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3. Quantifying uncertainty in spatio-temporal changes of upper-ocean heat content estimates: an internationally coordinated comparison

Author

Savita, Abhishek, Domingues, Catia M., Boyer, Tim, Gouretski, Viktor, Ishii, Masayoshi, Johnson, Gregory C., Lyman, John M., Willis, Josh K., Marsland, Simon J., Hobbs, William, Church, John A., Monselesan, Didier P., Dobrohotoff, Peter, Cowley, Rebecca, and Wijffels, Susan E.

Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

The Earth system is accumulating energy due to human-induced activities. More than 90 percent of this energy has been stored in the ocean as heat since 1970, with about 64 percent of that in the upper 700 m. Differences in upper ocean heat content anomaly (OHCA) estimates, however, exist. Here, we evaluate spread in upper OHCA estimates arising from choices in instrumental bias corrections and mapping methods, in addition to the effect of using a common ocean mask. The same dataset was mapped by six research groups for 1970 to 2008, with six instrumental bias corrections applied to expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data. We find that use of a common ocean mask may impact estimation of global OHCA by +- 13 percent. Uncertainty due to mapping method dominates over XBT bias correction at a global scale and is largest in the Indian Ocean and in the eddy-rich and frontal regions of all basins. Uncertainty due to XBT bias correction is largest in the Pacific Ocean within 30N to 30S. In both mapping and XBT cases, spread is higher since the 1990s. Important differences in spatial trends among mapping methods are found in the well-observed Northwest Atlantic and the poorly-observed Southern Ocean. Although our results cannot identify the best mapping or bias correction schemes, they identify where and when greater uncertainties exist, and so where further refinements may yield the largest improvements. Our results highlight the need for a future international coordination to evaluate performance of existing mapping methods., Comment: Submitted to AMS Journal of Climate (30 July 2020). Feedback welcome. Please email: abhishek.abhisheksavita@utas.edu.au

Published
2020

4. Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Author

Forster, Piers M., primary, Smith, Chris, additional, Walsh, Tristram, additional, Lamb, William F., additional, Lamboll, Robin, additional, Hall, Bradley, additional, Hauser, Mathias, additional, Ribes, Aurélien, additional, Rosen, Debbie, additional, Gillett, Nathan P., additional, Palmer, Matthew D., additional, Rogelj, Joeri, additional, von Schuckmann, Karina, additional, Trewin, Blair, additional, Allen, Myles, additional, Andrew, Robbie, additional, Betts, Richard A., additional, Borger, Alex, additional, Boyer, Tim, additional, Broersma, Jiddu A., additional, Buontempo, Carlo, additional, Burgess, Samantha, additional, Cagnazzo, Chiara, additional, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Gettelman, Andrew, additional, Gütschow, Johannes, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Jenkins, Stuart, additional, Lan, Xin, additional, Morice, Colin, additional, Mühle, Jens, additional, Kadow, Christopher, additional, Kennedy, John, additional, Killick, Rachel E., additional, Krummel, Paul B., additional, Minx, Jan C., additional, Myhre, Gunnar, additional, Naik, Vaishali, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Pirani, Anna, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Szopa, Sophie, additional, Thorne, Peter, additional, Kovilakam, Mahesh V. M., additional, Majamäki, Elisa, additional, Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka, additional, van Marle, Margreet, additional, Hoesly, Rachel M., additional, Rohde, Robert, additional, Schumacher, Dominik, additional, van der Werf, Guido, additional, Vose, Russell, additional, Zickfeld, Kirsten, additional, Zhang, Xuebin, additional, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, additional, and Zhai, Panmao, additional

Published
2024
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5. Global Historical Reanalysis with a 60-km AGCM and Surface Pressure Observations: OCADA

Author

ISHII, Masayoshi, primary, KAMAHORI, Hirotaka, additional, KUBOTA, Hisayuki, additional, ZAIKI, Masumi, additional, MIZUTA, Ryo, additional, KAWASE, Hiroaki, additional, NOSAKA, Masaya, additional, YOSHIMURA, Hiromasa, additional, OSHIMA, Naga, additional, SHINDO, Eiki, additional, KOYAMA, Hiroshi, additional, MORI, Masato, additional, HIRAHARA, Shoji, additional, IMADA, Yukiko, additional, YOSHIDA, Kohei, additional, NOZAWA, Toru, additional, TAKEMI, Tetsuya, additional, MAKI, Takashi, additional, and NISHIMURA, Akio, additional

Published
2024
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6. Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

Author

Polkova, Iuliia, primary, Swingedouw, Didier, additional, Hermanson, Leon, additional, Köhl, Armin, additional, Stammer, Detlef, additional, Smith, Doug, additional, Kröger, Jürgen, additional, Bethke, Ingo, additional, Yang, Xiaosong, additional, Zhang, Liping, additional, Nicolì, Dario, additional, Athanasiadis, Panos J., additional, Karami, Mehdi Pasha, additional, Pankatz, Klaus, additional, Pohlmann, Holger, additional, Wu, Bo, additional, Bilbao, Roberto, additional, Ortega, Pablo, additional, Yang, Shuting, additional, Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel, additional, Merryfield, William, additional, Kataoka, Takahito, additional, Tatebe, Hiroaki, additional, Imada, Yukiko, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, and Matear, Richard J., additional

Published
2023
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8. What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Author

Couldrey, Matthew P., Gregory, Jonathan M., Boeira Dias, Fabio, Dobrohotoff, Peter, Domingues, Catia M., Garuba, Oluwayemi, Griffies, Stephen M., Haak, Helmuth, Hu, Aixue, Ishii, Masayoshi, Jungclaus, Johann, Köhl, Armin, Marsland, Simon J., Ojha, Sayantani, Saenko, Oleg A., Savita, Abhishek, Shao, Andrew, Stammer, Detlef, Suzuki, Tatsuo, Todd, Alexander, and Zanna, Laure

Published
2021
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12. Attributing Historical Changes in Probabilities of Record-Breaking Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events

Author

Shiogama, Hideo, Imada, Yukiko, Mori, Masato, Mizuta, Ryo, Stone, Dáithí, Yoshida, Kohei, Arakawa, Osamu, Ikeda, Mikiko, Takahashi, Chiharu, Arai, Miki, Ishii, Masayoshi, Watanabe, Masahiro, and Kimoto, Masahide

Subjects
Oceanography, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Abstract

We describe two unprecedented large (100-member), longterm (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the "Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)". We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicate that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001- 2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.

