Search

Electric vehicles are characterized by low energy stored on energy invested (ESOI) levels and their spread will worsen the criticality of some minerals.

Although the transition to renewable energies will intensify the global competition for land, the potential impacts driven by solar energy remain unexplored. In this work, the potential solar land requirements and related land use change emissions are computed for the EU, India, Japan and South Korea. A novel method is developed within an integrated assessment model which links socioeconomic, energy, land and climate systems. At 25 80% penetration in the electricity mix of those regions by 2050, we find that solar energy may occupy 0.5 5% of total land. The resulting land cover changes, including indirect effects, will likely cause a net release of carbon ranging from 0 to 50 gCO2/kWh, depending on the region, scale of expansion, solar technology efficiency and land management practices in solar parks. Hence, a coordinated planning and regulation of new solar energy infrastructures should be enforced to avoid a significant increase in their life cycle emissions through terrestrial carbon losses. © 2021, The Author(s). Funding was provided by Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad, Gobierno de España (Grant No. MDM-2017-0714), Horizon 2020 (Grant Nos. 642260, 821105), Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universi-dades (Grant No. RTI2018-093352-B-I00) and Eusko Jaurlaritza (Grant No. PRE_2017_2_0139).

Producción Científica, Achieving ambitious reductions in greenhouse gases (GHG) is particularly challenging for transportation due to the technical limitations of replacing oil-based fuels. We apply the integrated assessment model MEDEAS-World to study four global transportation decarbonization strategies for 2050. The results show that a massive replacement of oil-fueled individual vehicles to electric ones alone cannot deliver GHG reductions consistent with climate stabilization and could result in the scarcity of some key minerals, such as lithium and magnesium. In addition, energy-economy feedbacks within an economic growth system create a rebound effect that counters the benefits of substitution. The only strategy that can achieve the objectives globally follows the Degrowth paradigm, combining a quick and radical shift to lighter electric vehicles and non-motorized modes with a drastic reduction in total transportation demand., European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no 691287 and 821105, respectively., Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project ECO2017-85110-R), Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project FJCI-2016-28833)

Hubbert based models to project future oil extraction in Ecuador were developed. Two values of ultimate recoverable resources (URR) (7860–10,700 million barrels (MMbbl)) are applied to 16 models, considering symmetric and asymmetric Hubbert models and one and two cycles under top-down and bottom-up approaches. Models are discussed based on the best fit to historical data, and year and value of maximum extraction. The peak oil extraction obtained ranges between 196 and 215 MMbbl and would be reached in the years 2014–2025. An analysis of the implications of extraction models in a Business as Usual and Alternative oil demand scenarios up to 2035 was performed. Ecuador could become a net oil importer between 2024 and 2035, depending on the model and demand scenario. Economic oil trade balance could be seriously affected, decreasing from a current positive value of around 2 billion USD to incur deficits of 0.6–16.7 billion USD in 2035. Current and future oil dependence for Ecuador would increase vulnerability and compromise the country in terms of energy security and trade balance. It is critical for Ecuador to consider more ambitious policies focused on energy efficiency, renewables and diversification of the productive structure over the next few years.

13 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables, 3 appendixes, supplementary data https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110105, This paper reviews different approaches to modelling the energy transition towards a zero carbon economy. It identifies a number of limitations in current approaches such as a lack of consideration of out-of-equilibrium situations (like an energy transition) and non-linear feedbacks. To tackle those issues, the new open source integrated assessment model pymedeas is introduced, which allows the exploration of the design and planning of appropriate strategies and policies for decarbonizing the energy sector at World and EU level. The main novelty of the new open-source model is that it addresses the energy transition by considering biophysical limits, availability of raw materials, and climate change impacts. This paper showcases the model capabilities through several simulation experiments to explore alternative pathways for the renewable transition. In the selected scenarios of this work, future shortage of fossil fuels is found to be the most influential factor of the simulations system evolution. Changes in efficiency and climate change damages are also important determinants influencing model outcomes, This work was supported by the European Union through the funding of the MEDEAS project under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [grant agreement No 69128], With the funding support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S), of the Spanish Research Agency (AEI)

