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Background: In a 2018 descriptive study, cancer incidence in children (age 0–19) in diagnosis years 2003 to 2014 was reported as being highest in New Hampshire and in the Northeast region. Methods: Using the Cancer in North America (CiNA) analytic file, we tested the hypotheses that incidence rates in the Northeast were higher than those in other regions of the United States either overall or by race/ethnicity group, and that rates in New Hampshire were higher than the Northeast region as a whole. Results: In 2003 to 2014, pediatric cancer incidence was significantly higher in the Northeast than other regions of the United States overall and among non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks, but not among Hispanics and other racial minorities. However, there was no significant variability in incidence in the states within the Northeast overall or by race/ethnicity subgroup. Overall, statistically significantly higher incidence was seen in the Northeast for lymphomas [RR, 1.15; 99% confidence interval (CI), 1.10–1.19], central nervous system neoplasms (RR, 1.12; 99% CI, 1.07–1.16), and neuroblastoma (RR, 1.13; 99% CI, 1.05–1.21). Conclusions: Pediatric cancer incidence is statistically significantly higher in the Northeast than in the rest of the United States, but within the Northeast, states have comparable incidence. Differences in cancer subtypes by ethnicity merit further investigation. Impact: Our analyses clarify and extend previous reports by statistically confirming the hypothesis that the Northeast has the highest pediatric cancer rates in the country, by providing similar comparisons stratified by race/ethnicity, and by assessing variability within the Northeast.

Despite substantial observational and experimental evidence that aspirin use can provide protection against the development of colorectal neoplasia, our understanding of the molecular mechanisms involved is inadequate and limits our ability to use this drug effectively and safely for chemoprevention. We employed an untargeted plasma metabolomics approach using liquid chromatography with high-resolution mass spectroscopy to explore novel metabolites that may contribute to the chemopreventive effects of aspirin. Associations between levels of metabolic features in plasma and aspirin treatment were investigated among 523 participants in a randomized placebo-controlled clinical trial of two doses of aspirin (81 or 325 mg/day) and were linked to risk of colorectal adenoma occurrence over 3 years of follow-up. Metabolic pathways that were altered with aspirin treatment included linoleate and glycerophospholipid metabolism for the 81-mg dose and carnitine shuttle for both doses. Metabolites whose levels increased with 81 mg/day aspirin treatment and were also associated with decreased risk of adenomas during follow-up included certain forms of lysophosphatidylcholine and lysophosphatidylethanolamine as well as trihydroxyoctadecenoic acid, which is a derivative of linoleic acid and is upstream of cyclooxygenase inhibition by aspirin in the linoleate and arachidonic acid metabolism pathways. In conclusion, our findings regarding lysophospholipids and metabolites in the linoleate metabolism pathway may provide novel insights into the chemopreventive effects of aspirin in the colorectum, although they should be considered hypothesis-generating at this time. Prevention Relevance: This research used metabolomics, an innovative discovery-based approach, to identify molecular changes in human blood that may help to explain how aspirin use reduces the risk of colorectal neoplasia in some individuals. Ultimately, this work could have important implications for optimizing aspirin use in the prevention of colorectal cancer.

In a randomized trial of folic acid supplementation for the prevention of colorectal adenomas, we previously found indications of increased risk during later treatment and follow-up. This could have been due to the unmetabolized folic acid (UFA) or natural reduced and methylated folates (mF) to which it is metabolized. In post hoc analyses, we measured mF (the sum of 5-methyl-tetrahydrofolate and 4-alfa-hydroxy-5-methyl-THF) and UFA concentrations in the serum of 924 participants. Using binomial regression models with a log link, we assessed the associations between plasma mF or UFA and adenoma occurrence. We found no association between plasma mF or UFA and overall adenoma risk. However, during later follow-up, the prespecified, composite endpoint of high-risk findings (advanced or multiple adenomas) was positively associated with plasma mF (Plinear trend = 0.009), with a 58% increased risk for participants in the upper versus lowest quartile. An irregular association was seen with plasma UFA, with suggestions of an inverse trend (Plinear trend=0.049). A modest, significant inverse association was also seen between mF and risk of serrated lesions, with a 39% lower risk for upper versus lower quartile participants (Plinear trend = 0.03). In conclusion, during the later follow-up period in which folic acid supplementation was previously seen to increase the risk of advanced and multiple adenomas, higher serum mF was associated with a higher risk of multiple and/or advanced adenomas, but no clear indication that UFA played a direct role. There were indications that higher mF was associated with reduced risk of serrated polyps. Cancer Prev Res; 10(8); 451–8. ©2017 AACR.

Additional analyses of folate and adenoma outcomes.

Table S1 shows metabolic features with confirmed or putative identities.

Supplementary Table from Plasma Metabolomics Analysis of Aspirin Treatment and Risk of Colorectal Adenomas

Supplementary Figure from Plasma Metabolomics Analysis of Aspirin Treatment and Risk of Colorectal Adenomas

Figure S1 shows changes in aspirin catabolite intensities between baseline and year 3 blood plasma samples.

