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Additional file 2: Table S1. Development assistance for health by target region, 2012–2016 (2016 USD in million, %): (A) bilateral (loans), (B) bilateral (grants), (C) multilateral, (D) total. WHO: World Health Organization; UNAIDS: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS; UNFPA: United Nations Population Fund; UNICEF: United Nations Children’s Fund; UNDP: United Nations Development Programme; AfDB: African Development Bank; AsDB: Asian Development Bank; IADB: Inter-American Development Bank; Global Fund: The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; Gavi: Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance; JICA: Japan International Cooperation Agency. Other UN agencies include Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), World Food Programme (WFP), etc. NGOs include International Planned Parenthood Federation, etc. Others include Global Environment Facility (GEF), etc. Table S2. Development assistance for health by channel, 2012–2016 (2016 USD in million, %). WHO: World Health Organization; UNAIDS: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS; UNFPA: United Nations Population Fund; UNICEF: United Nations Children's Fund; UNDP: United Nations Development Programme; AfDB: African Development Bank; AsDB: Asian Development Bank; IADB: Inter-American Development Bank; Global Fund: The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; Gavi: Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance; JICA: Japan International Cooperation Agency. Other UN agencies include Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), World Food Programme (WFP), etc. NGOs include International Planned Parenthood Federation, etc. Others include Global Environment Facility (GEF), etc. Table S3. Developing assistance for health channeled through multilateral agencies, 2012–2016 (2016 USD in million, %). WHO: World Health Organization; UNAIDS: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS; UNFPA: United Nations Population Fund; UNICEF: United Nations Children’s Fund; UNDP: United Nations Development Programme; AfDB: African Development Bank; AsDB: Asian Development Bank; IADB: Inter-American Development Bank; Global Fund: The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; Gavi: Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance; JICA: Japan International Cooperation Agency. Other UN agencies include Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), World Food Programme (WFP), etc. Table S4. Development assistance for health by health focus area, 2012–2016 (2016 USD in million, %): (A) bilateral (loans), (B) bilateral (grants), (C) multilateral, (D) total. STD: sexually transmitted disease. CRS purpose code: Basic health care = 12220; Basic health infrastructure = 12230; Basic nutrition = 12240; Health education = 12261; Health personnel development = 12281; Reproductive health care = 13020; Family planning = 13030; Infectious disease control = 12250; Malaria control = 12262; Tuberculosis control = 12263; STD control including HIV/AIDS = 13040; Health policy and administrative management = 12110; Medical education/training = 12181; Medical research = 12182; Medical services = 12191; Population policy and administrative management = 13010; Personnel development for population and reproductive health = 13081. Table S5. Development assistance for health for primary healthcare and health system strengthening, 2012–2016 (2016 USD in million, %): (A) bilateral (loans), (B) bilateral (grants), (C) multilateral, (D) total. PHC: public health care; HSS: health system strengthening. PHC definition #1 = Basic health care and infrastructure (CRS purpose codes: 12220, 12230, 12240, 12261, 12281); PHC definition #2 = Reproductive health care and family planning (13020, 13030); PHC definition #3 = Infectious disease control, including malaria and tuberculosis (12250, 12262, 12263); PHC definition #4 = Sexually transmitted disease (STD) control including HIV/AIDS (13040); Broader PHC definition = Definition #1 + #2 + #3 + #4; HSS definition #1 = Health policy, administration & management (12110); HSS definition #2 = Medical services, training & research (12181, 12182, 12191); HSS definition #3 = Population policy & administration (13010, 13081); Broader HSS definition = Definition #1 + #2 + #3.

