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Bovine tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, has serious consequences for Britain's cattle industry. European badgers (Meles meles) can transmit infection to cattle, and for many years the British government culled badgers in a series of attempts to reduce cattle infections. We investigated the impact of badger culling on the spatial distribution of M. bovis infection in badger and cattle populations in replicated areas in England. M. bovis infection was significantly clustered within badger populations, but clustering was reduced when culls were repeated across wide areas. A significant spatial association between M. bovis infections in badgers and cattle herds likewise declined across successive culls. These patterns are consistent with evidence that badgers are less territorial and range more widely in culled areas, allowing transmission to occur over greater distances. Prior to culling, M. bovis infections were clustered within cattle populations. Where badger culling was localised, and in unculled areas just outside widespread culling areas, cattle infections became less spatially clustered as badger culling was repeated. This is consistent with expanded badger ranging observed in these areas. In contrast, clustering of infection in cattle persisted over time on lands where badgers were repeatedly culled over wide areas. While this lack of a temporal trend must be interpreted with caution, it might reflect persistent infection within, and continued transmission between, cattle herds in areas where transmission from badgers to cattle had been reduced by badger culling. Continued spatial association of infections in cattle and badgers in such areas might partly reflect transmission from cattle. Synthesis and applications: Our findings confirm that badger culling can prompt spatial spread of M. bovis infection, a phenomenon likely to undermine the utility of this approach as a disease control measure. Possible evidence of transmission from cattle, both to other cattle and to badgers, suggests that improved cattle controls might yield multiple benefits for TB management.

Culling is often considered as a tool for controlling wildlife diseases that can also infect people or livestock. Culling European badgers Meles meles can cause both positive and negative effects on the incidence of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in cattle. One factor likely to influence the outcome of different badger culling strategies for cattle TB is the reduction in badger population density achieved. However, this reduction is difficult to measure because badgers, being nocturnal and fossorial, are difficult to count. Here, we use indices of badger abundance to measure the population impacts of two culling strategies tested in Britain. The densities of badger setts and latrines recorded before culling were correlated with the densities of badgers captured on initial culls, suggesting that both were indices of actual badger abundance. Widespread 'proactive' culling was associated with a 73% reduction in the density of badger latrines, a 69% reduction in the density of active burrows and a 73% reduction in the density of road killed badgers. This population reduction was achieved by a coordinated effort entailing widespread and repeated trapping over several years. However, this strategy caused only modest reductions in cattle TB incidence in culled areas and elevated incidence in neighbouring unculled areas. Localized 'reactive' culling caused a 26% reduction in latrine density, a 32% reduction in active burrow density and a 10% reduction in the density of road killed badgers, but apparently increased the incidence of cattle TB. These results indicate that the relationship between badger population reduction and TB transmission to cattle is strongly non linear, probably because culling prompts changes in badger behaviour that influence transmission rates. These findings raise serious questions about the capacity of badger culling to contribute to the control of cattle TB in Britain.

Human and livestock diseases can be difficult to control where infection persists in wildlife populations. In Britain, European badgers (Meles meles) are implicated in transmittingMycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB), to cattle. Badger culling has therefore been a component of British TB control policy for many years. However, large-scale field trials have recently shown that badger culling has the capacity to cause both increases and decreases in cattle TB incidence. Here, we show that repeated badger culling in the same area is associated with increasing prevalence ofM. bovisinfection in badgers, especially where landscape features allow badgers from neighboring land to recolonize culled areas. This impact on prevalence in badgers might reduce the beneficial effects of culling on cattle TB incidence, and could contribute to the detrimental effects that have been observed. Additionally, we show that suspension of cattle TB controls during a nationwide epidemic of foot and mouth disease, which substantially delayed removal of TB-affected cattle, was associated with a widespread increase in the prevalence ofM. bovisinfection in badgers. This pattern suggests that infection may be transmitted from cattle to badgers, as well as vice versa. Clearly, disease control measures aimed at either host species may have unintended consequences for transmission, both within and between species. Our findings highlight the need for policymakers to consider multiple transmission routes when managing multihost pathogens.

