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Mass developments of macrophytes occur frequently worldwide and are often considered a nuisance when interfering with human activities. It is crucial to understand the drivers of this perception if we are to develop effective management strategies for ecosystems with macrophyte mass developments. Using a comprehensive survey spanning five sites with different macrophyte species in four countries (Norway, France, Germany and South Africa), we quantified the perception of macrophyte growth as a nuisance among residents and visitors, and for different recreational activities (swimming, boating, angling, appreciation of biodiversity, appreciation of landscape and birdwatching). We then used a Bayesian network approach to integrate the perception of nuisance with the consequences of plant removal. From the 1234 responses collected from the five sites, a range of 73–93% of the respondents across the sites considered macrophyte growth a nuisance at each site. Residents perceived macrophytes up to 23% more problematic than visitors. Environmental mindedness of respondents did not influence the perception of nuisance. Perceived nuisance of macrophytes was relatively similar for different recreational activities that were possible in each case study site, although we found some site-specific variation. Finally, we illustrate how Bayesian networks can be used to choose the best management option by balancing people’s perception of macrophyte growth with the potential consequences of macrophyte removal.

Hydropower is a flexible form of electricity generation providing both baseload and balancing power to accommodate intermittent renewables in the energy mix. However, hydropower also generates various externalities. This study investigates individuals’ preferences for policies aiming to reduce short-term regulations (i.e., hydropeaking in regulated rivers) while accounting for associated externalities with a discrete choice experiment. This is the first valuation study focusing on hydropeaking that considers both negative and positive externalities. The results imply that most individuals prefer stronger restrictions on short-term regulations to mitigate local environmental impacts. Individuals especially value improvements in recreational use, fish stocks, and the ecological state. On the other hand, potential increases in CO2 emissions are linked with a clear disutility. The estimated benefits obtained from an improved state of the river environment due to such restrictions probably exceed the disutility caused by increased CO2 emissions. The results also reveal unobserved preference heterogeneity among individuals, which should be accounted for in the willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimation using a model specification with correlated utility coefficients. Overall, the findings can inform policy-makers and environmental managers on the economic value of hydropeaking externalities and further guide the sustainable management of rivers regulated for hydropower generation.

Further development of the bioeconomy, the substitution of bioresources for fossil resources, will lead to an increased pressure on land and water resources in both agriculture and forestry. It is important to study whether resultant changes in land management may in turn lead to impairment of water services. This paper describes the Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways (NBPs), a set of regional sectoral storylines nested within the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework developed to provide the BIOWATER research program with land management scenarios for projecting future developments to explore possible conflicts between land management changes and the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The NBPs are a set of narrative storylines capturing a range of plausible future trajectories for the Nordic bioeconomy until 2050 and that are fit for use within hydrological catchment modelling, ecosystem service studies and stakeholder dialogue about possible changes in agricultural and forestry management practices.

The inherently unknown future development of a Nordic bio-economy was studied with four scenarios applied in an ecosystem service assessment framework. This framework couples CORINE land use cover with estimates of 15 final ecosystem services from the CICES 5.1 classification in biophysical and monetary terms. Current land use in two catchments, Lillebæk (83% cropland, area 4.7 km2, Denmark) and Ovre Haldenvassdraget (67% forest, 1006 km2, Norway) was compared with four scenarios for 2050. One scenario focusing on sustainability and environmental awareness led to considerable changes in land use and ecosystem service delivery (more diverse provisioning and higher value of regulating services, but not a higher total economic value), whereas the other three did not deviate markedly from the current scenario. Projected land use scenarios were verified with experts and stakeholder representatives. We conclude that the framework has sufficient resolution to show differences in service delivery among scenarios. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01348-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Policy makers in Nordic countries envisage a developing bioeconomy as an important element in the transition towards a fossil-energy-free future. However, although the shape of such a bioeconomy is unclear, impacts on land use and land management are likely. To analyse the possible impact on ecosystem services value of this transition, we used five scenarios that describe possible socio-economic environments in the four Nordic countries in the year 2050. These five Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways (NBPs) have been labelled in brief as: ‘sustainability first’, ‘conventional first’, ‘self-sufficiency first’, ‘city first’ and ‘growth first’. In this paper, we adapted an existing integrating framework of ecosystem service delivery to accommodate these NBPs and estimated economic value of all services for six study catchments across the Nordic countries: Odense (DK), Simojoki (FI), Haldenvassdraget (NO), Orrevassdraget (NO), Sävjaån (SE) and Vindelälven (SE). We articulated the scenario storylines to a set of numerical attributes per NBP using input from secondary data sources and interviews with stakeholder representatives and local experts. We made land use change spatially explicit based on the catchment's physical characteristics and used links between catchment attributes and ecosystem services flow to estimate annual ecosystem services generation in biophysical and monetary units. Outcomes suggest: the value of active recreation increases more in 'sustainability first' and 'growth first' than in other scenarios; variations in total value are largest among catchments under 'city first'; the overall rank order of ecosystem services value within catchments largely remains unchanged under all NBPs. We conclude that outdoor recreation contributes a high benefit to society that is likely not adequately considered relative to provisioning services in current decision making, and that these benefits appear sensitive to how a bioeconomy will develop. Overall, the estimated summed value delivered in these catchments is highest under the 'sustainability first' and 'growth first' scenarios.