Producción Científica, Community energy (CE) initiatives are developing in many regions of the world through a great diversity of typologies. Europe has a leading role with thousands of ongoing projects of small and medium size, which are however unevenly distributed over the continent. The density of CE projects is highest in North-Western and parts of Central Europe; on the contrary, their spread in post-socialist European countries (PSECs) has been reported to be much more limited. However, the (under)development of CE in PSECs remains an understudied topic in the literature. In this paper, we present an exploratory overview of the situation and briefly discuss its potential explanatory factors for 16 PSECs. We find differing development levels of progress, with Croatia outstanding with a diversity of projects and a certain maturation of the field, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia with a reduced number of rather small-scale projects, while in the remaining countries no operational relevant projects have been found to date. We present our methods, overviews by country and some tentative explanations. We suggest further research to be directed towards in-depth analysis of single countries and relevant project cases in PSECs., Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (grant FJCI-2016–28833)

Producción Científica, Valladolid (Spain) is a medium-size city (~300,000 inhabitants) that established a greenhouse (GHG) emissions reduction target in 2011 of 20% from 2010–2020. However, tracking the evolution of GHG in medium-size cities is challenging due to the general lack of compulsory data collection at this scale and issues with boundaries when attempting alternative estimates. Here, we propose and apply a novel method to estimate the evolution of GHG emissions due to energy consumption for the period of 2010–2019 in Valladolid, combining top-down and bottom-up data following a physical energy flows approach. The energy consumption of the city is estimated by main sectors and types of energies. The results show that, throughout the past decade, both total energy consumption and its sector end-use share did not significantly change: final energy consumption remained at around 24 MWh (86.5 GJ) per capita and was still highly dependent on fossil fuels, especially natural gas and oil products (over 70% of total energy supply). The GHG reduction by 2019 was ~11% with relation to 2010 and, thus, had not reached the set objective; in per capita terms, the GHG reduction was lower (~6%) due to population loss during the period. The trend, however, has not been monotone and has instead followed a U-shape strongly correlated with the economic crisis and subsequent recovery, suggesting that transition policies have had, at most, a modest effect on the overall results. The analysis shows, first of all, the limitations of statistical sources at a local level, both for energy and mobility, which do not allow more accurate results in identifying the main energy consumers to be reached; and, secondly, the need for strong decarbonization measures which have to be set urgently at all the relevant institutional levels. Reaching GHG neutrality in the city by 2050 requires reducing the GHG emissions by ~13%/year, which is ~20 times faster than for the 2010–2019 average of 0.6%/year.

13 pages, 3 figures, 8 tables, This paper analyses the contribution of the high speed rail project in the Basque Country, Spain, to energy consumption reduction and to climate change mitigation by means of a simplified Life Cycle Assessment. The calculation of CO2 emissions and energy consumption reductions over the service lifetime of the infrastructure (60 years) shows that, even in the most optimistic scenarios considered, it would neither compensate the CO2 emissions linked to its construction and maintenance (2,71 MtCO2), nor would it contribute to net energy savings before 55 years of service. Robustness of these results leads us to conclude that GHG emissions reduction and energy savings should not be used as a general argument in favour of investing in high-speed rail infrastructure, Financial support by the University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU) under research grants UFI11/03 and US15/11, by the Department of Education of the Basque Government through Grant IT-642-13 (UPV/EHU Econometrics Research Group) and by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through grant ECO2014-52587-R is gratefully acknowledged

The rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. As sea ice melts, more open water is exposed to solar radiation, absorbing heat and generating a sea-ice–albedo feedback that reinforces Arctic warming. Recent studies stress the significance of this feedback mechanism and suggest that ice-free summer conditions in the Arctic Ocean may occur faster than previously expected, even under low-emissions pathways. Here we use an integrated assessment model to explore the implications of a potentially rapid sea-ice-loss process. We consider a scenario leading to a full month free of sea ice in September 2050, followed by three potential trajectories afterward: partial recovery, stabilization, and continued loss of sea ice. We analyze how these scenarios affect the efforts to keep global temperature increase below 2°C. Our results show that sea-ice melting in the Arctic requires more stringent mitigation efforts globally. We find that global CO2 emissions would need to reach zero levels 5–15 years earlier and that the carbon budget would need to be reduced by 20%–51% to offset this additional source of warming. The extra mitigation effort would imply an 18%–59% higher mitigation cost to society. Our results also show that to achieve the 1.5°C target in the presence of ice-free summers negative emissions would be needed. This study highlights the need for a better understanding of how the rapid changes observed in the Arctic may impact our society.