Published
2016

13. Introduction

Author

Boyer, Tim, primary, Bartow-Gillies, Ellen, additional, Abida, A., additional, Ades, Melanie, additional, Adler, Robert, additional, Adusumilli, Susheel, additional, Agyakwah, W., additional, Ahmasuk, Brandon, additional, Aldeco, Laura S., additional, Alexe, Mihai, additional, Alfaro, Eric J., additional, Allan, Richard P., additional, Allgood, Adam, additional, Alves, Lincoln. M., additional, Amador, Jorge A., additional, Anderson, John, additional, Andrade, B., additional, Anneville, Orlane, additional, Aono, Yasuyuki, additional, Arguez, Anthony, additional, Arosio, Carlo, additional, Atkinson, C., additional, Augustine, John A., additional, Avalos, Grinia, additional, Azorin-Molina, Cesar, additional, Backensto, Stacia A., additional, Bader, Stephan, additional, Baez, Julian, additional, Baiman, Rebecca, additional, Ballinger, Thomas J., additional, Banwell, Alison F., additional, Bardin, M. Yu, additional, Barichivich, Jonathan, additional, Barnes, John E., additional, Barreira, Sandra, additional, Beadling, Rebecca L., additional, Beck, Hylke E., additional, Becker, Emily J., additional, Bekele, E., additional, Bellido, Guillem Martín, additional, Bellouin, Nicolas, additional, Benedetti, Angela, additional, Benestad, Rasmus, additional, Berne, Christine, additional, Berner, Logan. T., additional, Bernhard, Germar H., additional, Bhatt, Uma S., additional, Bhuiyan, A. E., additional, Bigalke, Siiri, additional, Biló, Tiago, additional, Bissolli, Peter, additional, Bjerke Jarle, W., additional, Blagrave, Kevin, additional, Blake, Eric S., additional, Blenkinsop, Stephen, additional, Blunden, Jessica, additional, Bochníček, Oliver, additional, Bock, Olivier, additional, Bodenstein, Barbara, additional, Bodin, Xavier, additional, Bosilovich, Michael, additional, Boucher, Olivier, additional, Bozkurt, Deniz, additional, Brettschneider, Brian, additional, Bringas, Francis G., additional, Bringas, Francis, additional, Buechler, Dennis, additional, Buehler, Stefan A., additional, Bukunt, Brandon, additional, Calderón, Blanca, additional, Camargo, Suzana J., additional, Campbell, Jayaka, additional, Campos, Diego, additional, Carrea, Laura, additional, Carter, Brendan R., additional, Cetinić, Ivona, additional, Chambers, Don P., additional, Chan, Duo, additional, Chandler, Elise, additional, Chang, Kai-Lan, additional, Chen, Hua, additional, Chen, Lin, additional, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Cheng, Vincent Y. S., additional, Chomiak, Leah, additional, Christiansen, Hanne H., additional, Christy, John R., additional, Chung, Eui-Seok, additional, Ciasto, Laura M., additional, Clarke, Leonardo, additional, Clem, Kyle R., additional, Clingan, Scott, additional, Coelho, Caio A.S., additional, Cohen, Judah L., additional, Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, additional, Colwell, Steve, additional, Cooper, Owen R., additional, Cornes, Richard C., additional, Correa, Kris, additional, Costa, Felipe, additional, Covey, Curt, additional, Coy, Lawrence, additional, Créatux, Jean-François, additional, Crhova, Lenka, additional, Crimmins, Theresa, additional, Cronin, Meghan F., additional, Cropper, Thomas, additional, Crotwell, Molly, additional, Culpepper, Joshua, additional, Cunha, Ana P., additional, Cusicanqui, Diego, additional, Datta, Rajashree T., additional, Davis, Sean M., additional, De Bock, Veerle, additional, de Jeu, Richard A. M., additional, De Laat, Jos, additional, Decharme, Bertrand, additional, Degenstein, Doug, additional, Delaloye, Reynald, additional, Demircan, Mesut, additional, Derksen, Chris, additional, Deus, Ricardo, additional, Dhurmea, K. R., additional, Diamond, Howard J., additional, Dirkse, S., additional, Divine, Dmitry, additional, Dokulil, Martin T., additional, Donat, Markus G., additional, Dong, Shenfu, additional, Dorigo, Wouter A., additional, Drost Jensen, Caroline, additional, Druckenmiller, Matthew L., additional, Drumond, Paula, additional, du Plessis, Marcel, additional, Dugan, Hilary A., additional, Dulamsuren, Dashkhuu, additional, Dunmire, Devon, additional, Dunn, Robert J. H., additional, Durre, Imke, additional, Dusek, Robert, additional, Dutton, Geoff, additional, Duveiller, Gregory, additional, Ekici, Mithat, additional, Elias Chereque, Alesksandra, additional, ElKharrim, M., additional, Epstein, Howard E., additional, Espinoza, Jhan-Carlo, additional, Estilow, Thomas W., additional, Estrella, Nicole, additional, Fauchereau, Nicolas, additional, Fausto, Robert S., additional, Feely, Richard A., additional, Fenimore, Chris, additional, Fereday, David, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Fioletov, vitali E., additional, Flemming, Johannes, additional, Fogarty, Chris, additional, Fogt, Ryan L., additional, Forbes, Bruce C., additional, Foster, Michael J., additional, Franz, Bryan A., additional, Freeman, Natalie M., additional, Fricker, Helen A., additional, Frith, Stacey M., additional, Froidevaux, Lucien, additional, Frost, Gerald V. (JJ), additional, Fuhrman, Steven, additional, Füllekrug, Martin, additional, Ganter, Catherine, additional, Gao, Meng, additional, Gardner, Alex S., additional, Garforth, Judith, additional, Garg, Jay, additional, Gerland, Sebastian, additional, Gibbes, Badin, additional, Gille, Sarah T., additional, Gilson, John, additional, Gleason, Karin, additional, Gobron, Nadine, additional, Goetz, Scott J., additional, Goldenberg, Stanley B., additional, Goni, Gustavo, additional, Goodman, Steven, additional, Goto, Atsushi, additional, Grooß, Jens-Uwe, additional, Gruber, Alexander, additional, Gu, Guojun, additional, Guard, Charles “Chip” P., additional, Hagos, S., additional, Hahn, Sebastian, additional, Haimberger, Leopold, additional, Hall, Bradley D., additional, Hamlington, Benjamin D., additional, Hanna, Edward, additional, Hanssen-Bauer, Inger, additional, Harnos, Daniel