Sixteen ecosystem services were quantified for the riverine landscapes of the Nahe, Stever (Germany), Bresse plain, and Azergues (France), to assess the effects of riparian woodland cover. Future woodland cover in 2050 was modeled to reflect contrasting scenarios of river management aligned to the well-established shared socioeconomic pathways. The scenarios are labeled as current, pessimistic, best practice, and ambitious riparian management practices (RMPs). We linked services to floodplain land use and river morphology and quantified them separately for spatial segments (0.5–1 km in length, n = 118–3419, depending on river length), using an analytical framework, the “Mononen cascade.” Conservative monetary value estimates were based on net producer income before tax and subsidy, a shadow market price for carbon, flood damage functions, or willingness to pay for recreation and non-use. Most services were linked to land use, some affected the value of other services through simple rules (woodland shade affected trout survival hence angling benefit, a minimum of woodland affected pest regulation, hence crop productivity). In the current landscape state, provisioning, regulating, and cultural services all showed optimum curves with woodland cover: Provisioning services and cultural services were maximal around 45%, whereas this was around 30% for regulating services. More woodland was present in steeper near-source segments. Averaged across rivers, mean total service provision was estimated at 1084 ± 4 €·ha−¹·yr−¹, with 40%, 36%, and 24% contributed by, respectively, provisioning, regulating, and cultural services. The three scenarios led to a limited change in total ecosystem service delivery, even if mean woodland cover was reduced from 27% to 17% in the pessimistic RMP and increased to 70% in the ambitious RMP for the most extreme case of the Stever. Provisioning services declined with increased woodland cover and cultural services increased. Regulating services did not change that much, because they are dominated by flood prevention in our assessment. The “best practice” scenario appeared to combine a modest increase in cultural services with a slight increase in provisioning service. An ambitious nature conservation objective as in the ambitious RMP appears possible without seriously compromising overall societal benefit. CA extern

Urbanization drives changes in peri-urban farmland use which probably affects the spatial pattern of landscape service provision. This study charts patterns in these services and analyses the impacts of biophysical and social-economic factors such as land use allocation and proximity. A spatially explicit survey was conducted among 767 farmer households on the urban–rural fringe of rapidly urbanizing Wuhan (China). The hypothesis of a largely linear change with distance from the urban centre was tested separately for 7 quantified landscape services with RDA and regression analysis. Significant linear patterns were found for 4 landscape services: food, vegetables and fruits, trees, and storm water runoff reduction. Air pollution mitigation and recreation were found to be associated with nearby water rather than green infrastructure, which is likely due to the abundance of water around Wuhan. In addition, storm water runoff reduction correlated with green infrastructure (grasslands and forests). Bundling of landscape services was found to vary along the urban–rural fringe, with recreation and air pollution mitigation bundled at the urban end, while ponds and recreation bundled in the rural outer zone. In short, several provisioning and regulating services varied linearly with distance, whereas others did not, due to the strong geographical forcing by water.

Nordic catchments provide a variety of ecosystem services, from harvestable goods to mitigation of climate change and recreational possibilities. Flows of supplied ecosystem services depend on a broad range of factors, including climate, hydrology, land management and human population density. The aims of this study were: 1) to quantify the total economic value (TEV) of consumed ecosystem services across Nordic catchments, 2) to explain variation in ecosystem service value using socio-geographic and natural factors as explanatory variables in multiple linear regression, and 3) to determine which societal groups benefit from these ecosystem services. Furthermore, we tested the scientific rigour of our framework based on the concept of final ecosystem services (FES). We used a spatially explicit, integrative framework for ecosystem services quantification to compile data on final ecosystem services provision from six catchments across Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Our estimates showed a broad variation in TEV and in the proportion contributed by separate services, with the highest TEV of €7,199 ± 4,561 ha-1 y-1 (mean ± standard deviation) in the Norwegian Orrevassdraget catchment, and the lowest TEV of €183 ± 517 ha-1 y-1 in the Finnish Simojoki catchment. The value of material services was dependent on both geographic factors and land management practices, while the value of immaterial services was strongly dependent on population density and the availability of water. Using spatial data on land use, forest productivity and population density in a GIS analysis showed where hotspots of ecosystem services supply are located, and where specific stakeholder groups benefit most. We show that our framework is applicable to a broad variety of data sources and across countries, making international comparative analyses possible.

Biological assessment metrics and water chemistry measurements are used to quantify the link between stressors and their effects on lake ecosystems, for the Water Framework Directive. However, correlations between metrics and water chemistry are often poor. This is seen as major weaknesses of Water Framework Directive-related monitoring and assessment. We analyzed macrophytes, benthic algae, benthic macroinvertebrates, water chemistry and sediment total phosphorus content in the littoral of six lakes in the Western Balkans and used CORINE land use data to estimate nutrient enrichment via runoff from the adjacent land. Lakes with a higher estimated phosphorus runoff from the adjacent land did not have higher littoral water nutrient concentrations, but littoral diatom assemblages indicated more eutrophic conditions. These lakes also had higher abundances of littoral benthic primary producers, which in turn were associated with low concentrations of dissolved nutrients, but only in autumn, not in spring. This is consistent with primary producers taking up nutrients during the summer growth season. In lakes with high abundances of benthic primary producers, it is likely that the littoral vegetation plays a large role in the transfer of nutrients from the water to the benthos. This process impairs correlations between biological metrics and water nutrient concentrations. Our results suggest that CORINE land cover may be more useful to characterize littoral nutrient enrichment than lake water chemistry. Increased benthic primary producer biomasses and “eutrophic” diatom indices may indicate littoral nutrient enrichment even if water nutrient concentrations are low.