Additional file 1: Figure S1. Observed and projected DALY rate (per 100,000 population) in the 20–49 age group for cardiovascular diseases for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) male, (B) female, and (C) total population. The black lines represent the observed values, and the pink lines and the grey areas before 2016 represent the smoothed lines and their projection intervals. Figure S2. Observed and projected DALY rates (per 100,000 population) in the 50–69 age group for cardiovascular diseases for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) male, (B) female, and (C) total population. The black lines represent the observed values, and the pink lines and the grey areas before 2016 represent the smoothed lines and their projection intervals. Figure S3. Observed and projected DALY rates (per 100,000 population) in the ≥70 age group for cardiovascular diseases for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) male, (B) female, and (C) total population. The black lines represent the observed values, and the pink lines and the grey areas before 2016 represent the smoothed lines and their projection intervals. Figure S4. Observed and projected DALY rates (per 100,000 population) for cancer in the 20–49 age group for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) male, (B) female, and (C) total population. The black lines represent the observed values, and the pink lines and the grey areas before 2016 represent the smoothed lines and their projection intervals. Figure S5. Observed and projected DALY rates (per 100,000 population) in the 50–69 age group for cancer for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) male, (B) female, and (C) total population. The black lines represent the observed values, and the pink lines and the grey areas before 2016 represent the smoothed lines and their projection intervals. Figure S6. Observed and projected DALY rates (per 100,000 population) in the ≥70 age group for cancer for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) male, (B) female, and (C) total population. The black lines represent the observed values, and the pink lines and the grey areas before 2016 represent the smoothed lines and their projection intervals. Figure S7. Observed and projected DALY rates (per 100,000 population) in the 20–49 age group for diabetes and kidney diseases for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) male, (B) female, and (C) total population. The black lines represent the observed values, and the pink lines and the grey areas before 2016 represent the smoothed lines and their projection intervals. Figure S8. Observed and projected DALY rates (per 100,000 population) in the 50–69 age group for diabetes and kidney diseases for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) male, (B) female, and (C) total population. The black lines represent the observed values, and the pink lines and the grey areas before 2016 represent the smoothed lines and their projection intervals. Figure S9. Observed and projected DALY rates (per 100,000 population) in the ≥70 age group for diabetes and kidney diseases for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) male, (B) female, and (C) total population. The black lines represent the observed values, and the pink lines and the grey areas before 2016 represent the smoothed lines and their projection intervals. Table S1. Estimated sets of parameters in ARIMA (p, d, q) and Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). Table S2. Predicted DALY rates (95% prediction intervals) for cardiovascular disease by age groups, sex (male, female), and total population, 2017–2040. Table S3. Predicted DALY rates (95% prediction intervals) for cancer by age groups, sex (male, female), and total population, 2017–2040. Table S4. Predicted DALY rates (95% prediction intervals) for diabetes and kidney diseases by age groups, sex (male, female), and total population, 2017–2040.

Additional file 2: Supplementary Table 1. Development assistance for health by target region, 2012–2016 (2016 USD in million, %): (A) bilateral (loans), (B) bilateral (grants), (C) multilateral, (D) total. Supplementary Table 2. Development assistance for health by channel, 2012–2016 (2016 USD in million, %). Supplementary Table 3. Developing assistance for health channeled through multilateral agencies, 2012–2016 (2016 USD in million, %). Supplementary Table 4. Development assistance for health by health focus area, 2012–2016 (2016 USD in million, %): (A) bilateral (loans), (B) bilateral (grants), (C) multilateral, (D) total. Supplementary Table 5. Development assistance for health for primary healthcare and health system strengthening, 2012–2016 (2016 USD in million, %): (A) bilateral (loans), (B) bilateral (grants), (C) multilateral, (D) total.