S., additional, Harris, Ian, additional, He, Qiong, additional, Heim, Richard R., additional, Hellström, Sverker, additional, Hemming, Deborah L., additional, Hendricks, Stefan, additional, Hicks, J., additional, Hidalgo, Hugo G., additional, Hirschi, Martin, additional, Ho, Shu-peng (Ben), additional, Hobbs, W., additional, Holmes, Robert M., additional, Holzworth, Robert, additional, Hrbáček, Filip, additional, Hu, Guojie, additional, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, additional, Huang, Boyin, additional, Huang, Hongjie, additional, Hurst, Dale F., additional, Ialongo, Iolanda, additional, Inness, Antje, additional, Isaksen, Ketil, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Jadra, Gerardo, additional, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, additional, John, Viju O., additional, Johns, W., additional, Johnsen, Bjørn, additional, Johnson, Bryan, additional, Johnson, Gregory C., additional, Jones, Philip D., additional, Jones, Timothy, additional, Josey, Simon A., additional, Jumaux, G., additional, Junod, Robert, additional, Kääb, Andreas, additional, Kabidi, K., additional, Kaiser, Johannes W., additional, Kaler, Robb S.A., additional, Kaleschke, Lars, additional, Kaufmann, Viktor, additional, Kazemi, Amin Fazl, additional, Keller, Linda M., additional, Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas, additional, Kendon, Mike, additional, Kennedy, John, additional, Kent, Elizabeth C., additional, Kerr, Kenneth, additional, Khan, Valentina, additional, Khiem, Mai Van, additional, Kidd, Richard, additional, Kim, Mi Ju, additional, Kim, Seong-Joong, additional, Kipling, Zak, additional, Klotzbach, Philip J., additional, Knaff, John A., additional, Koppa, Akash, additional, Korshunova, Natalia N., additional, Kraemer, Benjamin M., additional, Kramarova, Natalya A., additional, Kruger, A. C., additional, Kruger, Andries, additional, Kumar, Arun, additional, L’Heureux, Michelle, additional, La Fuente, Sofia, additional, Laas, Alo, additional, Labe, Zachary M., additional, Lader, Rick, additional, Lakatos, Mónika, additional, Lakkala, Kaisa, additional, Lam, Hoang Phuc, additional, Lan, Xin, additional, Landschützer, Peter, additional, Landsea, Chris W., additional, Lang, Timothy, additional, Lankhorst, Matthias, additional, Lantz, Kathleen O., additional, Lara, Mark J., additional, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, additional, Lavers, David A., additional, Lazzara, Matthew A., additional, Leblanc, Thierry, additional, Lee, Tsz-Cheung, additional, Leibensperger, Eric M., additional, Lennard, Chris, additional, Leuliette, Eric, additional, Leung, Kinson H. Y., additional, Lieser, Jan L., additional, Likso, Tanja, additional, Lin, I-I., additional, Lindsey, Jackie, additional, Liu, Yakun, additional, Locarnini, Ricardo, additional, Loeb, Norman G., additional, Loomis, Bryant D., additional, Lorrey, Andrew M., additional, Loyola, Diego, additional, Lu, Rui, additional, Lumpkin, Rick, additional, Luo, Jing-Jia, additional, Luojus, Kari, additional, Lyman, John M., additional, Maberly, Stephen C., additional, Macander, Matthew J., additional, MacFerrin, Michael, additional, MacGilchrist, Graeme A., additional, MacLennan, Michelle L., additional, Madelon, Remi, additional, Magee, Andrew D., additional, Magnin, Florence, additional, Mamen, Jostein, additional, Mankoff, Ken D., additional, Manney, Gloria L., additional, Marcinonienė, Izolda, additional, Marengo, Jose A., additional, Marjan, Mohammadi, additional, Martínez, Ana E., additional, Massom, Robert A., additional, Matsuzaki, Shin-Ichiro, additional, May, Linda, additional, Mayer, Michael, additional, Mazloff, Matthew R., additional, McAfee, Stephanie A., additional, McBride, C., additional, McCabe, Matthew F., additional, McClelland, James W., additional, McPhaden, Michael J., additional, Mcvicar, Tim R., additional, Mears, Carl A., additional, Meier, Walter N., additional, Mekonnen, A., additional, Menzel, Annette, additional, Merchant, Christopher J., additional, Merrifield, Mark A., additional, Meyer, Michael F., additional, Meyers, Tristan, additional, Mikolajczyk, David E., additional, Miller, John B., additional, Miralles, Diego G., additional, Misevicius, Noelia, additional, Mishonov, Alexey, additional, Mitchum, Gary T., additional, Moat, Ben I., additional, Moesinger, Leander, additional, Moise, Aurel, additional, Molina-Carpio, Jorge, additional, Monet, Ghislaine, additional, Montzka, Stephan A., additional, Moon, Twila A., additional, Moore, G. W. K., additional, Mora, Natali, additional, Morán, Johnny, additional, Morehen, Claire, additional, Morice, Colin, additional, Mostafa, A. E., additional, Mote, Thomas L., additional, Mrekaj, Ivan, additional, Mudryk, Lawrence, additional, Mühle, Jens, additional, Müller, Rolf, additional, Nance, David, additional, Nash, Eric R., additional, Nerem, R. Steven, additional, Newman, Paul A., additional, Nicolas, Julien P., additional, Nieto, Juan J., additional, Noetzli, Jeannette, additional, Noll, Ben, additional, Norton, Taylor, additional, Nyland, Kelsey E., additional, O’Keefe, John, additional, Ochwat, Naomi, additional, Oikawa, Yoshinori, additional, Okunaka, Yuka, additional, Osborn, Timothy J., additional, Overland, James E., additional, Park, Taejin, additional, Parrington, Mark, additional, Parrish, Julia K., additional, Pasch, Richard J., additional, Pascual Ramírez, Reynaldo, additional, Pellet, Cécile, additional, Pelto, Mauri S., additional, Perčec Tadić, Melita, additional, Perovich, Donald K., additional, Petersen, Guðrún Nína, additional, Petersen, Kyle, additional, Petropavlovskikh, Irina, additional, Petty, Alek, additional, Pezza, Alexandre B., additional, Pezzi, Luciano P., additional, Phillips, Coda, additional, Phoenix, Gareth K., additional, Pierson, Don, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Pires, Vanda, additional, Pitts, Michael, additional, Po-Chedley, Stephen, additional, Pogliotti, Paolo, additional, Poinar, Kristin, additional, Polvani, Lorenzo, additional, Preimesberger, Wolfgang, additional, Price, Colin, additional, Pulkkanen, Merja, additional, Purkey, Sarah