Along six transects in each of six lakes across the Western Balkans, we collected data for three groups of littoral biological water quality indicators: epilithic diatoms, macrophytes, and benthic invertebrates. We assessed the relationships between them and three environmental pressures: nutrient load (eutrophication), hydro-morphological alteration of the shoreline, and water level variation, separating the effect of individual lakes and continuous explanatory variables. Lake water total phosphorus concentration (TP) showed substantial variation but was not related to any of the tested biological indicators, nor to any of the tested pressures. We suggest that this may be due to feedback processes such as P removal in the lake littoral zone. Instead, we found that a gradient in surrounding land-use towards increasing urbanization, and a land-use-based estimate of P run-off, served as a better descriptor of eutrophication. Overall, eutrophication and water level fluctuation were most important for explaining variation in the assessed indicators, whereas shoreline hydro-morphological alteration was less important. Diatom indicators were most responsive to all three pressures, whereas macrophyte biomass and species number responded only to water level fluctuation. The Trophic Diatom Index for Lakes (TDIL) was negatively related to urbanization and wave exposure. This indicates that it is a suitable indicator for pressures related to urbanization, although a confounding effect of wave exposure is possible. Invertebrate abundance responded strongly to eutrophication, but the indicator based on taxonomic composition (Average Score Per Taxon) did not. Our results suggest that our metrics can be applied in Western Balkan lakes, despite the high number of endemic species present in some of these lakes. We argue that local water management should focus on abating the causes of eutrophication and water level fluctuation, whilst preserving sufficient lengths of undeveloped shoreline to ensure good water quality in the long run.

In the future, the world is expected to rely increasingly on renewable biomass resources for food, fodder, fibre and fuel. The sustainability of this transition to bioeconomy for our water systems depends to a large extent on how we manage our land resources. Changes in land use together with climate change will affect water quantity and quality, which again will have implications for the ecosystem services provided by water resources. These are the main topics of this Ambio special issue on “Environmental effects of a green bio-economy”. This paper offers a summary of the eleven papers included in this issue and, at the same time, outlines an approach to quantify and mitigate the impacts of bioeconomy on water resources and their ecosystem services, with indications of useful tools and knowledge needs.

Nitrogen and phosphorus budgets were compiled for the littoral (29 km2) and pelagic (329 km2) of ancient, deep, clear, and hard water Lake Ohrid (Albania and North Macedonia), to assess the importance of the littoral in nutrient retention. P originates mainly from domestic point sources (73%), for N this is karst seepage (50%). Total littoral loads are estimated at 1700 kg P and 23,200 kg N km−2 (area of littoral) yr−1; net littoral retention is 31% ± 13% for P and 40% ± 16% for N, largely in the dense charophyte belt. P retention is mainly due to detritus burial, but also due to coprecipitation; N retention is due to both detritus burial and denitrification. A Monte‐Carlo plausibility analysis balanced the budget by increasing nonconnected domestic household inputs (from 20% to 27% of external load), and decreasing pelagic sediment P burial by 27% and littoral denitrification by 25%. Scenario projections for 2100 corresponding to SRES A2 and B1 were linked to an AQUASIM lake ecosystem model. Under B1, the changes were small compared to the present. A2, however, led to a major reduction in precipitation, an increase in evapotranspiration, a reduction in river outflow (to ∼ 20%), a doubling in P‐loading, a drop in lake level of ∼ 1.5 m, and a decline in the extent of the charophyte belt. Areal loading of the littoral would increase accordingly, but water transparency would not decline much. Also, the littoral vegetation will witness a shift in species composition, and an increase in filamentous Cladophora cover.

Summary The decline in emergent reed beds in eutrophic shallow lakes in Europe has been linked to multiple factors, such as adverse water and sediment quality, shoreline development and fixed water level preventing recolonisation, recreational disturbances and herbivory by geese and muskrat. This study analyses the relative importance of these factors in a historical context and tests experimentally what currently may prevent the re-establishment of emergent reed beds. We examined the historical extent of emergent reed stands (1925–2013) in relation to long-term time series of lakeside housing development (1920–2013), abundance of greylag geese (Anser anser) and muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus) as well as water quality (1977–2013) for the shallow lowland peat lake district of Reeuwijk in The Netherlands. In addition, we carried out a comparative survey to generalise our results and an exclosure experiment to test whether current muskrat grazing pressure may hamper restoration efforts. A steady, linear decline in the extent of emergent reed beds over time corresponded significantly with a similar increase in lakeside house density. We found no correlation with herbivore stocks or water quality parameters. In the exclosures, rapid expansion of common reed (Phragmites australis), branched bur-reed (Sparganium erectum) and submerged pondweeds (Potamogeton spp.) occurred, suggesting muskrat herbivory as a factor-limiting emergent reed re-establishment in the foreshore. A combined understanding of the different roles of slow, long-term pressures (such as housing development) and present constraints (the continuous grazing pressure by muskrat despite a culling program) is crucial to the successful restoration of reed beds in shallow lakes.

Monetary valuation of dryland ecosystem services may help to increase the salience of drylands in decision making. Yet, there is no comprehensive assessment of the indicators that determine the estimated monetary values for dryland ecosystem services (hereafter: dryland value). Having compiled a database consisting of 559 observations from 66 valuation studies in drylands worldwide, this study analyzes the relative importance of local socio-economic, environmental and methodological indicators in explaining the monetary value estimates for nine dryland ecosystem services by means of a multiple regression analysis. By explicitly quantifying the effect sizes of the indicators of dryland value, we shed new light on the driving forces behind monetary valuation of dryland ecosystem services. Our results show that local socio-economic and environmental conditions are marginal in explaining dryland value, indicating that local dryland conditions are not sufficiently captured with current valuation approaches. Simultaneously, we find that methodological factors, including valuation method and study extent, heavily influence dryland value, suggesting that monetary valuation outcomes are largely determined by the selected methodology. This emphasizes the need to improve monetary valuation methods so that they better capture local dryland conditions in order to be able to serve as a meaningful tool for decision making.

We augment discussions about the Good Environmental Status of the North Sea by developing two extreme visions and assessing their societal benefits. One vision (‘Then’) assumes restoration of benthic functioning; we contend that trawling had already degraded the southern North Sea a century ago. Available information is used to speculate about benthic functioning in a relatively undisturbed southern North Sea. The second vision (‘Now’) draws on recent benthic functioning. The supply of five ecosystem services, supported by benthic functioning, is discussed. ‘Then’ offers confidence in the sustainable supply of diverse services but restoration of past function is uncertain and likely to be paired with costs, notably trawling restraints. ‘Now’ delivers known and valued services but sustained delivery is threatened by, for example, climate change. We do not advocate either vision. Our purpose is to stimulate debate about what society wants, and might receive, from the future southern North Sea. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0536-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

This study was supported financially by the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science (MEC CGL2005-07059-C02). The authors thank Alberto Barcos and Mercedes Garcia for their help in the water sample analysis. The authors thank the IVM for their hospitality.

