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Soil moisture plays a key role in soil nutrient and carbon cycling; plant productivity; and energy, water, and greenhouse gas exchanges between the land and the atmosphere. The knowledge on drivers of spatiotemporal soil moisture dynamics in subarctic landscapes is limited. In this study, we used the Spatial Forest Hydrology (SpaFHy) model, in situ soil moisture data, and Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR)-based soil moisture estimates to explore spatiotemporal controls of soil moisture in a subarctic headwater catchment in northwestern Finland. The role of groundwater dynamics and lateral flow in soil moisture was studied through three groundwater model conceptualizations: (i) omission of groundwater storage and lateral flow, (ii) conceptual TOPMODEL approach based on topographic wetness index, and (iii) explicit 2D lateral groundwater flow. The model simulations were compared against continuous point soil moisture measurements, distributed manual measurements, and novel SAR-based soil moisture estimates available at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Based on model scenarios and model–data comparisons, we assessed when and where the lateral groundwater flow shapes shallow soil moisture and under which conditions soil moisture variability is driven more by local ecohydrology, i.e., the balance of infiltration, drainage, and evapotranspiration. The choice of groundwater flow model was shown to have a strong impact on modeled soil moisture dynamics within the catchment. All model conceptualizations captured the observed soil moisture dynamics in the upland forests, but accounting for the lateral groundwater flow was necessary to reproduce the saturated conditions common in the peatlands and occasionally in lowland forest grid cells. We further highlight the potential of integrating multi-scale observations with land surface and hydrological models. The results have implications for ecohydrological and biogeochemical processes, as well as for modeling hydrology and Earth system feedbacks in subarctic and boreal environments.

Boreal and sub-alpine forests host seasonal snow for multiple months per year; however, snow regimes in these environments are rapidly changing due to rising temperatures and forest disturbances. Accurate prediction of forest snow dynamics, relevant for ecohydrology, biogeochemistry, cryosphere, and climate sciences, requires process-based models. While snow schemes that track the microstructure of individual snow layers have been proposed for avalanche research, so far, tree-scale processes resolving canopy representations only exist in a few snow-hydrological models. A framework that enables layer- and microstructure-resolving forest snow simulations at the meter scale is lacking to date. To fill this research gap, this study introduces the forest snow modeling framework FSMCRO, which combines two detailed, state-of-the art model components: the canopy representation from the Flexible Snow Model (FSM2) and the snowpack representation of the Crocus ensemble model system (ESCROC). We apply FSMCRO to discontinuous forests at boreal and sub-alpine sites to showcase how tree-scale forest snow processes affect layer-scale snowpack properties. Simulations at contrasting locations reveal marked differences in stratigraphy throughout the winter. These arise due to different prevailing processes at under-canopy versus gap locations and due to variability in snow metamorphism dictated by a spatially variable snowpack energy balance. Ensemble simulations allow us to assess the robustness and uncertainties of simulated stratigraphy. Spatially explicit simulations unravel the dependencies of snowpack properties on canopy structure at a previously unfeasible level of detail. Our findings thus demonstrate how hyper-resolution forest snow simulations can complement observational approaches to improve our understanding of forest snow dynamics, highlighting the potential of such models as research tools in interdisciplinary studies.

The snowpack has a major influence on the land surface energy budget. Accurate simulation of the snowpack energy and radiation budget is challenging due to, e.g., effects of vegetation and topography, as well as limitations in the theoretical understanding of turbulent transfer in the stable boundary layer. Studies that evaluate snow, hydrology and land surface models against detailed observations of all surface energy balance components at high latitudes are scarce. In this study, we compared different configurations of the SURFEX land surface model against surface energy flux, snow depth and soil temperature observations from four eddy-covariance stations in Finland. The sites cover two different climate and snow conditions, representing the southern and northern subarctic zones, as well as the contrasting forest and peatland ecosystems typical for the boreal landscape. We tested different turbulent flux parameterizations implemented in the Crocus snowpack model. In addition, we examined common alternative approaches to conceptualize soil and vegetation, and we assessed their performance in simulating surface energy fluxes, snow conditions and soil thermal regime. Our results show that a stability correction function that increases the turbulent exchange under stable atmospheric conditions is imperative to simulate sensible heat fluxes over the peatland snowpacks and that realistic peat soil texture (soil organic content) parameterization greatly improves the soil temperature simulations. For accurate simulations of surface energy fluxes, snow and soil conditions in forests, an explicit vegetation representation is necessary. Moreover, we demonstrate the high sensitivity of surface fluxes to a poorly documented parameter involved in snow cover fraction computation. Although we focused on models within the SURFEX platform, the results have broader implications for choosing suitable turbulent flux parameterization and model structures depending on the potential use cases for high-latitude land surface modeling.

Forecasting the height of new snow (HN) is crucial for avalanche hazard forecasting, road viability, ski resort management and tourism attractiveness. Météo-France operates the PEARP-S2M probabilistic forecasting system, including 35 members of the PEARP Numerical Weather Prediction system, where the SAFRAN downscaling tool refines the elevation resolution and the Crocus snowpack model represents the main physical processes in the snowpack. It provides better HN forecasts than direct NWP diagnostics but exhibits significant biases and underdispersion. We applied a statistical post-processing to these ensemble forecasts, based on non-homogeneous regression with a censored shifted Gamma distribution. Observations come from manual measurements of 24 h HN in the French Alps and Pyrenees. The calibration is tested at the station scale and the massif scale (i.e. aggregating different stations over areas of 1000 km2). Compared to the raw forecasts, similar improvements are obtained for both spatial scales. Therefore, the post-processing can be applied at any point of the massifs. Two training datasets are tested: (1) a 22-year homogeneous reforecast for which the NWP model resolution and physical options are identical to the operational system but without the same initial perturbations; (2) 3-year real-time forecasts with a heterogeneous model configuration but the same perturbation methods. The impact of the training dataset depends on lead time and on the evaluation criteria. The long-term reforecast improves the reliability of severe snowfall but leads to overdispersion due to the discrepancy in real-time perturbations. Thus, the development of reliable automatic forecasting products of HN needs long reforecasts as homogeneous as possible with the operational systems.