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Large-scale, high-input, and intensified agriculture poses threats to sustainable agroecosystems and their inherent biodiversity. The EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) covers a great number of nature conservation programs (Agri-Environment and Climate Measures, AECM) aiming to encourage sustainable agriculture. Currently, farmers are not encouraged to broadly implement these measures due to the lack of structured information, overly complicated and unclear application procedures, and a high risk of sanctions. In addition, the current structures are associated with time-consuming monitoring and control procedures for the paying agencies. Digital technologies can offer valuable assistance to circumvent relevant barriers and limitations and support a broader uptake of AECM. NatApp is a digital tool that supports and guides farmers through the complete process of choosing, applying, implementing, and documenting AECM on their fields in accordance with legal requirements in Germany. We introduce the concept of NatApp and analyze how it can simplify and encourage the uptake and implementation of AECM. This study identifies its unique features for the provision of information and documentation opportunities compared with other digital farming tools focused on sustainable agriculture and outline how it can support farmers to actively contribute to more sustainable agriculture. “Cross-federal state implementation study on the use of the nature conservation app (NatApp) in agricultural and administrative practice-NatApp 2.0”

The agri-food system is a vital and complex social-ecological system characterized by interactions between humans and the environment. For such systems, qualitative scenarios (QS) can generate pictures of possible futures, which combined with quantitative modelling allow identifying pathways towards improved resilience and exploring system uncertainties. However, the interpretation of qualitative narratives into quantitative simulation parameters remains challenging due to system complexity. In this study, we translate QS into quantitative agent-based model (ABM) parameters and estimate the likelihood of each scenario in the evolved agri-food system in response to individual actions. We implement a five-step approach consisting of: i) the generation of the QS, ii) the parameterization of the ABM iii) the translation of scenario assumptions into ABM parameters, iv) the validation of our results via an expert workshop, v) the assessment of the scenarios in the evolved system. The results of an illustrative example reveal that, with the implementation of cropping diversification, the system will evolve to a combination of scenario 1, 2, 3 and 4 at probabilities of 9 %, 35 %, 30 % and 26 %, respectively, which change under different management options. Overall, we conclude that QS-ABM combination is a promising approach to provide robust quantitative projections of the agri-food system future.

By leveraging a wide range of novel, data-driven technologies for agricultural production and agri-food value chains, digital agriculture presents potential enhancements to sustainability across food systems. Accordingly, digital agriculture has received considerable attention in policy in recent years, with emphasis mostly placed on the potential of digital agriculture to improve efficiency, productivity and food security, and less attention given to how digitalization may impact other principles of sustainable development, such as biodiversity conservation, soil protection, and human health, for example. Here, we review high-level policy and law in the German and European context to highlight a number of important institutional, societal, and legal preconditions for leveraging digital agriculture to achieve diverse sustainability targets. Additionally, we combine foresight analysis with our review to reflect on how future frame conditions influencing agricultural digitalization and sustainability could conceivably arise. The major points are the following: (1) some polices consider the benefits of digital agriculture, although only to a limited extent and mostly in terms of resource use efficiency; (2) law as it applies to digital agriculture is emerging but is highly fragmented; and (3) the adoption of digital agriculture and if it is used to enhance sustainability will be dependent on future data ownership regimes.The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-022-00792-6.

Purpose Bioenergy is a key component of climate change mitigation strategies aiming at low stabilization. Its versatility and capacity to generate negative emissions when combined with carbon capture and storage add degrees of freedom to the timing of emission reductions. This paper aims to explore the robustness of a bioenergy-based mitigation strategy by addressing several dimensions of uncertainty on biomass potential, bioenergy use and induced land use change emissions. Design/methodology/approach Different mitigation scenarios were explored by two different energy-economy optimization models coupled to the same land use model, which provides a common basis for the second generation bioenergy dynamics in the two energy-economy models. Findings Using bioenergy is found to be a robust mitigation strategy as demonstrated by high biomass shares in primary energy demand in both models and in all mitigation scenarios. Practical implications A variety of possible storylines about future uses of biomass exist. The comparison of the technology choices preferred by the applied models helps understand how future emission reductions can be achieved under alternative storylines. Originality/value The presented comparison-based assessment goes beyond other comparison studies because both energy-economy models are coupled to the same land use model.