Game-based learning refers to the use of game thinking and mechanics to engage and motivate students in the learning process. We applied this innovative concept to complement the theoretical sessions of an introductory course on ecological economics in the Faculty of Economics and Business of the University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU). A participatory simulation game originally developed by Capellán-Pérez et al. (2019) in the context of energy and sustainability education was adapted for this course; and at the same time, the theoretical sessions were reshaped to enhance the learning experience of the gaming. The pedagogical effect of the whole course was evaluated with a previous and posterior questionnaire. The results show that this combined strategy is especially suited to motivate and engage students into the discipline of ecological economics, as well as in order to promote team work and collaborative thinking. We also observed that students gained a better global vision and interrelation between the topics discussed during the course and a greater capacity to understand and interiorise the global socio-environmental crisis that humanity is currently facing

There is a general need to facilitate citizens&rsquo, understanding of the global sustainability problem with the dual purpose of raising their awareness of the seriousness of the problem and helping them get closer to understanding the complexity of the solutions. Here, the design and application of the participatory simulation game Global Sustainability Crossroads is described, based on a global state-of-the-art energy&ndash, economy&ndash, environment model, which creates a virtual scenario where the participants are confronted with the design of climate mitigation strategies as well as the social, economic, and environmental consequences of decisions. The novelty of the game rests on the global scope and the representation of the drivers of anthropogenic emissions within the MEDEAS-World model, combined with a participatory simulation group dynamic flexible enough to be adapted to a diversity of contexts and participants. The performance of 13 game workshops with ~420 players has shown it has a significant pedagogical potential: the game is able to generate discussions on crucial topics which are usually outside the public realm such as the relationship between economic growth and sustainability, the role of technology, how human desires are limited by biophysical constraints or the possibility of climate tipping points.

Uncertainties concerning fossil fuel resource availability have traditionally been deemphasized in climate change research as global baseline emission scenarios (i.e., scenarios that do not consider additional climate policies) have been built on the assumption of abundant fossil fuel resources for the 21st century. However, current estimates are subject to critical uncertainties and an emerging body of literature is providing revised estimates. Here we consider the entire range of revised estimates, applying an integrated assessment model to perform a likelihood analysis of climate change pathways. Our results show that, by the end of the century, the two highest emission pathways from the IPCC, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP6 and RCP8.5, where the baseline scenarios currently lie, have probabilities of being surpassed of 42% and 12%, respectively. In terms of temperature change, the probability of exceeding the 2 °C level by 2100 remains very high (88%), confirming the need for urgent climate action. Coal resource uncertainty determines the uncertainty about the emission and radiative forcing pathways due to the poor quality of data. We also find that the depletion of fossil fuels is likely to occur during the second half of the century accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources in baseline scenarios. Accordingly, more investments may be required to enable the energy transition, while the additional mitigation measures would in turn necessitate a lower effort than currently estimated. Hence, the integrated analysis of resource availability and climate change is essential to obtain internally consistent climate pathways.

Producción Científica, Whether renewable energy sources (RES) will provide sufficient energy surplus to entirely power complex modern societies is under discussion. We contribute to this debate by estimating the current global average energy return on energy invested (EROI) for the five RES technologies with the highest potential of electricity generation from the comprehensive and internally consistent estimations of their material requirements at three distinct energy system boundaries: standard farm-gate (EROIst), final at consumer point-of-use (EROIfinal), and extended (including indirect investments, EROIext). EROIst levels found fall within the respective literature ranges. Expanding the boundaries closer to the system level, we find that only large hydroelectricity would currently have a high EROIext ~ 6.5:1, while the rest of variable RES would be below 3:1: onshore wind (2.9:1), offshore wind (2.3:1), solar Photovoltaic (PV) (1.8:1), and solar Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) (, MEDEAS project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon2020 research and innovation programme under grant agree-ment no. 691287, LOCOMOTION project, funded by the EuropeanUnion’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement no. 821105