G., additional, Qiu, Bo, additional, Quisbert, Kenny, additional, Quispe, Willy R., additional, Rajeevan, M., additional, Ramos, Andrea M., additional, Randel, William J., additional, Rantanen, Mika, additional, Raphael, Marilyn N., additional, Reagan, James, additional, Recalde, Cristina, additional, Reid, Phillip, additional, Rémy, Samuel, additional, Reyes Kohler, Alejandra J., additional, Ricciardulli, Lucrezia, additional, Richardson, Andrew D., additional, Ricker, Robert, additional, Robinson, David A., additional, Robjhon, M., additional, Rocha, Willy, additional, Rodell, Matthew, additional, Rodriguez Guisado, Esteban, additional, Rodriguez-Fernandez, Nemesio, additional, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., additional, Ronchail, Josyane, additional, Rosencrans, Matthew, additional, Rosenlof, Karen H., additional, Rösner, Benjamin, additional, Rösner, Henrieke, additional, Rozanov, Alexei, additional, Rozkošný, Jozef, additional, Rubek, Frans, additional, Rusanovskaya, Olga O., additional, Rutishauser, This, additional, Sabeerali, C. T., additional, Salinas, Roberto, additional, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, additional, Santee, Michelle L., additional, Santini, Marcelo, additional, Sato, Katsunari, additional, Sawaengphokhai, Parnchai, additional, Sayouri, A., additional, Scambos, Theodore, additional, Schenzinger, Verena, additional, Schimanke, Semjon, additional, Schlegel, Robert W., additional, Schmid, Claudia, additional, Schmid, Martin, additional, Schneider, Udo, additional, Schreck, Carl J., additional, Schultz, Cristina, additional, _, _, additional, Segele, Z. T., additional, Sensoy, Serhat, additional, Serbin, Shawn P., additional, Serreze, Mark C., additional, Setiawan, Amsari Mudzakir, additional, Sezaki, Fumi, additional, Sharma, Sapna, additional, Sharp, Jonathan D., additional, Sheffield, Gay, additional, Shi, Jia-Rui, additional, Shi, Lei, additional, Shiklomanov, Alexander I., additional, Shiklomanov, Nikolay I., additional, Shimaraeva, Svetlana V., additional, Shukla, R., additional, Siegel, David A., additional, Silow, Eugene A., additional, Sima, F., additional, Simmons, Adrian J., additional, Smeed, David A., additional, Smith, Adam, additional, Smith, Matthew M., additional, Smith, Sharon L., additional, Soden, Brian J., additional, Sofieva, Viktoria, additional, Souza, Everaldo, additional, Sparks, Tim H., additional, Spence-Hemmings, Jacqueline, additional, Spencer, Robert G. M., additional, Spillane, Sandra, additional, Sreejith, O. P., additional, Srivastava, A. K., additional, Stackhouse, Paul W., additional, Stammerjohn, Sharon, additional, Stauffer, Ryan, additional, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, additional, Steiner, Andrea K., additional, Stella, Jose L., additional, Stephenson, Tannecia S., additional, Stradiotti, Pietro, additional, Strahan, Susan E., additional, Streletskiy, Dmitry A., additional, Surendran, Divya E., additional, Suslova, Anya, additional, Svendby, Tove, additional, Sweet, William, additional, Takahashi, Kiyotoshi, additional, Takemura, Kazuto, additional, Tank, Suzanne E., additional, Taylor, Michael A., additional, Tedesco, Marco, additional, Thackeray, Stephen J., additional, Thiaw, W. M., additional, Thibert, Emmanuel, additional, Thoman, Richard L., additional, Thompson, Andrew F., additional, Thompson, Philip R., additional, Tian-Kunze, Xiangshan, additional, Timmermans, Mary-Louise, additional, Timofeyev, Maxim A., additional, Tobin, Skie, additional, Tømmervik, Hans, additional, Tourpali, Kleareti, additional, Trescilo, Lidia, additional, Tretiakov, Mikhail, additional, Trewin, Blair C., additional, Triñanes, Joaquin A., additional, Trotman, Adrian, additional, Truchelut, Ryan E., additional, Trusel, Luke D., additional, Tye, Mari R., additional, van der A, Ronald, additional, van der Schalie, Robin, additional, van der Schrier, Gerard, additional, Van Hemert, Caroline, additional, Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., additional, van vliet, Arnold J.H., additional, Vazife, Ahad, additional, Verburg, Piet, additional, Vernier, Jean-Paul, additional, Vimont, Isaac J., additional, Virts, Katrina, additional, Vivero, Sebastián, additional, Volkov, Denis L., additional, Vömel, Holger, additional, Vose, Russell S., additional, Walker, Donald (Skip) A., additional, Walsh, John E., additional, Wang, Bin, additional, Wang, Hui, additional, Wang, Muyin, additional, Wang, Ray H. J., additional, Wang, Xinyue, additional, Wanninkhof, Rik, additional, Warnock, Taran, additional, Weber, Mark, additional, Webster, Melinda, additional, Wehrlé, Adrian, additional, Wen, Caihong, additional, Westberry, Toby K., additional, Widlansky, Matthew J., additional, Wiese, David N., additional, Wild, Jeannette D., additional, Wille, Jonathan D., additional, Willems, An, additional, Willett, Kate M., additional, Williams, Earle, additional, Willis, J., additional, Wong, Takmeng, additional, Wood, Kimberly M., additional, Woolway, Richard Iestyn, additional, Xie, Ping-Ping, additional, Yang, Daqing, additional, Yin, Xungang, additional, Yin, Ziqi, additional, Zeng, Zhenzhong, additional, Zhang, Huai-min, additional, Zhang, Li, additional, Zhang, Peiqun, additional, Zhao, Lin, additional, Zhou, Xinjia, additional, Zhu, Zhiwei, additional, Ziemke, Jerry R., additional, Ziese, Markus, additional, Zolkos, Scott, additional, Zotta, Ruxandra M., additional, Zou, Cheng-Zhi, additional, Allen, Jessicca, additional, Camper, Amy V., additional, Haley, Bridgette O., additional, Hammer, Gregory, additional, Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, additional, Ohlmann, Laura, additional, Noguchi, Lukas, additional, Riddle, Deborah B., additional, and Veasey, Sara W., additional

