Search

Illicit alcohol markets are widely viewed as exceptional phenomena. Partly in consequence, they are under-researched and have a low political profile in Britain. This article proceeds from a contrary understanding that illicit alcohol markets are actually persistent features of the history of modern Western societies. Based on original archival research, it examines how illicit alcohol markets in England and Wales changed but endured across the long nineteenth century (c.1789–1914). It charts the decline of wholly illegal alcohol markets and the increasing prominence of hybridized enterprises which entwined legal and illegal activities. Importantly, the article proposes a significant new conceptualization of illicit alcohol markets as everyday crimes. It then considers the implications of this argument for criminological research and alcohol policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grounded on an extensive literature review derived from evidence-based studies (e.g., scientific articles, institutional and technical reports, journalistic evidence, academic books, and book chapters), our article develops a qualitative analysis to address the following question: to what extent do the strategic motivations of states and organized crime groups converge/diverge in the context of the current Russo- Ukrainian conflict? This article is divided into three parts. The initial section delves into the interconnections between illicit markets and armed conflicts. Secondly, after acknowledging the background of organized crime in both countries and the emergence of the current Russo-Ukrainian war, it highlights the implications of this conflict on the dynamics of illicit markets. Finally, it analyzes the strategic motivations of states and organized crime within this setting, as well as its points of convergence and divergence. This research potentially explores the frequently wicked ties of (inter) national politics and criminal adaptation during (post-)war times in Eastern Europe and within the international system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sin tax is essential to reduce the harm caused by products like cannabis. However, excessive taxation may facilitate illicit markets. We examine sin tax policies' impact on legal and illicit cannabis markets in the selected US states. Using a Constant Elasticity of Substitution utility framework, we assess scenarios like sin tax increase and anti‐illicit cannabis policies. Our findings indicate high sin taxes may drive consumers to illicit markets, but anti‐illicit market policies could control its extent. However, there is a trade‐off between market size, tax revenue, consumers' utility, and illicit market control. Thus, optimizing sin tax policies is challenging, necessitating a second‐best approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The excised goods, such as alcoholic beverages and tobacco products, are the object of widespread smuggling and illegal circulation. This illegal activity leads to significant budget losses, affects the health of the population, and disrupts the level of competition in the market. In 2020 approximately 50% of all alcoholic beverages sold in Ukraine were illicit, resulting in significant tax revenue losses for the government. A 2021 report indicated that around 18.1% of the tobacco market in Ukraine was composed of smuggled or counterfeit products. This illicit market caused an estimated annual tax revenue loss of $250 million. The experience of Ukraine and Poland in the field of combating excise smuggling can be essential for the development of effective strategies and policies to combat this phenomenon. The aim of the article is to study the ways of countering illegal activities in the sphere of circulation of excise goods using the example of Ukraine and Poland. The research methodology includes: empirical method, document analysis method, comparison, and case study method. As a result of the study, an analysis of the effectiveness of Ukrainian and Polish legislation on taxation and control over the circulation of excise goods was carried out. The obtained findings can inform policymakers in Ukraine, Poland, and other European countries on how to refine and strengthen their legislation regarding the taxation and control of excised goods. Law enforcement agencies can utilize the research to improve their strategies for detecting and preventing smuggling activities, incorporating best practices identified in the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite recent growths in research exploring the nature and scope of the online illicit marketplace, there has been a dearth of criminological inquiry examining both the chronological and functional steps offenders use to exchange illegal firearms online. As a result, it is unclear what role and function active market participants have within the online illicit firearms market, including the process of advertising, purchasing, and delivering these weapons. The current study sought to address this gap in the literature through a crime script analysis of 19 vendors advertising weapons on the Dark Web. The step-by-step processes involved in the advertising, actualization, and acquisition of illicit firearms were examined in detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