Producción Científica, Analyses proposing a high share of concentrated solar power (CSP) in future 100% renewable energy scenarios rely on the ability of this technology, through storage and/or hybridization, to partially avoid the problems associated with the hourly/daily (short-term) variability of other variable renewable sources such as wind or solar photovoltaic. However, data used in the scientific literature are mainly theoretical values. In this work, the actual performance of CSP plants in operation from publicly available data from four countries (Spain, the USA, India, and United Arab Emirates) has been estimated for three dimensions: capacity factor (CF), seasonal variability, and energy return on energy invested (EROI). In fact, the results obtained show that the actual performance of CSP plants is significantly worse than that projected by constructors and considered by the scientific literature in the theoretical studies: a CF in the range of 0.15–0.3, low standard EROI (1.3:1–2.4:1), intensive use of materials—some scarce, and significant seasonal intermittence. In the light of the obtained results, the potential contribution of current CSP technologies in a future 100% renewable energy system seems very limited., Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project FJCI-2016-28833), European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No. 691287

Growing scientific evidence shows that world energy resources are entering a period shaped by the depletion of high-quality fuels, whilst the decline of the easy-to-extract oil is a widely recognized ongoing phenomenon. The end of the era of cheap and abundant energy flows brings the issue of economic growth into question, stimulating research for alternatives as the de-growth proposal. The present paper applies the system dynamic global model WoLiM that allows economic, energy and climate dynamics to be analyzed in an integrated way. The results show that, if the growth paradigm is maintained, the decrease in fossil fuel extraction can only be partially compensated by renewable energies, alternative policies and efficiency improvements, very likely causing systemic energy shortage in the next decades. If a massive transition to coal would be promoted to try to compensate the decline of oil and gas and maintain economic growth, the climate would be then very deeply disturbed. The results suggest that growth and globalization scenarios are, not only undesirable from the environmental point of view, but also not feasible. Furthermore, regionalization scenarios without abandoning the current growth GDP focus would set the grounds for a pessimistic panorama from the point of view of peace, democracy and equity. In this sense, an organized material de-growth in the North followed by a steady state shows up as a valid framework to achieve global future human welfare and sustainability. The exercise qualitatively illustrates the magnitude of the challenge: the most industrialized countries should reduce, on average, their per capita primary energy use rate at least four times and decrease their per capita GDP to roughly present global average levels. Differently from the current dominant perceptions, these consumption reductions might actually be welfare enhancing. However, the attainment of these targets would require deep structural changes in the socioeconomic systems in combination with a radical shift in geopolitical relationships.

23 pages, 6 figures, 5 tables, 6 appendices, The transition to renewable energies will intensify the global competition for land. Nevertheless, most analyses to date have concluded that land will not pose significant constraints on this transition. Here, we estimate the land-use requirements to supply all currently consumed electricity and final energy with domestic solar energy for 40 countries considering two key issues that are usually not taken into account: (1) the need to cope with the variability of the solar resource, and (2) the real land occupation of solar technologies. We focus on solar since it has the highest power density and biophysical potential among renewables. The exercise performed shows that for many advanced capitalist economies the land requirements to cover their current electricity consumption would be substantial, the situation being especially challenging for those located in northern latitudes with high population densities and high electricity consumption per capita. Assessing the implications in terms of land availability (i.e., land not already used for human activities), the list of vulnerable countries enlarges substantially (the EU-27 requiring around 50% of its available land), few advanced capitalist economies requiring low shares of the estimated available land. Replication of the exercise to explore the land-use requirements associated with a transition to a 100% solar powered economy indicates this transition may be physically unfeasible for countries such as Japan and most of the EU-27 member states. Their vulnerability is aggravated when accounting for the electricity and final energy footprint, i.e., the net embodied energy in international trade. If current dynamics continue, emerging countries such as India might reach a similar situation in the future. Overall, our results indicate that the transition to renewable energies maintaining the current levels of energy consumption has the potential to create new vulnerabilities and/or reinforce existing ones in terms of energy and food security and biodiversity conservation, This work has been partially developed under the MEDEAS project, funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant agreement no. 691287

