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In this study, a multispecies gadget model (GadCap) simulating the interactions among the Flemish Cap cod (Gadus morhua), redfish (Sebastes spp.), and shrimp (Pandalus borealis) has been incorporated as the operating model in a management strategy evaluation (MSE) framework (a4a-FLR) to test the performance of multiple combinations of harvest control rules (HCRs) for the three stocks when recruitment uncertainty and assessment error are accounted for. The results indicate that due to the strong trophic interactions, it is not possible to achieve the precautionary exploitation of all the stocks at the same time. Maintaining shrimp biomass above the limit reference point (Blim) would require unsustainable fishing pressure on cod and redfish to reduce predation mortality. In contrast, maintaining cod biomass above Blim would involve high predation on and high risk of collapse of the shrimp and redfish stocks. The implementation of alternative two-stage HCRs would reduce predation, resulting in higher productivity and lower probability of collapse for cod and redfish. The results of this study support the need of accounting for species interactions when designing management strategies for a group of interdependent commercial stocks.

Fisheries management typically aims at controlling exploitation rate (e.g., Fbar) to ensure sustainable levels of stock size in accordance with established reference points (e.g., FMSY, BMSY). Population selectivity (“selectivity” hereafter), that is the distribution of fishing mortality over the different demographic components of an exploited fish stock, is also important because it affects both Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and FMSY, as well as stock resilience to overfishing. The development of an appropriate metric could make selectivity operational as an additional lever for fisheries managers to achieve desirable outcomes. Additionally, such a selectiv-ity metric could inform managers on the uptake by fleets and effects on stocks of various technical measures. Here, we introduce three criteria for selectivity metrics: (a) sensitivity to selectivity changes, (b) robustness to recruitment variability and (c) robustness to changes in Fbar. Subsequently, we test a range of different selectivity metrics against these three criteria to identify the optimal metric. First, we simulate changes in selectivity, recruitment and Fbar on a virtual fish stock to study the met-rics under controlled conditions. We then apply two shortlisted selectivity metrics to six European fish stocks with a known history of technical measures to explore the metrics’ response in real-world situations. This process identified the ratio of F of the first recruited age–class to Fbar (Frec/Fbar) as an informative selectivity metric for fisheries management and advice.

The adoption of the Precautionary Approach requires providing advice that is robust to uncertainty. Therefore, when conducting stock assessment alternative, model structures and data sets are commonly considered. The primary diagnostics used to compare models are to examine residuals patterns to check goodness-of-fit and to conduct retrospective analysis to check the stability of estimates. However, residual patterns can be removed by adding more parameters than justified by the data, and retrospective patterns removed by ignoring the data. Therefore, neither alone can be used for validation, which requires assessing whether it is plausible that a system identical to the model generated the data. Therefore, we use hindcasting to estimate prediction skill, a measure of the accuracy of a predicted value unknown by the model relative to its observed value, to explore model misspecification and data conflicts. We compare alternative model structures based on integrated statistical and Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models using, as an example, Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna. Validation is not a binary process (i.e. pass or fail) but a continuum; therefore, we discuss the use of prediction skill to identify alternative hypotheses, weight ensemble models and agree on reference sets of operating models when conducting Management Strategy Evaluation.

Fishery managers must often reconcile conflicting estimates of population status and trend. Superensemble models, commonly used in climate and weather forecasting, may provide an effective solution. This approach uses predictions from multiple models as covariates in an additional "superensemble" model fitted to known data. We evaluated the potential for ensemble averages and superensemble models (ensemble methods) to improve estimates of population status and trend for fisheries. We fit four widely applicable data-limited models that estimate stock biomass relative to equilibrium biomass at maximum sustainable yield (B/BMSY). We combined these estimates of recent fishery status and trends in B/BMSY with four ensemble methods: an ensemble average and three superensembles (a linear model, a random forest and a boosted regression tree). We trained our superensembles on 5,760 simulated stocks and tested them with cross-validation and against a global database of 249 stock assessments. Ensemble methods substantially improved estimates of population status and trend. Random forest and boosted regression trees performed the best at estimating population status: inaccuracy (median absolute proportional error) decreased from 0.42 -0.56 to 0.32 -0.33, rank-order correlation between predicted and true status improved from 0.02 - 0.32 to 0.44 - 0.48 and bias (median proportional error) declined from - 0.22 - 0.31 to - 0.12 - 0.03. We found similar improvements when predicting trend and when applying the simulation-trained superensembles to catch data for global fish stocks. Superensembles can optimally leverage multiple model predictions; however, they must be tested, formed from a diverse set of accurate models and built on a data set representative of the populations to which they are applied.

