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Neonatal apneas and hypopneas present a serious risk for healthy infant development. Treating these adverse events requires frequent manual stimulation by skilled personnel, which can lead to alarm fatigue. This study aims to develop and validate an interpretable model that can predict apneas and hypopneas. Automatically predicting these adverse events before they occur would enable the use of methods for automatic intervention. We propose a neural additive model to predict individual occurrences of neonatal apnea and hypopnea and apply it to a physiological dataset from infants with Robin sequence at risk of upper airway obstruction. The dataset will be made publicly available together with this study. Our proposed model allows the prediction of individual apneas and hypopneas, achieving an average AuROC of 0.80 when discriminating segments of polysomnography recordings starting 15 seconds before the onset of apneas and hypopneas from control segments. Its additive nature makes the model inherently interpretable, which allowed insights into how important a given signal modality is for prediction and which patterns in the signal are discriminative. For our problem of predicting apneas and hypopneas in infants with Robin sequence, prior irregularities in breathing-related modalities as well as decreases in SpO2 levels were especially discriminative. Our prediction model presents a step towards an automatic prediction of neonatal apneas and hypopneas in infants at risk for upper airway obstruction. Together with the publicly released dataset, it has the potential to facilitate the development and application of methods for automatic intervention in clinical practice.

Neural oscillations are ubiquitously observed in many brain areas. One proposed functional role of these oscillations is that they serve as an internal clock, or 'frame of reference'. Information can be encoded by the timing of neural activity relative to the phase of such oscillations. In line with this hypothesis, there have been multiple empirical observations of such phase codes in the brain. Here we ask: What kind of neural dynamics support phase coding of information with neural oscillations? We tackled this question by analyzing recurrent neural networks (RNNs) that were trained on a working memory task. The networks were given access to an external reference oscillation and tasked to produce an oscillation, such that the phase difference between the reference and output oscillation maintains the identity of transient stimuli. We found that networks converged to stable oscillatory dynamics. Reverse engineering these networks revealed that each phase-coded memory corresponds to a separate limit cycle attractor. We characterized how the stability of the attractor dynamics depends on both reference oscillation amplitude and frequency, properties that can be experimentally observed. To understand the connectivity structures that underlie these dynamics, we showed that trained networks can be described as two phase-coupled oscillators. Using this insight, we condensed our trained networks to a reduced model consisting of two functional modules: One that generates an oscillation and one that implements a coupling function between the internal oscillation and external reference. In summary, by reverse engineering the dynamics and connectivity of trained RNNs, we propose a mechanism by which neural networks can harness reference oscillations for working memory. Specifically, we propose that a phase-coding network generates autonomous oscillations which it couples to an external reference oscillation in a multi-stable fashion.

Recent advances in connectomics research enable the acquisition of increasing amounts of data about the connectivity patterns of neurons. How can we use this wealth of data to efficiently derive and test hypotheses about the principles underlying these patterns? A common approach is to simulate neuronal networks using a hypothesized wiring rule in a generative model and to compare the resulting synthetic data with empirical data. However, most wiring rules have at least some free parameters, and identifying parameters that reproduce empirical data can be challenging as it often requires manual parameter tuning. Here, we propose to use simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) to address this challenge. Rather than optimizing a fixed wiring rule to fit the empirical data, SBI considers many parametrizations of a rule and performs Bayesian inference to identify the parameters that are compatible with the data. It uses simulated data from multiple candidate wiring rule parameters and relies on machine learning methods to estimate a probability distribution (the 'posterior distribution over parameters conditioned on the data') that characterizes all data-compatible parameters. We demonstrate how to apply SBI in computational connectomics by inferring the parameters of wiring rules in an in silico model of the rat barrel cortex, given in vivo connectivity measurements. SBI identifies a wide range of wiring rule parameters that reproduce the measurements. We show how access to the posterior distribution over all data-compatible parameters allows us to analyze their relationship, revealing biologically plausible parameter interactions and enabling experimentally testable predictions. We further show how SBI can be applied to wiring rules at different spatial scales to quantitatively rule out invalid wiring hypotheses. Our approach is applicable to a wide range of generative models used in connectomics, providing a quantitative and efficient way to constrain model parameters with empirical connectivity data.

