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Summary: Background: Diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of childhood illness and death globally, and Shigella is a major aetiological contributor for which a vaccine might soon be available. The primary objective of this study was to model the spatiotemporal variation in paediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods: Individual participant data for Shigella positivity in stool samples were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies of children aged 59 months or younger. Covariates included household-level and participant-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum. Findings: 20 studies from 23 countries (including locations in Central America and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia) contributed 66 563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Probability of Shigella infection exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhoea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Compared with unimproved sanitation, improved sanitation decreased the odds of Shigella infection by 19% (odds ratio [OR]=0·81 [95% CI 0·76–0·86]) and open defecation decreased them by 18% (OR=0·82 [0·76–0·88]). Interpretation: The distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors, such as temperature, than previously recognised. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, although hotspots also occur in South America and Central America, the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta, and the island of New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritisation of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns. Funding: NASA, National Institutes of Health–The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Summary: Background: Optimum management of childhood diarrhoea in low-resource settings has been hampered by insufficient data on aetiology, burden, and associated clinical characteristics. We used quantitative diagnostic methods to reassess and refine estimates of diarrhoea aetiology from the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) cohort study. Methods: We re-analysed stool specimens from the multisite MAL-ED cohort study of children aged 0–2 years done at eight locations (Dhaka, Bangladesh; Vellore, India; Bhaktapur, Nepal; Naushero Feroze, Pakistan; Venda, South Africa; Haydom, Tanzania; Fortaleza, Brazil; and Loreto, Peru), which included active surveillance for diarrhoea and routine non-diarrhoeal stool collection. We used quantitative PCR to test for 29 enteropathogens, calculated population-level pathogen-specific attributable burdens, derived stringent quantitative cutoffs to identify aetiology for individual episodes, and created aetiology prediction scores using clinical characteristics. Findings: We analysed 6625 diarrhoeal and 30 968 non-diarrhoeal surveillance stools from 1715 children. Overall, 64·9% of diarrhoea episodes (95% CI 62·6–71·2) could be attributed to an aetiology by quantitative PCR compared with 32·8% (30·8–38·7) using the original study microbiology. Viral diarrhoea (36·4% of overall incidence, 95% CI 33·6–39·5) was more common than bacterial (25·0%, 23·4–28·4) and parasitic diarrhoea (3·5%, 3·0–5·2). Ten pathogens accounted for 95·7% of attributable diarrhoea: Shigella (26·1 attributable episodes per 100 child-years, 95% CI 23·8–29·9), sapovirus (22·8, 18·9–27·5), rotavirus (20·7, 18·8–23·0), adenovirus 40/41 (19·0, 16·8–23·0), enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (18·8, 16·5–23·8), norovirus (15·4, 13·5–20·1), astrovirus (15·0, 12·0–19·5), Campylobacter jejuni or C coli (12·1, 8·5–17·2), Cryptosporidium (5·8, 4·3–8·3), and typical enteropathogenic E coli (5·4, 2·8–9·3). 86·2% of the attributable incidence for Shigella was non-dysenteric. A prediction score for shigellosis was more accurate (sensitivity 50·4% [95% CI 46·7–54·1], specificity 84·0% [83·0–84·9]) than current guidelines, which recommend treatment only of bloody diarrhoea to cover Shigella (sensitivity 14·5% [95% CI 12·1–17·3], specificity 96·5% [96·0–97·0]). Interpretation: Quantitative molecular diagnostics improved estimates of pathogen-specific burdens of childhood diarrhoea in the community setting. Viral causes predominated, including a substantial burden of sapovirus; however, Shigella had the highest overall burden with a high incidence in the second year of life. These data could improve the management of diarrhoea in these low-resource settings. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Summary: Background: Enteropathogen infections in early childhood not only cause diarrhoea but contribute to poor growth. We used molecular diagnostics to assess whether particular enteropathogens were associated with linear growth across seven low-resource settings. Methods: We used quantitative PCR to detect 29 enteropathogens in diarrhoeal and non-diarrhoeal stools collected from children in the first 2 years of life obtained during the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) multisite cohort study. Length was measured monthly. We estimated associations between aetiology-specific diarrhoea and subclinical enteropathogen infection and quantity and attained length in 3 month intervals, at age 2 and 5 years, and used a longitudinal model to account for temporality and time-dependent confounding. Findings: Among 1469 children who completed 2 year follow-up, 35 622 stool samples were tested and yielded valid results. Diarrhoeal episodes attributed to bacteria and parasites, but not viruses, were associated with small decreases in length after 3 months and at age 2 years. Substantial decrements in length at 2 years were associated with subclinical, non-diarrhoeal, infection with Shigella (length-for-age Z score [LAZ] reduction −0·14, 95% CI −0·27 to −0·01), enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (−0·21, −0·37 to −0·05), Campylobacter (−0·17, −0·32 to −0·01), and Giardia (−0·17, −0·30 to −0·05). Norovirus, Cryptosporidium, typical enteropathogenic E coli, and Enterocytozoon bieneusi were also associated with small decrements in LAZ. Shigella and E bieneusi were associated with the largest decreases in LAZ per log increase in quantity per g of stool (−0·13 LAZ, 95% CI −0·22 to −0·03 for Shigella; −0·14, −0·26 to −0·02 for E bieneusi). Based on these models, interventions that successfully decrease exposure to Shigella, enteroaggregative E coli, Campylobacter, and Giardia could increase mean length of children by 0·12–0·37 LAZ (0·4–1·2 cm) at the MAL-ED sites. Interpretation: Subclinical infection and quantity of pathogens, particularly Shigella, enteroaggregative E coli, Campylobacter, and Giardia, had a substantial negative association with linear growth, which was sustained during the first 2 years of life, and in some cases, to 5 years. Successfully reducing exposure to certain pathogens might reduce global stunting. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Summary: Background: The protozoan Cryptosporidium is a leading cause of diarrhoea morbidity and mortality in children younger than 5 years. However, the true global burden of Cryptosporidium infection in children younger than 5 years might have been underestimated in previous quantifications because it only took account of the acute effects of diarrhoea. We aimed to demonstrate whether there is a causal relation between Cryptosporidium and childhood growth and, if so, to quantify the associated additional burden. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2016 was a systematic and scientific effort to quantify the morbidity and mortality associated with more than 300 causes of death and disability, including diarrhoea caused by Cryptosporidium infection. We supplemented estimates on the burden of Cryptosporidium in GBD 2016 with findings from a systematic review of published and unpublished cohort studies and a meta-analysis of the effect of childhood diarrhoea caused by Cryptosporidium infection on physical growth. Findings: In 2016, Cryptosporidium infection was the fifth leading diarrhoeal aetiology in children younger than 5 years, and acute infection caused more than 48 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24 600–81 900) and more than 4·2 million disability-adjusted life-years lost (95% UI 2·2 million–7·2 million). We identified seven data sources from the scientific literature and six individual-level data sources describing the relation between Cryptosporidium and childhood growth. Each episode of diarrhoea caused by Cryptosporidium infection was associated with a decrease in height-for-age Z score (0·049, 95% CI 0·014–0·080), weight-for-age Z score (0·095, 0·055–0·134), and weight-for-height Z score (0·126, 0·057–0·194). We estimated that diarrhoea from Cryptosporidium infection caused an additional 7·85 million disability-adjusted life-years (95% UI 5·42 million–10·11 million) after we accounted for its effect on growth faltering—153% more than that estimated from acute effects alone. Interpretation: Our findings show that the substantial short-term burden of diarrhoea from Cryptosporidium infection on childhood growth and wellbeing is an underestimate of the true burden. Interventions designed to prevent and effectively treat infection in children younger than 5 years will have enormous public health and social development impacts. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background: Most studies of the causes of diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries have looked at severe disease in people presenting for care, and there are few estimates of pathogen-specific diarrhoea burdens in the community. Methods: We undertook a birth cohort study with not only intensive community surveillance for diarrhoea but also routine collection of non-diarrhoeal stools from eight sites in South America, Africa, and Asia. We enrolled children within 17 days of birth, and diarrhoeal episodes (defined as maternal report of three or more loose stools in 24 h, or one loose stool with visible blood) were identified through twice-weekly home visits by fieldworkers over a follow-up period of 24 months. Non-diarrhoeal stool specimens were also collected for surveillance for months 1–12, 15, 18, 21, and 24. Stools were analysed for a broad range of enteropathogens using culture, enzyme immunoassay, and PCR. We used the adjusted attributable fraction (AF) to estimate pathogen-specific burdens of diarrhoea. Findings: Between November 26, 2009, and February 25, 2014, we tested 7318 diarrhoeal and 24 310 non-diarrhoeal stools collected from 2145 children aged 0–24 months. Pathogen detection was common in non-diarrhoeal stools but was higher with diarrhoea. Norovirus GII (AF 5·2%, 95% CI 3·0–7·1), rotavirus (4·8%, 4·5–5·0), Campylobacter spp (3·5%, 0·4–6·3), astrovirus (2·7%, 2·2–3·1), and Cryptosporidium spp (2·0%, 1·3–2·6) exhibited the highest attributable burdens of diarrhoea in the first year of life. The major pathogens associated with diarrhoea in the second year of life were Campylobacter spp (7·9%, 3·1–12·1), norovirus GII (5·4%, 2·1–7·8), rotavirus (4·9%, 4·4–5·2), astrovirus (4·2%, 3·5–4·7), and Shigella spp (4·0%, 3·6–4·3). Rotavirus had the highest AF for sites without rotavirus vaccination and the fifth highest AF for sites with the vaccination. There was substantial variation in pathogens according to geography, diarrhoea severity, and season. Bloody diarrhoea was primarily associated with Campylobacter spp and Shigella spp, fever and vomiting with rotavirus, and vomiting with norovirus GII. Interpretation: There was substantial heterogeneity in pathogen-specific burdens of diarrhoea, with important determinants including age, geography, season, rotavirus vaccine usage, and symptoms. These findings suggest that although single-pathogen strategies have an important role in the reduction of the burden of severe diarrhoeal disease, the effect of such interventions on total diarrhoeal incidence at the community level might be limited. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.