This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.

Crop residues contribute to the maintenance of soil organic carbon (SOC) stores, a key component of soil fertility and soil-based climate change mitigation strategies, such as the ‘4 per 1000’ initiative. Residues are also in demand in sectors coupled to crop production, such as the supply chain of livestock and bioenergy production. Ongoing debate revolves around balancing these competing uses, but science-based assessments of the long-term sustainability of residue exploitation are rare. This work uses biophysical simulation modelling to explore the likely response of SOC to different management strategies, using the land area of North Rhine-Westphalia (Germany) as a case study. Four strategies are tested: zero, one third and 100% removal of cereal residues, plus an approach proposed by the State farm advisory service. Simulations are carried out for the period 1971–2050 and 19 crop rotations coincident with land use throughout the study area. Uncertainty associated with the modelled SOC changes is explored by sampling values of relevant parameters for SOC turnover and running an ensemble of model configurations. Simulated SOC is used to trace time-dependent response functions following a change in residue management under different soil textures, initial SOC levels and crop rotations. Results highlight a general exponential decrease in SOC, with relative changes in 2050 distributed between +10% and −40% with respect to a reference period. SOC loss can be buffered or offset by returning all crop residues to the soil. Under such management, an SOC increase can be achieved on clayey soils characterized by a low initial SOC. Under moderate crop residue removal, positive SOC trends are limited to a few crop rotations. In this context, 4 per 1000 increase rate in SOC appears largely out of reach through residue management, calling for additional measures to meet the targets of land-based mitigation of anthropogenic emissions.

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impacts projections. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the effects of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term effects up to 2299, compared to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impacts projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, health, and tropical cyclones).

We investigate the extent to which future energy transformation pathways meeting ambitious climate change mitigation targets depend on assumptions about economic growth and fossil fuel availability. The analysis synthesizes results from the RoSE multi-model study aiming to identify robust and sensitive features of mitigation pathways under these inherently uncertain drivers of energy and emissions developments. Based on an integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we show that economic growth and fossil resource assumptions substantially affect baseline developments, but in no case they lead to the significant greenhouse gas emission reduction that would be needed to achieve long-term climate targets without dedicated climate policy. The influence of economic growth and fossil resource assumptions on climate mitigation pathways is relatively small due to overriding requirements imposed by long-term climate targets. While baseline assumptions can have substantial effects on mitigation costs and carbon prices, we find that the effects of model differences and the stringency of the climate target are larger compared to that of baseline assumptions. We conclude that inherent uncertainties about socio-economic determinants like economic growth and fossil resource availability can be effectively dealt with in the assessment of mitigation pathways.

The EU Water Framework Directive requires the involvement and participation of stakeholders and the public, and considers full cost recovery for water services for enhancing the sustainability of water resource management. The Directive is non prescriptive as to how public participation should be operationalised in practice, and Member States appear to be adopting different participatory practices. This study explores the issue of public participation in the context of the Pinios River Basin in Greece, a pilot area for the WFD implementation. The study uses Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping, a form of qualitative modeling linked to stakeholders' perceptions. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping has been used to elicit stakeholder and public perceptions on the current state and pressures on water resources and the acceptability of applying economic principles in water resource management. Based on these perceptions, different water management policy options have been simulated in order to explore their potential effects on the water resources and the economy of the area. The study outlines public and stakeholder perceptions on the application of full cost recovery for water services and offers a perspective on the potential contribution of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping in participatory river basin management.

This document describes the REMIND model in its version 1.6. REMIND is an integrated assessment model of the energy-economy-climate system. REMIND stands for “Regional Model of Investments and Development.”

Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO2-emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.

This document describes the REMIND model in its version 1.5. REMIND is an integrated assessment model of the energy-economy-climate system. REMIND stands for “Regional Model of Investments and Development.”