The exploitation status of marine fisheries stocks worldwide is of critical importance for food security, ecosystem conservation, and fishery sustainability. Applying a suite of data-limited methods to global catch data, combined through an ensemble modeling approach, we provide quantitative estimates of exploitation status for 785 fish stocks. Fifty six percent (439 stocks) are below BMSY and of these, 261 are estimated to be below 80% of the BMSY level. While the 178 stocks above 80% of BMSY are conventionally considered “fully exploited”, stocks staying at this level for many years, forego substantial yield. Our results enable managers to consider more detailed information than simply a categorization of stocks as “fully” or “over” exploited. Our approach is reproducible, allows consistent application to a broad range of stocks, and can be easily updated as new data become available. Applied on an ongoing basis, this approach can provide critical, more detailed information for resource management for more exploited fish stocks than currently available. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Effort rights-based fisheries management (RBM) is less widely used than catch rights, whether for groups or individuals. Because RBM on catch or effort necessarily requires a total allowable catch (TAC) or total allowable effort (TAE), RBM is discussed in conjunction with issues in assessing fish populations and providing TACs or TAEs. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages, and there are trade-offs between the two approaches. In a narrow economic sense, catch rights are superior because of the type of incentives created, but once the costs of research to improve stock assessments and the associated risks of determining the TAC and costs of monitoring, control, surveillance and enforcement are taken into consideration, the choice between catch or effort RBM becomes more complex and less clear. The results will be case specific. Hybrid systems based on both catch and effort are increasingly employed to manage marine fisheries to capture the advantages of both approaches. In hybrid systems, catch or effort RBM dominates and controls on the other supplements. RBM using either catch or effort by itself addresses only the target species stock externality and not the remaining externalities associated with by-catch and the ecosystem.

The current fish stock assessment process in Europe can be very resource- and time-intensive. The scientists involved require a very particular set of skills, acquired over their career, drawing from biology, ecology, statistics, mathematical modelling, oceanography, fishery policy, and computing. There is a particular focus on producing a single “best” stock assessment model, but as fishery science advances, there are clear needs to address a range of hypotheses and uncertainties, from large-scale issues such as climate change to specific ones, such as high observation error on young hake. Key to our discussion is the use of the assessment for all frameworks to translate hypotheses into models. We propose a change to the current stock assessment procedure, driven by the use of model averaging to address a range of plausible hypotheses, where increased collaboration between the varied disciplines within fishery science will result in more robust advice., JRC.G.3-Maritime affairs

The current fish stock assessment process in Europe can be very resource- and time-intensive. The scientists involved require a very particular set of skills, acquired over their career, drawing from biology, ecology, statistics, mathematical modelling, oceanography, fishery policy, and computing. There is a particular focus on producing a single “best” stock assessment model, but as fishery science advances, there are clear needs to address a range of hypotheses and uncertainties, from large-scale issues such as climate change to specific ones, such as high observation error on young hake. Key to our discussion is the use of the assessment for all frameworks to translate hypotheses into models. We propose a change to the current stock assessment procedure, driven by the use of model averaging to address a range of plausible hypotheses, where increased collaboration between the varied disciplines within fishery science will result in more robust advice.

