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Floods are among the most destructive natural hazards on Earth. In paleohydrology, sediments are generally considered as one of the best archives to extend flood records to pre-historical timescales. Doing so requires being able to identify flood deposits from sediment archives and decipher between flood types. The latter is particularly important in glacierized regions, where meteorological floods frequently co-occur with glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). In Patagonia, results from a recent study suggest that GLOFs are recorded in downstream fjord sediments as fine-grained and organic-poor layers, representing the high amount of glacier rock flour transported during lake outbursts, whereas meteorological floods are represented by coarser and more organic deposits. However, not all fine-grained organic-poor deposits could be associated with historical GLOFs. Here, we reconstruct the provenance of these Baker River flood deposits using Sr-87/Sr-86 and epsilon Nd, taking advantage of the clear lithological differences that exist between both sides of the watershed. Our results show that both Sr-87/Sr-86 and epsilon Nd are suited to reconstruct sediment provenance in the Baker River watershed but that epsilon Nd is the most effective and the least affected by grain-size variations. Our provenance results confirm that the 21st-century fine-grained and organic-poor deposits represent GLOFs and that the largest winter meteorological flood on record has a distinct coarse and organic-rich signature. However, our results show that rain-on-snow events that occur in summer, and therefore primarily affect the western glacierized part of the watershed, have the same fine-grained organic-poor signature as GLOFs. Therefore, this study shows that the sedimentary signature of rain-on-snow floods in partially glacierized watersheds depends on the season during which they occur. We anticipate that our findings will contribute to a better interpretation of flood records from partially glacierized watersheds.

In this article, we present the results of an isotopic study of diet for the early medieval (Merovingian, Viking, Early Christian) humans buried in the unique Luistari cemetery at Eura (ca. 600–1400 CE), southwestern Finland, the largest cemetery of the region. Isotope analysis was conducted on 37 humans for dentine and bone collagen (δ13C, δ15N, and δ34S), and five of them were also studied using compound-specific nitrogen isotope analysis. Dental enamel and/or bone carbonate δ13C values were studied from altogether 65 humans, five cattle, and five sheep/goats. The bone and dentine collagen and carbonate data show that throughout the centuries, freshwater fish was a stable part of the diet for the population. Our results do not show systematic dietary differences between estimated males and females, but differences can be large on the individual level. We also discovered a possible temporal change in the enamel carbonate ẟ13C values that could be related to the increasing role of carbohydrates (e.g., crops) in the diet. Luistari burials are well comparable to contemporary Swedish Viking trading communities like Birka in their higher protein intake. But contrary to the wider Viking network, they do not show the same marine signal.

Significance Atlantic multidecadal sea surface temperature variability (AMV) strongly influences the Northern Hemisphere’s climate, including the Arctic. Here using a well-dated annually laminated lake sediment core, we show that the AMV exerts a strong influence on High-Arctic climate during the instrumental period (past ∼150 y) through atmospheric teleconnection. This highly resolved climate archive is then used to produce the first AMV reconstruction spanning the last ∼3 millennia at unprecedented temporal resolution. Our terrestrial record is significantly correlated to several sea surface temperature proxies in the Atlantic, highlighting the reliability of this record as an annual tracer of the AMV. The results show that the current warmth in sea surface temperature is unseen in the context of the past ∼3 millennia., Global warming due to anthropogenic factors can be amplified or dampened by natural climate oscillations, especially those involving sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic which vary on a multidecadal scale (Atlantic multidecadal variability, AMV). Because the instrumental record of AMV is short, long-term behavior of AMV is unknown, but climatic teleconnections to regions beyond the North Atlantic offer the prospect of reconstructing AMV from high-resolution records elsewhere. Annually resolved titanium from an annually laminated sedimentary record from Ellesmere Island, Canada, shows that the record is strongly influenced by AMV via atmospheric circulation anomalies. Significant correlations between this High-Arctic proxy and other highly resolved Atlantic SST proxies demonstrate that it shares the multidecadal variability seen in the Atlantic. Our record provides a reconstruction of AMV for the past ∼3 millennia at an unprecedented time resolution, indicating North Atlantic SSTs were coldest from ∼1400–1800 CE, while current SSTs are the warmest in the past ∼2,900 y.

High latitude organic soils form a significant carbon storage and deposition of these soils is largely driven by climate. Svalbard, Norway, has experienced millennial-scale climate variations and in general organic soil processes have benefitted from warm and humid climate phases while cool late Holocene has been unfavourable. In addition to direct effect of cool climate, the advancing glaciers have restricted the vegetation growth, thus soil accumulation. Since the early 1900’s climate has been warming at unprecedented rate, assumingly promoting organic soil establishment. Here we present results of multiple organic soil profiles collected from Svalbard. The profiles have robust chronologies accompanied by soil property analyses, carbon stock estimations and testate amoeba data as a proxy for soil moisture. Our results reveal relatively recent initiation of organic soils across the Isfjorden area. The initiation processes could be linked to glacier retreat, and improvement of growing conditions and soil stabilization. Carbon stock analyses suggested that our sites are hot spots for organic matter accumulation. Testate amoebae data suggested drying of soil surfaces, but the reason remained unresolved. If continued, such a process may lead to carbon release. Our data suggest that detailed palaeoecological data from the Arctic is needed to depict the on-going processes and to estimate future trajectories.

