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Spatial mapping is one of the most useful methods to display information about the seismic parameters of a certain area. As in b-value time series, there is a certain arbitrariness regarding the function selected as smoothing kernel (which plays the same role as the window size in time series). We propose a new method for the calculation of the smoothing kernel as well as its parameters. Instead of using the spatial cell-event distance we study the distance between events (event-event distance) in order to calculate the smoothing function, as this distance distribution gives information about the event distribution and the seismic sources. We examine three different scenarios: two shallow seismicity settings and one deep seismicity catalog. The first one, Italy, allows calibration and showcasing of the method. The other two catalogs: the Lorca region (Spain) and Vrancea County (Romania) are examples of different function fits and data treatment. For these two scenarios, the prior to earthquake and after earthquake b-value maps depict tectonic stress changes related to the seismic settings (stress relief in Lorca and stress build-up zone shifting in Vrancea). This technique could enable operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and tectonic source profiling given enough data in the time span considered. This research has been supported by the Horizon 2020 (TURNkey (grant no. 821046)) and the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (grant no. PID2021-123135OB-C21).

The objective of the study is to quantify the effect of climate change on the climatic risks associated with droughts and diminished water resources in the eastern Iberian Peninsula. For this purpose, this work analyses the 70-year historical series (1952–2021) of daily rainfall data from 353 meteorological stations. They are located in a key recharge area of the hydrological system, the Sierra de Albarracín, where three important rivers originate, namely the Tagus, the Júcar and the Turia, as do several tributaries of the Guadiana and Ebro rivers. It analyses trends in: annual and seasonal rainfall volumes with specific studies about their intensity according to certain percentiles; the number of rainy days, dry spell duration (< 1 mm/day) and drought evolution with the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index. The most relevant results are: (1) the second 35 years of the study period (1987–2021) were notably drier than the first part (1952–1986), with smaller volumes and fewer days with recorded precipitation; (2) summer and winter were most affected by pluviometric decrease, with losses of >50% of rainfall volume at some stations; (3) moderate rainfall significantly reduced between the 50th and 95th percentiles, which were more important in the system's water recharge; (4) the stations with a negative precipitation trend predominated; (5) the medium- and long-term analyses (12 and 36 months) highlighted the drought situation in which the headwaters of the analyzed basins are immersed. The trend indicates that the situation will become critical. This study has been funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through Research Project PID2020-118797RB-I00 (MCIN/ AEI /10.13039/501100011033) and by the Generalitat Valenciana with Research Project PROMETEO/2021/016 (Conselleria d'Innovació, Universitats, Ciència i Societat Digital).

Background: The carcinogenesis of colorectal cancer (CRC) is a multifactorial process involving both environmental and host factors, such as human genetics or the gut microbiome, which in CRC patients appears to be enriched in oral microorganisms. The aim of this work was to investigate the presence and activity of Parvimonas micrain CRC patients. To do that, samples collected from subgingival sulcus and neoplastic lesions were used for culturomics. Then, samples from different body locations (saliva, gingival crevicular fluid, feces, non-neoplastic colon mucosa, transition colon mucosa, adenocarcinoma, adenomas, metastatic and non-neoplastic liver samples) were used for 16S rRNA metabarcoding and metatranscriptomics. Whole genome sequencing was conducted for all P. micrastrains obtained. Results: Several P. micraisolates from the oral cavity and adenocarcinoma tissue from CRC patients were obtained. The comparison of oral and tumoral P. micra genomes identified that a pair of clones (PM89KC) were 99.2% identical between locations in one CRC patient, suggesting that the same clone migrated from oral cavity to the gut. The 16S rRNA metabarcoding analysis of samples from this patient revealed that P. micra cohabits with other periodontal pathogens such as Fusobacterium, Prevotella or Dialister, both in the intestine, liver and the subgingival space, which suggests that bacterial translocation from the subgingival environment to the colon or liver could be more efficient if these microorganisms travel together forming a synergistic consortium. In this way, bacteria might be able to perform tasks that are impossible for single cells. In fact, RNA-seq of the adenocarcinoma tissue confirmed the activity of these bacteria in the neoplastic tissue samples and revealed that different oral species, including P. micra, were significantly more active in the tumor compared to non-neoplastic tissue from the same individuals. Conclusion: P. micra appears to be able to translocate from the subgingival sulcus to the gut, where oral bacteria adapt to the new niche and could have a relevant role in carcinogenesis. According to our findings, periodontal disease, which increases the levels of these pathogens and facilitates their dissemination, could represent a risk factor for CRC development and P. micra could be used as a non-invasive CRC biomarker.

Spatial mapping is one of the most useful methods to display information about the seismic parameters of a certain area. As in b-value times series, there is a certain arbitrariness regarding the function selected as smoothing kernel (which plays the same role as the window size in time series). We propose a new method for the calculus of the smoothing kernel as well as its parameters. Instead of using the spatial cell–event distance we study the distance between events (inter-event distance) in order to calculate the smoothing function, as this distance distribution gives information about the event distribution and the seismic sources. We examine three different scenarios: two shallow seismicity settings and one deep seismicity catalogue. The first one, Italy, allows to calibrate and showcase the method. The other two catalogues: Lorca (Spain) and the Vrancea county (Romania) are examples of different function fits and data treatment. For these two scenarios, the prior-earthquake and after-earthquake b-value maps depict tectonic stress changes related to the seismic settings (stress relief in Lorca and stress build-up zone shifting in Vrancea). This technique could enable operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and tectonic source profiling given enough data in the time-span considered.