The scombrids (tunas, bonitos, Spanish mackerels and mackerels) sustain some of the most important fisheries in the world and their sustainable management depends on better understanding of their life history strategies. Here, we first assemble life history information on maximum size, growth, longevity, maturity, fecundity and spawning duration and interval for all scombrid species., JRC.G.4-Maritime affairs

Meta-analytic and multi-level stock–recruit analyses have traditionally focussed on the similar stock approach, but for a specific stock–recruit model. For six European herring stocks we embed both the stock and model levels within a fully Bayesian hierarchical framework, thus permitting the consideration of a wider class of models, specifically those that do not admit parameterisation via the steepness and unfished spawning potential. Model and parametric uncertainty is jointly characterised and the challenge of addressing model selection when the model itself is part of the hierarchy is addressed using the deviance information criterion (DIC) and posterior predictive analysis. For the six herring stocks the across-stock posterior evidence in favour of over-compensatory dynamics is fairly strong, with the Ricker and Shepherd models performing the best across the model-selection criteria. For a specific model form we perform a 20 year retrospective analysis (hierarchical and non-hierarchical) to see how temporal information flow occurs in a hierarchical framework, how this can improve our estimates of key parameters, and how this might influence management paradigms (such as Maximum Sustainable Yield) that are based on such estimates.

Sex change is widespread among marine fishes, including many species that are fished heavily, and is thought to be of conservation concern under some circumstances. As such, an important question in conservation is whether the implementation of marine protected areas (MPAs), which is a commonly used marine conservation tool, works as effectively for sex-changers as for non-sex-changers. To address this issue, we used meta-analyses of the ratio of fish abundances inside vs. outside MPAs to determine whether sex change affects the extent to which fish densities respond to protection. When all data were considered, there were similar responses to protection irrespective of reproductive mode. However, when analyses were restricted to older reserves (at least 10 years’ protection), female-first sex-changers consistently benefited from protection. Non-sex-changers and male-first sex-changers showed more variable responses to protection and, as a result, there were no significant differences between fish with different reproductive modes in their overall response to protection. The same results were observed when the effects of fisheries status (targeted vs. not targeted) were controlled. Our results support the use of MPAs as important components of conservation and demonstrate that old reserves are most consistently beneficial to female-first sex-changing species. Finally, our results highlight the fact that some effects of protection are only detectable after several generations.

Larger-bodied species in a wide range of taxonomic groups including mammals, fishes and birds tend to decline more steeply and are at greater risk of extinction. Yet, the diversity in life histories is governed not only by body size, but also by time-related traits. A key question is whether this size-dependency of vulnerability also holds, not just locally, but globally across a wider range of environments. We test the relative importance of size- and time-related life-history traits and fishing mortality in determining population declines and current exploitation status in tunas and their relatives. We use high-quality datasets of half a century of population trajectories combined with population-level fishing mortalities and life-history traits. Time-related traits (e.g. growth rate), rather than size-related traits (e.g. maximum size), better explain the extent and rate of declines and current exploitation status across tuna assemblages, after controlling for fishing mortality. Consequently, there is strong geographical patterning in population declines, such that populations with slower life histories (found at higher cooler latitudes) have declined most and more steeply and have a higher probability of being overfished than populations with faster life histories (found at tropical latitudes). Hence, the strong, temperature-driven, latitudinal gradients in life-history traits may underlie the global patterning of population declines, fisheries collapses and local extinctions.

Meta-analyses of published data for 19 marine reserves reveal that marine protected areas enhance species richness consistently, but their effect on fish abundance is more variable. Overall, there was a slight (11%) but significant increase in fish species number inside marine reserves, with all reserves sharing a common effect. There was a substantial but non-significant increase in overall fish abundance inside marine reserves compared to adjacent, non-reserve areas. When only species that are the target of fisheries were considered, fish abundance was significantly higher (by 28%) within reserve boundaries. Marine reserves vary significantly in the extent and direction of their response. This variability in relative abundance was not attributable to differences in survey methodology among studies, nor correlated with reserve characteristics such as reserve area, years since protection, latitude nor species diversity. The effectiveness of marine reserves in enhancing fish abundance may be largely related to the intensity of exploitation outside reserve boundaries and to the composition of the fish community within boundaries. It is recommended that studies of marine reserve effectiveness should routinely report fishing intensity, effectiveness of enforcement and habitat characteristics.