To examine changes in lung function over time in extremely prematurely born adolescents.Changes in lung function during adolescence would vary by ventilation mode immediately after birth.Longitudinal follow-up study.Participants from the United Kingdom Oscillation Study who were randomized at birth to high-frequency oscillation (HFO) or conventional ventilation (CV) were assessed at 11-14 years (n = 319) and at 16-19 years (n = 159).Forced expiratory flow (FEF), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and lung volumes including functional residual capacity (FRC) were reported as z-scores. The diffusion capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLCO) was measured. Lung function trajectories were compared by mode of ventilation using mixed models. Changes in z-scores were scaled to 5-year average follow-up.There were significant changes in the mean FEF75, FEF50, FEF25, FEV1, FVC, and DLCO z-scores within the CV and HFO cohorts, but no significant differences in the changes between the two groups. The mean FRC z-score increased in both groups, with an average change of greater than one z-score. The mean FEV1/FVC z-score increased significantly in the CV group, but not in the HFO group (difference in slopes: p = 0.02). Across the population, deterioration in lung function was associated with male sex, white ethnicity, lower gestational age at birth, postnatal corticosteroids, oxygen dependency at 36 weeks postmenstrual age, and lower birth weight, but not ventilation mode.There was little evidence that the mode of ventilation affected changes in lung function over time.

Summary Background Stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy (SABR) is increasingly being used to treat oligometastatic cancers, but high-level evidence to provide a basis for policy making is scarce. Additional evidence from a real-world setting is required. We present the results of a national study of patients with extracranial oligometastases undergoing SABR, representing the largest dataset, to our knowledge, on outcomes in this population so far. Methods In 2015, National Health Service (NHS) England launched a Commissioning through Evaluation scheme that funded a prospective, registry-based, single-arm, observational, evaluation study of patients with solid cancer and extracranial oligometastases treated with SABR. Prescribed doses ranged from 24–60 Gy administered in three to eight fractions. The study was done at 17 NHS radiotherapy centres in England. Patients were eligible for the scheme if aged 18 years or older with confirmed primary carcinoma (excluding haematological malignancies), one to three extracranial metastatic lesions, a disease-free interval from primary tumour development to metastases of longer than 6 months (with the exception of synchronous colorectal liver metastases), a WHO performance status of 2 or lower, and a life expectancy of at least 6 months. The primary outcome was overall survival at 1 year and 2 years from the start of SABR treatment. The study is now completed. Findings Between June 15, 2015, and Jan 30, 2019, 1422 patients were recruited from 17 hospitals in England. The median age of the patients was 69 years (IQR 62–76), and the most common primary tumour was prostate cancer (406 [28·6%] patients). Median follow-up was 13 months (IQR 6–23). Overall survival was 92·3% (95% CI 90·5–93·9) at 1 year and 79·2% (76·0–82·1) at 2 years. The most common grade 3 adverse event was fatigue (28 [2·0%] of 1422 patients) and the most common serious (grade 4) event was increased liver enzymes (nine [0·6%]). Notreatment-related deaths were reported. Interpretation In patients with extracranial oligometastatic cancer, use of SABR was associated with high overall survival and low toxicity. ’The study findings complement existing evidence from a randomised, phase 2 trial, and represent high-level, real-world evidence supporting the use of SABR in this patient cohort, with a phase 3 randomised, controlled trial to confirm these findings underway. Based on the selection criteria in this study, SABR was commissioned by NHS England in March, 2020, as a treatment option for patients with oligometastatic disease. Funding NHS England Commissioning through Evaluation scheme.

BACKGROUND Hard domestic water has been reported to worsen atopic eczema (AE) and may contribute to its development in early life. OBJECTIVE To review the literature on the relationship between the effect of water hardness (high calcium carbonate; CaCO3 ) on (a) the risk of developing AE, (b) the treatment of existing AE and (c) skin barrier function in human and animal studies. DESIGN , DATA SOURCES AND ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA We systematically searched databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane CENTRAL, GREAT and Web of Science) from inception until 30/6/2020. Human and animal observational and experimental studies were included. The primary outcomes were risk of AE and skin barrier function. Studies were meta-analysed using a random effects model. Evidence certainty was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. RESULTS Sixteen studies were included. Pooled observational data from seven studies on 385,901 participants identified increased odds of AE in children exposed to harder versus softer water (odds ratio 1.28, 95% CI 1.09, 1.50; GRADE certainty: very low). Two mechanistic studies in humans reported higher deposition of the detergent sodium lauryl sulphate in those exposed to harder versus softer water. Two randomized controlled trials comparing water softeners with standard care did not show a significant difference in objective AE severity with softened water (standardized mean difference 0.06 standard deviations higher, 95% CI 0.16 lower to 0.27 higher; GRADE certainty: moderate). CONCLUSIONS & CLINICAL RELEVANCE There was a positive association between living in a hard water (range: 76 to > 350 mg/L CaCO3 ) area and AE in children. There is no evidence that domestic water softeners improve objective disease severity in established AE. There may be a role of water hardness in the initiation of skin inflammation in early life, but there is a need for further longitudinal and interventional studies.