Weather forecasts affect many persons’ lives and are used by the general public on a daily basis. However, they are not perfect, and there is an uncertainty associated with the current weather forecasts; users should be aware of this uncertainty. Previous research analyzes the perceptions, uses, and interpretations of uncertainty of Spanish undergraduate students. This study continues with this research line, but we investigate the degree of confidence and communication preferences of students enrolled in three meteorology-related subjects taught at two universities in Spain. We evaluated to what extent students trust in the current weather forecasts and analyzed how students are aware of the uncertainty associated with the forecasts considering different lead times. In addition, we assessed how students value the forecast of several weather elements as well as the students’ preferences for deterministic versus nondeterministic forecasts under two weather situations, with different degree of complexity in the forecast communication. A Google Form questionnaire was developed to address these issues. The survey was conducted in 2018/19, and 101 participants anonymously filled out the survey. Participants were enrolled in three different subjects taught in the degree in marine sciences at the University of Alicante and the degrees in environmental sciences and physics at the University of Valencia. Results show that students have a well-formed opinion of weather forecasts, both for confidence and in relation to the trend found in the current weather forecasts toward less accurate forecasts for larger lead times. For students’ preferences for deterministic versus nondeterministic forecasts, a significant majority of participants prefer weather forecasts that incorporate some uncertainty; a minority prefer single-valued (deterministic) forecasts. In comparing our results with those found in previous studies in different countries and contexts, similar outcomes are observed in general, but some differences are highlighted as well. This work has been funded by the Assistance Programmes of the University of Alicante “Programa de Redes-I3CE de calidad, innovación e investigación en docencia universitaria. Convocatoria 2018-19. Alicante: Instituto de Ciencias de la Educación (ICE) de la Universidad de Alicante. Ref: [4334],” “Programa de Redes-I3CE de calidad, innovación e investigación en docencia universitaria. Convocatoria 2019-20. Alicante: Instituto de Ciencias de la Educación (ICE) de la Universidad de Alicante. Ref: [4669],” and “Programa de Redes-I3CE de calidad, innovación e investigación en docencia universitaria. Convocatoria 2020-21. Alicante: Instituto de Ciencias de la Educación (ICE) de la Universidad de Alicante. Ref: [5150].”

Background Hereditary fructose intolerance (HFI) is a rare inborn error of fructose metabolism caused by the deficiency of aldolase B. Since treatment consists of a fructose-, sucrose- and sorbitol-restrictive diet for life, patients are at risk of presenting vitamin deficiencies. Although there is no published data on the status of these vitamins in HFI patients, supplementation with vitamin C and folic acid is common. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess vitamin C and folate status and supplementation practices in a nationwide cohort of HFI patients. Methods Vitamin C and folic acid dietary intake, supplementation and circulating levels were assessed in 32 HFI patients and 32 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. Results Most of the HFI participants presented vitamin C (96.7%) and folate (90%) dietary intake below the recommended population reference intake. Up to 69% received vitamin C and 50% folic acid supplementation. Among HFI patients, 15.6% presented vitamin C and 3.1% folate deficiency. The amount of vitamin C supplementation and plasma levels correlated positively (R = 0.443; p = 0.011). Interestingly, a higher percentage of non-supplemented HFI patients were vitamin C deficient when compared to supplemented HFI patients (30% vs. 9.1%; p = 0.01) and to healthy controls (30% vs. 3.1%; p Conclusions Our results provide evidence for the first time supporting vitamin C supplementation in HFI. There is great heterogeneity in vitamin supplementation practices and, despite follow-up at specialised centres, vitamin C deficiency is common. Further research is warranted to establish optimal doses of vitamin C and the need for folic acid supplementation in HFI.

The present study evaluates ground-based downward surface shortwave radiation (Rs) over the coastal region of Alicante (Southeastern Spain). Hourly measurements collected over the eleven-year period 2010-2020 are used. Two weather stations located over the region capital, Alicante, have been selected as representative of urban and suburban typologies. Two additional weather stations far from the city have been selected representing rural typologies. Rs is significantly reduced over the urban station during the morning hours within the winter season compared to the observations recorded over the suburban and rural stations, with a global mean difference of -81 and -120 W/m2 at 10 LT, respectively. However, no significant differences are obtained during the midday sun, with a global mean difference of -20 W/m2 between the urban and rural stations. With the aim of explaining these differences, the current paper investigates the relationship between Rs and different air pollutants: NOx, SO2, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) as well as the wind field measured at the urban and suburban stations. The results found in this work point towards a close relationship between Rs and NOx concentrations annual cycles, which are also influenced by the prevailing wind circulations observed over the study area. A global mean NOx concentration of 107 μg/m3 is observed over the urban station at 10 LT during the winter season. In contrast, these high concentrations are significantly reduced over the suburban station, with global mean value of 40 μg/m3 at 10 LT, for this period of the year. This work was supported by the Assistance Programmes of the University of Alicante “Programa de Redes-I3CE de calidad, innovación e investigación en docencia universitaria. Convocatoria 2018-19. Alicante: Instituto de Ciencias de la Educación (ICE) de la Universidad de Alicante. Ref: [4334].” and “Programa de Redes-I3CE de calidad, innovación e investigación en docencia universitaria. Convocatoria 2020-21. Alicante: Instituto de Ciencias de la Educación (ICE) de la Universidad de Alicante. Ref: [5150].” as well as by Research Group VIGROB-116 (University of Alicante).