International audience; The climate history of the Sahara desert during recent millennia is obscured by the near absence of natural climate archives, hampering insight in the relative importance of southerly (tropical) and northerly (midlatitude) weather systems at submillennial time scales. A new lake sediment record from Ounianga Serir oasis in northern Chad, spanning the Late Holocene without interruption, confirms that immediately before ca 4200 years ago, the Sahara experienced an episode of hyperaridity even more extreme than today's desert climate. The hypersaline terminal lake which formed afterwards never desiccated during the late Holocene due to continuous inflow of fossil groundwater, yet its water balance was sensitive to temporal variation in local rainfall and lake surface evaporation. Our in-lake geochemical proxies show that, during the last 3000 years, century-scale hydroclimate variation in the central Sahara primarily tracked the intensity of the tropical West African monsoon, modulated at shorter time scales by weather patterns linked to shifts in midlatitude Atlantic Ocean circulation.

We used fossil Chironomidae assemblages and the transfer function approach to reconstruct summer air temperatures over the past 300 years from a High Arctic lake in Hornsund, Svalbard. Our aims were to compare reconstructed summer temperatures with observed (last 100 years) seasonal temperatures, to determine a potential climate warming break point in the temperature series and to assess the significance and rate of the climate warming trend at the study site. The reconstructed temperatures were consistent with a previous proxy record from Svalbard and showed good correlation with the meteorological observations from Bjørnøya and Longyearbyen. From the current palaeoclimate record, we found a significant climate warming threshold in the 1930s, after which the temperatures rapidly increased. We also found that the climate warming trend was strong and statistically significant. Compared with the reconstructed Little Ice Age temperatures in late eighteenth century cooling culmination, the present day summer temperatures are >4°C higher and the temperature increase since the 1930s has been 0.5°C per decade. These results highlight the exceptionally rapid recent warming of southern Svalbard and add invaluable information on the seasonality of High Arctic climate change and Arctic amplification.

Mountain glaciers have generally experienced an accelerated retreat over the last 3 decades as a rapid response to current global warming. However, the response to previous warm periods in the Holocene is not well-described for glaciers of the southern Europe mountain ranges, such as the Pyrenees. The situation during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (900–1300 CE) is particularly relevant since it is not certain whether the southern European glaciers just experienced significant ice loss or whether they actually disappeared. We present here the first chronological study of a glacier located in the Central Pyrenees (NE Spain), Monte Perdido Glacier (MPG), carried out by different radiochronological techniques and a comparison with geochemical proxies from neighbouring palaeoclimate records. The chronological model evidences that the glacier persisted during the Roman period and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The apparent absence of ice in the past ∼ 600 years suggests that any ice accumulated during the Little Ice Age has since ablated. This interpretation is supported by measured concentrations of anthropogenic metals, including Zn, Se, Cd, Hg and Pb, which have concentrations well below those typical of industrial-age ice measured at other glaciers in Europe. This study strengthens the general understanding that warming of the past few decades has been exceptional for the past 2 millennia., This research has been supported by the following projects which all were funded by the Spanish Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI – Spain): PaleoICE EXPLORA project (ref CGL2015-72167-EXP), DONAIRE project (ref CGL2015-68993-R), DINAMO3 project (ref CGL2015-69160-R), DINGLAC project (ref CTM2017-84441-R) and iMechPro project (ref RTI2018-100696-B-I00). We acknowledge support of the publication fee by the CSIC Open Access Publication Support Initiative through its Unit of Information Resources for Research (URICI).

A stable isotope investigation of a large Medieval population buried in Iin Hamina, northern Finland, has been used to reconstruct palaeodiet. Iin Hamina is situated approximately 30 km away from the modern city Oulu, in close proximity to the Bothnian Bay coast and the river Ii. The material used in this study is human skeletal material from an Iin Hamina cemetery dated as 15 to 17th centuries AD and animal bones excavated in Northern Ostrobothnia from pre-industrial contexts. Stable isotope analysis of well-preserved collagen indicate that both freshwater and marine fish was the dominant protein source for the people buried at the Iin Hamina cemetery.

The isotopic composition of carbon (Delta C-14 and delta C-13) in atmospheric CO2 and in oceanic and terrestrial carbon reservoirs is influenced by anthropogenic emissions and by natural carbon exchanges, which can respond to and drive changes in climate. Simulations of C-14 and C-13 in the ocean and terrestrial components of Earth system models (ESMs) present opportunities for model evaluation and for investigation of carbon cycling, including anthropogenic CO2 emissions and uptake. The use of carbon isotopes in novel evaluation of the ESMs' component ocean and terrestrial biosphere models and in new analyses of historical changes may improve predictions of future changes in the carbon cycle and climate system. We compile existing data to produce records of Delta C-14 and delta C-13 in atmospheric CO2 for the historical period 1850-2015. The primary motivation for this compilation is to provide the atmospheric boundary condition for historical simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) for models simulating carbon isotopes in the ocean or terrestrial biosphere. The data may also be useful for other carbon cycle modelling activities.