The progressive reduction of high-quality-easy-to-extract energy is a widely recognized and already ongoing process. Although depletion studies for individual fuels are relatively abundant, few of them offer a global perspective of all energy sources and their potential future developments, and even fewer include the demand of the socio-economic system. This paper presents an Economy-Energy-Environment model based on System Dynamics which integrates all those aspects: the physical restrictions (with peak estimations for oil, gas, coal and uranium), the techno-sustainable potential of renewable energy estimated by a novel top-down methodology, the socio-economic energy demands, the development of alternative technologies and the net CO 2 emissions. We confront our model with the basic assumptions of previous Global Environmental Assessment (GEA) studies. The results show that demand-driven evolution, as performed in the past, might be unfeasible: strong energy-supply scarcity is found in the next two decades, especially in the transportation sector before 2020. Electricity generation is unable to fulfill its demand in 2025–2040, and a large expansion of electric renewable energies move us close to their limits. In order to find achievable scenarios, we are obliged to set hypotheses which are hardly used in GEA scenarios, such as zero or negative economic growth.

This report has various objectives: (i) to provide an overview of the climate Integrated Assessment approach; (ii) to describe the Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM); (iii) to outline the new IPCC scenario framework represented by the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); and (iv) to document the implementation of the new scenario framework in version 3.1 of the GCAM. The GCAM baseline is thus calibrated to the “Middle of the Road†or SSP2 scenario using the data calculated by the OECD. The implications of this scenario are important because it will probably become a standard scenario among the research community. The exogenous variables, the implications for income convergence and the results in terms of energy mix, emissions, temperature and radiative forcing of SSP2 implementation in the GCAM are presented at both global and regional levels. These results are also compared with the GCAM-Reference baseline and the IPCC SRES representative scenarios. Then the feasibility, cost and implications of a climate policy that seeks to stabilize temperature at 2ºC (2.6 W/m2 RCP) using a global uniform carbon tax are analyzed. The study is completed by a decomposition analysis that enables the main driving factors of CO2 variation to be identified, including population, affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity and fossil-fuel share of the energy mix. Finally we draw some conclusions and highlight points for further research.

Through history, special attention has been paid to the study of the relationship between the energy use of a country and its level of development. While the interest of this research area is unquestionable, the energy indicators commonly used (e.g. total primary energy) are problematic. In the current context of globalization, the energy used by a country is not anymore a suitable indicator for measuring the total energy requirements associated with its level of development; the significant variable is the energy consumed worldwide to produce the goods and services demanded by that country, i.e. its energy footprint. In this study, we compare the human development index of 40 countries with their total primary energy demand and total primary energy footprint for the period 1995-2008. The results show that the total primary energy demand underestimates the energy required to maintain a high level of development, since a significant part of the energy used by emerging countries is being increasingly devoted to sustain the welfare of developed countries by means of international trade. We also find that the minimum total primary energy footprint per capita to achieve a high level of development is 33% higher than current world's per capita energy use. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of International Energy Initiative. Inaki Arto thanks financial support by the Seventh Framework Program (FP7) projects COMPLEX (no. 308601) and FLAGSHIP (no. 320330). Inigo Capellan-Perez is grateful for financial support received from Fundacion Repsol under the Low Carbon Programme (www.lowcarbonprogramme.org). The authors express their gratitude to Marco Vinicio Sanchez-Cantillo from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs for providing data series of the human development index, and to Gautam Dutt for his useful comments to improve the last version of the manuscript.