99 Background: TASBEV, compared with TAS-102, was associated with an improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) with tolerable toxicity in a randomized, open-label phase 2 trial. However, the subgroups of patients who may benefit from long-term TASBEV treatment are unknown. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, observational study of patients (pts) with mCRC refractory or intolerant to standard therapies treated with TAS-102 30-35 mg/m2 twice daily on days 1–5 and 8–12 every 28 days plus BEV 5 mg/kg on days 1 and 15 at University Hospital a Coruña (Spain). Results: We recorded 47 pts treated between July 2019 to June 2022. Median age was 65 years (range 41 – 82 years), 78.7% ECOG PS0-1, 51.1% RASmt, 78.7% of pts had liver and 23.4%, peritoneal metastases; 29.8% time since diagnosis of 1st metastases

The current study evaluates the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to forecast surface energy fluxes over a region in Eastern Spain. Focusing on the sensitivity of the model to Land Surface Model (LSM) parameterizations, we compare the simulations provided by the original Noah LSM and the Noah LSM with multiple physics options (Noah-MP). Furthermore, we assess the WRF sensitivity to different Noah-MP physics schemes, namely the calculation of canopy stomatal resistance (OPT_CRS), the soil moisture factor for stomatal resistance (OPT_BTR), and the surface layer drag coefficient (OPT_SFC). It has been found that these physics options strongly affect the energy partitioning at the land surface in short-time scale simulations. Aside from in situ observations, we use the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) sensor to assess the Land Surface Temperature (LST) field simulated by WRF. Regarding multiple options in Noah-MP, WRF has been configured using three distinct soil moisture factors to control stomatal resistance (β factor) available in Noah-MP (Noah, CLM, and SSiB-types), two canopy stomatal resistance (Ball–Berry and Jarvis), and two options for surface layer drag coefficients (Monin–Obukhov and Chen97 scheme). Considering the β factor schemes, CLM and SSiB-type β factors simulate very low values of the latent heat flux while increasing the sensible heat flux. This result has been obtained independently of the canopy stomatal resistance scheme used. Additionally, the surface skin temperature simulated by Noah-MP is colder than that obtained by the original Noah LSM. This result is also highlighted when the simulated surface skin temperature is compared to the MSG-SEVIRI LST product. The largest differences between the satellite data and the mesoscale simulations are produced using the Noah-MP configurations run with the Monin–Obukhov parameterization for surface layer drag coefficients. In contrast, the Chen97 scheme shows larger surface skin temperatures than Monin–Obukhov, but at the expense of a decrease in the simulated sensible heat fluxes. In this regard, the ground heat flux and the net radiation play a key role in the simulation results. This research was funded by the Assistance Programmes of the University of Alicante “Programa de Redes-I3CE de calidad, innovación e investigación en docencia universitaria. Convocatoria 2018–2019. Alicante: Instituto de Ciencias de la Educación (ICE) de la Universidad de Alicante. Ref: [4334].” and “Programa de Redes-I3CE de calidad, innovación e investigación en docencia universitaria. Convocatoria 2020-21. Alicante: Instituto de Ciencias de la Educación (ICE) de la Universidad de Alicante. Ref: [5150].” as well as by Research Group VIGROB-116 (University of Alicante) and by the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación through the project PID2020-118797RB-I00/AEI.

306 Background: Non-standardized data collection in medical records has a negative impact on the quality of care: it increases the possibility of medical errors, hinders the performance of clinical studies, precludes the development of improvement plans and impedes accreditation in quality-of-care programs. The ASCO QOPI (Quality Oncology Practice Initiative) certification program accredits the quality of care of oncology departments through a self-assessment process. An overall quality score (OQS) above 75% on 26 measures that focus on quality of care and patient safety is required for application. In order to begin the certification process, we analysed the quality of the data collected in our initial medical history to implement improvement actions. Methods: Based on the 26 QOPI measures, plus 17 additional measures that were chosen by consensus as relevant, we performed a retrospective baseline analysis of the data collected in the initial medical history of patients assessed in June 2021. Patients with breast cancer, colorectal cancer and non-small cell lung carcinomas who initiated systemic treatment were included. Those who participated in clinical trials were excluded. The OQS of the 26 patients analyzed was 59%. Given this negative result, and once the problem was identified, the objective was established (OQS > 75%), changes were prioritized and an improvement plan was developed based on rounds of training, feedback and reinforcement to the entire medical team, and through the design of a template with the essential data to be collected. Results: With the baseline result of June 2021 (n = 26; OQS = 59%), improvement rounds were performed in November 2021 (n = 29; OQS = 82%), December 2021 (n = 26; OQS = 74%), January 2002 (n = 35; OQS = 75%), February 2022 (n = 32; OQS = 78%) and March 2022 (n = 31; OQS = 79%). Conclusions: Correct data collection in medical records is essential for quality of care. Simple short-term measures based on training, feedback and reinforcement, and the creation of a data template, have increased OQS from 59% to exceed the 75% threshold required by QOPI to apply for the certification program. However, a long-term sustainable plan needs to be established through the introduction of computerized checklists in the free-text electronic medical history.