"So They Can See How Bad We Are": Extreme Violence in Rio Grande Do Sul's Drug Market seeks to understand why factions and the individuals involved in the Rio Grande do Sul drug market resorted to extreme violence between 2016 and 2018. We concluded that the use of extreme violence was an essential instrument in the strategy of expansion of criminal groups in the drug market in the state. The use of violence as the main purpose of the action deepened the involvement of the subjects in the "war", pointing to a pattern of sociability, with codes of solidarity internal to the groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the criminal underworld, transactions generate risk for the parties involved, but in contrast to legal markets, parties are unable to turn to legal recourse when cheated in a transaction. Past research has found that many strategies can be used to manage conflicts, including self-help strategies (vengeance, discipline and rebellion, avoidance, negotiation, settlement, and tolerance) and third-party interventions. In the context of illicit drug markets, ostracism and threats or actual violence are also strategies that have been observed. In this paper, we surveyed 49 online illicit drug market vendors to explore the conflict experiences of drug dealers who participate in online and offline illicit drug markets. The paper aims to describe the conflict and victimization experiences of online drug dealers and to understand the mitigating effect of technologies on these conflicts. The results indicate that conflict and victimization experiences are rare for online drug dealers, but there are still many situations that are not mitigated by the use of anonymizing technologies like those used on online illicit markets. We demonstrate how these conflicts differ between online and physical drug markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Many illicit markets are transnational in nature: illicit products are consumed in a country different from the one in which they were produced. Therefore, reconstructing the trafficking network and estimating the size of cross-border illicit flows are crucial steps to gain better understanding of these crimes and to enforce actions aimed at countering them. In this respect, the present study outlines a methodology with which to map and size illicit flows and applies it in estimation of transnational cigarette trafficking flows. The proposed methodology traces each step in the paths followed by illicit cigarettes flowing from their origin to the final consumption country and then estimates the quantity of cigarettes moving between each pair of countries. It exploits data on consumption of illicit cigarettes in 57 countries located in Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa, together with data on seizure cases and geographical information for 158 countries worldwide. These data are combined by a function that assigns a likelihood value of illicit cigarettes being transported between any pair of countries. An algorithm is then implemented in order to identify the most likely paths from the origin to the destination country. By merging results for all the different combinations of origins and destinations, this study estimates the size of all cross-border illicit flows and reconstructs a dynamic transnational cigarette trafficking network for the period 2008–2017. The results highlight the multifaceted role of countries in the cigarette trafficking network, the emergence of identifiable cigarette trafficking routes, and the evolution over time of the structure of this transnational illicit network. Finally, the paper discusses how the methodology developed could be adapted to the study of other transnational crimes.

Banning flavors in tobacco and nicotine products may reduce youth initiation and prompt quit attempts but such bans may lead to illicit markets. We examined how likely current users would be to seek flavored products from illicit channels under various ban scenarios. Cross-sectional surveys of 2552 current users of menthol cigarettes or flavored cigars and 2347 users of flavored e-cigarettes were conducted between 2021 and 2022 in the United States. For each ban scenario, respondents reported if they would have intentions to seek the banned flavored products from any illicit channels and identified the specific illicit channel they would consider. Logistic regressions were used to estimate how the likelihood of having intentions to seek illicit channels was associated with demographics, ban scenarios, and status of tobacco use. Under various ban scenarios, 24–30% of people who smoked said they would seek illicit channels to obtain the banned products compared with 21–41% of dual users and 35–39% of users of flavored e-cigarettes. Online retailers were favored by people who smoked while users of flavored e-cigarettes favored local retailers. Heavy users were more likely to say they would try illicit channels. Under bans restricting more types of flavored tobacco products, users would be less likely to try illegal channels. A significant proportion of users of flavored tobacco and nicotine products would not reject using illicit banned products. Tailored programs are needed to apply to the groups with a higher risk of seeking illicit channels for banned products. • 24–30% of people who smoked would seek illicit channels for banned flavored products. • 21–41% of dual users and 35–39% of e-cigarette users would seek illicit channels. • Heavy users are more likely to seek illegal channels. • Comprehensive bans may decrease users' likelihood of trying illegal channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Opioid agonist therapy (OAT) has been available in a standard regime in the Czech Republic since 2000. Buprenorphine is the leading medication, while methadone is available only in a few specialised centres. There is an important leakage of buprenorphine onto the illicit market, and the majority of Czech opioid users are characterised by the misuse (and injecting) of diverted buprenorphine medications. Most prescribed buprenorphine for OAT is not covered by current national health insurance schemes, and patients have to pay considerable prices to afford their treatment. This affordability barrier together with limited accessibility is likely the leading factor of limited coverage of OAT and of recent stagnation in the number of patients in the official treatment programmes in the Czech Republic. It also encourages doctor shopping and the re-selling of parts of their medication at a higher price, which represents the main factor that drives the Czech illicit market for buprenorphine, but at the same time co-finances the medication of clients in official OAT programmes. Improving access to OAT by making it financially affordable is essential to further increase OAT coverage and is one of the factors that can reduce the illicit market with OAT medications.

