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Zika virus (ZIKV) is a member of the Flaviviridae family, which includes other clinically notable viruses such as the 4 dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1–4). Distinguishing DENVs from ZIKV using the established serologic assays widely used for monitoring DENV transmission is difficult because of antibody cross-reactivity between these closely related flaviviruses. We describe a modified and improved recombinant envelope domain III–based serologic assay for detecting ZIKV type-specific antibodies in regions with endemic DENV transmission. When the assay was used to measure ZIKV seroprevalence in 2017 among children 9–14 years of age living in a region of the Philippines with endemic DENV transmission, we observed a ZIKV seroprevalence of 18%. Investigators should consider using the ZIKV envelope domain III–based assay, which is simple and readily adaptable for use in standard clinical and public health laboratories, to assess ZIKV seroprevalence in areas with endemic DENV transmission.

Abstract Vaccination of the global population against COVID-19 is a great scientific, logistical, and moral challenge. Despite the rapid development and authorization of several full-length Spike (S) protein vaccines, the global demand outweighs the current supply and there is a need for safe, potent, high-volume, affordable vaccines that can fill this gap, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Whether SARS-CoV-2 S-protein receptor-binding domain (RBD)-based vaccines could fill this gap has been debated, especially with regards to its suitability to protect against emerging viral variants of concern. Given a predominance for elicitation of neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) that target RBD following natural infection or vaccination, a key biomarker of protection, there is merit for selection of RBD as a sole vaccine immunogen. With its high-yielding production and manufacturing potential, RBD-based vaccines offer an abundance of temperature-stable doses at an affordable cost. In addition, as the RBD preferentially focuses the immune response to potent and recently recognized cross-protective determinants, this domain may be central to the development of future pan-sarbecovirus vaccines. In this study, we review the data supporting the non-inferiority of RBD as a vaccine immunogen compared to full-length S-protein vaccines with respect to humoral and cellular immune responses against both the prototype pandemic SARS-CoV-2 isolate and emerging variants of concern.

Dengue control approaches are best informed by granular spatial epidemiology of these viruses, yet reconstruction of inter- and intra-household transmissions is limited when analyzing case count, serologic, or genomic consensus sequence data. To determine viral spread on a finer spatial scale, we extended phylogenomic discrete trait analyses to reconstructions of house-to-house transmissions within a prospective cluster study in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. For additional resolution and transmission confirmation, we mapped dengue intra-host single nucleotide variants on the taxa of these time-scaled phylogenies. This approach confirmed 19 household transmissions and revealed that dengue disperses an average of 70 m per day between households in these communities. We describe an evolutionary biology framework for the resolution of dengue transmissions that cannot be differentiated based on epidemiologic and consensus genome data alone. This framework can be used as a public health tool to inform control approaches and enable precise tracing of dengue transmissions.

Because of limited data on dengue virus in Burkina Faso, we conducted 4 consecutive age-stratified longitudinal serologic surveys, ≈6 months apart, among persons 1–55 years of age, during June 2015–March 2017, which included a 2016 outbreak. The seroconversion rate before the serosurvey enrollment was estimated by binomial regression, taking age as the duration of exposure, and assuming constant force of infection (FOI) over age and calendar time. We calculated FOI between consecutive surveys and rate ratios for potentially associated characteristics based on seroconversion using the duration of intervals. Among 2,897 persons at enrollment, 66.3% were IgG-positive, and estimated annual FOI was 5.95%. Of 1,269 enrollees participating in all 4 serosurveys, 438 were IgG-negative at enrollment. The annualized FOI ranged from 10% to 20% (during the 2016 outbreak). Overall, we observed high FOI for dengue. These results could support decision-making about control and preventive measures for dengue.

Objectives: Information on dengue in Africa is limited. To estimate the proportion of dengue-positive cases among febrile patients and describe dengue’s clinical indicators, we conducted passive health facility-based fever surveillance in Mombasa, Kenya. Methods: Non-malarial febrile patients between one and 55 years were enrolled at three health facilities between March 2016 and May 2017. Acute and convalescent blood samples were collected with an interval of 10–21 days. Acute samples were tested with dengue RDT and a selected subset with RT-PCR, and acute/convalescent samples with IgM/IgG ELISA. Results: Among 482 enrollees, 295 (61.2%) were dengue-positive based on laboratory results. The surveillance covered the beginning of a dengue outbreak in April-May 2017, during which 73.9% of enrollees were dengue-positive. By contrast, during the non-outbreak period, 54.6% were dengue-positive. Dengue case status was positively associated with rash, fatigue, headache, retro-orbital pain, nausea/vomiting, nose bleeding, gum bleeding, loss of appetite, myalgia, and arthralgia. Dengue-positive cases in our study had mostly mild disease, with only two requiring observation, and no DHF. Conclusions: The clinical response was generally mild relative to what was observed in SE Asia and the Americas. Given the high level of DENV transmission in Mombasa, more data would be needed to further understand the disease burden and improve case detection for surveillance/monitoring of outbreaks.

Background: A longitudinal cohort study performed in Cebu City, Philippines found that the presence of pre-existing chikungunya virus (CHIKV) neutralizing antibodies (NAb) was associated with a decreased risk of symptomatic CHIKV infection. However, the relationship between pre-existing NAb and the risk of subclinical seroconversion has not been well described. Methods: Data were analyzed from a longitudinal cohort aged 6 months to 83 years who underwent active fever surveillance in Cebu City, Philippines from 2012 to 2014. Participants with a history of fever underwent acute and 3-week convalescent visits with blood collection, and annual visits at baseline, 12 months, and 24 months. Symptomatic CHIKV infections were detected by PCR of acute illness sera. Subclinical seroconversion was defined as a ≥8-fold rise in 80% plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT80) titer between annual visits without intervening symptomatic infection. Results: Among 854 participants who completed the 12-month visit (year 1) and 765 who completed the 24-month visit (year 2), 25 symptomatic CHIKV infections and 104 subclinical seroconversions occurred among 615 individuals with no detectable pre-year NAb in year 1 and 444 in year 2, while no symptomatic infections and one subclinical seroconversion occurred in those with a pre-year PRNT80 titer ≥1:10. Pre-year PRNT80 titer ≥1:10 was associated with zero relative risk of symptomatic CHIKV infection and 0.018 risk of subclinical seroconversion. Conclusions: The presence of detectable pre-existing CHIKV NAb correlated with a decreased risk of both symptomatic CHIKV infection and subclinical seroconversion. These findings support the potential use of CHIKV NAb titer as a surrogate endpoint of protection from infection for vaccine development.

Background To determine the seroprevalence and transmission dynamics of dengue virus (DENV), age-stratified longitudinal serological surveys were conducted in Bangphae district, Ratchaburi province, Thailand, for 3 years between April 2012 and April 2015. Methodology The surveys enrolled 2012 healthy children and adults between 1 and 55 years-of-age, and a longitudinal serosurvey of six repeated bleeds of the same cohort of individuals was conducted every 8 months for the first 2 years (M0, M8, M16) and every half a year (M24, M30, M36) for the rest of the study period. All samples were tested using in-house indirect sandwich dengue IgG ELISA to determine DENV antibody titer, and 640 paired samples which showed rising of DENV IgG titers in paired serum were further tested using in-house neutralization assay, Plaque Reduction Neutralization Test (PRNT50). Principal findings When compared against the gold standard based on the results of PRNT50, sensitivity and specificity of indirect ELISA were found to be both about 85%. The overall DENV IgG positivity determined by ELISA was 74.3% in 2012 and increased to 79.4% by the final sample collection in 2015. In our study sample, more than 98% of subjects older than 25 years were found to be seropositive. Among 518 IgG negative subjects at enrollment, the seroconversion rates were measured in paired bleeds; the rates (between successive visits, approximately 6 months) ranged between 4.8% (between M16 and M24) and 14.7% (between M0 and M8). The dominant serotype of primary DENV infection cases based on seroconversion was identified from the PRNT results and it was DENV-2. Conclusions Our study documented high levels of seroprevalence and rate of transmission. Given the importance of the serostatus and disease burden in consideration for dengue vaccine introduction, our data could be used in decision-making on implementation of various dengue control and preventive measures. Author summary To estimate the proportion of individuals with past exposure to dengue virus (DENV), we conducted repeated serological surveys in Bangphae district, Ratchaburi province, Thailand, between April 2012 and April 2015. About 45% of the subjects were under 15 years-of-age. The surveys enrolled 2012 healthy individuals between 1 and 55 years-of-age, and a longitudinal serosurvey of six repeated bleeds of the same cohort of individuals was conducted approximately every 6 months. All samples were tested using an indirect dengue IgG ELISA and a subset of paired samples which showed rising of IgG values in pairs were tested using neutralization assay, used as the gold standard. When compared against the gold standard, sensitivity and specificity of indirect ELISA were found to be both 85%. The proportion of the study population with past DENV infection measured by IgG ELISA was 74.3% in 2012 and increased to 79.4% by 2015. More than 98% of subjects older than 25 years showed to have past exposure to dengue. Among 518 subjects without past exposure, the rate of getting infection was between 4.8–14.7% (between successive visits, approximately 6 months). The dominant serotype was DENV-2. The level of proportion of individuals with past DENV infection is an important consideration, and our data could be used in decision-making for dengue vaccine introduction.

