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Salinity changes in the Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta and Pajarales Complex coastal lagoon system in northern Colombia, and their relation with local rainfall, tributaries' streamflow and ENSO, are analyzed. Being markedly low (!1321 mm yr 1 ), local rainfall is assumed to be in- significant for mean salinity changes. The non-linear model proposed explains the variations in salinity and tributaries' streamflow with ENSO intensity, measured as Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) anomaly. Streamflows are directly and salinity inversely correlated with SOI. Model analysis allowed to discriminate between natural and hydraulic management situations and also how the occurrence of different environmental scenarios reflected on salinity changes. The link between global climate variability and local conditions becomes clearer and worthy to be brought into account in management and decision making processes dealing with continental as well as other marine and coastal aquatic environ- ments in the Caribbean region. 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.