Published
2023
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14. Global Oceans

Author

Johnson, G. C, primary, Lumpkin, R, additional, Atkinson, C, additional, Biló, Tiago, additional, Boyer, Tim, additional, Bringas, Francis, additional, Carter, Brendan R., additional, Cetinić, Ivona, additional, Chambers, Don P., additional, Chan, Duo, additional, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Chomiak, Leah, additional, Cronin, Meghan F., additional, Dong, Shenfu, additional, Feely, Richard A., additional, Franz, Bryan A., additional, Gao, Meng, additional, Garg, Jay, additional, Gilson, John, additional, Goni, Gustavo, additional, Hamlington, Benjamin D., additional, Hobbs, W., additional, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, additional, Huang, Boyin, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, additional, Johns, W., additional, Landschützer, Peter, additional, Lankhorst, Matthias, additional, Leuliette, Eric, additional, Locarnini, Ricardo, additional, Lyman, John M., additional, McPhaden, Michael J., additional, Merrifield, Mark A., additional, Mishonov, Alexey, additional, Mitchum, Gary T., additional, Moat, Ben I., additional, Mrekaj, Ivan, additional, Nerem, R. Steven, additional, Purkey, Sarah G., additional, Qiu, Bo, additional, Reagan, James, additional, Sato, Katsunari, additional, Schmid, Claudia, additional, Sharp, Jonathan D., additional, Siegel, David A., additional, Smeed, David A., additional, Stackhouse, Paul W., additional, Sweet, William, additional, Thompson, Philip R., additional, Triñanes, Joaquin A., additional, Volkov, Denis L., additional, Wanninkhof, Rik, additional, Wen, Caihong, additional, Westberry, Toby K., additional, Widlansky, Matthew J., additional, Willis, J., additional, Xie, Ping-Ping, additional, Yin, Xungang, additional, Zhang, Huai-min, additional, Zhang, Li, additional, Allen, Jessicca, additional, Camper, Amy V., additional, Haley, Bridgette O., additional, Hammer, Gregory, additional, Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, additional, Ohlmann, Laura, additional, Noguchi, Lukas, additional, Riddle, Deborah B., additional, and Veasey, Sara W., additional

Published
2023
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15. Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.

Author

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu, Timmermann, Axel, Luo, Jing-Jia, Mochizuki, Takashi, Kimoto, Masahide, Watanabe, Masahiro, Ishii, Masayoshi, Xie, Shang-Ping, and Jin, Fei-Fei

Abstract

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.

Published
2015

16. Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Author

Forster, Piers M., primary, Smith, Christopher J., additional, Walsh, Tristram, additional, Lamb, William F., additional, Lamboll, Robin, additional, Hauser, Mathias, additional, Ribes, Aurélien, additional, Rosen, Debbie, additional, Gillett, Nathan, additional, Palmer, Matthew D., additional, Rogelj, Joeri, additional, von Schuckmann, Karina, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Trewin, Blair, additional, Zhang, Xuebin, additional, Allen, Myles, additional, Andrew, Robbie, additional, Birt, Arlene, additional, Borger, Alex, additional, Boyer, Tim, additional, Broersma, Jiddu A., additional, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Dentener, Frank, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Gutiérrez, José M., additional, Gütschow, Johannes, additional, Hall, Bradley, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Jenkins, Stuart, additional, Lan, Xin, additional, Lee, June-Yi, additional, Morice, Colin, additional, Kadow, Christopher, additional, Kennedy, John, additional, Killick, Rachel, additional, Minx, Jan C., additional, Naik, Vaishali, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Pirani, Anna, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, additional, Szopa, Sophie, additional, Thorne, Peter, additional, Rohde, Robert, additional, Rojas Corradi, Maisa, additional, Schumacher, Dominik, additional, Vose, Russell, additional, Zickfeld, Kirsten, additional, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, additional, and Zhai, Panmao, additional

Published
2023
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17. Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: Annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and the human influence