1. The incidence of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in British cattle has risen markedly over the last two decades. Failure to control the disease in cattle has been linked to the persistence of a reservoir of infection in European badgers Meles meles, a nationally protected species. Although badger culling has formed a component of British TB control policy for many years, a recent large-scale randomized field experiment found that TB incidence in cattle was no lower in areas subject to localized badger culling than in nearby areas where no experimental culls occurred. Indeed, analyses indicated that cattle incidence was higher in culled areas. 2. One hypothesis advanced to explain this pattern is that localized culling disrupted badgers' territorial behaviour, potentially increasing the rate of contact between cattle and infected badgers. This study evaluated this hypothesis by investigating badger activity and spatial organization in 13 study areas subjected to different levels of culling. Badger home ranges were mapped by feeding colour-marked baits at badger dens and measuring the geographical area in which colour-marked faeces were retrieved. 3. Badger home ranges were consistently larger in culling areas. Moreover, in areas not subjected to culling, home range sizes increased with proximity to the culling area boundary. Patterns of overlap between home ranges were also influenced by culling. 4. Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrates that culling badgers profoundly alters their spatial organization as well as their population density. These changes have the potential to influence contact rates between cattle and badgers, both where culls occur and on adjoining land. These results may help to explain why localized badger culling appears to have failed to control cattle TB, and should be taken into account in determining what role, if any, badger culling should play in future control strategies.

1. Control of zoonotic disease is difficult to achieve when populations of multiple hosts, particularly wildlife, become persistently infected. Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is one such disease: its causative agent, Mycobacterium bovis, infects cattle, humans and multiple wildlife species including European badgers Meles meles. 2. In Britain, from 1974 to 1998 various strategies for the control of cattle TB involved culling badgers in the immediate vicinity of TB-affected herds. However, patterns of association between cattle and badgers had not been investigated at a local scale. 3. Using data from the Randomized Badger Culling Trial, an ongoing large-scale study of TB dynamics and control, we investigated local geographical associations between M. bovis infection in badgers and cattle. 4. Mycobacterium bovis infections were locally clustered within both badger and cattle populations. 5. We show, for the first time, that M. bovis infections in badgers and cattle are spatially associated at a scale of 1-2 km. Badgers and cattle infected with the same strain type of M. bovis are particularly closely correlated. These observational data support the hypothesis that transmission occurs between the two host species; however, they cannot be used to evaluate the relative importance of badger-to-cattle and cattle-to-badger transmission. 6. Synthesis and applications. The close associations between M. bovis infections in cattle and badgers suggest that localized badger culling could reasonably be expected to reduce the risks of cattle TB infection; however, experimental culls have found no such beneficial effects over the time-scale on which they were tested. This demonstrates the difficulty of predicting the outcome of management interventions, and reinforces the need for well-designed empirical assessments of future control strategies.

SIR, — We have read with interest the criticisms of the randomised badger culling trial (rbct) made by [Gallagher and others (2007)][1]; we consider them to have no scientific basis. While the authors contrast the rbct findings with the results of ‘previous trials in this country’, in fact no

Summary Objectives We present the results of a 2005 case–control study of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) breakdowns in English and Welsh herds. The herd management, farming practices, and environmental factors of 401 matched pairs of case and control herds were investigated to provide a picture of herd-level risk factors in areas of varying bTB incidence. Methods A global conditional logistic regression model, with region-specific variants, was used to compare case herds that had experienced a confirmed bTB breakdown to contemporaneous control herds matched on region, herd type, herd size, and parish testing interval. Results Contacts with cattle from contiguous herds and sourcing cattle from herds with a recent history of bTB were associated with an increased risk in both the global and regional analyses. Operating a farm over several premises, providing cattle feed inside the housing, and the presence of badgers were also identified as significantly associated with an increased bTB risk. Conclusions Steps taken to minimize cattle contacts with neighboring herds and altering trading practices could have the potential to reduce the size of the bTB epidemic. In principle, limiting the interactions between cattle and wildlife may also be useful; however this study did not highlight any specific measures to implement.