Chikungunya fever is an acute febrile illness that is often associated with severe polyarthralgia in humans. The disease is caused by chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne alphavirus. Since its reemergence in 2004, the virus has spread throughout the tropical world and several subtropical areas affecting millions of people to become a global public health issue. Given the significant disease burden, there is a need for medical countermeasures and several vaccine candidates are in clinical development. To characterize the global epidemiology of chikungunya and inform vaccine development, we undertook a systematic literature review in MEDLINE and additional public domain sources published up to June 13, 2020 and assessed epidemiological trends from 1999 to 2020. Observational studies addressing CHIKV epidemiology were included and studies not reporting primary data were excluded. Only descriptive analyses were conducted. Of 3,883 relevant sources identified, 371 were eligible for inclusion. 46% of the included studies were published after 2016. Ninety-seven outbreak reports from 45 countries and 50 seroprevalence studies from 31 countries were retrieved, including from Africa, Asia, Oceania, the Americas, and Europe. Several countries reported multiple outbreaks, but these were sporadic and unpredictable. Substantial gaps in epidemiological knowledge were identified, specifically granular data on disease incidence and age-specific infection rates. The retrieved studies revealed a diversity of methodologies and study designs, reflecting a lack of standardized procedures used to characterize this disease. Nevertheless, available epidemiological data emphasized the challenges to conduct vaccine efficacy trials due to disease unpredictability. A better understanding of chikungunya disease dynamics with appropriate granularity and better insights into the duration of long-term population immunity is critical to assist in the planning and success of vaccine development efforts pre and post licensure.

Background: We measured seroconversion to influenza viruses and incidence of symptomatic influenza virus infection in a cohort of children in Bangkok, Thailand. Methods: Children aged ≤6 months were followed for two years for acute respiratory illness (ARI) and had serum specimens taken at 6-month intervals and tested by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. Seroconversion was defined as a >4-fold rise in the HI titers between time points with a titer of >40 in the second specimen. Respiratory swabs were tested by rRT-PCR for influenza. Data were analyzed using generalized linear models. Results: Of 350 children, 266 (76%, 147 were healthy and 119 were high-risk) had ≥2 serum specimens collected before influenza vaccination. During the 2-year follow-up, 266 children contributed 370 person-years of observation, excluding post-vaccination periods. We identified 32 ARI cases with rRT-PCR-confirmed influenza virus infection (7 infections/100 person-years, 95% confidence interval [CI], 4–11). There were 126 episodes of influenza virus infection, resulting in a seroconversion rate of 35 infections/100 person-years (95% CI, 30–42). Rates in healthy and high-risk children did not differ. Conclusions: Influenza virus infection is common during the first two years of life among Thai children. A large proportion of infections may not be detected using the ARI case definition. Keywords: Seroconversion, Seroincidence, Influenza, Pediatric, Thailand

BackgroundDengue is a major public health problem in Thailand, but data are often focused on certain dengue-endemic areas. Methods: To better understand dengue epidemiology and clinical characteristics in Thailand, a fever surveillance study was conducted among patients aged 1-55 years, who presented with non-localized febrile illness at Bang Phae Community Hospital in Ratchaburi province, Thailand from October 2011 to September 2016.ResultsAmong 951 febrile episodes, 130 were dengue-confirmed. Individuals aged 10-14 years were mostly affected, followed by those 15-19 years-of-age, with about 15% of dengue-confirmed cases from adults 25 years and older. There were annual peaks of dengue occurrence between June-November. Most prevalent serotype in circulation was DENV-2 in 2012, DENV-3 in 2014, and DENV-4 & -3 in 2015. Among dengue cases, 65% were accurately detected using the dengue NS1 RDT. Detection rate was similar between secondary and primary dengue cases where 66% of secondary vs. 60% of primary dengue cases had positive results on the NS1 RDT. Among dengue cases, 66% were clinically diagnosed with suspected dengue or DHF, prior to lab confirmation. Dengue was positively associated with rash, headache, hematemesis and alterations to consciousness, when compared to non-dengue. Dengue patients were 10.6 times more likely to be hospitalized, compared to non-dengue cases. Among dengue cases, 95 were secondary and 35 were primary infections. There were 8 suspected DHF cases and all were identified to be secondary dengue. Secondary dengue cases were 3.5 times more likely to be hospitalized compared to primary dengue cases. Although the majority of our dengue-positive patients were secondary dengue cases, with few patients showing manifestations of DHF, our dengue cases were mostly mild disease. Even among children < 10 years-of-age, 61% had secondary infection and the rate of secondary infection increased with age.ConclusionWhile the majority of dengue-confirmed cases were children, almost three-quarters of dengue-confirmed cases in this study were secondary dengue. Our study results consistent with previous data from the country confirm the hyperendemic transmission of DENV in Thailand, even in the non-epidemic years. With various interventions becoming available for dengue prevention and control, including dengue vaccines, decision-making on future implementation strategies should be based on such burden of disease data.

Dengue is the world’s most prevalent and important arboviral disease. More than 50% of the world’s population lives at daily risk of infection and it is estimated more than 95 million people a year seek medical care following infection. Severe disease can manifest as plasma leakage and potential for clinically significant hemorrhage, shock, and death. Treatment is supportive and there is currently no licensed anti-dengue virus prophylactic or therapeutic compound. A single dengue vaccine, Sanofi Pasteur’s Dengvaxia®, has been licensed in 20 countries but uptake has been poor. A safety signal in dengue seronegative vaccine recipients stimulated an international re-look at the vaccine performance profile, new World Health Organization recommendations for use, and controversy in the Philippines involving the government, regulatory agencies, Sanofi Pasteur, clinicians responsible for testing and administering the vaccine, and the parents of vaccinated children. In this review, we provide an overview of Dengvaxia’s® development and discuss what has been learned about product performance since its licensure.

BackgroundIn Africa, information on dengue is limited to outbreak reports and focused on some countries with continuing transmission in West and East Africa. To estimate the proportion of dengue-positive cases among febrile patients and identify clinical indicators of dengue cases, we conducted passive facility-based fever surveillance in a catchment area population of 70,000 residents of Lambaréné and its surroundings in Gabon.MethodsNon-malarial febrile patients with current fever or history of fever (≤7 days) between 1 and 55 years of age, were enrolled at Albert Schweitzer Hospital (ASH). Acute (visit 1, day of enrollment) and convalescent blood samples were collected between 10 and 21 days after enrollment. Acute/convalescent samples were tested with IgM/IgG ELISA, and a selected subset of acute samples with RT-PCR.ResultsAmong 682 non-malarial febrile patients enrolled, 119 (17.4%) were identified as dengue-positive (94 dengue-confirmed and 25 dengue-probable cases). Of these dengue-positive cases, 14 were confirmed with PCR, and based on serotyping, two infections were identified to be DENV-2 and two were DENV-3. The majority of our enrolled patients were ConclusionLambaréné is not considered dengue-endemic. However, one in six non-malarial febrile episodes was found to be dengue-positive in the study period. Dengue should be considered more frequently in clinicians' diagnosis among non-malarial febrile patients in Lambaréné. Given the lack of data on dengue in Gabon, additional prospective and longitudinal studies would help to further define the burden and patterns of dengue for improved case detection.