8562 Background: Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma (MPM) has been characterized by an immune suppressive microenvironment. The immune checkpoint (IC) VISTA is notably expressed in MPM, in contrast to other IC proteins such us PD-L1. Recently, CD47 has been described as a possible diagnostic biomarker for MPM, although its impact in prognosis has not been established yet. Methods: This is a retrospective observational study of immunotherapy naïve MPM patients. Immunochemistry (IHC) assessment of PD-L1, VISTA and CD47 protein expression was performed on tissue microarray of 46 surgical samples. Means were compared using Mann-Whitney U test. Correlation was estimated using Pearson’s coefficients. Overall survival (OS) was assessed using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models. A two-sided alpha error of 0.05 was used to assess statistical significance. Statistical analysis was conducted with Stata/SE version 16.1. Results: A total of 46 patients, 71.7% (33/46) male, were included in our study. Among them, 77.8% (35/45) had stage IIIB-IV, 84.8% (39/46) had received systemic therapy and 16.7% (7/42) had undergone radical-intent surgery. Asbestos exposure was confirmed in 65,7% (23/35) patients. Regarding the histological subtype, 71.7% (33/46) were epithelioid (Ep) and 13.0% (6/46) non-epithelioid (NEp), including 5 sarcomatoid and 1 biphasic. In IHC analysis, VISTA and CD47 were expressed in 63.0% (29/46) and 58.7% (27/46), respectively, whereas only 28.3% (13/46) patients had positive PD-L1 expression (≥1%). Median expression of VISTA, CD47 and PD-L1 in tumor samples was 41.8 (95% IC 0.5 - 50.7), 26.3 (95% IC 0 - 45.8) and 0 (95% IC 0-0.5), respectively. VISTA and CD47 expression were significantly higher in the Ep subgroup vs. the NEp subgroup (VISTA 39.4% vs 7.2% p = 0.028; CD47 37.3 vs. 0.8 p = 0.01). Additionally, we found a significant positive correlation between VISTA and CD47 protein expression (Pearson's r = 0.55, p < 0.001), which was consistent with the results we found in an independent MPM patient series from TCGA PanCancer Atlas (N = 87) based on RNA expression (r = 0.46; p < 0.001). Median OS, available in 40/46 cases, was 16.6 months (95% CI 12.03-20.43). On multivariate analysis, CD47 ≥1% expression was significantly associated with longer OS (29.7 vs 10.53 months, HR 0.35, [IC 95% 0.14-0.86]; p = 0.02) after adjusting for histological subtype, PDL1 and VISTA expression. In contrast, PD-L1 ≥1% showed a trend towards worse prognosis (10.3 vs 19.3 months), without reaching statistical significance (HR 2.23 [95% IC 0.95-5.23]; p = 0.065). No OS differences were found regarding VISTA expression. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first study to describe VISTA and CD47 correlation in MPM. Moreover, we demonstrate CD47 expression to be an independent prognostic marker in MPM, suggesting C47 may play a key role in tumor biology of MPM, for which further validation and functional studies are necessary.

Hereditary Fructose Intolerance (HFI) is an autosomal recessive inborn error of metabolism characterised by the deficiency of the hepatic enzyme aldolase B. Its treatment consists in adopting a fructose-, sucrose-, and sorbitol (FSS)-restrictive diet for life. Untreated HFI patients present an abnormal transferrin (Tf) glycosylation pattern due to the inhibition of mannose-6-phosphate isomerase by fructose-1-phosphate. Hence, elevated serum carbohydrate-deficient Tf (CDT) may allow the prompt detection of HFI. The CDT values improve when an FSS-restrictive diet is followed, however, previous data on CDT and fructose intake correlation are inconsistent. Therefore, we examined the complete serum sialoTf profile and correlated it with FSS dietary intake and with hepatic parameters in a cohort of paediatric and adult fructosemic patients. To do so, the profiles of serum sialoTf from genetically diagnosed HFI patients on an FSS-restricted diet (n = 37) and their age-, sex- and body mass index-paired controls (n = 32) were analysed by capillary zone electrophoresis. We found that in HFI patients, asialoTf correlated with dietary intake of sucrose (R = 0.575, p &lt, 0.001) and FSS (R = 0.475, p = 0.008), and that pentasialoTf+hexasialoTf negatively correlated with dietary intake of fructose (R = −0.386, p = 0.024) and FSS (R = −0.400, p = 0.019). In addition, the tetrasialoTf/disialoTf ratio truthfully differentiated treated HFI patients from healthy controls, with an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of 0.97, 92% sensitivity, 94% specificity and 93% accuracy.

This quantitative study evaluates how 71 Spanish undergraduate students perceive and interpret the uncertainty inherent to deterministic forecasts. It is based on several questions that asked participants what they expect given a forecast presented under the deterministic paradigm for a specific lead time and a particular weather parameter. In this regard, both normal and extreme weather conditions were studied. Students’ responses to the temperature forecast as it is usually presented in the media expect an uncertainty range of ±1°–2°C. For wind speed, uncertainty shows a deviation of ±5–10 km h−1, and the uncertainty range assigned to the precipitation amount shows a deviation of ±30 mm from the specific value provided in a deterministic format. Participants perceive the minimum night temperatures as the least-biased parameter from the deterministic forecast, while the amount of rain is perceived as the most-biased one. In addition, participants were then asked about their probabilistic threshold for taking appropriate precautionary action under distinct decision-making scenarios of temperature, wind speed, and rain. Results indicate that participants have different probabilistic thresholds for taking protective action and that context and presentation influence forecast use. Participants were also asked about the meaning of the probability-of-precipitation (PoP) forecast. Around 40% of responses reformulated the default options, and around 20% selected the correct answer, following previous studies related to this research topic. As a general result, it has been found that participants infer uncertainty into deterministic forecasts, and they are mostly used to take action in the presence of decision-making scenarios. In contrast, more difficulties were found when interpreting probabilistic forecasts. This work has been funded by the Assistance Programme of University of Alicante “Programa de Redes-I3CE de calidad, innovación e investigación en docencia universitaria. Convocatoria 2019-20. Alicante: Instituto de Ciencias de la Educación (ICE) de la Universidad de Alicante. Ref: [4669].”

A daily rainfall database covering the Júcar and Segura river basin authorities (east Iberian Peninsula, Spain) with high spatial density without gaps (890 series) has been created for the complete period 1955–2016. This has allowed a trend analysis of precipitation and dry/wet spells with a better spatial detail and coverage of key headwaters sectors than previous studies in this area. Results show significant negative trends for precipitation prevailing in Júcar area (an annual average loss of 51 mm), especially towards its north interior headwaters. For this last one the annual loss exceeds 200 mm (20% of precipitation). By contrast, certain pre‐littoral sectors and most of the Segura area are remaining out of these negative trends (some local positive trends). However, the dry spells length and the number of dry days have increased in a generalized way (Júcar and Segura basins) with rainfall concentration in time and space. The decrease of moderate rainfall with greater precipitation effectiveness and weight in the key interior headwaters is the most significant. On the contrary, there has been an increase in extreme torrential rainfall (with poor effectiveness and high risk) at points on the coast and pre‐littoral towards south of the region. These results are linked to a change in the frequency of three basic synoptic types identified in the region as rainfall origin. European Regional Development Fund, Grant/Award Number: CGL2015‐64268‐R (MINECO/FEDER, UE); Generalitat Valenciana, Grant/Award Number: PROMETEOII/2014/086; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Grant/Award Number: CGL2015‐64268‐R (MINECO/FEDER, UE).