An empirical method has been developed to quantify perceived landscape cluttering. This method was verified against a subjective, expert-based assessment from literature and tested in a scenario application of land use change in the Netherlands using the land use simulation model ‘Land Use Scanner’. The empirical model included three main factors: (1) visually obtrusive landscape elements, such as highway infrastructure, greenhouses, livestock-rearing stables and residential premises, (2) land use diversity and (3) openness of the landscape. The cluttering impact of obtrusive elements (factor 1) was evaluated with a distance decay function. A weighting scheme was applied on these three factors and the resulting cluttering scores were extracted for the same 72 landscape grids of 1 km2 that had been surveyed before in the subjective, expert-based study. Objective and subjective cluttering assessments were found to correlate significantly, although the explained variance was moderate, which may be attributed to methodological differences. Cluttering was found to decrease significantly with distance from urban centres. Scenario outcomes of land use change differed in cluttering in line with the scenario storylines, demonstrating the discriminatory power of the developed cluttering indicator.

The method of monetary valuation of ecosystem services has been argued to depend on the type of ecosystem under consideration and the choice of valuation method. Still, the impact of these factors has been hardly studied in a quantitative manner. This study aims to analyze the differential effects of ecosystem type and valuation method on the values estimated for ecosystem services, as well as the potential impact of these effects on aggregated values for ecosystem services. Drylands pose a highly relevant case to investigate these impacts, because they are particularly diverse in ecosystem types, the provided ecosystem services and, hence, are also expected to be estimated with various methods. Our analysis is based on a quantitative analysis of monetary estimates for ecosystem services (expressed in Int$/ha/yr) that were compiled in a comprehensive database containing 512 observations from 57 studies located in drylands worldwide. Our results reveal that the estimated values for dryland ecosystem services depended on the type of ecosystem and method under consideration. Several of these differential effects had a significant impact on the aggregated mean values for dryland ecosystem services. Cultivated lands had high mean values for provisioning services, in particular for food provision, but low values for regulating services. In dry forests, biodiversity-related services were estimated high, in contrast to semi-deserts and arid wetlands. Compared with other methods, market pricing estimated low values for climate regulation and high values for biological regulation. When values were aggregated for ecosystem services, market pricing was found to impact the mean value for climate and biological regulation significantly. Our results highlight the importance of explicit consideration of methods and ecosystem types in monetary valuation, which could lead to more accurate approximation of ecosystem service values.

Erworben im Rahmen der Schweizer Nationallizenzen (http://www.nationallizenzen.ch) Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of 'Continental Europe'. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50-100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40-50%). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50% of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects.

Net subsidence of most major deltas in the world and related vulnerability are thought to be increasing, and this is often linked causally to human activities. This paper examines this causality against a range of co-varying factors. We do so with a principal component analysis of co-variability of a range of geophysical and socio-economical indicators of 33 deltas mainly derived from the DIVA tool. Land potentially lost and people at risk of flooding are our indicators of vulnerability. The former correlated positively with maximum surge height and negatively with net sea level rise. The latter correlated positively with delta area, average river discharge, and maximum surge and negatively with net uplift (or subsidence). Thus, variation in societal vulnerability across deltas depends on short-term, instantaneous risks linked to lowland area, river discharge and storm surges rather than on longer-term, slow, net sea level rise. Delta management should focus on precautionary spatial planning, and on maintenance or restoration of historical sediment delivery and accretion rates. Especially larger deltas with high population densities combine a high risk with the potential to accommodate flood water and mitigate flooding risks. The deltas of the Yangtze-Kiang and Ganges-Brahmaputra share these characteristics. Here space should allow engineering of flood retention, sedimentation and diversion channels as well as refuges and safe economic hotspots. At the other end, in deltas with a high population density and limited space, like the Chao Praya, means for adaptation must be sought outside the delta proper. In deltas with low population densities, such as the Lena, Yukon or Fly, natural delta dynamics can prevail. © 2012 The Author(s).

International audience

This paper sketches the historical common grounds of economics and earth sciences from their roots as scientific disciplines in the period of Enlightenment, and from a much earlier not necessarily scientifical commonality in the economic dependency of early societies on the prevalence of natural resources on the surface of the earth. It proceeds by stressing the commonality of the two disciplines in being empirical and positivistically mechanistic, without ignoring the major socio-cultural rift that occurs between their respective practitioners. The argument is put forward that societal problems, whether global or local, are often not straightforward and easily solved with the tools of a single discipline, and a plea is made for the combination of earth sciences and economics as candidates for a potent multi-disciplinary combination. Briefly, the BSc curriculum in Earth Sciences and Economics is justified and an accompanying research agenda is highlighted that starts from an empirical quantification of ecosystem services at the landscape scale of catchments.

Using the drivers-pressures-state-impact-responses (DPSIR) analytical framework, local stakeholder respondents and experts were interviewed to construct and prioritize a causality network that links ecosystem state of the coastal waters of Berau (East Kalimantan, Indonesia) with societal drivers of change. Particularly on the perceived top priority drivers and pressures, consensus among respondents was considerable. The constructed network was found to be consistent with literature findings from elsewhere in SE Asia. This causality network was then confronted with a local articulation of the SRES scenarios (IPCCs Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A1, A2, B1, B2), and four plausible trajectories of future change were deduced over a period of 20 years, until 2030. Our scenario articulations differed greatly in the projected immigration influx into the region, in local economic growth and in institutional strength of governance. Under business-as-usual conditions, it is foreseen that fisheries will continue to overexploit the resource, and inland and mangrove deforestation, as well as sediment and sewage loading of the coastal waters, will increase, leading to declines in coral and seagrass extent and depleted fisheries. Scenarios with continued immigration (~A1, A2) will probably aggravate this pattern, whereas those with reduced immigration (~B1, B2) would appear to lead to considerable improvements in the state of the coastal waters of Berau. © 2011 The Author(s).

