzadeh, Elmira, Huning, Laurie S., Mallakpour, Iman, Martinez, Alexandre, Mazdiyasni, Omid, Moftakhari, Hamed, Norouzi, Hamid, Sadegh, Mojtaba, Sadeqi, Dalal, Van Loon, Anne F., and Wanders, Niko

Published
2021

30. Anthropogenic Drought: Definition, Challenges, and Opportunities

Author

AghaKouchak, Amir, primary, Mirchi, Ali, additional, Madani, Kaveh, additional, Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, additional, Nazemi, Ali, additional, Alborzi, Aneseh, additional, Anjileli, Hassan, additional, Azarderakhsh, Marzi, additional, Chiang, Felicia, additional, Hassanzadeh, Elmira, additional, Huning, Laurie S., additional, Mallakpour, Iman, additional, Martinez, Alexandre, additional, Mazdiyasni, Omid, additional, Moftakhari, Hamed, additional, Norouzi, Hamid, additional, Sadegh, Mojtaba, additional, Sadeqi, Dalal, additional, Van Loon, Anne F., additional, and Wanders, Niko, additional

Published
2021
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31. The need to integrate flood and drought disaster risk reduction strategies

Author

Public Governance, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Ward, Philip J., de Ruiter, Marleen C., Mård, Johanna, Schröter, Kai, Van Loon, Anne, Veldkamp, Ted, von Uexkull, Nina, Wanders, Niko, AghaKouchak, Amir, Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten, Capewell, Lucinda, Carmen Llasat, Maria, Day, Rosie, Dewals, Benjamin, Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, Huning, Laurie S., Kreibich, Heidi, Mazzoleni, Maurizio, Savelli, Elisa, Teutschbein, Claudia, van den Berg, Harmen, van der Heijden, Anne, Vincken, Jelle M.R., Waterloo, Maarten J., Wens, Marthe, Public Governance, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Ward, Philip J., de Ruiter, Marleen C., Mård, Johanna, Schröter, Kai, Van Loon, Anne, Veldkamp, Ted, von Uexkull, Nina, Wanders, Niko, AghaKouchak, Amir, Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten, Capewell, Lucinda, Carmen Llasat, Maria, Day, Rosie, Dewals, Benjamin, Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, Huning, Laurie S., Kreibich, Heidi, Mazzoleni, Maurizio, Savelli, Elisa, Teutschbein, Claudia, van den Berg, Harmen, van der Heijden, Anne, Vincken, Jelle M.R., Waterloo, Maarten J., and Wens, Marthe

Published
2020

32. Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World

Author

AghaKouchak, Amir, primary, Chiang, Felicia, additional, Huning, Laurie S., additional, Love, Charlotte A., additional, Mallakpour, Iman, additional, Mazdiyasni, Omid, additional, Moftakhari, Hamed, additional, Papalexiou, Simon Michael, additional, Ragno, Elisa, additional, and Sadegh, Mojtaba, additional

Published
2020
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