Author

Forster, Piers Maxwell, primary, Smith, Christopher J., additional, Walsh, Tristram, additional, Lamb, William F., additional, Palmer, Matthew D., additional, von Schuckmann, Karina, additional, Trewin, Blair, additional, Allen, Myles, additional, Andrew, Robbie, additional, Birt, Arlene, additional, Borger, Alex, additional, Boyer, Tim, additional, Broersma, Jiddu A., additional, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Dentener, Frank, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Gillett, Nathan, additional, Gutiérrez, José M., additional, Gütschow, Johannes, additional, Hauser, Mathias, additional, Hall, Bradley, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Jenkins, Stuart, additional, Lamboll, Robin, additional, Lan, Xin, additional, Lee, June-Yi, additional, Morice, Colin, additional, Kadow, Christopher, additional, Kennedy, John, additional, Killick, Rachel, additional, Minx, Jan, additional, Naik, Vaishali, additional, Peters, Glen, additional, Pirani, Anna, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Ribes, Aurélien, additional, Rogelj, Joeri, additional, Rosen, Debbie, additional, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia, additional, Szopa, Sophie, additional, Thorne, Peter, additional, Rohde, Robert, additional, Rojas Corradi, Maisa, additional, Schumacher, Dominik, additional, Vose, Russell, additional, Zickfeld, Kirsten, additional, Zhang, Xuebin, additional, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, additional, and Zhai, Panmao, additional

Published
2023
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18. The Climate-System Historical Forecast Project : Providing Open Access to Seasonal Forecast Ensembles from Centers around the Globe

Author

Tompkins, Adrian M., De Zárate, María Inés Ortiz, Saurral, Ramiro I., Vera, Carolina, Saulo, Celeste, Merryfield, William J., Sigmond, Michael, Lee, Woo-Sung, Baehr, Johanna, Braun, Alain, Butler, Amy, Déqué, Michel, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Gordon, Margaret, Scaife, Adam A., Imada, Yukiko, Ishii, Masayoshi, Ose, Tomoaki, Kirtman, Ben, Kumar, Arun, Müller, Wolfgang A., Pirani, Anna, Stockdale, Tim, Rixen, Michel, and Yasuda, Tamaki

Published
2017

19. A CALL FOR NEW APPROACHES TO QUANTIFYING BIASES IN OBSERVATIONS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE

Author

Kent, Elizabeth C., Kennedy, John J., Smith, Thomas M., Hirahara, Shoji, Huang, Boyin, Kaplan, Alexey, Parker, David E., Atkinson, Christopher P., Berry, David I., Carella, Giulia, Fukuda, Yoshikazu, Ishii, Masayoshi, Jones, Philip D., Lindgren, Finn, Merchant, Christopher J., Morak-Bozzo, Simone, Rayner, Nick A., Venema, Victor, Yasui, Souichiro, and Zhang, Huai-Min

Published
2017

21. OVER 5,000 YEARS OF ENSEMBLE FUTURE CLIMATE SIMULATIONS BY 60-KM GLOBAL AND 20-KM REGIONAL ATMOSPHERIC MODELS

Author

Mizuta, Ryo, Murata, Akihiko, Ishii, Masayoshi, Shiogama, Hideo, Hibino, Kenshi, Mori, Nobuhito, Arakawa, Osamu, Imada, Yukiko, Yoshida, Kohei, Aoyagi, Toshinori, Kawase, Hiroaki, Mori, Masato, Okada, Yasuko, Shimura, Tomoya, Nagatomo, Toshiharu, Ikeda, Mikiko, Endo, Hirokazu, Nosaka, Masaya, Arai, Miki, Takahashi, Chiharu, Tanaka, Kenji, Takemi, Tetsuya, Tachikawa, Yasuto, Temur, Khujanazarov, Kamae, Youichi, Watanabe, Masahiro, Sasaki, Hidetaka, Kitoh, Akio, Takayabu, Izuru, Nakakita, Eiichi, and Kimoto, Masahide

Published
2017

24. Steric sea level variability (1993–2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Author

Storto, Andrea, Masina, Simona, Balmaseda, Magdalena, Guinehut, Stéphanie, Xue, Yan, Szekely, Tanguy, Fukumori, Ichiro, Forget, Gael, Chang, You-Soon, Good, Simon A., Köhl, Armin, Vernieres, Guillaume, Ferry, Nicolas, Peterson, K. Andrew, Behringer, David, Ishii, Masayoshi, Masuda, Shuhei, Fujii, Yosuke, Toyoda, Takahiro, Yin, Yonghong, Valdivieso, Maria, Barnier, Bernard, Boyer, Tim, Lee, Tony, Gourrion, Jérome, Wang, Ou, Heimback, Patrick, Rosati, Anthony, Kovach, Robin, Hernandez, Fabrice, Martin, Matthew J., Kamachi, Masafumi, Kuragano, Tsurane, Mogensen, Kristian, Alves, Oscar, Haines, Keith, and Wang, Xiaochun

Published
2017
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34. WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A Prediction for 2021–25

Author

Hermanson, Leon, primary, Smith, Doug, additional, Seabrook, Melissa, additional, Bilbao, Roberto, additional, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, additional, Tourigny, Etienne, additional, Lapin, Vladimir, additional, Kharin, Viatcheslav V., additional, Merryfield, William J., additional, Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel, additional, Athanasiadis, Panos, additional, Nicoli, Dario, additional, Gualdi, Silvio, additional, Dunstone, Nick, additional, Eade, Rosie, additional, Scaife, Adam, additional, Collier, Mark, additional, O’Kane, Terence, additional, Kitsios, Vassili, additional, Sandery, Paul, additional, Pankatz, Klaus, additional, Früh, Barbara, additional, Pohlmann, Holger, additional, Müller, Wolfgang, additional, Kataoka, Takahito, additional, Tatebe, Hiroaki, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Imada, Yukiko, additional, Kruschke, Tim, additional, Koenigk, Torben, additional, Karami, Mehdi Pasha, additional, Yang, Shuting, additional, Tian, Tian, additional, Zhang, Liping, additional, Delworth, Tom, additional, Yang, Xiaosong, additional, Zeng, Fanrong, additional, Wang, Yiguo, additional, Counillon, François, additional, Keenlyside, Noel, additional, Bethke, Ingo, additional, Lean, Judith, additional, Luterbacher, Jürg, additional, Kolli, Rupa Kumar, additional, and Kumar, Arun, additional