Inferring parameters of computational models that capture experimental data is a central task in cognitive neuroscience. Bayesian statistical inference methods usually require the ability to evaluate the likelihood of the model—however, for many models of interest in cognitive neuroscience, the associated likelihoods cannot be computed efficiently. Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a solution to this problem by only requiring access to simulations produced by the model. Previously, Fengler et al. introduced likelihood approximation networks (LANs, Fengler et al., 2021) which make it possible to apply SBI to models of decision-making but require billions of simulations for training. Here, we provide a new SBI method that is substantially more simulation efficient. Our approach, mixed neural likelihood estimation (MNLE), trains neural density estimators on model simulations to emulate the simulator and is designed to capture both the continuous (e.g., reaction times) and discrete (choices) data of decision-making models. The likelihoods of the emulator can then be used to perform Bayesian parameter inference on experimental data using standard approximate inference methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. We demonstrate MNLE on two variants of the drift-diffusion model and show that it is substantially more efficient than LANs: MNLE achieves similar likelihood accuracy with six orders of magnitude fewer training simulations and is significantly more accurate than LANs when both are trained with the same budget. Our approach enables researchers to perform SBI on custom-tailored models of decision-making, leading to fast iteration of model design for scientific discovery.

The hippocampal dentate gyrus is an important relay conveying sensory information from the entorhinal cortex to the hippocampus proper. During exploration, the dentate gyrus has been proposed to act as a pattern separator. However, the dentate gyrus also shows structured activity during immobility and sleep. The properties of these activity patterns at cellular resolution, and their role in hippocampal-dependent memory processes have remained unclear. Using dual-color in vivo two-photon Ca2+ imaging, we show that in immobile mice dentate granule cells generate sparse, synchronized activity patterns associated with entorhinal cortex activation. These population events are structured and modified by changes in the environment; and they incorporate place- and speed cells. Importantly, they are more similar than expected by chance to population patterns evoked during self-motion. Using optogenetic inhibition, we show that granule cell activity is not only required during exploration, but also during immobility in order to form dentate gyrus-dependent spatial memories.

Mechanistic modeling in neuroscience aims to explain observed phenomena in terms of underlying causes. However, determining which model parameters agree with complex and stochastic neural data presents a significant challenge. We address this challenge with a machine learning tool which uses deep neural density estimators—trained using model simulations—to carry out Bayesian inference and retrieve the full space of parameters compatible with raw data or selected data features. Our method is scalable in parameters and data features and can rapidly analyze new data after initial training. We demonstrate the power and flexibility of our approach on receptive fields, ion channels, and Hodgkin–Huxley models. We also characterize the space of circuit configurations giving rise to rhythmic activity in the crustacean stomatogastric ganglion, and use these results to derive hypotheses for underlying compensation mechanisms. Our approach will help close the gap between data-driven and theory-driven models of neural dynamics.

In recent years, two-photon calcium imaging has become a standard tool to probe the function of neural circuits and to study computations in neuronal populations. However, the acquired signal is only an indirect measurement of neural activity due to the comparatively slow dynamics of fluorescent calcium indicators. Different algorithms for estimating spike rates from noisy calcium measurements have been proposed in the past, but it is an open question how far performance can be improved. Here, we report the results of the spikefinder challenge, launched to catalyze the development of new spike rate inference algorithms through crowd-sourcing. We present ten of the submitted algorithms which show improved performance compared to previously evaluated methods. Interestingly, the top-performing algorithms are based on a wide range of principles from deep neural networks to generative models, yet provide highly correlated estimates of the neural activity. The competition shows that benchmark challenges can drive algorithmic developments in neuroscience.

The rise of large-scale recordings of neuronal activity has fueled the hope to gain new insights into the collective activity of neural ensembles. How can one link the statistics of neural population activity to underlying principles and theories? One attempt to interpret such data builds upon analogies to the behaviour of collective systems in statistical physics. Divergence of the specific heat-a measure of population statistics derived from thermodynamics-has been used to suggest that neural populations are optimized to operate at a "critical point". However, these findings have been challenged by theoretical studies which have shown that common inputs can lead to diverging specific heat. Here, we connect "signatures of criticality", and in particular the divergence of specific heat, back to statistics of neural population activity commonly studied in neural coding: firing rates and pairwise correlations. We show that the specific heat diverges whenever the average correlation strength does not depend on population size. This is necessarily true when data with correlations is randomly subsampled during the analysis process, irrespective of the detailed structure or origin of correlations. We also show how the characteristic shape of specific heat capacity curves depends on firing rates and correlations, using both analytically tractable models and numerical simulations of a canonical feed-forward population model. To analyze these simulations, we develop efficient methods for characterizing large-scale neural population activity with maximum entropy models. We find that, consistent with experimental findings, increases in firing rates and correlation directly lead to more pronounced signatures. Thus, previous reports of thermodynamical criticality in neural populations based on the analysis of specific heat can be explained by average firing rates and correlations, and are not indicative of an optimized coding strategy. We conclude that a reliable interpretation of statistical tests for theories of neural coding is possible only in reference to relevant ground-truth models.