Alpine ecosystems of the southern Iberian Peninsula are among the most vulnerable and the first to respond to modern climate change in southwestern Europe. While major environmental shifts have occurred over the last ∼1500 years in these alpine ecosystems, only changes in the recent centuries have led to abrupt environmental responses, but factors imposing the strongest stress have been unclear until now. To understand these environmental responses, this study, for the first time, has calibrated an algal lipid-derived temperature proxy (based on long-chain alkyl diols) to instrumental historical data extending alpine temperature reconstructions to 1500 years before present. These novel results highlight the enhanced effect of greenhouse gases on alpine temperatures during the last ∼200 years and the long-term modulating role of solar forcing. This study also shows that the warming rate during the 20th century (∼0.18 ∘C per decade) was double that of the last stages of the Little Ice Age (∼0.09 ∘C per decade), even exceeding temperature trends of the high-altitude Alps during the 20th century. As a consequence, temperature exceeded the preindustrial record in the 1950s, and it has been one of the major forcing processes of the recent enhanced change in these alpine ecosystems from southern Iberia since then. Nevertheless, other factors reducing the snow and ice albedo (e.g., atmospheric deposition) may have influenced local glacier loss, since almost steady climate conditions predominated from the middle 19th century to the first decades of the 20th century., This research has been supported by the Seventh Framework Programme (grant no. NAOSIPUK (623027)), the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Secretaría de Estado de Investigación, Desarrollo e Innovación (grant no. CGL2017-85415-R), the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Secretaría de Estado de Investigación, Desarrollo e Innovación (grant no. CGL2013-47038-R), the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Secretaría de Estado de Investigación, Desarrollo e Innovación (grant no. CGL2011-23483), and the Consejería de Economía, Innovación, Ciencia y Empleo, Junta de Andalucía, Agencia de Innovación y Desarrollo de Andalucía (grant no. P11-RNM 7332). This research has also been supported by grant no. 87/2007 of the Organismo Autónomo Parques Nacionales (OAPN)-Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, the research group no. RNM-190 of the Plan Andaluz de Investigación, Desarrollo e Innovación (Junta de Andalucía), and the Ramón y Cajal Fellowship (fellowship no. RYC-2015-18966) of the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Secretaría de Estado de Investigación, Desarrollo e Innovación.

Since about 20,000 years ago, the geography of the Earth has been profoundly modified by the gradual sea-level rise caused by the melting of continental ice sheets. Flat areas and regions characterized by very low gradients experienced, more than others, rapid flooding, with the progressive disappearance of vast coastal territories. Here we present a recon- struction of the late Quaternary coastline evolution of the north-western sector of the Sicilian Channel, constrained by high-resolution seismic profiles where the marker of the post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marine transgression has been clearly identified and mapped. The locations of the post-LGM seismic horizon have been compared with predictions of a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model, which accounts for the migration of the shorelines in response to sea-level rise and for Earth’s rotational and deformational effects associated with deglaciation. We have verified that most of the points mapped through seismic data interpretation fall along the palaeo-coastline that the GIA model predicts for the 21 kyrs B.P. time frame. However, the model shows a misfit in the marine sector between Mazara del Vallo and Sciacca, where the available data indicate a Quaternary tectonic uplift. The analy- sis of the seismic profiles provides useful constraints to current GIA models. These add on existing histories of relative sea level in the Mediterranean Sea, allowing to gain new insight into the evolution of the palaeo-geography of the region of study and of the whole Sicilian Channel since the LGM, even in areas where direct geophysical observations are not avail- able yet. In this respect, one of the most attractive implications of the ancient coastline evo- lution is linked with the underwater archaeology. The sea-level rise heavily impacted the distribution of human settlements, possibly forcing site abandonment and migrations, and this is particularly relevant in the Mediterranean basin, the cradle of the western civilization. The underwater traces left by these ancient populations represent the fundamental proofs to reconstruct the early history of our precursors.

We present here a simple and novel proposal for the modulation and rhythm of ice-ages and interglacials during the late Pleistocene. While the standard Milankovitch-precession theory fails to explain the long intervals between interglacials, these can be accounted for by a novel forcing and feedback system involving CO2, dust and albedo. During the glacial period, the high albedo of the northern ice sheets drives down global temperatures and CO2 concentrations, despite subsequent precessional forcing maxima. Over the following millennia more CO2 is sequestered in the oceans and atmospheric concentrations eventually reach a critical minima of about 200 ppm, which combined with arid conditions, causes a die-back of temperate and boreal forests and grasslands, especially at high altitude. The ensuing soil erosion generates dust storms, resulting in increased dust deposition and lower albedo on the northern ice sheets. As northern hemisphere insolation increases during the next Milankovitch cycle, the dust-laden ice-sheets absorb considerably more insolation and undergo rapid melting, which forces the climate into an interglacial period. The proposed mechanism is simple, robust, and comprehensive in its scope, and its key elements are well supported by empirical evidence.