Background: The U.S. opioid epidemic has caused substantial harm for over 20 years. Policy interventions have had limited impact and sometimes backfired. Experts recommend a systems modeling approach to address the complexities of opioid policymaking.Objectives: Develop a system dynamics simulation model that reflects the complexities and can anticipate intended and unintended intervention effects.Methods: The model was developed from literature review and data gathering. Its outputs, starting in 1990, were compared against 12 historical time series. Four illustrative interventions were simulated for 2020-2030: reducing prescription dosage by 20%, cutting diversion by 30%, increasing addiction treatment from 45% to 65%, and increasing lay naloxone use from 4% to 20%. Sensitivity testing was performed to determine effects of uncertainties. No human subjects were studied.Results: The model fits historical data well with error percentage averaging 9% across 201 data points. Interventions to reduce dosage and diversion reduce the number of persons with opioid use disorder (PWOUD) by 11% and 16%, respectively, but each of these interventions reduces overdoses by only 1%. Boosting treatment reduces overdoses by 3% but increases PWOUD by 1%. Expanding naloxone reduces overdose deaths by 12% but increases PWOUD by 2% and overdoses by 3%. Combining all four interventions reduces PWOUD by 24%, overdoses by 4%, and deaths by 18%. Uncertainties may affect these numerical results, but policy findings are unchanged.Conclusion: No single intervention significantly reduces both PWOUD and overdose deaths, but a combination strategy can do so. Entering the 2020s, only protective measures like naloxone expansion could significantly reduce overdose deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In October 2018, Canada legalized non-medical cannabis. A primary goal of legalization is to reduce illicit market transactions; however, there is little 'baseline' data on the price and purchase sources of cannabis prior to legalization in Canada. This study examined the self-reported price of dried cannabis, quantity purchased, and sources used before retail stores opened. Methods: Data come from the baseline wave of the International Cannabis Policy Study (ICPS), a prospective cohort survey conducted in August–October 2018, immediately before legalization. Respondents were 1227 Canadians aged 16–65 years who reported purchasing dried cannabis in the past 12 months. Respondents were recruited using the Nielsen Consumer Insights Global Panel. A linear regression model examined price-per-gram by quantity purchased, source used, and socio-demographics. Results: Overall, the mean self-reported price-per-gram among cannabis users was C$9.56 (standard errors of the mean [SEM] = 0.2). The price-per-gram of cannabis significantly decreased as quantity purchased increased. For example, the mean price of cannabis purchased in smaller quantities (<3.5 g) ($12.81/g, SEM = 0.5) was more than double the price of cannabis purchased in larger quantities (>28 g) ($5.60/g, SEM = 0.2). The estimated quantity discount elasticity was −0.21 (95% CI: −0.25, −0.18). The most common purchase sources used were family member/friends (53.0%) and illicit street dealers (51.7%). Price-per-gram varied across sources; however, variation was largely accounted for by consumers purchasing different quantities at different sources. Conclusions: Variations in the price of dried cannabis were largely determined by the quantity purchased. The findings highlight the importance of accounting for purchase quantity when assessing cannabis prices, particularly in illicit markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais is the property of DADOS and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The movement of many human interactions to the internet has led to massive volumes of text that contain high-value information about individual choices pertaining to risk and uncertainty. But unlocking these texts' scientific value is challenging because online texts use slang and obfuscation, particularly so in areas of illicit behavior. Utilizing state-of-the-art techniques, we extract a range of variables from more than 30 million online ads for real-world sex over four years, data significantly larger than that previously developed. We establish prices in a common numeraire and study the correlates of pricing, focusing on risk. We show that there is a 15-19% price premium for services performed at a location of the buyer's choosing (outcall). Examining how