Additional file 1: Supplementary Figure 1. Observed and predicted DALY rate (per 100,000 population) in the 20–49 age group for cardiovascular diseases for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) men, (B) women, and (C) both sexes combined. 1: best scenario; 2: moderate scenario; 3: worse scenario. It is important to note that the y-axis scales are different for each panel in order to make the differences between scenarios easier to understand. Supplementary Figure 2. Observed and predicted DALY rate (per 100,000 population) in the 50–69 age group for cardiovascular diseases for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) men, (B) women, and (C) both sexes combined. 1: best scenario; 2: moderate scenario; 3: worse scenario. It is important to note that the y-axis scales are different for each panel in order to make the differences between scenarios easier to understand. Supplementary Figure 3. Observed and predicted DALY rate (per 100,000 population) in the ≥70 age group for cardiovascular diseases for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) men, (B) women, and (C) both sexes combined. 1: best scenario; 2: moderate scenario; 3: worse scenario. It is important to note that the y-axis scales are different for each panel in order to make the differences between scenarios easier to understand. Supplementary Figure 4. Observed and predicted DALY rate (per 100,000 population) for chronic kidney diseases in the 20–49 age group for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) men, (B) women, and (C) both sexes combined. 1: best scenario; 2: moderate scenario; 3: worse scenario. It is important to note that the y-axis scales are different for each panel in order to make the differences between scenarios easier to understand. Supplementary Figure 5. Observed and predicted DALY rate (per 100,000 population) in the 50–69 age group for chronic kidney diseases for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) men, (B) women, and (C) both sexes combined. 1: best scenario; 2: moderate scenario; 3: worse scenario. It is important to note that the y-axis scales are different for each panel in order to make the differences between scenarios easier to understand. Supplementary Figure 6. Observed and predicted DALY rate (per 100,000 population) in the ≥70 age group for chronic kidney diseases for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) men, (B) women, and (C) both sexes combined. 1: best scenario; 2: moderate scenario; 3: worse scenario. It is important to note that the y-axis scales are different for each panel in order to make the differences between scenarios easier to understand. Supplementary Figure 7. Observed and predicted DALY rate (per 100,000 population) in the 20–49 age group for stomach cancer for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) men, (B) women, and (C) both sexes combined. 1: best scenario; 2: moderate scenario; 3: worse scenario. It is important to note that the y-axis scales are different for each panel in order to make the differences between scenarios easier to understand. Supplementary Figure 8. Observed and predicted DALY rate (per 100,000 population) in the 50–69 age group for stomach cancer for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) men, (B) women, and (C) both sexes combined. 1: best scenario; 2: moderate scenario; 3: worse scenario. It is important to note that the y-axis scales are different for each panel in order to make the differences between scenarios easier to understand. Supplementary Figure 9. Observed and predicted DALY rate (per 100,000 population) in the ≥70 age group for stomach cancer for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, 1990–2040: (A) men, (B) women, and (C) both sexes combined. 1: best scenario; 2: moderate scenario; 3: worse scenario. It is important to note that the y-axis scales are different for each panel in order to make the differences between scenarios easier to understand. Supplementary Table 1. Predicted values of average salt intake (grams per day) for reference forecast and three alternative scenarios, by age groups for men (A), women (B), and both sexes combined (C); and for all ages by sex (D), 2017–2040. 1: best scenario; 2: moderate scenario; 3: worse scenario. Supplementary Table 1. Predicted values of covariates by age groups for men (A), women (B), and both sexes combined (C); and for all ages by sex (D), 2017–2040. SDI: socio-demographic index. Supplementary Table 2. Estimated sets of parameters in ARIMA (p, d, q) and Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). Supplementary Table 3. Projected DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases (1), chronic kidney diseases (2), and stomach cancer (3) by age groups for men (A), women (B), and both sexes combined (C); and for all ages by sex (D), 2017–2040. 1: best scenario; 2: moderate scenario; 3: worse scenario. Supplementary Table 4. Predicted DALY rates (95% prediction intervals) for cardiovascular diseases (1), chronic kidney diseases (2), and stomach cancer (3) by age groups for men (A), women (B), and both sexes combined (C); and for all ages by sex (D), 2017–2040.

Additional file 1: Figure S1. Developing assistance for health channeled through multilateral agencies, 2012–2016. WHO: World Health Organization; UNAIDS: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS; UNFPA: United Nations Population Fund; UNICEF: United Nations Children’s Fund; UNDP: United Nations Development Programme; AfDB: African Development Bank; AsDB: Asian Development Bank; IADB: Inter-American Development Bank; Global Fund: The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; Gavi: Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance.