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Introduction: Despite ambitious plans to quadruple hydropower generation in the Indus basin, a quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on hydropower availability in the basin is missing. To address this gap, we combine downscaled CMIP6 projections with the Hydropower Potential Exploration (HyPE) model to quantify future hydropower potential available in the upper Indus basin. Methods: HyPE uses a spatial cost-minimization framework to evaluate four classes of hydropower potential, namely theoretical, technical, financial and sustainable, considering various constraints on the siting and sizing of two run-of-river hydropower plant configurations. Results: Under future discharge projections, all classes of potential increase while subbasin changes align with the spatial patterns projected in hydro-climatology. Theoretical potential changes by 3.9–56 %, technical potential by −2.3–46.8 %, financial potential by −8.8–50.4 % and sustainable potential by −6.1–49.7 %. A small decline is observed in the northwestern subbasins where increase in potential is lower than in the southeast. In contrast, with increasing variability in the Indian Summer Monsoon in the future, the southeastern subbasins have the strongest increase in sustainable potential accompanied by higher increase in plant size, decrease in costs and higher variability. The southeastern Satluj subbasin is the hotspot where sustainable potential has the highest increase of up to 145 %. The northwestern Kabul subbasin has the highest decrease of up to −27 %. The Swat subbasin has the lowest variability in sustainable potential while the Jhelum and Indus main subbasins remain the subbasins with the cheapest potential into the future. The performance of future sustainable portfolios differ from the performance of historical portfolios by −11.1–39.9 %. Discussion: Hence, considering future climate in the present-day planning of hydropower will lead to improved performance under a majority of scena

Based on the perceptions of the local farmers, this study aims to assess the effects of socioeconomic factors and climatic change on the groundwater livelihood system, with a particular focus on in situ Persian wheels/dug wells. Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and how it is affecting their way of life in the Soan River Basin have also been evaluated to determine the most appropriate adaptive interventions. Information and literature about dug wells was unavailable, which stressed the need to carry out this survey. A structured close-ended questionnaire was designed and administered with as much quantitative data as possible. Random sampling opted for a 5 km buffer zone across the Soan River and its tributaries. Union councils having more than 50% of their area lying in the buffer zone were surveyed, and data was collected. Fifty UCs fell within this criterion, and six dug wells from each Union Council were surveyed. The results of our survey collecting local farmer’s perceptions determined that about 70% of respondents agreed about climate change in the Soan Basin of Pakistan, and 62% of farmers reported that climate change severely impacted their livelihood by affecting agricultural productivity and water availability. Ninety-two percent reported summer becoming hot, 72% highlighted that winters are becoming less cold, and 96% reported that average annual rainfall has decreased compared to 10 years before. About 72% of respondents indicated that available water in their dug wells had decreased, and 80% of respondents explained that their crop yield had decreased compared to 10 years before. Sixty percent preferred drip and 35% sprinkler irrigation as efficient water management practices to cope with water shortages. Ninety-five percent of farmers were ready to use solar pumps for irrigation to tame high pumping costs. The study recommends integrating solar pumping with drip and sprinkler irrigation systems to enhance farmers’ cropped area and productivity. T

Water security and food security in the Indus basin are highly interlinked and subject to severe stresses. Irrigation water demands presently already exceed what the basin can sustainably provide, but per-capita food availability remains limited. Rapid population growth and climate change are projected to further intensify pressure on the interdependencies between water and food security. The agricultural system of the Indus basin must therefore change and adapt to be able to achieve the associated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The development of robust policies to guide such changes requires a thorough understanding of the synergies and trade-offs that different strategies for agricultural development may have for water and food security. In this study, we defined three contrasting trajectories for agricultural system change based on a review of scientific literature on regional agricultural developments and a stakeholder consultation workshop. We assessed the consequences of these trajectories for water and food security with a spatially explicit modeling framework for two scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change over the period 1980–2080. Our results demonstrate that agricultural system changes can ensure per capita food production in the basin remains sufficient under population growth. However, such changes require additional irrigation water resources and may strongly aggravate water stress. Conversely, a shift to sustainable water management can reduce water stress but has the consequence that basin-level food self-sufficiency may not be feasible in future. This suggests that biophysical limits likely exist that prevent agricultural system changes to ensure both sufficient food production and improve water security in the Indus basin under strong population growth. Our study concludes that agricultural system changes are an important adaptation mechanism toward achieving water and food SDGs, but must be developed alongside other strategies that

This archive contains preprocessed input data file setup for running the Hydropower Potential Exploration (HyPE) model for the Upper Indus basin. It contains inputs for running historical or future discharge scenarios. Preprocessed data are based on publicly available datasets described in supporting papers., This archive contains preprocessed input data file setup for running the Hydropower Potential Exploration (HyPE) model for the Upper Indus basin. It contains inputs for running historical or future discharge scenarios. Preprocessed data are based on publicly available datasets described in supporting papers.