The branched vs. isoprenoid tetraether (BIT) index is based on the relative abundance of branched tetraether lipids (brGDGTs) and the isoprenoidal GDGT crenarchaeol. In Lake Challa sediments the BIT index has been applied as a proxy for local monsoon precipitation on the assumption that the primary source of brGDGTs is soil washed in from the lake's catchment. Since then, microbial production within the water column has been identified as the primary source of brGDGTs in Lake Challa sediments, meaning that either an alternative mechanism links BIT index variation with rainfall or that the proxy's application must be reconsidered. We investigated GDGT concentrations and BIT index variation in Lake Challa sediments at a decadal resolution over the past 2200 years, in combination with GDGT time-series data from 45 monthly sediment-trap samples and a chronosequence of profundal surface sediments.Our 2200-year geochemical record reveals high-frequency variability in GDGT concentrations, and therefore in the BIT index, superimposed on distinct lower-frequency fluctuations at multi-decadal to century timescales. These changes in BIT index are correlated with changes in the concentration of crenarchaeol but not with those of the brGDGTs. A clue for understanding the indirect link between rainfall and crenarchaeol concentration (and thus thaumarchaeotal abundance) was provided by the observation that surface sediments collected in January 2010 show a distinct shift in GDGT composition relative to sediments collected in August 2007. This shift is associated with increased bulk flux of settling mineral particles with high Ti / Al ratios during March–April 2008, reflecting an event of unusually high detrital input to Lake Challa concurrent with intense precipitation at the onset of the principal rain season that year. Although brGDGT distributions in the settling material are initially unaffected, this soil-erosion event is succeeded by a massive dry-season diatom bloom in July–September 2008 and a concurrent increase in the flux of GDGT-0. Complete absence of crenarchaeol in settling particles during the austral summer following this bloom indicates that no Thaumarchaeota bloom developed at that time. We suggest that increased nutrient availability, derived from the eroded soil washed into the lake, caused the massive bloom of diatoms and that the higher concentrations of ammonium (formed from breakdown of this algal matter) resulted in a replacement of nitrifying Thaumarchaeota, which in typical years prosper during the austral summer, by nitrifying bacteria. The decomposing dead diatoms passing through the suboxic zone of the water column probably also formed a substrate for GDGT-0-producing archaea. Hence, through a cascade of events, intensive rainfall affects thaumarchaeotal abundance, resulting in high BIT index values.Decade-scale BIT index fluctuations in Lake Challa sediments exactly match the timing of three known episodes of prolonged regional drought within the past 250 years. Additionally, the principal trends of inferred rainfall variability over the past two millennia are consistent with the hydroclimatic history of equatorial East Africa, as has been documented from other (but less well dated) regional lake records. We therefore propose that variation in GDGT production originating from the episodic recurrence of strong soil-erosion events, when integrated over (multi-)decadal and longer timescales, generates a stable positive relationship between the sedimentary BIT index and monsoon rainfall at Lake Challa. Application of this paleoprecipitation proxy at other sites requires ascertaining the local processes which affect the productivity of crenarchaeol by Thaumarchaeota and brGDGTs.

Over 60% of the modern distribution range of brown bears falls within Russia, yet palaeoecological data from the region remain scarce. Complete modern Russian brown bear mitogenomes are abundant in the published literature, yet examples of their ancient counterparts are absent. Similarly, there is only limited stable isotopic data of prehistoric brown bears from the region. We used ancient DNA and stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotopes retrieved from five Pleistocene Yakutian brown bears (one Middle Pleistocene and four Late Pleistocene), to elucidate the evolutionary history and palaeoecology of the species in the region. We were able to reconstruct the complete mitogenome of one of the Late Pleistocene specimens, but we were unable to assign it to any of the previously published brown bear mitogenome clades. A subsequent analysis of published mtDNA control region sequences, which included sequences of extinct clades from other geographic regions, assigned the ancient Yakutian bear to the extinct clade 3c; a clade previously identified from Late Quaternary specimens from Eastern Beringia and Northern Spain. Our analyses of stable isotopes showed relatively high δ15N values in the Pleistocene Yakutian brown bears, suggesting a more carnivorous diet than contemporary brown bears from Eastern Beringia.

International audience; Several synergistic mechanisms were likely involved in the last deglacial atmospheric pCO$_2$ rise. Leading hypotheses invoke a release of deep-ocean carbon through enhanced convection in the Southern Ocean (SO) and concomitant decreased efficiency of the global soft-tissue pump (STP). However, the temporal evolution of both the STP and the carbonate counter pump (CCP) remains unclear, thus preventing the evaluation of their contributions to the pCO$_2$ rise. Here we present sedimentary coccolith records combined with export production reconstructions from the Subantarctic Pacific to document the leverage the SO biological carbon pump (BCP) has imposed on deglacial pCO$_2$. Our data suggest a weakening of BCP during the phases of carbon outgassing, due in part to an increased CCP along with higher surface ocean fertility and elevated [CO$_{2aq}$]. We propose that reduced BCP efficiency combined with enhanced SO ventilation played a major role in propelling the Earth out of the last ice age.