this premium varies across cities and service venues (i.e. incall vs. outcall) we show that most of the variation in prices is likely driven by supply-side decision making. We decompose the price premium into travel costs (75%) and the remainder that is strongly correlated with local violent crime risk. Finally, we show that sex workers demand compensating differentials for the risk that are on par with the very riskiest legal jobs; an hour spent with clients is valued at roughly $151 for incall services compared to an implied travel cost of $36/hour. These results show that offered prices in the online market for real-world sex are driven by the kinds of rational decision-making common to most pricing decisions and demonstrate the value of applying machine reading technologies to complex online text corpora. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cryptomarkets are online marketplaces, located on the darknet, that facilitate the trading of a variety of illegal goods, mostly drugs. While the literature essentially focus on drugs, various other goods and products related to financial or identity fraud, firearms, counterfeit goods, as well as doping products are also offered on these marketplaces. Through the analysis of relevant data collected on a popular marketplace in 2014-2015, Evolution, this research provides an analysis of the structure of trafficking (types and proportions of products, number of vendors and shipping countries). It also aims at highlighting geographical patterns in the trafficking of these products (e.g. trafficking flows, specialisation of vendors and assessment of their role in the distribution chain). The analysis of the flow of goods between countries emphasises the role of specific countries in the international and domestic trafficking, potentially informing law enforcement agencies to target domestic mails or international posts from specific countries. The research also highlights the large proportion of licit and illicit drug listings and vendors on Evolution, followed by various fraud issues (in particular, financial fraud), the sharing of knowledge (tutorials) and finally goods, currencies and precious metals (principally luxury goods). Looking at the shipping country, there seems to be a clear division between digital and physical products, with more specific information for physical goods. This reveals that the spatial analysis of trafficking is particularly meaningful in the case of physical products (such as illicit drugs) and to a lesser extent for digital products. Finally, the geographical analysis reveals that spatial patterns on Evolution tend to reflect the structure of the traditional illicit market. However, regarding illicit drugs, country-specificity has been observed and are presented in this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the predominant role played by Internet in the distribution of doping substances, little is currently known about the online offer of doping products. Therefore, the study focuses on the detection of doping substances and suppliers discussed in Internet forums. It aims at having a comprehensive understanding of products and sellers to lead an operational monitoring of the online doping market. Thirteen community forums on the Internet were investigated and one million topics were extracted with source code scrappers. Then, a semantic analysis was conducted with a semi-automatic process to classify the relevant words according to doping matters. Additionally, the ranking of doping products, active substances and suppliers in regards to the number of contributors to the forums were established and analyzed over time. Finally, promotion methods of suppliers were evaluated. The results show that anabolic androgenic steroids, used to enhance body image and performance, are the most discussed type of products. A temporal analysis illustrates the stability of the most popular products as well as the emergence of new products such as peptides (e.g. CJC-1295). 327 suppliers were detected, mostly with dedicated websites or direct sales by e-mail as selling methods. Globally, the implemented methodology shows its ability to detect products and suppliers as well as to follow their temporal trends. The intelligence will serve the definition of online monitoring strategies (e.g. the selection of appropriate keywords). Additionally, it also allows the adjustment of customs inspection strategies and anti-doping analysis by monitoring the popular and emerging substances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]