Published
2022
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35. Effect of Early vs Delayed Surgical Treatment on Motor Recovery in Incomplete Cervical Spinal Cord Injury With Preexisting Cervical Stenosis

Author

Chikuda, Hirotaka, Koyama, Yurie, Matsubayashi, Yoshitaka, Ogata, Toru, Ohtsu, Hiroshi, Sugita, Shurei, Sumitani, Masahiko, Kadono, Yuho, Miura, Toshiki, Tanaka, Sakae, Akiyama, Toru, Ando, Kei, Anno, Masato, Azuma, Seiichi, Endo, Kenji, Endo, Toru, Fujiyoshi, Takayuki, Furuya, Takeo, Hayashi, Hiroyuki, Higashikawa, Akiro, Hiyama, Akihiko, Horii, Chiaki, Iimoto, Seiji, Iizuka, Yoichi, Ikuma, Hisanori, Imagama, Shiro, Inokuchi, Koichi, Inoue, Hirokazu, Inoue, Tomoo, Ishii, Keisuke, Ishii, Masayoshi, Ito, Takui, Itoi, Akira, Iwamoto, Kohei, Iwasaki, Motoki, Kaito, Takashi, Kato, Tsuyoshi, Katoh, Hiroyuki, Kawaguchi, Yoshiharu, Kawano, Osamu, Kimura, Atsushi, Kobayashi, Kazuyoshi, Koda, Masao, Komatsu, Miki, Kumagai, Gentaro, Maeda, Takeshi, Makino, Takahiro, Mannoji, Chikato, Masuda, Kazuhiro, Masuda, Keisuke, Matsumoto, Koji, Matsumoto, Morio, Matsunaga, Shunji, Matsuyama, Yukihiro, Mieda, Tokue, Miyoshi, Kota, Mochida, Joji, Moridaira, Hiroshi, Motegi, Hiroyuki, Nakagawa, Yukihiro, Nohara, Yutaka, Oae, Kazunori, Ogawa, Shinji, Okazaki, Rentaro, Okuda, Akinori, Onishi, Eijiro, Ono, Atsushi, Oshima, Masashi, Oshita, Yusuke, Saita, Kazuo, Sasao, Yutaka, Sato, Kimiaki, Sawakami, Kimihiko, Seichi, Atsushi, Seki, Shoji, Shigematsu, Hideki, Suda, Kota, Takagi, Yasutaka, Takahashi, Masahito, Takahashi, Ryosuke, Takasawa, Eiji, Takenaka, Shota, Takeshita, Katsushi, Takeshita, Yujiro, Tokioka, Takamitsu, Tokuhashi, Yasuaki, Tonosu, Juichi, Uei, Hiroshi, Wada, Kanichiro, Watanabe, Masahiko, Yahata, Tadashi, Yamada, Kei, Yasuda, Taketoshi, Yasui, Keigo, and Yoshii, Toshitaka

Subjects
Online Only, Neurology, Research, Original Investigation
Abstract

Key Points Question Does early surgical treatment yield better motor recovery than delayed surgical treatment for patients with preexisting cervical canal stenosis sustaining acute traumatic spinal cord injury? Findings In this randomized clinical trial that included 72 patients with motor-incomplete cervical spinal cord injury, there was no statistically significant difference between groups in mean improvement in American Spinal Injury Association motor score, total score in the spinal cord independence measure, or patients’ ability to walk at 1 year. Early surgical treatment was associated with higher motor scores than delayed surgical treatment in the first 6 months. Meaning These findings suggest that among patients with motor-incomplete cervical spinal cord injury, early surgical treatment did not significantly improve motor recovery at 1 year compared with delayed surgical treatment but showed accelerated recovery., This randomized clinical trial assesses motor recovery outcomes in early vs delayed surgical treatment for patients with acute traumatic incomplete cervical spinal cord injury associated with preexisting canal stenosis., Importance The optimal management for acute traumatic cervical spinal cord injury (SCI) is unknown. Objective To determine whether early surgical decompression results in better motor recovery than delayed surgical treatment in patients with acute traumatic incomplete cervical SCI associated with preexisting canal stenosis but without bone injury. Design, Setting, and Participants This multicenter randomized clinical trial was conducted in 43 tertiary referral centers in Japan from December 2011 through November 2019. Patients aged 20 to 79 years with motor-incomplete cervical SCI with preexisting canal stenosis (American Spinal Injury Association [ASIA] Impairment Scale C; without fracture or dislocation) were included. Data were analyzed from September to November 2020. Interventions Patients were randomized to undergo surgical treatment within 24 hours after admission or delayed surgical treatment after at least 2 weeks of conservative treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary end points were improvement in the mean ASIA motor score, total score of the spinal cord independence measure, and the proportion of patients able to walk independently at 1 year after injury. Results Among 72 randomized patients, 70 patients (mean [SD] age, 65.1 [9.4] years; age range, 41-79 years; 5 [7%] women and 65 [93%] men) were included in the full analysis population (37 patients assigned to early surgical treatment and 33 patients assigned to delayed surgical treatment). Of these, 56 patients (80%) had data available for at least 1 primary outcome at 1 year. There was no significant difference among primary end points for the early surgical treatment group compared with the delayed surgical treatment group (mean [SD] change in ASIA motor score, 53.7 [14.7] vs 48.5 [19.1]; difference, 5.2; 95% CI, −4.2 to 14.5; P = .27; mean [SD] SCIM total score, 77.9 [22.7] vs 71.3 [27.3]; P = .34; able to walk independently, 21 of 30 patients [70.0%] vs 16 of 26 patients [61.5%]; P = .51). A mixed-design analysis of variance revealed a significant difference in the mean change in ASIA motor scores between the groups (F1,49 = 4.80; P = .03). The early surgical treatment group, compared with the delayed surgical treatment group, had greater motor scores than the delayed surgical treatment group at 2 weeks (mean [SD] score, 34.2 [18.8] vs 18.9 [20.9]), 3 months (mean [SD] score, 49.1 [15.1] vs 37.2 [20.9]), and 6 months (mean [SD] score, 51.5 [13.9] vs 41.3 [23.4]) after injury. Adverse events were common in both groups (eg, worsening of paralysis, 6 patients vs 6 patients; death, 3 patients vs 3 patients). Conclusions and Relevance These findings suggest that among patients with cervical SCI, early surgical treatment produced similar motor regain at 1 year after injury as delayed surgical treatment but showed accelerated recovery within the first 6 months. These exploratory results suggest that early surgical treatment leads to faster neurological recovery, which requires further validation. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01485458; umin.ac.jp/ctr Identifier: UMIN000006780