Summary: Background: Detection of dengue virus antibodies is important for understanding future dengue virus risk and for prevaccination screening. We aimed to evaluate the performance of a dengue IgG indirect ELISA in determining dengue seroprevalence in a cohort of children in the Philippines, using a focus reduction neutralisation test (FRNT) as the reference test. Methods: In this prospective population-based cohort study, we enrolled healthy children residing in Bogo or Balamban, Cebu, Philippines, who were to be aged 9–14 years at the time of a mass dengue vaccination campaign. Sera were collected from participants and batch tested by indirect IgG ELISA and FRNT. The primary endpoint was dengue seroprevalence in the cohort, detected by ELISA, and validated by that detected by reference FRNT. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03465254. Findings: We collected 2996 serum samples between May 2, and June 2, 2017, and we tested each sample with IgG ELISA. Using 1961 samples (65·5%) that were tested with FRNT, and 1035 samples (34·5%) with imputed results, we found that 320 (10·7%) of 2996 children were dengue naive and 2676 (89·3%) were seropositive for previous dengue virus infection. Based on the 1961 non-imputed FRNT results classified as dengue seronegative or seropositive, the ELISA (with a 0·9 index value cutoff) showed 95·2% sensitivity, 93·4% specificity, 6·6% false positivity, and 4·8% false negativity. However, sensitivity of the ELISA was poor (77·1%) among children with immunity to just one dengue virus serotype. Of the 11 sera that were false positive with ELISA, seven samples (63·6%) were seropositive for Zika virus or Japanese encephalitis virus with FRNT. Interpretation: Most children (89·3%) assessed in our study and eligible to participate in the mass dengue vaccination campaign were seropositive for previous dengue virus infection. Compared with FRNT, ELISA had high sensitivity and specificity (>90%), but the false-negative and false-positive rates makes the test suboptimal for prevaccination screening. Individuals who are falsely identified as seropositive by dengue IgG ELISA and then vaccinated might be at risk of developing severe disease during a subsequent exposure to wild-type dengue virus. Those with a monotypic profile would benefit the most from vaccination, but the sensitivity of the IgG ELISA was much lower in this group than in those with a multitypic profile. Funding: Philippine Department of Health, Hanako Foundation, WHO, Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency through the International Vaccine Institute, and University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.

Abstract Background Multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction assays have improved diagnostic sensitivity for a wide range of pathogens. However, co-detection of multiple agents and bacterial colonization make it difficult to distinguish between asymptomatic infection or illness aetiology. We assessed whether semi-quantitative microbial load data can differentiate between symptomatic and asymptomatic states for common respiratory pathogens. Methods We obtained throat and nasal swab samples from military trainees at two Thai Army barracks. Specimens were collected at the start and end of 10-week training periods (non-acute samples), and from individuals who developed upper respiratory tract infection during training (acute samples). We analysed the samples using a commercial multiplex respiratory panel comprising 33 bacterial, viral and fungal targets. We used random effects tobit models to compare cycle threshold (Ct) value distributions from non-acute and acute samples. Results We analysed 341 non-acute and 145 acute swab samples from 274 participants. Haemophilus influenzae type B was the most commonly detected microbe (77.4% of non-acute and 64.8% of acute samples). In acute samples, nine specific microbe pairs were detected more frequently than expected by chance. Regression models indicated significantly lower microbial load in non-acute relative to acute samples for H. influenzae non-type B, Streptococcus pneumoniae and rhinovirus, although it was not possible to identify a Ct-value threshold indicating causal etiology for any of these organisms. Conclusions Semi-quantitative measures of microbial concentration did not reliably differentiate between illness and asymptomatic colonization, suggesting that clinical symptoms may not always be directly related to microbial load for common respiratory infections.

BACKGROUND:In Africa, the magnitude of dengue virus (DENV) transmission is largely unknown. In Burkina Faso, several outbreaks have been reported and data are often based on findings from outbreak investigations. METHODS:To better understand dengue epidemiology and clinical characteristics in Burkina Faso, a fever surveillance study was conducted among patients aged 1-55 years, who presented with non-malarial febrile illness at five primary healthcare facilities in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso from December 2014 to February 2017, encompassing a 3-month dengue outbreak in September-November 2016. Acute and convalescent blood samples were collected within an interval of 10-21 days between visits. Acute samples were tested with dengue rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and a selected subset with RT-PCR, and all acute/convalescent samples with IgM/IgG ELISA. RESULTS:Among 2929 non-malarial febrile patients, 740 (25%) were dengue-positive based on RT-PCR and/or IgM/IgG ELISA; 428 out of 777 patients (55%) and 312 out of 2152 (14%) were dengue-positive during outbreak and non-outbreak periods, respectively. There were 11% (316/2929) and 4% (129/2929) patients showing positive for NS1 and IgM, on the RDT, respectively. DENV 2 predominated during the outbreak, whereas DENV 3 predominated before the outbreak. Only 25% of dengue-positive cases were clinically diagnosed with suspected dengue. The odds of requiring observation for ≤3 days (versus routine outpatient care) were 11 times higher among dengue-positive cases than non-dengue cases. In adjusted analyses, dengue-positivity was associated with rash and retro-orbital pain (OR = 2.6 and 7.4, respectively) during the outbreak and with rash and nausea/vomiting (OR = 1.5 and 1.4, respectively) during the non-outbreak period. CONCLUSION:Dengue virus is an important pathogen in Burkina Faso, accounting for a substantial proportion of non-malarial fevers both during and outside outbreak, but is only infrequently suspected by clinicians. Additional longitudinal data would help to further define characteristics of dengue for improved case detection and surveillance.

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is an emerging pathogen with the potential to pose a threat to global public health. Sporadic cases and outbreaks continue to be reported in the Middle East, and case fatality rates remain high at approximately 36% globally. No specific preventive or therapeutic countermeasures currently exist. A safe and effective vaccine could play an important role in protecting against the threat from MERS-CoV. This review discusses human vaccine candidates currently under development, and explores viral characteristics, molecular epidemiology and immunology relevant to MERS-CoV vaccine development. At present, a DNA vaccine candidate has begun a human clinical trial, while two vector-based candidates will very soon begin human trials. Protein-based vaccines are still at pre-clinical stage. Challenges to successful development include incomplete understanding of viral transmission, pathogenesis and immune response (in particular at the mucosal level), no optimal animal challenge models, lack of standardized immunological assays, and insufficient sustainable funding.

BACKGROUND:Dengue fever is a rapidly growing public health problem in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics in the world. While there are existing studies on the economic burden of dengue fever in some of dengue-endemic countries, cost components are often not standardized, making cross-country comparisons challenging. Furthermore, no such studies have been available in Africa. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:A patient-specific survey questionnaire was developed and applied in Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Cambodia in a standardized format. Multiple interviews were carried out in order to capture the entire cost incurred during the period of dengue illness. Both private (patient's out-of-pocket) and public (non-private) expenditure were accessed to understand how the economic burden of dengue is distributed between private and non-private payers. A substantial number of dengue-confirmed patients were identified in all three countries: 414 in Burkina Faso, 149 in Kenya, and 254 in Cambodia. The average cost of illness for dengue fever was $26 (95% CI $23-$29) and $134 (95% CI $119-$152) per inpatient in Burkina Faso and Cambodia, respectively. In the case of outpatients, the average economic burden per episode was $13 (95% CI $23-$29) in Burkina Faso and $23 (95% CI $19-$28) in Kenya. Compared to Cambodia, public contributions were trivial in Burkina Faso and Kenya, reflecting that a majority of medical costs had to be directly borne by patients in the two countries. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:The cost of illness for dengue fever is significant in the three countries. In particular, the current study sheds light on the potential economic burden of the disease in Burkina Faso and Kenya where existing evidence is sparse in the context of dengue fever, and underscores the need to achieve Universal Health Coverage. Given the availability of the current (CYD-TDV) and second-generation dengue vaccines in the near future, our study outcomes can be used to guide decision makers in setting health policy priorities.