Regime shift and principal component analysis of a spatially disaggregated database capturing time-series of climatic, nutrient and plankton variables in the North Sea revealed considerable covariance between groups of ecosystem indicators. Plankton and climate time-series span the period 1958–2003, those of nutrients start in 1980. In both regions, the period from 1989 to 2001 identified in principal component 1 had warmer surface waters, higher Atlantic inflow and stronger winds, than the periods before or after. However, it was preceded by a regime shift in both open (PC2) and coastal (PC3) waters during 1977 towards more hours of sunlight and higher water temperature, which lasted until 1997. The relative influence of nutrient availability and climatic forcing differed between open and coastal North Sea regions. Inter-annual variability in phytoplankton dynamics of the open North Sea was primarily regulated by climatic forcing, specifically by sea surface temperature, Atlantic inflow and co-varying wind stress and NAO. Coastal phytoplankton variability, however, was regulated by insolation and sea surface temperature, as well as Si availability, but not by N or P. Regime shifts in principal components of hydrographic and climatic variables (explaining 55 and 61% of the variance in coastal and open water variables) were detected using Rodionov's sequential t-test. These shifts in hydroclimatic variables which occurred around 1977, 1989, 1997 and 2001, were synchronized in open and coastal waters, and were tracked by open water chlorophyll and copepods, but not by coastal plankton. North–central–south or open-coastal spatial breakdowns of the North Sea explained similar amounts of variability in most ecosystem indicators with the exception of diatom abundance and chlorophyll concentration, which were clearly better explained using the open-coastal configuration.

Peat ponds have been restored widely in the Netherlands to enhance the available habitat for species-rich plant communities that characterize the early succession stages toward land. Colonization success of 33 target aquatic species has been quantified in eight complexes of new ponds. It has been related to the lay-out of these ponds, the structure of the surrounding landscape, (historic) prevalence of source populations within the complex and within a perimeter of 10 km, and pond water quality. Colonization success was variable: between 6 and 26 target species had reached the complexes in 1998. This success was coupled to the first principal component (PC) in a principal component analysis (PCA) explaining 44% of the variation in 27 variables. This first PC correlated with historical perimeter and local within-complex species richness, the number of ponds in the complex, the SW orientation of ditches in these complexes and pH, and transparency of the water. Age of the ponds (1-9 years), area of open water (8-42%), and shoreline density (13-43 km/km

Water and nutrient budgets were con- structed for 13 low-lying peat polders in the Neth- erlands that varied in elevation relative to sea level (-0.2 to -2.4 m below sea level), land use (7-70% of the total polder area covered by agriculture; largely dairy farming), and surface water prevalence (6-43%). Water balances were verified with chloride budgets and accepted when both met the criterion (total inflows - total outflows)/(total inflows) \0.05. Apart from precipitation and evapotranspiration (overall means 913 vs. 600 mm), in- and outlet (171 vs. 420 mm) as well as in- and outward seepage (137 vs. 174 mm) were important items in the water budgets. Nutrient budgets, however, were dominated by terms related to agricultural land use (*60% of all inputs, 90% of N-removal and 80% of P removal) rather than water fluxes (8% and 5% of N and P inputs; 6 and 18% of outputs). After agriculture (200 kg N ha -1 y -1 ), mineralisation of the peat soil and atmospheric deposition appear to be important inputs (about 94 and 21 kg N ha -1 y -1 ). Major output terms were agricultural output (209 kg N ha -1 y -1 ) and denitrification (95 kg N ha -1 y -1 ). The average N budget was in balance (difference * 1k g Nh a -1 y -1 ), whereas P accumulated in most polders, partic- ularly those under agriculture. The mean P surplus (15 kg P ha -1 y -1 in the 9 mainly agricultural polders) corresponds well with the accumulated difference observed elsewhere (700 kg P ha -1 in the upper 50 cm in a nature reserve versus 1400 under agriculture) after over 50 years of dairy farming. Bulk retention of N and P in these polders is taking place in the peat soil, through temporary sorption to the matrix and N is lost through denitrification. In a principal components analysis combining land use, landscape pattern, water balance and nutrient budget terms, the three-first principal components explained 63% of the variability. The first component (PC) correlated strongly with the percentage of land under agriculture (r = 0.82) and negatively with the percentage covered by surface water (r =- 0.74). Most input and output terms of the nitrogen budget also correlated with this PC. The second PC covaried distinctly with the total area of a polder (r =- 0.79) and human population density at municipality level (r = 0.75). Phosphorus loads in inlet and outlet water correlated with this PC. This suggests that the variability in nutrient budgets among polders is largely governed by agricultural land use.

Seagrasses are a group of 12 genera of monocotyledonous plants in four families that have successfully colonised shallow coastal seas, probably since the Cretaceous. Variations in light availability and water movement are prime environmental factors for the growth of these marine angiosperms. An overall similarity in growth form and modular clonal architecture allows the generalisation that small species have short-lived shoots with rapidly elongating rhizome axes, whilst the larger species have longer-lived shoots that do not expand rapidly with rhizomes. Annual rhizome elongation rates range between 2 cm and 4 m among species. This range in expansion capacity is correlated with rhizome diameter in an allometric fashion ( y =191 x −1.5 , r 2 =0.58, p n =150). Spatial complexity is highest in multi-species seagrass beds, such as those of the Indo-Pacific region and Australia. Seagrass beds function as important coastal filters for nutrients and pollutants and display high carbon sequestration rates. Due to the recalcitrant nature of seagrass detritus, it forms a disproportionally high contribution (12%, but only 1% of productivity) to the carbon stored in ocean sediments. The services provided by these ecosystems to human society range from water quality improvement via nursery and feeding grounds for economically important fish to storm buffering and recreative amenity.

The covariance among a range of 20 network structural properties of food webs plus net primary productivity was assessed for 14 published food webs using principal components analysis. Three primary components explained 84% of the variability in the data sets, suggesting substantial covariance among the properties employed in the literature. The first dimension explained 48% of the variance and could be ascribed to connectance, covarying significantly with the proportion of intermediate species and characteristic path length. The second dimension explained 19% and was related to trophic species richness. The third axis explained 17% and was related to ecosystem net primary productivity. A distinct opposite clustering of connectance, the proportion of intermediate species, and mean trophic level vs. the proportion of top and basal species and path length suggests a dichotomy in food-web structure. Food webs appear either clustered and highly interconnected or elongated with fewer links. © 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

The Land Use Scanner (LUS) is a decision support system for land use planning that is widely used in the Netherlands. The model yields solutions that have a high resolution (500×500 m) and reflect economic equilibrium in the land market, in which eighteen types of land use and nine aggregated habitat types competitively bid for locations. Here, an extension to the LUS is presented that enables the internalisation of environmental externalities. The focus in this study is on two important externalities, namely ammonia emissions from agriculture and habitat fragmentation. We simulate four IPCC-based land use scenarios and assess the level of fragmentation of the nine habitat types. We also perform sensitivity analyses in the most market-oriented scenario on the effectiveness of market-based instruments in promoting more efficient land allocation. The simulation results suggest that particularly the habitat type 'rain-fed mires and bogs' is susceptible to fragmentation. The sensitivity analyses show that internalising the damage costs of fragmentation resulted in smaller changes in land allocation than internalising those of nitrogen deposition. For both instruments, the policy effort was large in relation to the efficiency gains in land allocation. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The key patch approach assumes that metapopulations in fragmented landscapes are likely to be viable with at least one “key” sub-population that is sufficiently large to ensure re-colonization of surrounding minor habitat patches. It is based on a minimum viable number of breeding pairs and within-breeding season dispersal distance, linked to size of the animal and longevity. It was tested using census data of 15 wetland bird species (bearded tit, bluethroat, great reed warbler, sedge warbler, Savi’s warbler, grasshopper warbler, spotted crake, water rail, common snipe, common teal, garganey, little bittern, night heron, great bittern and marsh harrier) in 14 wetland complexes of variable size (3–55 km2) spread across the Netherlands (distances ranging 4–156 km). First, for each species it was assessed whether a wetland harbored a key subpopulation, which was the case for the sedge warbler (7 key subpopulations), grass-hopper warbler (2), water rail (2), bearded tit, bluethroat, Savi’s warbler, common teal, garganey, great bittern and marsh harrier (all one key subpopulation).Together with the adjacent sub-populations present within breeding season dispersal distance, 10 out of the 15 studied species formed viable meta-populations. This was compared with the trend in the census data of 13 species for 1990–2000 and was found to correspond significantly (likelihood ratio test, P = 0.003): species without a viable meta-population had declined (2 out of 4) or remained stable (2 out of 4), whereas viable meta-populations had increased (6 out of 9) or remained comparatively stable (2 out of 9). One wetland complex, the Oostvaardersplassen, stood out in that it haboured key sub-populations for 9 out of the 15 species studied. Variation in quantity of specific habitat (area or perimeter marshland, woodland or open water) in a wetland complex was of limited importance explaining abundance patterns, since all covaried strongly with total area among the wetland complexes, with the exception of water perimeter. Apparently, these wetlands on peat harbour largely similar landscapes. Indeed, population sizes of most birds covaried strongly and in a PCA two distinct clusters of species were identified that shared high numbers of breeding pairs in the same, larger, wetland complexes, the first (3 species) including the great reed warbler, and the second (9 species) the water rail.

Socio-economic development in Europe has exerted increasing pressure on the marine environment. Eutrophication, caused by nutrient enrichment, is evident in regions of all European seas. Its severity varies but has, in places, adversely impacted socio-economic activities. This paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of recently adopted policies to reduce anthropogenic nutrient inputs to European seas. Nitrogen and phosphorus budgets were constructed for three different periods (prior to severe eutrophication, during severe eutrophication and contemporary) to capture changes in the relative importance of different nutrient sources in four European seas suffering from eutrophication (Baltic Proper, coastal North Sea, Northern Adriatic and North-Western Black Sea Shelf). Policy success is evident for point sources, notably for P in the Baltic and North Seas, but reduction of diffuse sources has been more problematic. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Annual sulfate mass balances have been constructed for four low-lying peat polders in the Netherlands, to resolve the origin of high sulfate concentrations in surface water, which is considered a water quality problem, as indicated amongst others by the absence of sensitive water plant species. Potential limitation of these plants to areas with low sulfate was analyzed with a spatial match-up of two large databases. The peat polders are generally used for dairy farming or nature conservation, and have considerable areas of shallow surface water (mean 16%, range 6-43%). As a consequence of continuous drainage, the peat in these polders mineralizes causing subsidence rates generally ranging between 2 and 10mmy-1. Together with pyrite oxidation, this peat mineralization the most important internal source of sulfate, providing an estimated 96kgSO4ha-1mm-1subsidencey-1. External sources are precipitation and water supplied during summer to compensate for water shortage, but these were found to be minor compared to internal release. The most important output flux is discharge of excess surface water during autumn and winter. If only external fluxes in and out of a polder are evaluated, inputs average 37±9 and exports 169±17kgSha-1y-1. During summer, when evapotranspiration exceeds rainfall, sulfate accumulates in the unsaturated zone, to be flushed away and drained off during the wet autumn and winter. In some polders, upward seepage from early Holocene, brackish sediments can be a source of sulfate. Peat polders export sulfate to the regional water system and the sea during winter drainage. The available sulfate probably only plays a minor role in the oxidation of peat: we estimate that this is less than 10% whereas aerobic mineralization is the most important. Most surface waters in these polders have high sulfate concentrations, which generally decline during the growing season when aquatic sediments are a sink. In the sediment, this sulfur is reduced and binds iron more strongly than phosphorus, which can be released to the overlying water and potentially fuels eutrophication. About 76% of the sampled vegetation-sites exceeded a threshold of 50mgl-1SO4, above which sensitive species, such as Stratiotes aloides, and several species of Potamogeton were significantly less abundant. Thus high sulfate concentrations, mainly due to land drainage and consequent mineralization, appear to affect aquatic plant community composition.