Emission inequality across countries and the contribution of the energy mix and the sectoral composition of a country s energy use are of central importance to the climate debate. We analyze the evolution of inequality in global CO2 per capita emissions using both historical data on energy-related CO2 emissions and future emission scenarios generated with the integrated assessment model REMIND. Within our sample of 90 countries the results indicate that the Gini index declined from about 0.6 in 1971 to slightly above 0.4 in 2008. A decomposition of the Gini index of total emissions into primary energy carriers and into economic sectors provides additional insights. From the perspective of primary energy carriers, it is indicated that this reduction is mainly attributed to declining shares of emissions from coal/peat and oil in total emissions, and decreasing emission inequality within all fossil primary energy sources. From the perspective of economic sectors, the decline in overall inequality is almost entirely due to a pronounced decline of the contribution of emissions from manufacturing & construction. Our analysis also suggests that an equally spread emission reduction from any one source (i.e. primary energy carrier or economic sector) would not have a major impact on overall emission inequality. The analysis of future scenario data indicates that climate policy reduces absolute emissions inequality, while inducing drastic progressive emission reductions in all regions

Water resource management is an inherently complex, multi-scale and multi-disciplinary process involving many interdependent components. As each of these components is the focus of several socio-economic and scientific disciplines, an approach that crosses disciplinary boundaries is needed to provide constructive input to policy making. Scientific approaches have been developed that study the complex relationships between the economic and ecological systems and that aim to provide knowledge for sustainable management of water resources. Such approaches are interdisciplinary in nature, where interdisciplinarity refers to the cooperation of many scientific disciplines, in order to analyse the relationship between the economic and natural system (Baumgartner et al. 2008). Bio-economic modelling is one of those.

International audience; Bio-economic models can be used to assess the impact of policy and environmental measures through economic and environmental indicators. Focusing on agricultural systems, farmers’ decisions in terms of cropping systems and the associated crop management at field scale are essential in such studies. The objective of this paper is to present a study using a bio-economic model to assess the impact of the Nitrate Directive in the Midi-Pyrenees region (France) by analyzing, at the farm scale, farm income and three environmental indicators: nitrate leaching, erosion and water consumption. Two scenarios, the 2003 CAP reform (baseline scenario) and the Nitrate Directive (policy scenario), with a 2013 time horizon, were developed and compared for three representative arable farm types in the Midi-Pyrenees region. Different types of data characterizing the biophysical context in the region (soil, climate), the current cropping systems (rotation, crop management) and farm resources (irrigated land, labor) were collected to calibrate and run the models. Results showed that the implementation of the Nitrate Directive may not affect farm income. However, significant modifications to cropping systems and crop allocation to soil types were simulated. Contrary to expectations, nitrogen leaching at the farm scale did not change. Overall water consumption increased and soil erosion decreased due mainly to a modification in cropping patterns and management by soil type. This study provides an example of unanticipated effects of policy and trade-offs between environmental issues.

This chapter is based on two separate case studies concerned with water use and water use policy. One is a study concerning public participation in the Water Framework Directive (WFD) of the European Union (EU) (Mouratiadou & Moran, 2007), and focuses on data collected in the Pinios river basin in Greece. The other is based on previously unpublished research by the authors on transboundary river issues in the Maritza river basin shared between Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey. Apart from the obvious similarities of location and their focus on water resources, the two studies are linked by some underlying factors that directly impact on our choice of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) as an analytical method.

This paper looks into the regional mitigation strategies of five major economies (China, EU, India, Japan, and USA) in the context of the 2°C target, using a multi-model comparison. In order to stay in line with the 2°C target, a tripling or quadrupling of mitigation ambitions is required in all regions by 2050, employing vigorous decarbonization of the energy supply system and achieving negative emissions during the second half of the century. In all regions looked at, decarbonization of energy supply (and in particular power generation) is more important than reducing energy demand. Some differences in abatement strategies across the regions are projected: In India and the USA the emphasis is on prolonging fossil fuel use by coupling conventional technologies with carbon storage, whereas the other main strategy depicts a shift to carbon-neutral technologies with mostly renewables (China, EU) or nuclear power (Japan). Regions with access to large amounts of biomass, such as the USA, China, and the EU, can make a trade-off between energy related emissions and land related emissions, as the use of bioenergy can lead to a net increase in land use emissions. After supply-side changes, the most important abatement strategy focuses on end-use efficiency improvements, leading to considerable emission reductions in both the industry and transport sectors across all regions. Abatement strategies for non- CO 2 emissions and land use emissions are found to have a smaller potential. Inherent model, as well as collective, biases have been observed affecting the regional response strategy or the available reduction potential in specific (end-use) sectors.