Abstract Background Phlegm is prevalent symptom in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Few studies have investigated the effectiveness of N-acetylcysteine (NAC) nebulizer therapy in COPD patients. We evaluated the effect of nebulized NAC on the improvement of phlegm symptom in COPD patients. Methods This was a 12-week, prospective, single-arm, open-label, phase IV multi-center trial (NCT05102305, Registration Date: 20-October-2021). We enrolled patients aged ≥ 40 years with post bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC)

Abstract Acute kidney injury (AKI) is related to adverse clinical outcomes. Therefore, identifying patients at increased risk of postoperative AKI and proactively providing appropriate care is crucial. However, only a limited number of modifiable risk factors have been recognized to mitigate AKI risk. We retrospectively analyzed adult patients who underwent endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation of more than 2 h during non-cardiac surgery at Seoul National University Hospital from January 2011 to November 2022. Patients were grouped into low- or high-tidal volume groups based on their intraoperative tidal volume relative to their predicted body weight (PBW) of 8 ml/kg. The association between intraoperative tidal volume and postoperative AKI was evaluated using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), adjusting for various preoperative confounders. Among the 37,726 patients included, the incidence of postoperative AKI was 4.1%. The odds of postoperative AKI risk were significantly higher in the high-tidal volume group than in the low-tidal volume group before and after IPTW (odds ratio [OR] 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08–1.32, P = 0.001 and OR: 1.10, 95% CI 1.02–1.19, P = 0.010, respectively). In the multivariable logistic regression analysis after IPTW, a high tidal volume was independently associated with an increased risk of postoperative AKI (OR: 1.21, 95% CI 1.12–1.30, P

The US military has been a leading proponent of vaccine development since its founding. General George Washington ordered the entire American army to be variolated against smallpox after recognizing the serious threat that it posed to military operations. He did this on the recommendation from Dr. John Morgan, the physician-in-chief of the American army, who wrote a treatise on variolation in 1776. Although cases of smallpox still occurred, they were far fewer than expected, and it is believed that the vaccination program contributed to victory in the War of Independence. Effective military force requires personnel who are healthy and combat ready for worldwide deployment. Given the geography of US military operations, military personnel should also be protected against diseases that are endemic in potential areas of conflict. For this reason, and unknown to many, the US military has strongly supported vaccine research and development. Four categories of communicable infectious diseases threaten military personnel: (1) diseases that spread easily in densely populated areas (respiratory and dysenteric diseases); (2) vector-borne diseases (disease carried by mosquitoes and other insects); (3) sexually transmitted diseases (hepatitis, HIV, and gonorrhea); and (4) diseases associated with biological warfare. For each category, the US military has supported research that has provided the basis for many of the vaccines available today. Although preventive measures and the development of drugs have provided some relief from the burden of malaria, dengue, and HIV, the US military continues to fund research and development of prophylactic vaccines that will contribute to force health protection and global health. In the past few years, newly recognized infections with Zika, severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome viruses have pushed the US military to fund research and fast track clinical trials to quickly and effectively develop vaccines for emerging diseases. With US military personnel present in every region of the globe, one of the most cost-effective ways to maintain military effectiveness is to develop vaccines against prioritized threats to military members’ health.

Early diagnosis of influenza infection maximizes the effectiveness of antiviral medicines. Here, we assess the ability for clinical characteristics and rapid influenza tests to predict PCR-confirmed influenza infection in a sentinel, cross-sectional study for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Thailand. Participants meeting criteria for acute ILI (fever > 38°C and cough or sore throat) were recruited from inpatient and outpatient departments in Bangkok, Thailand, from 2009-2014. The primary endpoint for the study was the occurrence of virologically-confirmed influenza infection (based upon detection of viral RNA by RT-PCR) among individuals presenting for care with ILI. Nasal and throat swabs were tested by rapid influenza test (QuickVue) and by RT-PCR. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated using the case test-negative method. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was used to predict influenza RT-PCR positivity based upon symptoms reported. We enrolled 4572 individuals with ILI; 32.7% had detectable influenza RNA by RT-PCR. Influenza cases were attributable to influenza B (38.6%), A(H1N1)pdm09 (35.1%), and A(H3N2) (26.3%) viruses. VE was highest against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus and among adults. The most important symptoms for predicting influenza PCR-positivity among patients with ILI were cough, runny nose, chills, and body aches. The accuracy of the CART predictive model was 72.8%, with an NPV of 78.1% and a PPV of 59.7%. During epidemic periods, PPV improved to 68.5%. The PPV of the QuickVue assay relative to RT-PCR was 93.0% overall, with peak performance during epidemic periods and in the absence of oseltamivir treatment. Clinical criteria demonstrated poor predictive capability outside of epidemic periods while rapid tests were reasonably accurate and may provide an acceptable alternative to RT-PCR testing in resource-limited areas.

Dengue, caused by dengue viruses (DENVs), is the most common arboviral disease of humans. Several dengue vaccine candidates are at different stages of clinical development and one has been licensed. Inoculation with live-attenuated DENV constructs is an approach that has been used by vaccine developers. Unfortunately, the simultaneous injection of all four attenuated DENV serotypes (DENV1-4) into a single injection site (monotopic vaccination) has been postulated to result in interference in the replication of some serotypes in favor of others, an important obstacle in obtaining a balanced immune response against all serotypes. Here, we demonstrate the virus replicative and immunostimulatory effects of polytopic monovalent dengue vaccination (PV) in which, each of the four components of the tetravalent vaccine is simultaneously delivered to four different sites versus the more traditional monotopic tetravalent vaccination (MV) in a non-human primate (NHP) model. With the exception of DENV-2, there was no significant difference in detectable viral RNA levels between PV and MV inoculation. Interestingly, longer periods of detection and higher viral RNA levels were seen in the lymph nodes of NHPs inoculated PV compared to MV. Induction of lymph node dendritic cell maturation and of blood T- and B-cell activation showed different kinetics in PV inoculated NHPs compared to MV. The MV inoculated group showed earlier maturation of dendritic cells and activation of B and T cells compared to PV inoculated NHPs. A similar kinetic difference was also observed in the cytokine response: MV induced earlier cytokine responses compared to PV. However, similar levels of DENV neutralizing antibodies were observed in PV and MV NHPs. These findings indicate that cellular immune response after vaccination may be affected by the location of inoculation. Design of vaccine delivery may need to take into account the effects of locations of vaccine delivery of multiples serotype live viral vaccine on the induction of immune response.

In 2012, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) was reported for the first time in Bhutan. IgM ELISA results were positive for 36/210 patient samples; PCR was positive for 32/81. Phylogenetic analyses confirmed that Bhutan CHIKV belongs to the East/Central/South African genotype. Appropriate responses to future outbreaks require a system of surveillance and improved laboratory capacity.

Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) remains a serious international public health threat. With the goal of accelerating the development of countermeasures against MERS coronavirus (MERS-CoV), funding agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and researchers across the world assembled in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on November 14–15, 2015, to discuss vaccine development challenges. The meeting was spearheaded by the Saudi Ministry of Health and co-organized by the International Vaccine Institute, South Korea. Accelerating the development of a preventive vaccine requires a better understanding of MERS epidemiology, transmission, and pathogenesis in humans and animals. A combination of rodent and nonhuman primate models should be considered in evaluating and developing preventive and therapeutic vaccine candidates. Dromedary camels should be considered for the development of veterinary vaccines. Several vaccine technology platforms targeting the MERS-CoV spike protein were discussed. Mechanisms to maximize investment, provide robust data, and affect public health are urgently needed.

