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Eucalyptus plantations around the world have been largely used by the paper industry. Optimizing the management of resources is a common practice in this highly competitive industry and new forest growth models may help to understand the impact of climate change on the decisions of the optimization processes. Current optimized management plans use empirical equations to predict future forest stands growth, and it is currently impractical to replace these empirical equations with physiological models due to data input requirements. In this paper, we present a different approach, by first carrying out a preliminary assessment with the process-based physiological model 3PG to evaluate the growth of Eucalyptus stands under climate change predictions. The information supplied by 3PG was then injected as a modifier in the projected yield that feeds the management plan optimizer allowing the interpretation of climate change impacts on the management plan. Modelling results show that although a general increase of rain with climate change is predicted, the distribution throughout the year will not favor the tree growth. On the contrary, rain will increase when it is less needed (summer) and decrease when it is most needed (winter), decreasing forest stand productivity between 3 and 5%, depending on the region and soil. Evaluation of the current optimized plan that kept constant the relation between wood price/cellulose ton shows a variation in different strategic management options and an overall increase of costs in owned areas between 2 and 4%, and a decrease of cumulated net present value, initially at 15% with later stabilization at 6–8%. This is a basic comparison to observe climate change effects; nevertheless, it provides insights into how the entire decision-making process may change due to a reduction in biomass production under future climate scenarios. This work demonstrates the use of physiological models to extract information that could be merged with existing and already implemented empirical models. The methodology may also be considered a preliminary alternative to the complete replacement of empirical models by physiological models. Our approach allows some insight into forest responses to different future climate conditions, something which empirical models are not designed for.

Food security, climate change mitigation, and land use challenges are interlinked and need to be considered simultaneously. One possible solution is sustainable intensification, which is the practice of increasing food production per area of land whilst also reducing the environmental impacts associated with this. Agroforestry has been stated to be a practice that meets this definition. In this study, a new methodology is presented to assess the potential of different management options as sustainable intensification practices. The methodology is based on comparing the carbon emissions associated with the production of food and the carbon sequestered for that same activity for a particular quantity of food produced over a specific area and over a specific time. The resulting indicator, the carbon balance is the difference between the greenhouse gasses emitted (considered as negative values) and carbon sequestered (positive values) estimated in Mg CO 2eq per Mg of food produced on one hectare of land for one year. The carbon balance quantifies the global warming potential associated with sustainable intensification by integrating a process-based model with life cycle analysis and is able to estimate above-and below-ground biomass and soil carbon content. This methodology is tested in Portugal for wheat production under crop monoculture and agroforestry systems. The results show agroforestry to be a suitable practice for sustainable intensification compared to a crop monoculture as it just slightly decreased wheat yields whilst providing a positive carbon balance from year 50 onwards of approximately 1 Mg of CO 2eq sequestered per Mg of wheat produced. © SISEF. We acknowledge the financial support provided by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) through the scholarship SFRH/BD/52691/2014 and PEST (UID/AGR/00239/2013) and the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme under Grant Agreement No. 613520 (Project AGFORWARD).

Boswellia papyrifera woodland provides considerable economic, ecological and socio-cultural benefits in the drylands of Ethiopia. However, its populations are in rapid decline due to human pressure and environmental degradation. As a consequence, the species is now considered being endangered, demanding an urgent conservation intervention to sustain its existence. This study was carried out in the Abergele district, northern Ethiopia, with objectives to characterize the current population structure of B. papyrifera and prioritize its potential conservation intervention alternatives using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) modelling techniques. The woody species related data were collected from 33 sample plots randomly established in the study area. Data related to the potential intervention alternatives and their evaluating criteria were collected from experts, personal experiences and intensive literature reviews, and then validated using stakeholders’ focus group discussion. Four candidate alternatives were then considered for the AHP: 1) free grazing with no tapping resting period (FGNTR), 2) free grazing with a rotational tapping (FGRT), 3) area exclosure with medium tapping resting period (AEMTR), and 4) area exclosure with long tapping resting period (AELTR). The results showed that the population structure of B. papyrifera is unstable and is characterized by low density (266 trees ha−1), absence of regeneration and saplings (DBH, AHP model; Area exclosure; Conservation alternatives; Frankincense tree; Free grazing; Regeneration; Stakeholders; Over tapping; Agricultural science; Agronomy; Environmental science; Ecology.