The scombrids (Family Scombridae), commonly known as tunas, bonitos, Spanish mackerels, and mackerels, play an important role as predators and prey in coastal and oceanic marine ecosystems, and sustain some of the most important fisheries in the world. Knowledge of their basic biology and life history traits, such as growth, age and maturity, is fundamental to sustainably manage these species, and maintain their critical role in marine ecosystems. Given the economic and social importance of their fisheries in many regions throughout the world, numerous life history studies have been conducted in the last century. Despite efforts to create global repositories of life history parameters, e.g. FishBase, many life history studies remain scattered and not readily accessible. Here, we compiled 667 life history studies published between 1933 and 2012 describing the growth, age, and reproductive biology of the 51 species of scombrids distributed around the world and create a standardized life history dataset including maximum size, longevity, growth, maturity, fecundity, spawning season and frequency, and egg size information. We created this dataset to promote the best use of the existing life history information and with the intention of providing a data resource suitable to test large-scale ecological hypotheses on life history strategies and life history evolution, as well as support the management and conservation of this important group of commercially exploited species. We envisage the large repository of standardized life history data compiled will make this endeavor more effective and robust by providing a valuable resource that can help address many research questions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Tunas and their relatives dominate the world’s largest ecosystems and sustain some of the most valuable fisheries. The impacts of fishing on these species has been debated intensively over the past decade, giving rise to divergent views on the scale and extent of the impacts of fisheries on pelagic ecosystems. We use all available age-structured stock assessments to evaluate the adult biomass trajectories and exploitation status of 26 populations of tunas and their relatives (17 tunas, 5 mackerels and 4 Spanish mackerels) from 1953 to 2006. Overall, there has been a 48% global decline in total adult biomass over the last half century. The trajectories of individual populations depend on the interaction between life histories, ecology and fishing pressure. The steepest declines are exhibited by two distinct groups: the largest longest-lived temperate tunas and the smaller short-lived mackerels, both with most of their populations being overexploited. The remaining populations, mostly tropical tunas have been fished down to approximately maximum sustainable yield levels preventing further expansion of these fisheries. Fishing mortality has increased steadily to the point where around 15% of the tunas and their relatives are killed each year globally. Overcapacity of these fisheries is jeopardizing the long-term sustainability of these species. To guarantee higher catches, stable profits, and reduce collateral impacts on marine ecosystems requires rebuilding of overexploited populations and stricter management measures to reduce overcapacity., JRC.G.4-Maritime affairs

Kell, L. T., Mosqueira, I., Grosjean, P., Fromentin, J-M., Garcia, D., Hillary, R., Jardim, E., Mardle, S., Pastoors, M. A., Poos, J. J., Scott, F., and Scott, R. D. 2007. FLR: an open-source framework for the evaluation and development of management strategies. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 640–646. The FLR framework (Fisheries Library for R) is a development effort directed towards the evaluation of fisheries management strategies. The overall goal is to develop a common framework to facilitate collaboration within and across disciplines (e.g. biological, ecological, statistical, mathematical, economic, and social) and, in particular, to ensure that new modelling methods and software are more easily validated and evaluated, as well as becoming widely available once developed. Specifically, the framework details how to implement and link a variety of fishery, biological, and economic software packages so that alternative management strategies and procedures can be evaluated for their robustness to uncertainty before implementation. The design of the framework, including the adoption of object-orientated programming, its feasibility to be extended to new processes, and its application to new management approaches (e.g. ecosystem affects of fishing), is discussed. The importance of open source for promoting transparency and allowing technology transfer between disciplines and researchers is stressed.

Scombrids (tunas, bonitos, Spanish mackerels and mackerels) support important fisheries in tropical, subtropical and temperate waters around the world, being one of the most economically- and socially-important marine species globally. Their sustainable exploitation, management and conservation depend on accurate life history information for the development of quantitative fisheries stock assessments, and in the fishery data-poor situations for the identification of vulnerable species. Here, we assemble life history traits (maximum size, growth, longevity, maturity, fecundity, spawning duration and spawning interval) for the 51 species of scombrids globally. W, JRC.G.4-Maritime affairs