Economic studies on disease in farm livestock have focused largely on cost/benefit analyses of control programs or gross estimates of the costs due to particular diseases. Neither offers an adequate basis to guide economic decisions. This paper develops a framework with a more rigorous underpinning in economic concepts and principles. First, the total economic cost of a disease is explained in terms of two distinct components: (i) output losses following disease occurrence; (ii) expenditures made to treat disease or prevent its occurrence. We then develop the general relationship between these two components, calling it the ‘loss-expenditure frontier’, and use it to define the economically optimal level of disease costs. This shows that the relevant measures of the economic cost of disease are not the total cost figures usually estimated. The paper explains how, in principle, the loss-expenditure frontier can provide the appropriate information for decisions on disease control, and demonstrates this using survey data on subclinical mastitis in the UK dairy national herd.

1. In most social animals, the prevalence of directly transmitted pathogens increases in larger groups and at higher population densities. Such patterns are predicted by models of Mycobacterium bovis infection in European badgers (Meles meles). 2. We investigated the relationship between badger abundance and M. bovis prevalence, using data on 2696 adult badgers in 10 populations sampled at the start of the Randomized Badger Culling Trial. 3. M. bovis prevalence was consistently higher at low badger densities and in small social groups. M. bovis prevalence was also higher among badgers whose genetic profiles suggested that they had immigrated into their assigned social groups. 4. The association between high M. bovis prevalence and small badger group size appeared not to have been caused by previous small-scale culling in study areas, which had been suspended, on average, 5 years before the start of the current study. 5. The observed pattern of prevalence might occur through badgers in smaller groups interacting more frequently with members of neighbouring groups; detailed behavioural data are needed to test this hypothesis. Likewise, longitudinal data are needed to determine whether the size of infected groups might be suppressed by disease-related mortality. 6. Although M. bovis prevalence was lower at high population densities, the absolute number of infected badgers was higher. However, this does not necessarily mean that the risk of M. bovis transmission to cattle is highest at high badger densities, since transmission risk depends on badger behaviour as well as on badger density.

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is a zoonotic disease that can have serious consequences for cattle farming and, potentially, for public health. In Britain, failure to control bovine TB has been linked to persistent infection of European badger (Meles meles) populations. However, culling of badgers in the vicinity of recent TB outbreaks in cattle has failed to reduce the overall incidence of cattle TB. Using data from a large-scale study conducted in 1998-2005, we show that badgers collected on such localized culls had elevated prevalence of Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine TB, suggesting that infections in cattle and badgers were indeed associated. Moreover, there was a high degree of similarity in the M. bovis strain types isolated from cattle and associated badgers. This similarity between strain types appeared to be unaffected by time lags between the detection of infection in cattle and culling of badgers, or by the presence of purchased cattle that might have acquired infection elsewhere. However, localized culling appeared to prompt an increase in the prevalence of M. bovis infection in badgers, probably by disrupting ranging and territorial behavior and hence increasing intraspecific transmission rates. This elevated prevalence among badgers could offset the benefits, for cattle, of reduced badger densities and may help to explain the failure of localized culling to reduce cattle TB incidence.

Animal welfare concerns have gained greater prominence over recent decades as livestock production techniques have become more intensive. Welfare issues are now considered among the principal problems that agriculture must confront in the future. The central theme of this paper is that, notwithstanding the objective assessments of the animal scientist, animal welfare is primarily a subjective matter of human perceptions; further, because people's preferences determine action, in practice it will be treated as a subset of human welfare. The inherent conflict between animal and human interest is captured in the relationship between welfare and livestock productivity, highlighting the fact that higher welfare standards in modern farming would inevitably raise the price of food. In the light of this, the paper considers both the legal imposition of welfare codes and an approach which allows food consumers to determine the ‘socially appropriate’ standards via conventional market processes. In the last analysis neither animal science nor economics can do more than cast light on what is fundamentally a socio-political issue.