Land Surface Models (LSM) have shown some difficulties to properly simulate day-time 2-m air and surface skin temperatures. This kind of models are coupled to atmospheric models in mesoscale modelling, such as the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. This model coupling is used within Numerical Weather Prediction Systems (NWP) in order to forecast key physical processes for agricultural meteorology and forestry as well as in ecological modelling. The current study first evaluates the surface energy fluxes and temperatures simulated by these two state-of-the-art NWP models over two distinct vegetated covers, one corresponding to a poor and sparsely vegetated area and the other one corresponding to the tall and well-vegetated area of a forest. On the other hand, the importance of parameterizing the thermal roughness length within the LSM coupled to the corresponding atmospheric model is also evaluated. The LEAF-3 LSM is used within the RAMS modelling environment while the Noah-MP LSM is applied within WRF. Results indicate that the original version of the models underestimates the temperature during the day, more remarkably in the forested area, whereas modifications in the thermal roughness length successfully simulates the temperature and sensible heat flux forecasts over this area. This study highlights the key role of the surface exchange processes when coupling land and atmosphere models. In this regard, incorporating an extra resistance in the surface-layer parameterization through the thermal roughness length is essential to simulate well both temperatures and sensible heat fluxes, which becomes more relevant over tall and well-vegetated areas, such as a forest. This extra resistance for heat exchange prevents effective molecular diffusion in the layer between the momentum roughness length and the thermal roughness length. Additionally, an appropriate description of the canopy height permits to apply an improved surface-layer formulation over different land and vegetation covers. This work has been funded by the Regional Government of Valencia through the project PROMETEOII/2014/086 and by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad and the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) through the project CGL2015-64268-R (MINECO/FEDER,UE).

We present a procedure for exposure and vulnerability evaluation that integrates LiDAR, orthophotos, and other ancillary datasets. It comprises three phases: (1) city stratification into homogeneous regions; (2) exposure database compilation; and (3) vulnerability allocation using predictive modelling. We have conducted two applications in Lorca (Spain) and Port-au-Price (Haiti) and here we compare them. Each phase of the method is subject to variations due mainly to data availability; however, it does not affect the final accuracy that remains high in both scenarios (over 80%). It is a flexible procedure that is able to adapt to the particular features of two different cities.

The Valencia coastal region (Western Mediterranean) is especially sensitive to extreme heat events, where they are really common. However, due to its geophysical characteristics and climatic conditions, the incidence of high and extreme temperatures may still be modulated over this area by means of sea breeze circulations, defining a Sea Breeze Convergence Zone (SBCZ) due to the meet and interaction of these mesoscale conditions and Western synoptic-scale wind regimes. A proper definition of this convergence zone is of significant importance over the study area for the simulation and forecast of intense-heat meteorological events. This study analyses a week period in August 2010 over this area, which alternates the presence of meteorological conditions prone to high and extreme temperatures with sea breeze conditions that temper these extreme temperatures. The simulations have been performed using the mesoscale model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The analysis focuses on the ability of different initial conditions and technical features and two widely used planetary boundary layer parameterizations to forecast and reproduce the observed high and extreme temperatures, as well as to properly capture the main associated atmospheric patterns. It has been found that an increased horizontal resolution in the initial atmospheric fields produces a better representation of the regional and local wind flows simulated by the mesoscale model, leading to an accurate characterization of the temperature fields when these wind circulations dominate over the area of study. However, no significant differences are obtained within the intense-heat situations, associated with atmospheric synoptic-scale forcings. Regarding PBL parameterizations, the local PBL scheme tends to underestimate the daytime temperatures, while the non-local scheme produces higher temperatures than the local scheme, skilfully reproducing the observations. Additionally, the non-local scheme overestimates temperatures at night-time, but it suitably captures the observed high minimum temperatures produced by the Western synoptic conditions. This work has been funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad and the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) through the project CGL2015-64268-R (MINECO/FEDER,UE).

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is being used for different and diverse purposes, ranging from atmospheric and dispersion of pollutants forecasting to agricultural meteorology and ecological modelling as well as for hydrological purposes, among others. The current paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the RAMS forecasts, comparing the results not only with observed standard surface meteorological variables, measured at FLUXNET stations and other portable and permanent weather stations located over the region of study, but also with non-standard observed variables, such as the surface energy fluxes, with the aim of evaluating the surface energy budget and its relation with a proper representation of standard observations and key physical processes for a wide range of applications. In this regard, RAMS is assessed against in-situ surface observations during a selected period within July 2011 over Eastern Spain. In addition, the simulation results are also compared with different surface remote sensing data derived from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) (MSG-SEVIRI) as well as the uncoupled Land Surface Models (LSM) Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Both datasets complement the available in-situ observations and are used in the current study as the reference or ground truth when no observations are available on a selected location. Several sensitivity tests have been performed involving the initial soil moisture content, by adjusting this parameter in the vertical soil profile ranging from the most superficial soil layers to those located deeper underground. A refined adjustment of this parameter in the initialization of the model has shown to better represent the observed surface energy fluxes. The results obtained also show an improvement in the model forecasts found in previous studies in relation to standard observations, such as the air temperature and the moisture fields. Therefore, the application of a drier or wetter soil in distinct soil layers within the whole vertical soil profile has been found to be crucial in order to produce a better agreement between the simulation and the observations, thus reiterating the determining role of the initial soil moisture field in mesoscale modelling, but in this case considering the variation of this parameter vertically.

