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Purpose: to conduct a statistical analysis of the relationship between a number of natural factors and snow evaporation, melt water surface runoff during the snowmelt period on a slope with ordinary chernozem in Rostov region for various agricultural backgrounds (winter wheat and fallow) for the period 2008–2022. Materials and methods. Methodological recommendations for accounting for surface runoff were used. Statistical data analysis was performed using the MathCAD and Statistica packages. The significance of regression equations was determined using the Fisher criterion. Results. The use of statistical analysis to process the results of multifactorial studies made it possible to identify the influence of individual natural and anthropogenic factors on erosion processes and their interaction. It has been determined that the value of surface runoff on winter wheat crops depends most of all on the amount of precipitation (correlation coefficient r = 0.72...0.80), more with moldboard tillage, and on stubble plowing – on water reserves in snow (r = 0.40...0.45), also more with moldboard tillage. Conclusions. The equations of the relationship between factorial and resultant indicators of various types are presented, allowing to increase the accuracy of forecasting the surface melt water runoff value in crop rotations depending on the influencing factors with different methods of primary soil tillage, within the limits of the obtained experimental data use, which makes it possible to use methods for regulating negative erosion processes timely. The obtained regularities, reflecting the influence of soil cultivation methods and agricultural background on the value of water balance elements during snowmelt, can be used to predict the melt water surface runoff value and application of anti-erosion agrotechnical measures.

Purpose: to determine the influence of soil cultivation methods on the value of soil water storage, water balance and water consumption deficit of spring barley on an erosion-hazardous slope on ordinary chernozems. Materials and methods. During the research, the methodological approaches by S. A. Vorobyev, A. N. Kostyakov, S. I. Kharchenko, A. N. Postnikov were used. The experimental design provides for three options of soil cultivation: moldboard plowing, non-moldboard (chiseling) and combined (slotted) plowing. Results. As a result of the research, the advantage of chisel primary cultivation was revealed in terms of moisture reserves accumulation in snow: in the fall-plow it allowed accumulating on average 16.6 % more water than with moldboard tillage. Research has shown that the main flow component of water balance is the total water consumption of spring barley, which varied during the growing season depending on the phase of crop growth and development and on the method of soil cultivation; differences in the productive moisture reserves with the advantage of non-moldboard methods of soil cultivation were noted. The greatest differences were observed on the date of barley sowing; at this time, the excess in water storage in the meter layer was 9.9 % with combined tillage and it was 10.6 % with chiseling, relative to the same indicator with moldboard treatment. Conclusions. It was found that the intensity of the decrease in water storage rose, starting from the earing phase, especially during moldboard cultivation. In the longest period from sowing to booting (97–110 days), an average of approximately 50 % of the total moisture is consumed, from the booting phase to the earing and from the earing phase to milky-wax ripeness by 20 %, and in the last period from milky-wax ripeness to the complete ripeness of corn is only 10 % moisture. In general, during the growing season, non-moldboard cultivation allowed reducing the water consumption deficit of spring barley to 4.7–5.4 % compared to the control, which is very significant under the conditions of a moisture deficit amounting to 276 mm during this period.