Actualmente, se asiste a los comienzos de un cambio en la tecnologia del transporte a medida que disminuyen las reservas de petroleo y aumenta la conciencia medioambiental de la sociedad. Se pretende que las tecnologias electricas sustituyan a las basadas en hidrocarburos ya que han sido inicialmente concebidas como mas respetuosas con el medio ambiente y mas eficientes energeticamente. Sin embargo, ha surgido el problema de la disponibilidad futura de los materiales que se requieren para este cambio. Una demanda exhaustiva de este tipo de movilidad podria contribuir al agotamiento de los mismos, derivando esto en importantes problemas para la fabricacion de vehiculos y de todas las demas tecnologias que empleen estos materiales si no encontramos alternativas que nos permitan no agotar estos recursos naturales. Estas alternativas pueden pasar no solo por el cambio en los materiales usados en los vehiculos electricos sino, tambien, en la utilizacion de modos de transporte distinto. Con el fin de estimar que materiales relacionados con la transicion en el sector transporte podrian ser mas criticos en el futuro a nivel mundial se utilizara el modelo de simulacion de dinamica de sistemas MEDEAS. Una vez ejecutadas las simulaciones sobre distintos escenarios, se observa como el aluminio, cobre, cobalto, litio, manganeso, y niquel poseen una demanda tan alta que, practicamente, provocaria el agotamiento de sus reservas en varios escenario, por ello propondremos medidas alternativas para intentar evitar su agotamiento a causa de la utilizacion de este tipo de movilidad. Palabras clave: Modos de transporte , recursos minerales, dinamica de sistemas, baterias de ion litio.

Producción Científica, A diversity of integrated assessment models (IAMs) coexists due to the different approaches developed to deal with the complex interactions, high uncertainties and knowledge gaps within the environment and human societies. This paper describes the open-source MEDEAS modeling framework, which has been developed with the aim of informing decision-making to achieve the transition to sustainable energy systems with a focus on biophysical, economic, social and technological restrictions and tackling some of the limitations identified in the current IAMs. MEDEAS models include the following relevant characteristics: representation of biophysical constraints to energy availability; modeling of the mineral and energy investments for the energy transition, allowing a dynamic assessment of the potential mineral scarcities and computation of the net energy available to society; consistent representation of climate change damages with climate assessments by natural scientists; integration of detailed sectoral economic structure (input–output analysis) within a system dynamics approach; energy shifts driven by physical scarcity; and a rich set of socioeconomic and environmental impact indicators. The potentialities and novel insights that this framework brings are illustrated by the simulation of four variants of current trends with the MEDEAS-world model: the consideration of alternative plausible assumptions and methods, combined with the feedback-rich structure of the model, reveal dynamics and implications absent in classical models. Our results suggest that the continuation of current trends will drive significant biophysical scarcities and impacts which will most likely derive in regionalization (priority to security concerns and trade barriers), conflict, and ultimately, a severe global crisis which may lead to the collapse of our modern civilization. Despite depicting a much more worrying future than conventional projections of current trends, we however believe it is a more realistic counterfactual scenario that will allow the design of improved alternative sustainable pathways in future work., Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project CO2017-85110-R), Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project JCI-2016–28833), MEDEAS project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon2020 research and innovation programme under grant agree-ment no. 691287., LOCOMOTION project, funded by the EuropeanUnion’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement no. 821105

Producción Científica, A novel methodology is developed to dynamically assess the energy and material investments required over time to achieve the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources in the electricity sector. The obtained results indicate that a fast transition achieving a 100% renewable electric system globally by 2060 consistent with the Green Growth narrative could decrease the EROI of the energy system from current ~12:1 to ~3:1 by the mid-century, stabilizing thereafter at ~5:1. These EROI levels are well below the thresholds identified in the literature required to sustain industrial complex societies. Moreover, this transition could drive a substantial re-materialization of the economy, exacerbating risk availability in the future for some minerals. Hence, the results obtained put into question the consistence and viability of the Green Growth narrative., Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project no. FJCI-2016-28833), MEDEAS project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 691287

Producción Científica, The estimation of future energy demand is a key factor for the development of effective alternative policies towards a low carbon economy. This paper describes a novel method to estimate the energy demand in the new integrated assessment framework MEDEAS based on the projection of sectoral final energy intensities. The dynamic of each of the sectoral final energy intensity is broken down into (1) improvement in energy efficiency and (2) substitution of the final energy. The speed of changes in these factors depend on physical supply-demand unbalances in the market, climate mitigation and other energy saving policies and the perception of scarcity of the different economic agents. The simulated case studies in MEDEAS-World under the narrative of the Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario have allowed validating the model's robustness and showing the potentiality of its application., European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 691287, Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project FJCI-2016-28833)