The Valencia region, on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, is propitious to heavy precipitation, especially the area encompassing the South of Valencia province and the North of the Alicante province. In October 2007 a torrential rain affected the aforementioned area, producing accumulated rainfall values greater than 400 mm in less than 24 h and flash-floods that caused extensive economic losses and human casualties. This rain event has been studied in numerical experiments using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. The present paper deals with the effect of using the different convective parameterizations (CP) currently implemented in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (Kuo and Kain-Fritsch) in the forecast results, in particular on precipitation forecast. Sensitivity tests have been run with and without these parameterizations activated in a series of combinations of the different grids. Results are very different depending on the model convective parameterization setting. A statistical verification has also been undertaken by calculating different skill scores for each simulation in the experiment.

A torrential rain event took place in the Valencia region in October 2007, mainly affecting coastal areas and nearby mountains in the center-south of the region, in northern Alicante province. More than 400 mm in 24 h were recorded at some stations in these areas, with lower accumulations in the rest of the region where rainfall was less intense. In the first part of this work a description of the meteorological situation is given. The synoptic frame of the event is characterised by an advection of easterly maritime winds across the Western Mediterranean, lasting for at least 48 h, driving moist air towards the Iberian Peninsula eastern coast and the presence of an upper level isolated low over Eastern Iberian Peninsula. Then, the results of numerical simulations using the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System model are shown to study the rain event in detail. The Regional Atmospheric Modelling System reproduces satisfactorily the spatial distribution of the rainfall and the rain period, but it underestimates precipitation in the areas with the most intense values. Finally, a sensitivity test was performed in order to evaluate the role of orography in the rain event, showing the importance of orography as a triggering mechanism.

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale models are being used for weather and air quality studies as well as forecasting tools in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. In the current study, we perform a comparative assessment of these models under distinct typical atmospheric conditions, classified according to the dominant wind flow and cloudiness, over Eastern Iberian Peninsula. This study is focused on the model representation of key physical processes in terms of meteorology and surface variables during a 7-days period in summer 2011. The hourly outputs produced by these two models are compared not only with observed standard surface variables, measured at different permanent weather stations located over the region of study, but also with different surface remote sensing products and uncoupled Land Surface Models (LSM) datasets. Confronting RAMS and WRF, the current study highlights relevant differences over areas near the coast when mesoscale circulations or Eastern synoptic advections are developed over the region of study. A higher moisture content is observed under these atmospheric conditions, due to the moisture transport by the sea breeze inland. In this regard, it has been found that the Eastern wind field simulated by WRF reaches inland areas and comprises a larger sea breeze extension than RAMS. This sea breeze development impacts meteorology and surface variables in locations not too close to the coast, but still affected by land-sea winds. Additionally, WRF remains more windy and moister than RAMS at night-time, while alike results are found under Western synoptic advections. The results obtained in the current paper show differences under distinct dominant atmospheric conditions, which outline further research in this field in order to achieve more general conclusions. This work has been funded by the Regional Government of Valencia through the project PROMETEOII/2014/086 and by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad and the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) through the project CGL2015-64268-R (MINECO/FEDER,UE).

Atmospheric mesoscale numerical models are commonly used not only for research and air quality studies, but also for other related applications, such as short-term weather forecasting for atmospheric, hydrological, agricultural and ecological modelling. A key element to produce faithful simulations is the proper representation of the soil parameters used in the initialization of the corresponding mesoscale numerical model. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is used in the current study. The model code has been updated in order to permit the model to be initialized using a heterogeneous soil moisture and temperature distribution derived from land surface models. Particularly, RAMS has been adapted to incorporate the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) dataset for the initialization of the corresponding soil parameters. The results obtained using this heterogeneous initialization are compared to the model results obtained by the default homogeneous RAMS initializations. A series of numerical experiments have been conducted for a 7-days period over eastern Spain within the 2011 summer season. The selected period covers different typical summer atmospheric situations from the region of study. Ground data from two FLUXNET stations, together with the measurements registered by a portable weather station, located over the region of study, and other permanent weather stations are used for the result assessment. Incorporating the GLDAS product in the initialization of RAMS has been found to remarkably improve the representation of surface sensible weather parameters. On the other hand, significant differences are still observed in the proper simulation of the surface parameters when the model is applied to well vegetated areas in comparison to those obtained over poor and/or sparsely vegetated regions. Considering the better agreement found in this latter case, we have performed several sensitivity tests regarding land-surface-atmosphere coupling with the aim of improving the original results over well vegetated areas. This work has been funded by the Regional Government of Valencia through the project PROMETEOII/2014/086. The Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness with co-funding from the European Development Regional Fund (MINECO/FEDER, UE; Project AGL2014-55658-R, FORESTRENGTH), and the Education, Culture and Sports Department of the Castilla-La Mancha Regional Council with co-funding from the European Development Regional Fund (FEDER) (Project PEIC-2014- 002-P, ECOFLUX III) are acknowledged for funding the acquisition of surface fluxes data for RAMS validation.

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) version 6.0 has been used to investigate the impact and influence of initial soil moisture distributions on mesoscale circulations. To do this, two different events have been selected from the 2011 summer season: one at the beginning of the season (June) and the other one at the end of the season (August). For each of these mesoscale frameworks a total of five distinct simulations were performed varying the initial soil moisture content: a control run and four additional sensitivity tests. The control run, corresponding to a low soil moisture content, is the one used within the real-time weather forecasting system implemented in the Valencia Region. In the corresponding sensitivity simulations this low value has been progressively increased in different steps until the original soil moisture content doubled. It has been found that high soil moisture is associated with colder near-surface temperature, a moister relative humidity and a slightly lower near-surface wind speed, whereas a drier soil resulted in a dryer relative humidity, warmer temperature and a slight low-level wind. In general, the highest soil moisture contents are required to reproduce the near-surface daily cycles of temperature and relative humidity through higher values of latent heat flux and lower values of sensible heat flux. In this regard, moistening the soil improves the previous results obtained using the RAMS configuration used within the operational forecasting system. However, the wind speed is not quite sensitive to changes in the soil moisture content over flatter terrain. Finally, although a warming and dryer mixing layer is obtained with the lowest soil moisture content, the mixing layer height remains practically unchanged when using the distinct configurations over flat terrain. These differences are enhanced over more complex terrain.