BACKGROUND:The mean age of dengue has been increasing in some but not all countries. We sought to determine the incidence of dengue virus (DENV) infection in adults and children in a prospective cohort study in the Philippines where dengue is hyperendemic. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:A prospective cohort of subjects ≥6 months old in Cebu City, Philippines, underwent active community-based surveillance for acute febrile illnesses by weekly contact. Fever history within the prior seven days was evaluated with an acute illness visit followed by 2, 5, and 8-day, and 3-week convalescent visits. Blood was collected at the acute and 3-week visits. Scheduled visits took place at enrolment and 12 months that included blood collections. Acute samples were tested by DENV PCR and acute/convalescent samples by DENV IgM/IgG ELISA to identify symptomatic infections. Enrolment and 12-month samples were tested by DENV hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assay to identify subclinical infections. Of 1,008 enrolled subjects, 854 completed all study activities at 12 months per-protocol undergoing 868 person-years of surveillance. The incidence of symptomatic and subclinical infections was 1.62 and 7.03 per 100 person-years, respectively. However, in subjects >15 years old, only one symptomatic infection occurred whereas 27 subclinical infections were identified. DENV HAI seroprevalence increased sharply with age with baseline multitypic HAIs associated with fewer symptomatic infections. Using a catalytic model, the historical infection rate among dengue naïve individuals was estimated to be high at 11-22%/year. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:In this hyperendemic area with high seroprevalence of multitypic DENV HAIs in adults, symptomatic dengue rarely occurred in individuals older than 15 years. Our findings demonstrate that dengue is primarily a pediatric disease in areas with high force of infection. However, the average age of dengue could increase if force of infection decreases over time, as is occurring in some hyperendemic countries such as Thailand.

BACKGROUND:Infants born to dengue immune mothers acquire maternal antibodies to dengue. These antibodies, though initially protective, decline during the first year of life to levels thought to be disease enhancing, before reaching undetectable levels. Infants have long been studied to understand the interaction between infection and disease on an individual level. METHODS/FINDINGS:Considering infants (cases

Dengue viruses (DENVs) are among the most rapidly and efficiently spreading arboviruses. WHO recently estimated that about half of the world's population is now at risk for DENV infection. There is no specific treatment or vaccine available to treat or prevent DENV infections. Here, we report the development of a novel dengue nanovaccine (DNV) composed of UV-inactivated DENV-2 (UVI-DENV) and Mycobacterium bovis Bacillus Calmette-Guerin cell wall components (BCG-CWCs) loaded into chitosan nanoparticles (CS-NPs). CS-NPs were prepared by an emulsion polymerization method prior to loading of the BCG-CWCs and UVI-DENV components. Using a scanning electron microscope and a zetasizer, DNV was determined to be of spherical shape with a diameter of 372.0 ± 11.2 nm in average and cationic surface properties. The loading efficacies of BCG-CWCs and UVI-DENV into the CS-NPs and BCG-CS-NPs were up to 97.2 and 98.4%, respectively. THP-1 cellular uptake of UVI-DENV present in the DNV was higher than soluble UVI-DENV alone. DNV stimulation of immature dendritic cells (iDCs) resulted in a significantly higher expression of DCs maturation markers (CD80, CD86 and HLA-DR) and induction of various cytokine and chemokine productions than in UVI-DENV-treated iDCs, suggesting a potential use of BCG- CS-NPs as adjuvant and delivery system for dengue vaccines.

BACKGROUND:Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a globally re-emerging arbovirus for which previous studies have indicated the majority of infections result in symptomatic febrile illness. We sought to characterize the proportion of subclinical and symptomatic CHIKV infections in a prospective cohort study in a country with known CHIKV circulation. METHODS/FINDINGS:A prospective longitudinal cohort of subjects ≥6 months old underwent community-based active surveillance for acute febrile illness in Cebu City, Philippines from 2012-13. Subjects with fever history were clinically evaluated at acute, 2, 5, and 8 day visits, and at a 3-week convalescent visit. Blood was collected at the acute and 3-week convalescent visits. Symptomatic CHIKV infections were identified by positive CHIKV PCR in acute blood samples and/or CHIKV IgM/IgG ELISA seroconversion in paired acute/convalescent samples. Enrollment and 12-month blood samples underwent plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) using CHIKV attenuated strain 181/clone25. Subclinical CHIKV infections were identified by ≥8-fold rise from a baseline enrollment PRNT titer 50 years old. Baseline CHIKV PRNT titer ≥10 was associated with 100% (95%CI: 46.1, 100.0) protection from symptomatic CHIKV infection. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated Asian genotype closely related to strains from Asia and the Caribbean. CONCLUSIONS:Subclinical infections accounted for a majority of total CHIKV infections. A positive baseline CHIKV PRNT titer was associated with protection from symptomatic CHIKV infection. These findings have implications for assessing disease burden, understanding virus transmission, and supporting vaccine development.

Influenza in the tropics occurs year round with peaks that correspond variably to temperate regions. However, data on influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the tropics is sparse. We report on the effectiveness of influenza vaccine to prevent medically attended laboratory confirmed influenza from sentinel surveillance conducted at a Thai military medical facility in Bangkok, Thailand from August 2009 to January 2013. Patients ≥6 months old presenting with influenza-like illness underwent combined nasal/throat swabs which were tested by influenza RT-PCR. A case test-negative study design was used to evaluate VE. Of 2999 samples available for analysis,1059 (35.3%) were PCR-positive (cases) and 1940 (64.6%) were PCR-negative (test-negative controls). Five hundred and seven (16.9%) of these patients reported being vaccinated within the previous 12 months. Periods of high and low influenza activity were defined based on publicly available Thai Ministry of Public Health data. Overall VE adjusted for age and epiweek was found to be 50.1% (95%CI: 35.0, 61.9%). The May to April adjusted VE for year 2010, 2011 and 2012 was 57.7% (95%CI: 33.7, 73.8%), 57.1% (95% CI: 35.2, 68.3%) and 37.6% (95% CI: 3.5, 62.9%).During high influenza activity in years with the same vaccine formulation, the adjusted VE was 54.9% (95%CI: 38.9, 66.9%). VE appeared to be much higher during high versus low influenza activity periods. The adjusted point estimate for VE was highest in the 18-49 year age group (76.6%) followed by 6-23 months (58.1%) and 2-17 years (52.5%). Adjusted estimates were not done for those ≥50 years of age due to small numbers. VE in patients with underlying disease was 75.5% compared to 48.0% in those without. Our findings demonstrate moderate protection by influenza vaccination and support the utility of influenza vaccination in the tropics including in very young children and those with underlying disease.

Infection with dengue virus results in a wide range of clinical manifestations from dengue fever (DF), a self-limited febrile illness, to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) which is characterized by plasma leakage and bleeding tendency. Although cardiac involvement has been reported in dengue, the incidence and the extent of cardiac involvement are not well defined.We characterized the incidence and changes in cardiac function in a prospective in-patient cohort of suspected dengue cases by serial echocardiography. Plasma leakage was detected by serial chest and abdominal ultrasonography. Daily cardiac troponin-T levels were measured. One hundred and eighty one dengue cases were enrolled. On the day of enrollment, dengue cases that already developed plasma leakage had lower cardiac index (2695 (127) vs 3188 (75) (L/min/m2), p = .003) and higher left ventricular myocardial performance index (.413 (.021) vs .328 (.026), p = .021) and systemic vascular resistance (2478 (184) vs 1820 (133) (dynes·s/cm5), p = .005) compared to those without plasma leakage. Early diastolic wall motion of the left ventricle was decreased in dengue cases with plasma leakage compared to those without. Decreased left ventricular wall motility was more common in dengue patients compared to non-dengue cases particularly in cases with plasma leakage. Differences in cardiac function between DF and DHF were most pronounced around the time of plasma leakage. Cardiac dysfunction was transient and did not require treatment. Transient elevated troponin-T levels were more common in DHF cases compared to DF (14.5% vs 5%, p = 0.028).Transient left ventricular systolic and diastolic dysfunction was common in children hospitalized with dengue and related to severity of plasma leakage. The functional abnormality spontaneously resolved without specific treatment. Cardiac structural changes including myocarditis were uncommon.