Aquatic plants and benthic algae have long been used as indicators for nutrient enrichment in lakes and streams. Evaluations of the performance of indices calculated from species assemblages of aquatic plants and algae are generally based on correlations with water nutrient concentrations. We argue that this is a misinterpretation, because water chemistry is both cause and effect: higher nutrient concentrations may cause enhanced plant and algal growth and change their assemblages, but plants and benthic algae also remove nutrients from the water. Additionally, biotic interactions blur water chemistry – aquatic plant relationships. We suggest that indices can be improved by relating biotic responses to quantifiable causal stressors, such as nutrient loading, instead of using water chemistry for performance evaluation of the indices. In addition, a tiered approach, i.e., the use of simpler indices for getting an overview and of sophisticated methods in doubtful cases, could avoid unnecessary costs and efforts while giving important monitoring and management information.

This paper is a contribution from the EU seventh framework funded research project REFORM (Grant Agreement 282656). The success of river restoration was estimated using the ecosystem services approach. In eight pairs of restored–unrestored reaches and floodplains across Europe, we quantified provisioning (agricultural products, wood, reed for thatching, infiltrated drinking water), regulating (flooding and drainage, nutrient retention, carbon sequestration) and cultural (recreational hunting and fishing, kayaking, biodiversity conservation, appreciation of scenic landscapes) services for separate habitats within each reach, and summed these to annual economic value normalized per reach area. We used locally available data and literature, did surveys among inhabitants and visitors, and used a range of economic methods (market value, shadow price, replacement cost, avoided damage, willingness-to-pay survey, choice experiment) to provide final monetary service estimates. Total ecosystem service value was significantly increased in the restored reaches (difference 1400 ± 600 € ha−1 year−1; 2500 − 1100, p = 0.03, paired t test). Removal of one extreme case did not affect this outcome. We analysed the relation between services delivered and with floodplain and catchment characteristics after reducing these 23 variables to four principal components explaining 80% of the variance. Cultural and regulating services correlated positively with human population density, cattle density and agricultural N surplus in the catchment, but not with the fraction of arable land or forest, floodplain slope, mean river discharge or GDP. Our interpretation is that landscape appreciation and flood risk alleviation are a function of human population density, but not wealth, in areas where dairy farming is the prime form of agriculture. Postprint

Decision support systems can be helpful tools in wetland planning and management. Decision support systems can contribute to efficient exchange of information between experts, stakeholders, decision makers and laypeople. However, the achievements of decision support systems are repeatedly being reported as modest. The objective of this article is to specify the roles and requirements of decision support tools in wetland planning. Why do such tools often fail and how can they be improved? Too often, systems are developed from a technological developers' push (supply-driven) rather than through a demand-driven process where the need for certain technologies to effectively support decision processes is being specified. It is questioned whether (often technocratic) tools are still equipped to support the complex planning and management process where different stakeholders interact. Two tools are described, which have been developed to facilitate negotiations in wetland planning and both tend to be less data-driven and more directed to play a role in participatory processes. From experiences with the development of the two decision support efforts we derive suggestions for improvement. The first tool uses spatial multi-criteria analysis techniques, to enable a structured analysis of the diversity of the water management issues. The second tool focuses on interactive design and spatial negotiation. It is concluded that application of this category of tools can be promising in early phases of decision-making. Their main contribution is to help to overcome unnecessary conflicts, to stimulate collaborative planning, to structure the problem and to provide insight in values and preferences of stakeholders involved. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

This paper summarises contributions made by the ELOISE cluster of research projects to our understanding of European coastal habitat dynamics. ‘Habitat’ is used as the key concept defining Europe's coastal ecosystems following the European Community, which uses ‘habitat’ as formal currency in its directives on water and nature use, management and conservation. Eight aggregate habitat categories are identified: cliffs, shingle beaches, and associated kelp beds; dune complexes with freshwater wetlands; salt marsh; sandbanks and mudflats; seagrass beds, lagoons; subtidal sediments, and open sea pelagic. We distinguish between dynamics ‘within’ and ‘between’ habitats. The former tend to be coupled to physical forcing. The latter concern transitions from one habitat to another. Both types have been charted for the eight habitat categories. The Drivers – Pressures – State – Impact – Response framework is used to review the possible impact on habitat of foreseen future changes in key drivers and pressur...

Wetlands are highly productive ecosystems, providing a number of goods and services that are of value to people. The open-access nature and the public-good characteristics of wetlands often result in these regions being undervalued in decisions relating to their use and conservation. There is now a substantial literature on wetland valuation, including two meta-analyses that examine subsets of the available wetland valuation literature. We collected over 190 wetland valuation studies, providing 215 value observations, in order to present a more comprehensive meta-analysis of the valuation literature that includes tropical wetlands (e.g., mangroves), estimates from diverse valuation methodologies, and a broader range of wetland services (e.g., biodiversity value). We also aim for a more comprehensive geographical coverage. We find that socio-economic variables, such as income and population density, that are often omitted from such analyses are important in explaining wetland value. We also assess the prospects for using this analysis for out-of-sample value transfer, and find average transfer errors of 74%, with just under one-fifth of the transfers showing errors of 10% or less. © Springer 2006.