Reconstructing stimuli from the spike-trains of neurons is an important approach for understanding the neural code. One of the difficulties associated with this task is that signals which are varying continuously in time are encoded into sequences of discrete events or spikes. An important problem is to determine how much information about the continuously varying stimulus can be extracted from the time-points at which spikes were observed, especially if these time-points are subject to some sort of randomness. For the special case of spike trains generated by leaky integrate and fire neurons, noise can be introduced by allowing variations in the threshold every time a spike is released. A simple decoding algorithm previously derived for the noiseless case can be extended to the stochastic case, but turns out to be biased. Here, we review a solution to this problem, by presenting a simple yet efficient algorithm which greatly reduces the bias, and therefore leads to better decoding performance in the stochastic case.

As multi-electrode and imaging technology begin to provide us with simultaneous recordings of large neuronal populations, new methods for modeling such data must also be developed. Here, we present a model for the type of data commonly recorded in early sensory pathways: responses to repeated trials of a sensory stimulus in which each neuron has it own time-varying spike rate (as described by its PSTH) and the dependencies between cells are characterized by both signal and noise correlations. This model is an extension of previous attempts to model population spike trains designed to control only the total correlation between cells. In our model, the response of each cell is represented as a binary vector given by the dichotomized sum of a deterministic ‘signal’ that is repeated on each trial and a Gaussian random ‘noise’ that is different on each trial. This model allows the simulation of population spike trains with PSTHs, trial-to-trial variability, and pairwise correlations that match those measured experimentally. Furthermore, the model also allows the noise correlations in the spike trains to be manipulated independently of the signal correlations and single cell properties. To demonstrate the utility of the model, we use it to simulate and manipulate experimental responses from the mammalian auditory and visual systems. We also present a general form of the model in which both the signal and noise are Gaussian random processes, allowing the mean spike rate, trial-to-trial variability, and pairwise signal and noise correlations to be specified independently. Together, these methods for modeling spike trains comprise a potentially powerful set of tools for both theorists and experimentalists studying population responses in sensory systems.

Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) are commonly used statistical methods for modelling the relationship between neural population activity and presented stimuli. When the dimension of the parameter space is large, strong regularization has to be used in order to fit GLMs to datasets of realistic size without overfitting. By imposing properly chosen priors over parameters, Bayesian inference provides an effective and principled approach for achieving regularization. Here we show how the posterior distribution over model parameters of GLMs can be approximated by a Gaussian using the Expectation Propagation algorithm. In this way, we obtain an estimate of the posterior mean and posterior covariance, allowing us to calculate Bayesian confidence intervals that characterize the uncertainty about the optimal solution. From the posterior we also obtain a different point estimate, namely the posterior mean as opposed to the commonly used maximum a posteriori estimate. We systematically compare the different inference techniques on simulated as well as on multi-electrode recordings of retinal ganglion cells, and explore the effects of the chosen prior and the performance measure used. We find that good performance can be achieved by choosing an Laplace prior together with the posterior mean estimate.

The timing of action potentials in spiking neurons depends on the temporal dynamics of their inputs and contains information about temporal fluctuations in the stimulus. Leaky integrate-and-fire neurons constitute a popular class of encoding models, in which spike times depend directly on the temporal structure of the inputs. However, optimal decoding rules for these models have only been studied explicitly in the noiseless case. Here, we study decoding rules for probabilistic inference of a continuous stimulus from the spike times of a population of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with threshold noise. We derive three algorithms for approximating the posterior distribution over stimuli as a function of the observed spike trains. In addition to a reconstruction of the stimulus we thus obtain an estimate of the uncertainty as well. Furthermore, we derive a `spike-by-spike' online decoding scheme that recursively updates the posterior with the arrival of each new spike. We use these decoding rules to reconstruct time-varying stimuli represented by a Gaussian process from spike trains of single neurons as well as neural populations.