The meteorological model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) in its version 4.4 has been applied operationally within the Valencia Region. The model output is being used as support for a heat-wave warning system, a wind forecasting system for fire warnings and prevention, and for general forecasting tasks. For the winter period of 2010–2011 and the summer period of 2011, the model version 6.0 has been included within the operational forecast environment. In this study, the verification of the model using both versions has been performed taking advantage of the automatic weather stations from the CEAM network and located within this area. Surface meteorological observations have been compared with the RAMS forecasts in an operational verification focused on computing different statistical data for coastal and inland stations. This verification process has been carried out both for the summer and the winter seasons of the year separately. As a result, it has been revealed that the model presents significant differences in the forecast of the meteorological variables analyzed throughout both periods of the year. Moreover, the model presents different degrees of accuracy between coastal and inland stations as well as for both versions of RAMS for the meteorological variables investigated. On the other hand, we have also found that there is little difference in the magnitudes analyzed within the two daily RAMS cycles and that RAMS is very stable in maintaining skillful forecast results at least for three forecast days, although the performance of the simulation slightly decreases as the simulation moves forward.

e13061 Background: Smoking is the leading cause of avoidable death in the world. Although controversial for years, current prospective studies suggest that smoking increases the risk of cancer in women with a deleterious BRCA1/2 mutation. Actually, we have very limited information about tobacco habit among BRCA1/2 carriers. Methods: We report an observational retrospective study of a consecutive sample of 198 BRCA1/2 carriers studied between April 2014 and March 2018 at the Family Cancer Clinic of the University Hospital of Coruña (NW-Spain). The main objective of the study is to know the prevalence of smoking in BRCA1/2 women, and to determine if carriers undergoing risk-reducing surgeries (RRS) abandon their tobacco habit as part of the primary prevention strategy. Results: The sample includes 136 patients affected by cancer (84% breast, 19% ovary) and 62 healthy women. During their follow-up [Median = 22, (1-43) months], 85 carriers underwent RRS (29% mammary, 54% prophylactic salpingo-oophorectomy, 16% both). At first visit, 46 were active smokers, 47 ex-smokers, 77 non-smokers and 28 did not specify their habit. The percentage of smokers and never smokers is similar between sick and healthy BRCA1/2 carriers, presenting a greater proportion of former smokers among those affected of cancer (30% vs. 23%), and of active smokers among healthy women (35% vs. 23%) [p > 0.5)]. Moreover, 23% of BRCA1/2 carriers are active smokers despite a previous diagnosis of cancer. RRS are not associated to a greater tobacco cessation, persisting in the habit 18% of the women that underwent any preventive surgery (p > 0.5). Conclusions: Smoking habit is high (55%) among BRCA1/2 carriers followed at our family cancer clinic. At least 23% of our BRCA1/2 positive women are active smokers despite a previous diagnosis of cancer.The performance of aggressive RRS is not associated with greater abandonment of tobacco in carriers, persisting in the smoking habit 18% of operated women.It is essential to improve anti-tobacco strategies in family cancer consultations if we want to be efficient in the management of high-risk cancer individuals.

Extreme heat weather events have received increasing attention and has become of special importance as they can remarkably affect sectors as diverse as public health, energy consumption, water resources, natural biodiversity and agricultural production. In this regard, summer temperatures have become a parameter of essential interest under a framework of a hypothetical increase in the number of intense-heat conditions. Thus, their forecast is a crucial aspect bearing in mind a mitigation of the effects and impacts that these intense-heat situations could produce. The current work tries to reach a better understanding of these sorts of situations that are really common over the Western Mediterranean coast. An extreme heat episode that took place in the Valencia Region in July 2009 is analysed, based on the simulations performed with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). This event recorded maximum temperatures exceeding 40 °C amply extended over the region besides reaching minimum temperatures up to 25.92 °C. We examine the role of improved skin and soil temperature (ST) initial conditions in the forecast results by means of different modelling and satellite-derived products. The influence of incorporating the Land Surface Temperature (LST) into RAMS is not found to produce a meaningful impact on the simulation results, independently of the resolution of the dataset used in the initial conditions of the model. In contrast, the introduction of the ST in lower levels, not only the skin temperature, has a more marked decisive effect in the simulation. Additionally, we have evaluated the influence of increasing the number of soil levels to spread deeper underground. This sensitivity experiment has revealed that more soil levels do not produce any meaningful impact on the simulation compared to the original one. In any case, RAMS is able to properly capture the observed patterns in those cases where a Western advection is widely extended over the area of study. This region’s variability in orography and in distances to the sea promotes the development of sea-breeze circulations, thus producing a convergence of two opposite wind flows, a Western synoptic advection and a sea-breeze circulation. As a result, the RAMS skill in those cases where a sea breeze is well developed depends on the proper location of the boundary and convergence lines of these two flows. This work has been funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad and the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) through the project CGL2015-64268-R (MINECO/FEDER, UE), by the Regional Government of Valencia through the project PROMETEOII/2014/086 and by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad through the project CGL2011-30433-C02-02 (MINECO).