[1] More frequent western atmospheric circulation over Europe results in increased precipitation in winter, and could result in increasing river discharges. We made a quantitative assessment of the impact of variation in atmospheric circulation, defined by the frequency of western circulation in the Groswetterlagen classification system and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, on variation in basin-average precipitation and winter discharges (December–February) of eleven large river basins that drain northwest Europe. Annual winter discharges amounts are highly correlated among these rivers (up to r2 = 0.82, decreasing with increasing inter-basin distance), which may point to a common atmospheric forcing. The number of days of western atmospheric circulation in winter as indicated by the Groswetterlagen classification system is more closely related (r2 = 0.06 to r2 = 0.28, p < 0.05 or better) to winter river discharges than the NAO index. We therefore conclude that the frequency of western atmospheric circulation over Europe is a better indicator of climate variability and climate change impacts on river discharges in northwest Europe.

Grain and extent of spatially explicit studies in landscape ecology and spatial economics have been reviewed in an assessment of differences between these two disciplines and possibilities for integration. In the latter field, (1) such papers were substantially less frequently found, and (2) median study area grains as well as extents were higher. We found no evidence of a different definition of spatial scale, but did find major differences between the two fields in embedding in theory (well-developed in spatial economy) and spatial realism (better in landscape ecology). Where studies integrated both fields, matching of the spatial scales was generally imposed by the data bases available and kept implicit in the derivation of research aims. In multidisciplinary environmental assessment, explicit matching of scales is often neglected. We evaluate three possible approaches to guide this matching exercise, and conclude that a local compromise for a specific landscape is probably the best achievable. We found no evidence for the existence of a limited set of convergent and globally overarching spatial scales that is of practical use. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The authors developed a dynamic model to investigate the effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) increase on plant growth in freshwater ecosystems. Steady-state simulations were performed to analyze the response of phytoplankton and submerged macrophytes to atmospheric CO2 elevation from 350 to 700 ppm. The authors studied various conditions that may affect this response, such as alkalinity, the air–water exchange rate of CO2, the community respiration rate, and the phosphorus (P) supply rateWe developed a dynamic model to investigate the effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) increase on plant growth in freshwater ecosystems. Steady-state simulations were performed to analyze the response of phytoplankton and submerged macrophytes to atmospheric CO2 elevation from 350 to 700 ppm. We studied various conditions that may affect this response, such as alkalinity, the air-water exchange rate of CO2, the community respiration rate, and the phosphorus (P) supply rate. The increase in atmospheric CO2 could affect submerged plant growth only under relatively eutrophic conditions and at a low community respiration rate. Alkalinity had little effect on the response of the different species. When the air-water exchange was low, the proportional effect of the CO2 increase on plant growth was higher. Under eutrophic conditions, algae and macrophytes using CO2 and HCO3- may double their growth rate due to atmospheric CO2 elevation, while the growth of macrophytes restricted to CO2 assimilation may be threefold. The differences in response of the species under various conditions indicate that the elevation of atmospheric CO2 may induce drastic changes in the productivity and species dominance in freshwater systems.

Este artículo contiene 11 páginas, 5 figuras, 1 tablas, Seasonality and depth zonation of two common intertidal northern Vietnamese seagrass species, Halophila ovalis and Zostera japonica, were investigated in a 50 m long intertidal transect from 1999 till 2001. Z. japonica occurred in the middle intertidal (1.2 m above mean chart datum to mean sea level at 2.1 m above chart datum). H. ovalis occurred deeper in the intertidal (between 1.0 and 1.4 m above chart datum). Based on seasonally different sensitivity to reciprocal transplants, it is concluded that this zonation is most likely due to different tolerances to low light availability (less in Z. japonica) and desiccation (less in H. ovalis). Both species reached maximum shoot densities in September-October with total biomasses around 70 g DW m-2. Flowering in Z. japonica occurred in April only, whilst H. ovalis flowered in November after the rainy season and again in April. Seasonality in density and biomass was apparent and similar between the two species. It was largely coupled to the rainy season, which brings spates of turbid water during May-August, thereby possibly limiting light availability and hence growth., This work was funded by the INCO-DEV program of the European Commission (project ERBIC18CT980292, acronymed PREDICT).We thank the PREDICT partners for the good working spirits.

We report the absence of a persistent seed bank in Thalassia hemprichii in NW Philippine seagrass beds. The survival of buried seeds was assessed experimentally since such a capacity is a prerequisite for the formation of seed bank. We found a rapid germination of non-dormant seeds and development into seedlings. Such seedlings could not survive under buried conditions (5 and 10 cm) for longer than a week.

The influence of variable bicarbonate (HCO 3 − ) alkalinity was assessed on the photosynthetic performance of four submerged macrophyte species of contrasting growth form and distribution but all reportedly capable of HCO3 − use: Hydrilla verticillata, Egeria densa, Potamogeton schweinfurthii and Potamogeton lucens. Whole-shoot photosynthesis–irradiance curves and pH-drift capacity were measured at two alkalinities, a low and a high concentration (0.5 and 2.0 meq l −1 HCO3 − ). E. densa, H. verticillata and P. lucens had higher gross maximum photosynthesis (Pmax) and respiration rates at the higher HCO3 − availability. The species also differed significantly in Pmax and respiration for both alkalinities, with Pmax estimates ranging between 3 and 22 mg O2 g AFDW −1 h −1 . Half-saturation constant estimates ( K1/2) did not differ between species or treatments, but were comparatively low (