Published
2021

36. Quantifying Spread in Spatiotemporal Changes of Upper-Ocean Heat Content Estimates: An Internationally Coordinated Comparison

Author

Savita, Abhishek, primary, Domingues, Catia M., additional, Boyer, Tim, additional, Gouretski, Viktor, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Johnson, Gregory C., additional, Lyman, John M., additional, Willis, Josh K., additional, Marsland, Simon J., additional, Hobbs, William, additional, Church, John A., additional, Monselesan, Didier P., additional, Dobrohotoff, Peter, additional, Cowley, Rebecca, additional, and Wijffels, Susan E., additional

Published
2022
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42. Global Oceans

Author

Johnson, Gregory C., primary, Lumpkin, Rick, additional, Alin, Simone R., additional, Amaya, Dillon J., additional, Baringer, Molly O., additional, Boyer, Tim, additional, Brandt, Peter, additional, Carter, Brendan R., additional, Cetinić, Ivona, additional, Chambers, Don P., additional, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Collins, Andrew U., additional, Cosca, Cathy, additional, Domingues, Ricardo, additional, Dong, Shenfu, additional, Feely, Richard A., additional, Frajka-Williams, Eleanor, additional, Franz, Bryan A., additional, Gilson, John, additional, Goni, Gustavo, additional, Hamlington, Benjamin D., additional, Herrford, Josefine, additional, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, additional, Huang, Boyin, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, additional, Kennedy, John J., additional, Kersalé, Marion, additional, Killick, Rachel E., additional, Landschützer, Peter, additional, Lankhorst, Matthias, additional, Leuliette, Eric, additional, Locarnini, Ricardo, additional, Lyman, John M., additional, Marra, John J., additional, Meinen, Christopher S., additional, Merrifield, Mark A., additional, Mitchum, Gary T., additional, Moat, Ben I., additional, Nerem, R. Steven, additional, Perez, Renellys C., additional, Purkey, Sarah G., additional, Reagan, James, additional, Sanchez-Franks, Alejandra, additional, Scannell, Hillary A., additional, Schmid, Claudia, additional, Scott, Joel P., additional, Siegel, David A., additional, Smeed, David A., additional, Stackhouse, Paul W., additional, Sweet, William, additional, Thompson, Philip R., additional, Triñanes, Joaquin A., additional, Volkov, Denis L., additional, Wanninkhof, Rik, additional, Weller, Robert A., additional, Wen, Caihong, additional, Westberry, Toby K., additional, Widlansky, Matthew J., additional, Wilber, Anne C., additional, Yu, Lisan, additional, and Zhang, Huai-Min, additional

Published
2021
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43. Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

Author

Smith, Doug M., Scaife, Adam A., Boer, George J., Caian, Mihaela, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Guemas, Virginie, Hawkins, Ed, Hazeleger, Wilco, Hermanson, Leon, Ho, Chun Kit, Ishii, Masayoshi, Kharin, Viatcheslav, Kimoto, Masahide, Kirtman, Ben, Lean, Judith, Matei, Daniela, Merryfield, William J., Müller, Wolfgang A., Pohlmann, Holger, Rosati, Anthony, Wouters, Bert, and Wyser, Klaus

Published
2013
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48. Robust warming of the global upper ocean

Author

Lyman, John M., Good, Simon A., Gouretski, Viktor V., Ishii, Masayoshi, Johnson, Gregory C., Palmer, Matthew D., Smith, Doug M., and Willis, Josh K.

Subjects
Global warming -- Research, Ocean temperature -- Research, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract

A large (~[10.sup.23] J) multi-decadal globally averaged warming signal in the upper 300 m of the world's oceans was reported roughly a decade ago (1) and is attributed to warming associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (2,3). The majority of the Earth's total energy uptake during recent decades has occurred in the upper ocean (3), but the underlying uncertainties in ocean warming are unclear, limiting our ability to assess closure of sea-level budgets (4-7), the global radiation imbalance (8) and climate models (5). For example, several teams have recently produced different multi-year estimates of the annually averaged global integral of upper-ocean heat content anomalies (hereafter OHCA curves) or, equivalently, the thermosteric sea-level rise (5,9-16). Patterns of inter-annual variability, in particular, differ among methods. Here we examine several sources of uncertainty that contribute to differences among OHCA curves from 1993 to 2008, focusing on the difficulties of correcting biases in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data. XBT data constitute the majority of the in situ measurements of upper-ocean heat content from 1967 to 2002, and we find that the uncertainty due to choice of XBT bias correction dominates among-method variability in OHCA curves during our 1993-2008 study period. Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, a composite of several OHCA curves using different XBT bias corrections still yields a statistically significant linear warming trend for 1993-2008 of 0.64 Wm [m.sup.-2] (calculated for the Earth's entire surface area), with a 90-per-cent confidence interval of 0.53-0.75W [m.sup.2]., A host of choices must be made when computing OHCA curves. These choices include how to quality-control the data, which mapping technique to use, which baseline mean climatology to use, [...]

Published
2010
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