To put recent climate change in perspective, it is necessary to extend the instrumental climate records with proxy data from paleoclimate archives. Arctic climate variability for the last 2 millennia has been investigated using statistical and signal analyses from three regionally averaged records from the North Atlantic, Siberia and Alaska based on many types of proxy data archived in the Arctic 2k database v1.1.1. In the North Atlantic and Alaska, the major climatic trend is characterized by long-term cooling interrupted by recent warming that started at the beginning of the 19th century. This cooling is visible in the Siberian region at two sites, warming at the others. The cooling of the Little Ice Age (LIA) was identified from the individual series, but it is characterized by wide-range spatial and temporal expression of climate variability, in contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The LIA started at the earliest by around AD 1200 and ended at the latest in the middle of the 20th century. The widespread temporal coverage of the LIA did not show regional consistency or particular spatial distribution and did not show a relationship with archive or proxy type either. A focus on the last 2 centuries shows a recent warming characterized by a well-marked warming trend parallel with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. It also shows a multidecadal variability likely due to natural processes acting on the internal climate system on a regional scale. A ∼ 16–30-year cycle is found in Alaska and seems to be linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas ∼ 20–30- and ∼ 50–90-year periodicities characterize the North Atlantic climate variability, likely in relation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These regional features are probably linked to the sea ice cover fluctuations through ice–temperature positive feedback.

Several synergistic mechanisms were likely involved in the last deglacial atmospheric pCO(2) rise. Leading hypotheses invoke a release of deep-ocean carbon through enhanced convection in the Southern Ocean (SO) and concomitant decreased efficiency of the global softtissue pump (STP). However, the temporal evolution of both the STP and the carbonate counter pump (CCP) remains unclear, thus preventing the evaluation of their contributions to the pCO(2) rise. Here we present sedimentary coccolith records combined with export production reconstructions from the Subantarctic Pacific to document the leverage the SO biological carbon pump (BCP) has imposed on deglacial pCO(2). Our data suggest a weakening of BCP during the phases of carbon outgassing, due in part to an increased CCP along with higher surface ocean fertility and elevated [CO(2)aq]. We propose that reduced BCP efficiency combined with enhanced SO ventilation played a major role in propelling the Earth out of the last ice age.

The transforming composition of flora and fauna, the change in the structure of natural ecosystems on vast territories (especially of the northern continents) that occurred at the boundary between the Pleistocene and the Holocene require clarification as to their causes, which is impossible without adequate modelling of certain paleogeographical conditions. The natural conditions of that time are reconstructed most often on the basis of the conceptions on catastrophic climate changes and the disappearing giant glaciations, from the formation and decay of which, supposedly, the regressions and transgressions of the ocean depend on. However, since there is no strict synchronization between the processes that are supposedly severely dependent on climate change and, in particular, on the changes of glacials and interglacials, it is quite natural to doubt the very existence of the latter. This doubt is also very significantly enforced by the fact that the activity of glaciers taken as the initial cause of the formation of erratics and their striations is not actually such a cause. Moreover, a rapidly increasing wealth of factual data indicates that no giant glaciations were actually there.

We document the occurrence in December 2015 of unprecedented high monthly mean temperatures in the observational record of mountain sites in the eastern Alps. For the first time in the last 150 years mean December temperature exceeded 0 °C at elevations between 2100 and 2500 m, with December mean anomalies exceeding 6.5 °C with respect to the 1971–2000 mean. Along with the absence of snow cover, such temperatures might have lead to unprecedented winter ablation of glaciers in this elevation range. Smaller temperature anomalies occurred in surrounding low elevation sites, highlighting the key role of topography in this event. Specifically, strong inversions associated with the very stable synoptic conditions during the month amplified the anomalies at the high elevations of the mountain glacier sites. We analyze the processes underlying this exceptional event and place this anomaly within the context of future warming scenarios over the region.

Aim: Species richness patterns are generally thought to be determined by abiotic variables at broad spatial scales, with biotic factors being only important at fine spatial scales. However, many organism groups depend intimately on other organisms, raising questions about this generalization. As an example, woodpeckers (Picidae) are closely associated with trees and woody habitats because of multiple morphological and ecological specializations. In this study, we test whether this strong biotic association causes woodpecker diversity to be closely linked to tree availability at a global scale.Location: Global.Methods: We used spatial and non‐spatial regressions to test for relationships between broad‐scale woodpecker species richness and predictor variables describing current and deep‐time availability of trees, current climate, Quaternary climate change, human impact, topographical heterogeneity and biogeographical region. We further used structural equation models to test for direct and indirect effects of predictor variables.Results: There was a strong positive relationship between woodpecker species richness and current tree cover and annual precipitation, respectively. Precipitation also showed a strong indirect effect on woodpecker richness via the effects on tree availability. Deep‐time tree availability, Quaternary climate change, human influence and other abiotic factors showed weaker direct effects. Human influence had a negative effect on tree availability, and hence a negative indirect effect on woodpecker species richness.Main conclusions: Global species richness of woodpeckers is primarily shaped by current tree cover and precipitation, reflecting a strong biotic association between woodpeckers and trees. Human influence can have a negative effect on woodpecker diversity when humans reduce tree availability. Hence, woodpeckers exemplify how broad‐scale diversity patterns are predominantly shaped by a biotic factor, and how climate and human influence can have indirect effects on animal biodiversity via the effects on tree availability and forest cover.