Dengue is one of the most significant public health problems in tropical and subtropical countries, and is increasingly being detected in traditionally non-endemic areas. In Bhutan, dengue virus (DENV) has only recently been detected and limited information is available. In this study, we analyzed the epidemiological and molecular characteristics of DENV in two southern districts in Bhutan from 2013-2014. During this period, 379 patients were clinically diagnosed with suspected dengue, of whom 119 (31.4%) were positive for DENV infection by NS1 ELISA and/or nested RT-PCR. DENV serotypes 1, 2 and 3 were detected with DENV-1 being predominant. Phylogenetic analysis of DENV-1 using envelope gene demonstrated genotype V, closely related to strains from northern India.

RV144 was a community-based HIV vaccine efficacy trial conducted in HIV-uninfected adults in Thailand, where dengue virus continues to cause a large number of infections every year. We attempted to document the accuracy of clinically diagnosed dengue episodes reported as serious adverse events (SAEs) and adverse events (AEs) and examine whether dengue serology would support the clinical diagnosis. Subjects without a clinical dengue diagnosis but with an infection or idiopathic fever were selected as a control population. Dengue serology was performed by hemagglutination inhibition on plasma samples. A total of 124 clinical dengue episodes were reported (103 SAEs and 21 AEs). Overall 82.6% of the clinically diagnosed dengue episodes were supported by a positive dengue serology: 71.4% of the AEs and 85.0% of the SAEs. Of the 100 subjects with both clinical dengue and positive serology, all presented with fever, 83% with leucopenia, 54% with thrombocytopenia, and 27% with hemorrhagic symptoms. All episodes resolved spontaneously without sequellae. Only two of 15 subjects with a negative serology presented with fever. The sensitivity and specificity of clinical dengue diagnosis were 90.9% and 74.4%, respectively, when compared to the control population, and with a positive predictive value of 82.6% and negative predictive value of 84.7% when compared to dengue serology. Clinical diagnosis of dengue is an accurate method of dengue diagnosis in adults in Thailand. Large-scale clinical trials offer the opportunity to systematically study infectious diseases such as dengue and other infections that may occur during the trial.

Currently, no dengue NS1 detection kit has regulatory approval for the diagnosis of acute dengue fever. Here we report the sensitivity and specificity of the InBios DEN Detect NS1 ELISA using a panel of well characterized human acute fever serum specimens.The InBios DENV Detect NS1 ELISA was tested using a panel composed of 334 serum specimens collected from acute febrile patients seeking care in a Bangkok hospital in 2010 and 2011. Of these patients, 314 were found to have acute dengue by either RT-PCR and/or anti-dengue IgM/IgG ELISA. Alongside the InBios NS1 ELISA kit, we compared the performance characteristics of the BioRad Platelia NS1 antigen kit. The InBios NS1 ELISA Ag kit had a higher overall sensitivity (86% vs 72.8%) but equal specificity (100%) compared to the BioRad Platelia kit. The serological status of the patient significantly influenced the outcome. In primary infections, the InBios NS1 kit demonstrated a higher sensitivity (98.8%) than in secondary infections (83.5%). We found significant variation in the sensitivity of the InBios NS1 ELISA kit depending on the serotype of the dengue virus and also found decreasing sensitivity the longer after the onset of illness, showing 100% sensitivity early during illness, but dropping below 50% by Day 7.The InBios NS1 ELISA kit demonstrated high accuracy when compared to the initial clinical diagnosis with greater than 85% agreement when patients were clinically diagnosed with dengue illness. Results presented here suggest the accurate detection of circulating dengue NS1 by the InBios DENV Detect NS1 ELISA can provide clinicians with a useful tool for diagnosis of early dengue infections.

Long-term homologous and temporary heterologous protection from dengue virus (DENV) infection may be mediated by neutralizing antibodies. However, neutralizing antibody titers (NTs) have not been clearly associated with protection from infection.Data from two geographic cluster studies conducted in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand were used for this analysis. In the first study (2004-2007), cluster investigations of 100-meter radius were triggered by DENV-infected index cases from a concurrent prospective cohort. Subjects between 6 months and 15 years old were evaluated for DENV infection at days 0 and 15 by DENV PCR and IgM ELISA. In the second study (2009-2012), clusters of 200-meter radius were triggered by DENV-infected index cases admitted to the provincial hospital. Subjects of any age ≥6 months were evaluated for DENV infection at days 0 and 14. In both studies, subjects who were DENV PCR positive at day 14/15 were considered to have been "susceptible" on day 0. Comparison subjects from houses in which someone had documented DENV infection, but the subject remained DENV negative at days 0 and 14/15, were considered "non-susceptible." Day 0 samples were presumed to be from just before virus exposure, and underwent plaque reduction neutralization testing (PRNT). Seventeen "susceptible" (six DENV-1, five DENV-2, and six DENV-4), and 32 "non-susceptible" (13 exposed to DENV-1, 10 DENV-2, and 9 DENV-4) subjects were evaluated. Comparing subjects exposed to the same serotype, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves identified homotypic PRNT titers of 11, 323 and 16 for DENV-1, -2 and -4, respectively, to differentiate "susceptible" from "non-susceptible" subjects.PRNT titers were associated with protection from infection by DENV-1, -2 and -4. Protective NTs appeared to be serotype-dependent and may be higher for DENV-2 than other serotypes. These findings are relevant for both dengue epidemiology studies and vaccine development efforts.

BACKGROUND:Dengue is endemic to the rural province of Kamphaeng Phet, Northern Thailand. A decade of prospective cohort studies has provided important insights into the dengue viruses and their generated disease. However, as elsewhere, spatial dynamics of the pathogen remain poorly understood. In particular, the spatial scale of transmission and the scale of clustering are poorly characterized. This information is critical for effective deployment of spatially targeted interventions and for understanding the mechanisms that drive the dispersal of the virus. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We geocoded the home locations of 4,768 confirmed dengue cases admitted to the main hospital in Kamphaeng Phet province between 1994 and 2008. We used the phi clustering statistic to characterize short-term spatial dependence between cases. Further, to see if clustering of cases led to similar temporal patterns of disease across villages, we calculated the correlation in the long-term epidemic curves between communities. We found that cases were 2.9 times (95% confidence interval 2.7-3.2) more likely to live in the same village and be infected within the same month than expected given the underlying spatial and temporal distribution of cases. This fell to 1.4 times (1.2-1.7) for individuals living in villages 1 km apart. Significant clustering was observed up to 5 km. We found a steadily decreasing trend in the correlation in epidemics curves by distance: communities separated by up to 5 km had a mean correlation of 0.28 falling to 0.16 for communities separated between 20 km and 25 km. A potential explanation for these patterns is a role for human movement in spreading the pathogen between communities. Gravity style models, which attempt to capture population movement, outperformed competing models in describing the observed correlations. CONCLUSIONS:There exists significant short-term clustering of cases within individual villages. Effective spatially and temporally targeted interventions deployed within villages may target ongoing transmission and reduce infection risk.

BACKGROUND:Accurate determination of neutralization antibody titers supports epidemiological studies of dengue virus transmission and vaccine trials. Neutralization titers measured using the plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) are believed to provide a key measure of immunity to dengue viruses, however, the assay's variability is poorly understood, making it difficult to interpret the significance of any assay reading. In addition there is limited standardization of the neutralization evaluation point or statistical model used to estimate titers across laboratories, with little understanding of the optimum approach. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We used repeated assays on the same two pools of serum using five different viruses (2,319 assays) to characterize the variability in the technique under identical experimental conditions. We also assessed the performance of multiple statistical models to interpolate continuous values of neutralization titer from discrete measurements from serial dilutions. We found that the variance in plaque reductions for individual dilutions was 0.016, equivalent to a 95% confidence interval of 0.45-0.95 for an observed plaque reduction of 0.7. We identified PRNT75 as the optimum evaluation point with a variance of 0.025 (log10 scale), indicating a titer reading of 1∶500 had 95% confidence intervals of 1∶240-1∶1000 (2.70±0.31 on a log10 scale). The choice of statistical model was not important for the calculation of relative titers, however, cloglog regression out-performed alternatives where absolute titers are of interest. Finally, we estimated that only 0.7% of assays would falsely detect a four-fold difference in titers between acute and convalescent sera where no true difference exists. CONCLUSIONS:Estimating and reporting assay uncertainty will aid the interpretation of individual titers. Laboratories should perform a small number of repeat assays to generate their own variability estimates. These could be used to calculate confidence intervals for all reported titers and allow benchmarking of assay performance.

