1. Assessing Long-term Treatment Benefits Using Complementary Statistical Approaches: An In Silico Analysis of the Phase III Keynote-045 and Checkmate-214 Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Trials
- Author
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Ana Cavillon, Damien Pouessel, Nadine Houédé, Fanny Mathevet, Jean Yves Dauxois, Christine Chevreau, Stéphane Culine, Jean-Pierre Delord, Raphael Porcher, Thomas Filleron, Institut Claudius Regaud, Département d'oncologie médicale, Institut de Cancérologie du GARD ICG - CHU Nîmes (Instit Cancéro - GARD), Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse UMR5219 (IMT), Université Toulouse Capitole (UT Capitole), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse (INSA Toulouse), Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès (UT2J), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Curie [Paris], Equipe 5 : METHODS - Méthodes de l’évaluation thérapeutique des maladies chroniques (CRESS - U1153), Centre de Recherche Épidémiologie et Statistique Sorbonne Paris Cité (CRESS (U1153 / UMR_A_1125 / UMR_S_1153)), Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Université Sorbonne Paris Cité (USPC)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Université Sorbonne Paris Cité (USPC)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centre d'épidémiologie Clinique [Hôtel-Dieu], and Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Hôpital Hôtel Dieu
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[STAT]Statistics [stat] ,Long-term benefit ,Flexible parametric survival model with cure ,Urology ,[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] ,Milestone survival ,[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie ,Immune checkpoint inhibitor ,[SDV.MHEP.UN]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Urology and Nephrology - Abstract
International audience; BackgroundThe Keynote-045 trial illustrates that the long-term benefit (LTB) of treatment does not always translate to improved progression-free survival (PFS). Milestone survival and flexible parametric survival model with cure (FPCM) have been proposed as complementary statistical approaches to more comprehensively evaluate LTBs of treatments.ObjectiveThe current study compares milestone survival and FPCM analyses to evaluate treatment effects of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) phase III trials.Design, setting, and participantsIndividual patient data, from initial and follow-up analyses of Keynote-045 (urothelial cancer) and Checkmate-214 (advanced renal cell carcinoma), were reconstructed for PFS.Outcome measurements and statistical analysisEach trial was reanalyzed using the Cox proportional hazard regression and two complementary methods (milestone survival and FPCM) to estimate treatment impact on the LTB.Results and limitationsFor each trial, there was evidence of nonproportional hazards. For the long-term analysis of the Keynote-045 trial, FPCM identified a time-dependent effect on PFS, but the Cox model found no statistical difference in PFS (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.75–1.08). Milestone survival and FPCM identified improvements in the LTB fractions. This was consistent with the results from the reanalysis of Keynote-045, based on the shorter follow-up, although the LTB fraction was not retained. The increase in PFS in Checkmate-214 was identified by both Cox model and FPCM. Experimental treatment-dependent improvement in the LTB fraction was demonstrated using milestone survival and FPCM. The LTB fraction estimated with FPCM was consistent with the results from the reanalysis of the shorter follow-up period.ConclusionsAlthough ICIs show substantial shifts toward LTBs in terms of PFS, based on a conventional Kaplan-Meier or Cox model analysis, our approach provides an alternative assessment of benefit-risk ratios for new therapeutics and facilitates communicating risk to patients. Kidney patients treated with ICIs can be counseled that they are potentially cured, but future work will need to definitively validate this conclusion.
- Published
- 2023
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