The presence of a low- to mid-latitude interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw is apparent over orbital and glacial-interglacial timescales, but its existence over the most recent past remains unclear. Here we investigate, based on climate proxy reconstructions from both hemispheres, the inter-hemispherical phasing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the low- to mid-latitude teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 2000 years. A clear feature is a persistent southward shift of the ITCZ during the Little Ice Age until the beginning of the 19th Century. Strong covariation between our new composite ITCZ-stack and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) records reveals a tight coupling between these two synoptic weather and climate phenomena over decadal-to-centennial timescales. This relationship becomes most apparent when comparing two precisely dated, high-resolution paleorainfall records from Belize and Scotland, indicating that the low- to mid-latitude teleconnection was also active over annual-decadal timescales. It is likely a combination of external forcing, i.e., solar and volcanic, and internal feedbacks, that drives the synchronous ITCZ and NAO shifts via energy flux perturbations in the tropics.

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness. CO2 concentration constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence on CO2 concentration, the quantitative relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and biomass burning is not well understood. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial–interglacial changes in biomass burning to an increase in CO2, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided last glacial maximum (LGM) climate anomalies – that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate – from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase~2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes from biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed prediction biases in contemporary regional average values for biomes. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux at the LGM was in the range of 1.0–1.4 Pg C year-1, about a third less than that modelled for PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) yielded unrealistic results, with global biomass burning fluxes similar to or even greater than in the pre-industrial climate. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on primary production and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

The isotopic composition of carbon (Δ14C and δ13C) in atmospheric CO2 and in oceanic and terrestrial carbon reservoirs is influenced by anthropogenic emissions and by natural carbon exchanges, which can respond to and drive changes in climate. Simulations of 14C and 13C in the ocean and terrestrial components of Earth system models (ESMs) present opportunities for model evaluation and for investigation of carbon cycling, including anthropogenic CO2 emissions and uptake. The use of carbon isotopes in novel evaluation of the ESMs' component ocean and terrestrial biosphere models and in new analyses of historical changes may improve predictions of future changes in the carbon cycle and climate system. We compile existing data to produce records of Δ14C and δ13C in atmospheric CO2 for the historical period 1850–2015. The primary motivation for this compilation is to provide the atmospheric boundary condition for historical simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) for models simulating carbon isotopes in the ocean or terrestrial biosphere. The data may also be useful for other carbon cycle modelling activities.

Peatlands are a major terrestrial carbon store and a persistent natural carbon sink during the Holocene, but there is considerable uncertainty over the fate of peatland carbon in a changing climate. It is generally assumed that higher temperatures will increase peat decay, causing a positive feedback to climate warming and contributing to the global positive carbon cycle feedback. Here we use a new extensive database of peat profiles across northern high latitudes to examine spatial and temporal patterns of carbon accumulation over the past millennium. Opposite to expectations, our results indicate a small negative carbon cycle feedback from past changes in the long-term accumulation rates of northern peatlands. Total carbon accumulated over the last 1000 yr is linearly related to contemporary growing season length and photosynthetically active radiation, suggesting that variability in net primary productivity is more important than decomposition in determining long-term carbon accumulation. Furthermore, northern peatland carbon sequestration rate declined over the climate transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the Little Ice Age (LIA), probably because of lower LIA temperatures combined with increased cloudiness suppressing net primary productivity. Other factors including changing moisture status, peatland distribution, fire, nitrogen deposition, permafrost thaw and methane emissions will also influence future peatland carbon cycle feedbacks, but our data suggest that the carbon sequestration rate could increase over many areas of northern peatlands in a warmer future.

Widespread ecological reorganizations and increases in organic carbon (OC) in lakes across the Northern Hemisphere have raised concerns about the impact of the ongoing climate warming on aquatic ecosystems and carbon cycling. We employed diverse biogeochemical techniques on a high-resolution sediment record from a subarctic lake in northern Finland (70°N) to examine the direction, magnitude and mechanism of change in aquatic carbon pools prior to and under the anthropogenic warming. Coupled variation in the elemental and isotopic composition of the sediment and a proxy-based summer air temperature reconstruction tracked changes in aquatic production, depicting a decline during a cool climate interval between ~1700–1900 C.E. and a subsequent increase over the 20th century. OC accumulation rates displayed similar coeval variation with temperature, mirroring both changes in aquatic production and terrestrial carbon export. Increase in sediment organic content over the 20th century together with high inferred aquatic UV exposure imply that the 20th century increase in OC accumulation is primarily connected to elevated lake production rather than terrestrial inputs. The changes in the supply of autochthonous energy sources were further reflected higher up the benthic food web, as evidenced by biotic stable isotopic fingerprints.

