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20 results on '"JÉRÔME-SPEZIARI, VÉRONIQUE"'

5. Recap: Forecasting the 2012 Election

Author

Norpoth, Helmut, Bednarczuk, Michael, Abramowitz, Alan I., Erikson, Robert S., Wlezien, Christopher, Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Tien, Charles, Campbell, James E., Hibbs, Douglas A., Holbrook, Thomas M., Lockerbie, Brad, Cuzán, Alfred G., Montgomery, Jacob M., Hollenbach, Florian M., Ward, Michael D., Klarner, Carl E., Jerôme, Bruno, Jerôme-Speziari, Véronique, Berry, Michael J., and Bickers, Kenneth N.

Published
2013

12. Forecasting the 2021 German Election: A Win for Armin Laschet?

Author

Jérôme, Bruno, Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.

Abstract

The article presents the discussion on seat-share percentages explained directly by economic and political determinants. Topics include single-equation vote function not foreseeing the narrow Green Party victory over the Free Democratic Party (FDP); and performance involving economic and political issues for which the government reasonably held accountable.

Published
2022
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20. The 2004 French Regional Elections: Politico-Economic Factors of a NationalizedLocal Ballot

Author

Jérôme, Bruno and Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique

Abstract

In this paper, using a Political Economy model (pooled time series), we show that voting behavior at regional elections in France is dominated by national factors. At the 2004 regional elections, the contest was marked by the government's economic and political performance, the new electoral rules, the first time the Left had been in opposition at the time of a regional election and the mid-term nature of the election. These elements are helpful in building an explanatory model that allows us to forecast the next election as well. On the basis of this model, we discuss how to make — paradoxically — regional elections in France more local.

Published
2005
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