BACKGROUND: Accurate prediction of dengue incidence levels weeks in advance of an outbreak may reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this neglected disease. Therefore, models were developed to predict high and low dengue incidence in order to provide timely forewarnings in the Philippines. METHODS: Model inputs were chosen based on studies indicating variables that may impact dengue incidence. The method first uses Fuzzy Association Rule Mining techniques to extract association rules from these historical epidemiological, environmental, and socio-economic data, as well as climate data indicating future weather patterns. Selection criteria were used to choose a subset of these rules for a classifier, thereby generating a Prediction Model. The models predicted high or low incidence of dengue in a Philippines province four weeks in advance. The threshold between high and low was determined relative to historical incidence data. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Model accuracy is described by Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV), Sensitivity, and Specificity computed on test data not previously used to develop the model. Selecting a model using the F0.5 measure, which gives PPV more importance than Sensitivity, gave these results: PPV = 0.780, NPV = 0.938, Sensitivity = 0.547, Specificity = 0.978. Using the F3 measure, which gives Sensitivity more importance than PPV, the selected model had PPV = 0.778, NPV = 0.948, Sensitivity = 0.627, Specificity = 0.974. The decision as to which model has greater utility depends on how the predictions will be used in a particular situation. CONCLUSIONS: This method builds prediction models for future dengue incidence in the Philippines and is capable of being modified for use in different situations; for diseases other than dengue; and for regions beyond the Philippines. The Philippines dengue prediction models predicted high or low incidence of dengue four weeks in advance of an outbreak with high accuracy, as measured by PPV, NPV, Sensitivity, and Specificity.

Pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 emerged in Thailand in 2009. A prospective longitudinal adult cohort and household transmission study of influenza-like illness (ILI) was ongoing in rural Thailand at the time of emergence. Symptomatic and subclinical A(H1N1)pdm09 infection rates in the cohort and among household members were evaluated.A cohort of 800 Thai adults underwent active community-based surveillance for ILI from 2008-2010. Acute respiratory samples from ILI episodes were tested for A(H1N1)pdm09 by qRT-PCR; acute and 60-day convalescent blood samples were tested by A(H1N1)pdm09 hemagglutination inhibition assay (HI). Enrollment, 12-month and 24-month follow-up blood samples were tested for A(H1N1)pdm09 seroconversion by HI. Household members of influenza A-infected cohort subjects with ILI were enrolled in household transmission investigations in which day 0 and 60 blood samples and acute respiratory samples were tested by either qRT-PCR or HI for A(H1N1)pdm09. Seroconversion between annual blood samples without A(H1N1)pdm09-positive ILI was considered as subclinical infection.The 2-yr cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 infection in the cohort in 2009/2010 was 10.8% (84/781) with an annual incidence of 1.2% in 2009 and 9.7% in 2010; 83.3% of infections were subclinical (50% in 2009 and 85.9% in 2010). The 2-yr cumulative incidence was lowest (5%) in adults born ≤ 1957. The A(H1N1)pdm09 secondary attack rate among household contacts was 47.2% (17/36); 47.1% of these infections were subclinical. The highest A(H1N1)pdm09 secondary attack rate among household contacts (70.6%, 12/17) occurred among children born between 1990 and 2003.Subclinical A(H1N1)pdm09 infections in Thai adults occurred frequently and accounted for a greater proportion of all A(H1N1)pdm09 infections than previously estimated. The role of subclinical infections in A(H1N1)pdm09 transmission has important implications in formulating strategies to predict and prevent the spread of A(H1N1)pdm09 and other influenza virus strains.

To determine the serotype and genotype of dengue virus (DENV) in Bhutan, we conducted phylogenetic analyses of complete envelope gene sequences. DENV-2 (Cosmopolitan genotype) predominated in 2004, and DENV-3 (genotype III) predominated in 2005–2006; these viruses were imported from India. Primary dengue infections outnumbered secondary infections, suggesting recent emergence.

Revealing the patterns and determinants of the spread of dengue virus (DENV) at local scales is central to understanding the epidemiology and evolution of this major human pathogen. We performed a phylogenetic analysis of the envelope (E) genes of DENV-1, -2, -3, and -4 isolates (involving 97, 23, 5, and 74 newly collected sequences, respectively) sampled from school-based cohort and village-based cluster studies in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand, between 2004 and 2007. With these data, we sought to describe the spatial and temporal patterns of DENV spread within a rural population where a future vaccine efficacy trial is planned. Our analysis revealed considerable genetic diversity within the study population, with multiple lineages within each serotype circulating for various lengths of time during the study period. These results suggest that DENV is frequently introduced into both semi-urban and rural areas in Kamphaeng Phet from other populations. In contrast, the persistence of viral lineages across sampling years was observed less frequently. Analysis of phylogenetic clustering indicated that DENV transmission was highly spatially and temporally focal, and that it occurred in homes rather than at school. Overall, the strength of temporal clustering suggests that seasonal bottlenecks in local DENV populations facilitate the invasion and establishment of viruses from outside of the study area, in turn reducing the extent of lineage persistence.

In 2008, 800 rural Thai adults living within Kamphaeng Phet Province were enrolled in a prospective cohort study of zoonotic influenza transmission. Serological analyses of enrollment sera suggested this cohort had experienced subclinical avian influenza virus (AIV) infections with H9N2 and H5N1 viruses.After enrollment, participants were contacted weekly for 24 mos for acute influenza-like illnesses (ILI). Cohort members confirmed to have influenza A infections were enrolled with their household contacts in a family transmission study involving paired sera and respiratory swab collections. Cohort members also provided sera at 12 and 24 months after enrollment. Serologic and real-time RT-PCR assays were performed against avian, swine, and human influenza viruses.Over the 2 yrs of follow-up, 81 ILI investigations in the cohort were conducted; 31 (38%) were identified as influenza A infections by qRT-PCR. Eighty-three household contacts were enrolled; 12 (14%) reported ILIs, and 11 (92%) of those were identified as influenza infections. A number of subjects were found to have slightly elevated antibodies against avian-like A/Hong Kong/1073/1999(H9N2) virus: 21 subjects (2.7%) at 12-months and 40 subjects (5.1%) at 24-months. Among these, two largely asymptomatic acute infections with H9N2 virus were detected by >4-fold increases in annual serologic titers (final titers 1:80). While controlling for age and influenza vaccine receipt, moderate poultry exposure was significantly associated with elevated H9N2 titers (adjusted OR = 2.3; 95% CI, 1.04-5.2) at the 24-month encounter. One subject had an elevated titer (1:20) against H5N1 during follow-up.From 2008-10, evidence for AIV infections was sparse among this rural population. Subclinical H9N2 AIV infections likely occurred, but serological results were confounded by antibody cross-reactions. There is a critical need for improved serological diagnostics to more accurately detect subclinical AIV infections in humans.

Common causes of acute febrile illness in tropical countries have similar symptoms, which often mimic those of dengue. Accurate clinical diagnosis can be difficult without laboratory confirmation and disease burden is generally under-reported. Accurate, population-based, laboratory-confirmed incidence data on dengue and other causes of acute fever in dengue-endemic Asian countries are needed.This prospective, multicenter, active fever surveillance, cohort study was conducted in selected centers in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam to determine the incidence density of acute febrile episodes (≥ 38 °C for ≥ 2 days) in 1,500 healthy children aged 2-14 years, followed for a mean 237 days. Causes of fever were assessed by testing acute and convalescent sera from febrile participants for dengue, chikungunya, hepatitis A, influenza A, leptospirosis, rickettsia, and Salmonella Typhi. Overall, 289 participants had acute fever, an incidence density of 33.6 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 30.0; 37.8); 57% were IgM-positive for at least one of these diseases. The most common causes of fever by IgM ELISA were chikungunya (in 35.0% of in febrile participants) and S. Typhi (in 29.4%). The overall incidence density of dengue per 100 person-years was 3.4 by nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) antigen positivity (95% CI: 2.4; 4.8) and 7.3 (95% CI: 5.7; 9.2) by serology. Dengue was diagnosed in 11.4% (95% CI: 8.0; 15.7) and 23.9% (95% CI: 19.1; 29.2) of febrile participants by NS1 positivity and serology, respectively. Of the febrile episodes not clinically diagnosed as dengue, 5.3% were dengue-positive by NS1 antigen testing and 16.0% were dengue-positive by serology.During the study period, the most common identified causes of pediatric acute febrile illness among the seven tested for were chikungunya, S. Typhi and dengue. Not all dengue cases were clinically diagnosed; laboratory confirmation is essential to refine disease burden estimates.

