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9 results on '"James Kyle Miller"'

1. Forecasting emergence of COVID-19 variants of concern

Author

James Kyle Miller, Kimberly Elenberg, and Artur Dubrawski

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

We consider whether one can forecast the emergence of variants of concern in the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and similar pandemics. We explore methods of population genetics and identify key relevant principles in both deterministic and stochastic models of spread of infectious disease. Finally, we demonstrate that fitness variation, defined as a trait for which an increase in its value is associated with an increase in net Darwinian fitness if the value of other traits are held constant, is a strong indicator of imminent transition in the viral population.

Published
2022

9. Forecasting emergence of COVID-19 variants of concern

Author

James Kyle Miller, Kimberly Elenberg, and Artur Dubrawski

Subjects
Multidisciplinary, Genetics, Population, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Humans, Epidemiological Models, Genetic Fitness, Pandemics, Forecasting
Abstract

We consider whether one can forecast the emergence of variants of concern in the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and similar pandemics. We explore methods of population genetics and identify key relevant principles in both deterministic and stochastic models of spread of infectious disease. Finally, we demonstrate that fitness variation, defined as a trait for which an increase in its value is associated with an increase in net Darwinian fitness if the value of other traits are held constant, is a strong indicator of imminent transition in the viral population.

Published
2021

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