The response of diatom assemblages to changes in climate and nutrients over a 1200 year timescale was investigated by means of a multiproxy sediment core study involving radiometric dating, diatoms, grain size, loss on ignition and geochemical analysis. Four stages of environmental change were defined, each being consistent with changes in documented human activity and known climate patterns. From ad 750 to 880 relatively high nutrient status and a cold, unstable climate was inferred based on the high abundance of Aulacoseira subarctica and high Na/K and Na/Al values. In the following 1000 years (AD 880-1880) diatom assemblages were dominated by Cyclotella comensis, Cyclotella radiosa and Achnanthidium minutissimum, suggesting a long period of relatively low productivity and, by implication, that climate was the main control on the community during this period. Two climatic phases, namely the 'Medieval Warm Period' (MWP) and the 'Little Ice Age' (LIA), were apparent. According to shifts in the diatom assemblages and other proxies, it was proposed that the MWP was initiated from similar to AD 880 and was terminated by the LIA at similar to AD 1350. After AD 1880 the palaeoecological data revealed a period of strong human impact in the catchment and hence higher productivity. This work illustrates the complexity of climate-nutrient interactions and the roles of the two drivers on different timescales and at various stages of the lake's history: climate impacts were more pronounced when nutrient concentrations were relatively stable prior to similar to AD 1880; while nutrients appeared to play a more important role in regulating diatom communities from the mid-eighteenth century.

The phylogeography of thornback rays (Raja clavata) was assessed from European waters, using five nuclear microsatellite loci and mitochondrial cytochome b sequences. Strong regional differentiation was found between the Mediterranean basin, the Azores and the European continental shelf. Allelic and haplotype diversities were high in Portuguese populations, consistent with the existence of a refugium along the Iberian Peninsula. Unexpectedly, high diversity was also found in the English Channel/North Sea area. The lowest genetic diversity was found in the Black Sea. Populations sampled from the Mediterranean, Adriatic and Black Seas were characterized by a single mitochondrial haplotype. This haplotype was also the most ancestral and widespread outside of the Mediterranean basin except for the Azores. Populations from the Azores were dominated by a second ancestral haplotype which was shared with British populations. Results from multidimensional scaling, amova and nested clade analysis indicate that British waters are a secondary contact zone recolonized from at least two refugia - one around the Iberian Peninsula and one possibly in the Azores. Links to a potential refugium known as the Hurd Deep, between Cornwall and Brittany, are discussed. Finally, a historical demographic analysis indicates that thornback ray populations started to expand between 580 000 and 362 000 years ago, which suggests that the Last Glacial Maximum (20 000 years ago) had mainly affected the distribution of populations rather than population size.

This study presents a Holocene sediment budget for the Valdaine Region, located at the edge of the southern French Pre-Alps. Holocene colluvial and alluvial deposition are quantified based on existing and new field data. Average sediment thickness values were calculated for different landscape units, and available chronological data were used to make a time-differentiated sediment budget. Total Holocene colluvial deposition in the Valdaine (334 km2) amounts 167 × 106m3, while alluvial deposition in the Roubion and Jabron catchments (in total 610 km2, including their catchment upstream the Valdaine) amounts 177 × 106m3. Especially, colluvial deposition is high (0.75 × 106g/m2) compared with other catchments. Three major deposition periods (8500–2000 bc, 700 bc–ad 800 and ad 1200–2000) and two periods of relative hillslope stability with local fluvial incision (2000–700 bc and ad 800–1200) set the framework for a time-differentiated sediment budget. Results show that depositional phases relate to intense land use and hillslope stability and fluvial incision to land abandonment. Catchment averaged colluvial deposition increases from 13 × 10−6m3/m2/yr for 8500–2000 bc to 355 × 10−6m3/m2/yr for ad 1200–2000, while alluvial deposition increases from 16 to 147 × 10−6m3/m2/yr between the same time periods. A relationship with climatic fluctuations was not found because of the limited temporal resolution of the sediment budget. The derived sediment cascade model shows how alluvial sediments change from fine (silt and clay) to coarse (sand and gravel) after ad 1200. This went along with the establishment of a braided river pattern, indicating that the main source of sediment shifted to the mountainous headwaters. Further research including fingerprinting and modeling would be necessary to further understand the sediment budget and to more accurately quantify the different source areas and the export from the catchment.

A climate response function is introduced that consists of six exponential (low-pass) filters with weights depending as a power law on their e-folding times. The response of this two-parameter function to the combined forcings of solar irradiance, greenhouse gases, and SO2-related aerosols is fitted simultaneously to reconstructed temperatures of the past millennium, the response to solar cycles, the response to the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption, and the modern 1850-2010 temperature trend. Assuming strong long-term modulation of solar irradiance, the quite adequate fit produces a climate response function with a millennium-scale response to doubled CO2 concentration of 2.0 +- 0.3 K (mean +- standard error), of which about 50% is realized with e-folding times of 0.5 and 2 years, about 30% with e-folding times of 8 and 32 years, and about 20% with e-folding times of 128 and 512 years. The transient climate response (response after 70 years of 1% yearly rise of CO2 concentration) is 1.5 +- 0.2 K. The temperature rise from 1820-1950 can be attributed for about 70% to increased solar irradiance, while the temperature changes after 1950 are almost completely produced by the interplay of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. The SO2-related forcing produces a small temperature drop in the years 1950-1970 and an inflection of the temperature curve around the year 2000. Fitting with a tenfold smaller modulation of solar irradiance produces a less adequate fit with millennium-scale and transient climate responses of 2.5 +- 0.4 K and 1.9 +- 0.3 K, respectively., 25 pages, 9 figures; in press, Climate Dynamics