Although our knowledge of climate change impacts on energy systems has increased substantially over the past few decades, there remains a lack of comprehensive overview of impacts across spatial scales. Here, we analyse results of 220 studies projecting climate impacts on energy systems globally and at the regional scale. Globally, a potential increase in cooling demand and decrease in heating demand can be anticipated, in contrast to slight decreases in hydropower and thermal energy capacity. Impacts at the regional scale are more mixed and relatively uncertain across regions, but strongest impacts are reported for South Asia and Latin America. Our assessment shows that climate impacts on energy systems at regional and global scales are uncertain due partly to the wide range of methods and non-harmonized datasets used. For a comprehensive assessment of climate impacts on energy, we propose a consistent multi-model assessment framework to support regional-to-global-scale energy planning.

Chapitre 18; The 2003 Common Agricultural Policy reform aimed to promote the socio-economic and environmental sustainability of agricultural systems. An important question is how far the reform has indeed encouraged farmers to contribute to achieving broad economic and environmental goals. The economic and water resource effects of the reform have been explored for the case study area of the Lunan catchment, which is typical of Scottish arable cropping areas. Land use data analysis, bio-physical modelling and bio-economic modeling were used in combination to identify the effects of a range of scenarios. The results indicate only small changes in the cropping pattern and associated economic and water quality indicators as a result of the reform, with the main changes in farmers' decision making being explained by crop price changes.; La réforme de la Politique Agricole Commune de 2003 avait pour objectif de promouvoir la viabilité socio-économique et environnementale des systèmes agricoles. Une question importante est de savoir jusqu'où cette réforme a, en effet, encouragé les agriculteurs à contribuer à la réalisation des grands objectifs économiques et environnementaux. Les effets économiques et sur la qualité de l'eau de la réforme ont été explorés à travers une étude de cas du bassin versant de Lunan, qui est typique des zones arables en Ecosse. L'analyse de données sur l'utilisation des terres, la modélisation bio-physique et la modélisation bio-économique ont été utilisées en combinaison pour analyser les effets d'un éventail de scénarios. Les résultats montrent seulement de petits changements au niveau de l’occupation des sols et des indicateurs associés à la suite de la réforme. Les principaux changements sont plutôt expliqués par les variations de prix des cultures.

Selecting cost-effective measures to regulate agricultural water pollution to conform to the Water Framework Directive presents multiple challenges. A bio-economic modelling approach is presented that has been used to explore the water quality and economic effects of the 2003 Common Agricultural Policy Reform and to assess the cost-effectiveness of input quotas and emission standards against nitrate leaching, in a representative case study catchment in Scotland. The approach combines a biophysical model (NDICEA) with a mathematical programming model (FSSIM-MP). The results indicate only small changes due to the Reform, with the main changes in farmers’ decision making and the associated economic and water quality indicators depending on crop price changes, and suggest the use of target fertilisation in relation to crop and soil requirements, as opposed to measures targeting farm total or average nitrogen use.; La sélection des mesures coût-efficacité pour régler la pollution de l'eau en agriculture conformément à la Directive Cadre sur l'eau présente de multiples défis. Une approche de modélisation bioéconomique est utilisée pour étudier la qualité de l'eau et les effets économiques de la réforme de la PAC de 2003 et évaluer le rapport coût-efficacité des quotas d'entrée et de normes d'émission contre le lessivage des nitrates, à travers une étude de cas représentative d’un bassin versant en Ecosse. L'approche combine un modèle biophysique (NDICEA) et un modèle de programmation mathématique (FSSIM-MP). Les résultats montrent seulement de petits changements en raison de la réforme de la PAC et suggèrent l'utilisation de la fertilisation ciblée en relation aux cultures et aux besoins du sol, par opposition à des mesures visant le niveau total ou moyen d'utilisation d’azote dans l’exploitation.