Solar radiation is a key factor in the Earth’s energy balance and it is used as a crucial input parameter in many disciplines such as ecology, agriculture, solar energy and hydrology. Thus, accurate information of the global downward surface shortwave flux integration into the grid is of significant importance. From the different strategies used for grid integration of the surface solar radiation estimates, satellite-derived and numerical weather prediction forecasts are two interesting alternatives. In the current work, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the global downward solar radiation forecasts provided by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the Downwelling Surface Shortwave Flux (DSSF) product, derived from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). Both solar radiation estimates are compared to thirteen ground-based weather station measurements for the winter 2010–2011 and the summer 2011 seasons. For these periods, the most recent versions of RAMS (4.4 and 6.0) were running in parallel within the real-time weather forecasting system implemented over the Valencia Region. The solar radiation performance and accuracy are evaluated for these datasets segmented into two atmospheric conditions (clear and cloudy skies) and two terrain classes (flat and hilly). DSSF shows a very good agreement over the study area. Statistical daily evaluations show that corresponding errors vary between seasons, with absolute bias ranging from −30 to 40 W·m−2, absolute root mean square errors (RMSE) from 25 to 60 W·m−2, relative bias ranging from −11% to 7% and relative RMSE from 7% to 22%, depending on the sky condition and the terrain location as well, thus reproducing the observations more faithfully than RAMS, which produces higher errors in comparison to the measurements. In this regard, statistical daily evaluations show absolute bias values varying from −50 to 160 W·m−2, absolute RMSE from 60 to 240 W·m−2, relative bias ranging from −30% to 40% and relative RMSE from 10% to 80%, also depending on the daily initialization and the forecast horizon. This bias variability demonstrates that there is a different trend in the deviation of the model results in relation to the observations, both for the DSSF product and RAMS forecasts, and considering the summer and the winter seasons independently. In this regard, although there is an overestimation of the observed solar radiation within the summer months, this magnitude is underestimated during the winter. Finally, comparing this solar radiation estimates for different atmospheric conditions and different terrain classes, the best results are found under clear skies over flat terrain. This result is achieved using both methodologies.

This paper proposes the implementation of different non-local Planetary Boundary Layer schemes within the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) model. The two selected PBL parameterizations are the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) PBL and its updated version, known as the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL. YSU is a first-order scheme that uses non-local eddy diffusivity coefficients to compute turbulent fluxes. It is based on the MRF, and improves it with an explicit treatment of the entrainment. With the aim of evaluating the RAMS results for these PBL parameterizations, a series of numerical simulations have been performed and contrasted with the results obtained using the Mellor and Yamada (MY) scheme, also widely used, and the standard PBL scheme in the RAMS model. The numerical study carried out here is focused on mesoscale circulation events during the summer, as these meteorological situations dominate this season of the year in the Western Mediterranean coast. In addition, the sensitivity of these PBL parameterizations to the initial soil moisture content is also evaluated. The results show a warmer and moister PBL for the YSU scheme compared to both MRF and MY. The model presents as well a tendency to overestimate the observed temperature and to underestimate the observed humidity, considering all PBL schemes and a low initial soil moisture content. In addition, the bias between the model and the observations is significantly reduced moistening the initial soil moisture of the corresponding run. Thus, varying this parameter has a positive effect and improves the simulated results in relation to the observations. However, there is still a significant overestimation of the wind speed over flatter terrain, independently of the PBL scheme and the initial soil moisture used, even though a different degree of accuracy is reproduced by RAMS taking into account the different sensitivity tests. This work has been funded by the Regional Government of Valencia through the project PROMETEOII/2014/086 and by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad through the projects CGL2013-46862-C02-1-P and CGL2015-64268-R.

The CEAM Foundation (Valencia, Spain) has developed an operational ultraviolet index (UVI) forecasting system based on the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART) model. The main objective of this system is to provide the general public with a tool to minimize the impact of ultraviolet (UV) radiation, which can cause important human health problems. The system presented in this paper has been developed in collaboration with the Environment Department of the Regional Government of Valencia, and it replaces the one running until 2007. The new system substitutes the previously used Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) observed data with the total ozone column data forecasted from the Global Forecasting System (GFS) model. This has allowed the forecasting period to be increased from only 1 day in the original system to 3 days, with daily updates. The UVI forecast presented herein uses maps to show the hourly daytime evolution of the UV index on selected locations as well as the maximum UVI expected in the area of interest for the following 3 days (D, D+1, and D+2). The locations selected correspond to measurement stations equipped with erythemal radiation instruments. The UVI forecast information, the erythemal radiation experimental data, and other outreach information are supplied to the public through both the CEAM Meteorology and Climatology Program Web page and the Environment Department of the Regional Government of Valencia Web page.

A regional forecasting system based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is being run at the CEAM Foundation. The operational model involves several processes running in the background at specified times and executing a set of systematic steps. This system is being used as a support for a heat-wave warning system, a wind forecasting system for fire warning and prevention, and for general forecasting tasks. However, it is relatively difficult to use by researchers and forecasters without sophisticated information technology (IT) skill. In this paper, we report an effort to develop a tool to facilitate the monitoring of the system. This tool is based on the client-server architecture and enables those with little IT skill to monitor/control the state of the different processes involved in the real-time simulation. This tool has been successfully used in controlling the RAMS-based applications developed at CEAM since 2006. The design and the functionality and utilities of the tool reviewed in this paper could be exported and customized to be used by other research centres and institutions who offer services based on operational atmospheric models as routine jobs (MM5, WRF, etc.), as e.g. air pollution forecasting systems, other prevention and emergency response systems, etc.

The Valencia region, on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, is an area prone to torrential rains, especially the north of Alicante province and the south of Valencia province. In October 2007, a torrential rain event with accumulated rainfall values exceeding 400 mm in less than 24 h affected the aforementioned areas, producing flash floods that caused extensive economic losses and human casualties. Several simulations of this rain event have been performed with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to test the influence of the different convective parameterization scheme implemented in the model on the precipitation forecast.