A goal of phylogeography is to relate patterns of genetic differentiation to potential historical geographic isolating events. Quaternary glaciations, particularly the one culminating in the Last Glacial Maximum similar to 21 ka (thousands of years ago), greatly affected the distributions and population sizes of temperate marine species as their ranges retreated southward to escape ice sheets. Traditional genetic models of glacial refugia and routes of recolonization include these predictions: low genetic diversity in formerly glaciated areas, with a small number of alleles/haplotypes dominating disproportionately large areas, and high diversity including "private'' alleles in glacial refugia. In the Northern Hemisphere, low diversity in the north and high diversity in the south are expected. This simple model does not account for the possibility of populations surviving in relatively small northern periglacial refugia. If these periglacial populations experienced extreme bottlenecks, they could have the low genetic diversity expected in recolonized areas with no refugia, but should have more endemic diversity (private alleles) than recently recolonized areas. This review examines evidence of putative glacial refugia for eight benthic marine taxa in the temperate North Atlantic. All data sets were reanalyzed to allow direct comparisons between geographic patterns of genetic diversity and distribution of particular clades and haplotypes including private alleles. We contend that for marine organisms the genetic signatures of northern periglacial and southern refugia can be distinguished from one another. There is evidence for several periglacial refugia in northern latitudes, giving credence to recent climatic reconstructions with less extensive glaciation. NSF; Marbef [GOCE-CT-2003-505446]; Intra-European Marie Curie Fellowship [EIF-024781]; 6th European Community Framework Program info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The phylogeography of thornback rays (Raja clavata) was assessed from European waters, using five nuclear microsatellite loci and mitochondrial cytochome b sequences. Strong regional differentiation was found between the Mediterranean basin, the Azores and the European continental shelf. Allelic and haplotype diversities were high in Portuguese populations, consistent with the existence of a refugium along the Iberian Peninsula. Unexpectedly, high diversity was also found in the English Channel/North Sea area. The lowest genetic diversity was found in the Black Sea. Populations sampled from the Mediterranean, Adriatic and Black Seas were characterized by a single mitochondrial haplotype. This haplotype was also the most ancestral and widespread outside of the Mediterranean basin except for the Azores. Populations from the Azores were dominated by a second ancestral haplotype which was shared with British populations. Results from multidimensional scaling, amova and nested clade analysis indicate that British waters are a secondary contact zone recolonized from at least two refugia - one around the Iberian Peninsula and one possibly in the Azores. Links to a potential refugium known as the Hurd Deep, between Cornwall and Brittany, are discussed. Finally, a historical demographic analysis indicates that thornback ray populations started to expand between 580 000 and 362 000 years ago, which suggests that the Last Glacial Maximum (20 000 years ago) had mainly affected the distribution of populations rather than population size.

Closely spaced sequences of accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS) 14C dates of peat deposits display century-scale wiggles which can be fitted to the radiocarbon calibration curve. By wiggle-matching such sequences, high-precision calendar age chronologies can be generated which show that changes in mire surface wetness during the Bronze Age/Iron Age transition (c. 850 cal. BC) and the ‘Little Ice Age’ (Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Minima) occurred during periods of suddenly increasing atmospheric concentration of 14C. Replicate evidence from peat-based proxy climate indicators in northwest Europe suggest these changes in climate may have been driven by temporary declines of solar activity. Carbon-accumulation rates of two raised peat bogs in the UK and Denmark record low values during the ‘Little Ice Age’ which reflects reduced primary productivity of the peat-forming vegetation during these periods of climatic deterioration.

The presence of a low-to mid-latitude interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw is apparent over orbital and glacial-interglacial timescales, but its existence over the most recent past remains unclear. Here we investigate, based on climate proxy reconstructions from both hemispheres, the inter-hemispherical phasing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the low-to mid-latitude teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 2000 years. A clear feature is a persistent southward shift of the ITCZ during the Little Ice Age until the beginning of the 19th Century. Strong covariation between our new composite ITCZ-stack and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) records reveals a tight coupling between these two synoptic weather and climate phenomena over decadal-to-centennial timescales. This relationship becomes most apparent when comparing two precisely dated, high-resolution paleorainfall records from Belize and Scotland, indicating that the low-to mid-latitude teleconnection was also active over annual-decadal timescales. It is likely a combination of external forcing, i.e., solar and volcanic, and internal feedbacks, that drives the synchronous ITCZ and NAO shifts via energy flux perturbations in the tropics., Scientific Reports, 7, ISSN:2045-2322