Summary Background Bovine tuberculosis (TB) has re-emerged as a major problem for British cattle farmers. Failure to control the infection has been linked to transmission from European badgers; badger culling has therefore formed a component of British TB control policy since 1973. Objectives and design To investigate the impact of repeated widespread badger culling on cattle TB, the Randomised Badger Culling Trial compared TB incidence in cattle herds in and around ten culling areas (each 100km 2 ) with those in and around ten matched unculled areas. Results Overall, cattle TB incidence was 23.2% lower (95% confidence interval (CI) 12.4–32.7% lower) inside culled areas, but 24.5% (95% CI 0.6% lower–56.0% higher) higher on land ≤2km outside, relative to matched unculled areas. Inside the culling area boundary the beneficial effect of culling tended to increase with distance from the boundary ( p =0.085) and to increase on successive annual culls ( p =0.064). In adjoining areas, the detrimental effect tended to diminish on successive annual culls ( p =0.17). On the basis of such linear trends, the estimated net effect per annum for culling areas similar to those in the trial was detrimental between the first and second culls, but beneficial after the fourth and later culls, for the range of analyses performed. Conclusions Careful consideration is needed to determine in what settings systematic repeated culling might be reliably predicted to be beneficial, and in these cases whether the benefits of such culling warrant the costs involved.

Pathogens that are transmitted between wildlife, livestock and humans present major challenges for the protection of human and animal health, the economic sustainability of agriculture, and the conservation of wildlife. Mycobacterium bovis, the aetiological agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB), is one such pathogen. The incidence of TB in cattle has increased substantially in parts of Great Britain in the past two decades, adversely affecting the livelihoods of cattle farmers and potentially increasing the risks of human exposure. The control of bovine TB in Great Britain is complicated by the involvement of wildlife, particularly badgers (Meles meles), which appear to sustain endemic infection and can transmit TB to cattle. Between 1975 and 1997 over 20,000 badgers were culled as part of British TB control policy, generating conflict between conservation and farming interest groups2. Here we present results from a large-scale field trial3–5 that indicate that localized badger culling not only fails to control but also seems to increase TB incidence in cattle.

The present paper presents a non-technical overview of contemporary developments in food supply, as seen from the standpoint of economic adjustment. The historical concerns over availability and price of food have now passed in the UK, and agriculture is no longer dominantly driven by the supply-side forces of new farming technology and the stimulus of support policies. As a now demand-driven sector of the economy, it is the developing diversity of consumer food preferences that will increasingly determine the adjustment path of agricultural production. Those demands seek distinctive elements of food value, many of which are entirely created and delivered by industries beyond the farm gate. However, many of the quality characteristics of food that consumers increasingly seek are associated explicitly with what takes place on farms and how crop and livestock husbandry is conducted. In responding to these demand preferences many farmers will shift from being merely raw material producers to becoming genuine producers of food, or capturing more of the final value of the products consumed. As a result a dual structure within farming will develop, with a ‘quality agriculture’ becoming increasingly differentiated from a ‘commodity agriculture’ as two distinct strategies for farm business survival.

The threat imposed by its virulence brings a presumption that Aujeszky's disease (AD) must be controlled because potential losses are high. Viewed as an economic problem, the decision on whether and how to control AD hinges on comparing the costs of doing so with the benefits (in terms of reduced production losses) to be gained. Four strategies are considered: (a) doing nothing, (b) suppressing and maintaining the disease at low prevalence levels by vaccination, (c) suppressing to low levels and then eradicating by culling remaining positive animals and (d) eradicating in one step by means of a test-and-slaughter policy. The net economic merits of each strategy are examined using data derived from specific vaccination studies established in Germany and the Netherlands. A computer model is developed to estimate disease costs under different technical, epidemiological and economic assumptions, allowing the economically optimal strategies to be explored. In general no single strategy can be recommended as the 'best' for dealing with AD, since it depends on a host of factors relating to pig density, prevalence levels, production system, trade relations, etc. As usual, economic realities complicate the quest for operational simplicity in disease control. However, for the regions of high pig density studied the most economic AD control strategy is to lower herd prevalence by intensive vaccination before completing eradication by test-and-removal of remaining positive animals.

The introduction of new technology into agriculture is a central feature of development schemes, but is regularly criticised because of its distributive effects. Technology change is unavoidably biased, however, and cannot easily be used to serve specific distribution objectives. Ex post studies do not necessarily guide the appropriate choice of technology as they rarely offer causal explanations. Predicting the consequences of innovation is hampered by the narrowness of established economic models and the conceptual indefiniteness of technology as a variable in those models. In the absence of a wider system framework, technology for development is selected according to more general guides. These emphasise either the primacy of output objectives or advocate technology forms presumed appropriate to distribution objectives. Neither adequately substitutes for a broad framework to guide the choice of technology as an instrument in development.