Based on spatiotemporal clustering of human dengue virus (DENV) infections, transmission is thought to occur at fine spatiotemporal scales by horizontal transfer of virus between humans and mosquito vectors. To define the dimensions of local transmission and quantify the factors that support it, we examined relationships between infected humans and Aedes aegypti in Thai villages.Geographic cluster investigations of 100-meter radius were conducted around DENV-positive and DENV-negative febrile "index" cases (positive and negative clusters, respectively) from a longitudinal cohort study in rural Thailand. Child contacts and Ae. aegypti from cluster houses were assessed for DENV infection. Spatiotemporal, demographic, and entomological parameters were evaluated. In positive clusters, the DENV infection rate among child contacts was 35.3% in index houses, 29.9% in houses within 20 meters, and decreased with distance from the index house to 6.2% in houses 80-100 meters away (p

Disease incidence data are needed to guide decision-making for public health interventions. Although dengue is a reportable disease in Thailand and Cambodia, the degree that reported incidence underrecognizes true disease burden is unknown. We utilized dengue incidence calculated from laboratory-confirmed outpatient and inpatient cases in prospective cohort studies to estimate the magnitude of dengue underrecognition and to establish more accurate disease burden estimates for these countries.Cohort studies were conducted among children aged 95,000 children in Thailand and >58,000 children in Cambodia were estimated to be hospitalized due to dengue.Calculating MFs by comparing prospective cohort study data to locally-reported national surveillance data is one approach to more accurately assess disease burden. These data indicate that although dengue is regularly reported in many countries, national surveillance data significantly underrecognize the true burden of disease.

Dengue viruses are a major cause of morbidity in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Inapparent dengue is an important component of the overall burden of dengue infection. It provides a source of infection for mosquito transmission during the course of an epidemic, yet by definition is undetected by health care providers. Previous studies of inapparent or subclinical infection have reported varying ratios of symptomatic to inapparent dengue infection.In a prospective study of school children in Northern Thailand, we describe the spatial and temporal variation of the symptomatic to inapparent (S:I) dengue illness ratio. Our findings indicate that there is a wide fluctuation in this ratio between and among schools in a given year and within schools over several dengue seasons. The most important determinants of this S:I ratio for a given school were the incidence of dengue infection in a given year and the incidence of infection in the preceding year. We found no association between the S:I ratio and age in our population.Our findings point to an important aspect of virus-host interactions at either a population or individual level possibly due to an effect of heterotypic cross-reactive immunity to reduce dengue disease severity. These findings have important implications for future dengue vaccines.

BackgroundCutaneous Leishmania major has affected many travelers including military personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan. Optimal treatment for this localized infection has not been defined, but interestingly the parasite is thermosensitive.Methodology/principal findingsParticipants with parasitologically confirmed L. major infection were randomized to receive intravenous sodium stibogluconate (SSG) 20mg/kg/day for ten doses or localized ThermoMed (TM) device heat treatment (applied at 50 degrees C for 30 seconds) in one session. Those with facial lesions, infection with other species of Leishmania, or more than 20 lesions were excluded. Primary outcome was complete re-epithelialization or visual healing at two months without relapse over 12 months. Fifty-four/56 enrolled participants received intervention, 27 SSG and 27 TM. In an intent to treat analysis the per subject efficacy at two months with 12 months follow-up was 54% SSG and 48% TM (p = 0.78), and the per lesion efficacy was 59% SSG and 73% TM (p = 0.053). Reversible abdominal pain/pancreatitis, arthralgias, myalgias, headache, fatigue, mild cytopenias, and elevated transaminases were more commonly present in the SSG treated participants, whereas blistering, oozing, and erythema were more common in the TM arm.Conclusions/significanceSkin lesions due to L. major treated with heat delivered by the ThermoMed device healed at a similar rate and with less associated systemic toxicity than lesions treated with intravenous SSG.Clinical trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT 00884377.

It is unclear whether dengue serotypes differ in their propensity to cause severe disease. We analyzed differences in serotype-specific disease severity in children presenting for medical attention in Bangkok, Thailand.Prospective studies were conducted from 1994 to 2006. Univariate and multivariate logistic and multinomial logistic regressions were used to determine if dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and signs of severe clinical disease (pleural effusion, ascites, thrombocytopenia, hemoconcentration) were associated with serotype. Crude and adjusted odds ratios were calculated. There were 162 (36%) cases with DENV-1, 102 (23%) with DENV-2, 123 (27%) with DENV-3, and 64 (14%) with DENV-4. There was no significant difference in the rates of DHF by serotype: DENV-2 (43%), DENV-3 (39%), DENV-1 (34%), DENV-4 (31%). DENV-2 was significantly associated with increased odds of DHF grade I compared to DF (OR 2.9 95% CI 1.1, 8.0), when using DENV-1 as the reference. Though not statistically significant, DENV-2 had an increased odds of total DHF and DHF grades II, III, and IV. Secondary serologic response was significantly associated with DHF (OR 6.2) and increased when considering more severe grades of DHF. DENV-2 (9%) and -4 (3%) were significantly less often associated with primary disease than DENV-1 (28%) and -3 (33%). Restricting analysis to secondary cases, we found DENV-2 and DENV-3 to be twice as likely to result in DHF as DEN-4 (p = 0.05). Comparing study years, we found the rate of DHF to be significantly less in 1999, 2000, 2004, and 2005 than in 1994, the study year with the highest percentage of DHF cases, even when controlling for other variables.As in other studies, we find secondary disease to be strongly associated with DHF and with more severe grades of DHF. DENV-2 appears to be marginally associated with more severe dengue disease as evidenced by a significant association with DHF grade I when compared to DENV-1. In addition, we found non-significant trends with other grades of DHF. Restricting the analysis to secondary disease we found DENV-2 and -3 to be twice as likely to result in DHF as DEN-4. Differences in severity by study year may suggest that other factors besides serotype play a role in disease severity.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is the severe and life-threatening syndrome that can develop after infection with any one of the four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes. DHF occurs almost exclusively in individuals with secondary heterologous DENV infections and infants with primary DENV infections born to dengue immune mothers. The widely accepted explanation for the pathogenesis of DHF in these settings, particularly during infancy, is antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of DENV infection.We conducted a prospective nested case-control study of DENV infections during infancy. Clinical data and blood samples were collected from 4,441 mothers and infants in up to two pre-illness study visits, and surveillance was performed for symptomatic and inapparent DENV infections. Pre-illness plasma samples were used to measure the associations between maternally derived anti-DENV3 antibody-neutralizing and -enhancing capacities at the time of DENV3 infection and development of infant DHF. The study captured 60 infants with DENV infections across a wide spectrum of disease severity. DENV3 was the predominant serotype among the infants with symptomatic (35/40) and inapparent (15/20) DENV infections, and 59/60 infants had a primary DENV infection. The estimated in vitro anti-DENV3 neutralizing capacity at birth positively correlated with the age of symptomatic primary DENV3 illness in infants. At the time of symptomatic DENV3 infection, essentially all infants had low anti-DENV3 neutralizing activity (50% plaque reduction neutralizing titers [PRNT(50)] 50 is associated with protection from symptomatic DENV3 illness. We did not find a significant association between DENV3 ADE activity at illness onset and the development of DHF compared with less severe symptomatic illness. The results of this study should encourage rethinking or refinement of the current ADE pathogenesis model for infant DHF and stimulate new directions of research into mechanisms responsible for the development of DHF during infancy.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00377754.