Introduction and motivationMany health studies measure a continuous outcome and compare means between groups. Since means for biological data are often difficult to interpret clinically, it is common to dichotomise using a cut-point and present the ‘percentage abnormal’ alongside or in place of means. Examples include birthweight where ‘abnormal’ is defined as 140 mm Hg (high blood pressure) and lung function with varying definitions of the ‘limit of normal’. In vulnerable populations with low means, for example, birthweight in a population of preterm babies, a given difference in means between two groups will represent a larger difference in the percentage with low birthweight than in a general population of babies where most will be full term. Thus, in general, the difference in percentage of patients with abnormal values for a given difference in means varies according to the reference population’s mean value. This phenomenon leads to challenges in interpreting differences in means in vulnerable populations and in defining an outcome-specific minimal clinically important difference (MCID) in means since the proportion abnormal, which is useful in interpreting means, is not constant—it varies with the population mean. This has relevance for study power calculations and data analyses in vulnerable populations where a small observed difference in means may be difficult to interpret clinically and may be disregarded, even if associated with a relatively large difference in percentage abnormal which is clinically relevant.MethodsTo address these issues, we suggest both difference in means and difference in percentage (proportion) abnormal are considered when choosing the MCID, and that both means and percentages abnormal are reported when analysing the data.ConclusionsWe describe a distributional approach to analyse proportions classified as abnormal that avoids the usual loss of precision and power associated with dichotomisation.

Item does not contain fulltext OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the associations of depressive symptoms and antidepressant use during pregnancy with the risks of preterm birth, low birth weight, small for gestational age (SGA), and low Apgar scores. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, EMBASE, ClinicalTrials.gov, and PsycINFO up to June 2016. METHODS OF STUDY SELECTION: Data were sought from studies examining associations of depression, depressive symptoms, or use of antidepressants during pregnancy with gestational age, birth weight, SGA, or Apgar scores. Authors shared the raw data of their studies for incorporation into this individual participant data meta-analysis. TABULATION, INTEGRATION, AND RESULTS: We performed one-stage random-effects meta-analyses to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs. The 215 eligible articles resulted in 402,375 women derived from 27 study databases. Increased risks were observed for preterm birth among women with a clinical diagnosis of depression during pregnancy irrespective of antidepressant use (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2-2.1) and among women with depression who did not use antidepressants (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.7-3.0), as well as for low Apgar scores in the former (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.3-1.7), but not the latter group. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) use was associated with preterm birth among women who used antidepressants with or without restriction to women with depressive symptoms or a diagnosis of depression (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.0-2.5 and OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.2-2.8, respectively), as well as with low Apgar scores among women in the latter group (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.8). CONCLUSION: Depressive symptoms or a clinical diagnosis of depression during pregnancy are associated with preterm birth and low Apgar scores, even without exposure to antidepressants. However, SSRIs may be independently associated with preterm birth and low Apgar scores. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO, CRD42016035711.

Background Reliable vascular access is essential for patients receiving haemodialysis. An arteriovenous fistula is the preferred option; however, these are prone to developing stenotic segments. These lesions are treated with angioplasty, but there is a high rate of recurrence. When the PAVE (Paclitaxel-assisted balloon Angioplasty of Venous stenosis in haEmodialysis access) trial was conceived, a number of small studies suggested that restenosis may be reduced by paclitaxel-coated balloons. Objective To test the efficacy of paclitaxel-coated balloons in arteriovenous fistulas. Design A randomised controlled trial. Setting Twenty UK centres. Participants Patients (aged ≥ 18 years) referred with a clinical indication for angioplasty of an arteriovenous fistula (212 patients in total, 106 per group). Interventions High-pressure plain balloon fistuloplasty was performed in all patients. In the intervention arm, the second component was insertion of a paclitaxel-coated balloon. In the control arm, an identical procedure was followed, but using a standard balloon. Main outcome measures The primary end point was time (days) to loss of target lesion primary patency. Secondary patency end points were time to loss of access circuit primary patency and time to loss of access circuit cumulative patency. Other secondary end points included angiographically determined late lumen loss, rate of binary angiographic restenosis, procedural success, number of thrombosis events, fistula interventions, adverse events during follow-up and patient quality of life. Results Primary analysis showed no evidence for a difference in time to end of target lesion primary patency between groups (hazard ratio 1.18, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.79; p = 0.440). An adjusted secondary analysis with prespecified clinical covariates gave similar results (hazard ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.78; p = 0.664). Prespecified secondary outcomes included the time to intervention anywhere in the access circuit or the time until the fistula was abandoned. There were no differences in these patency-related secondary outcomes or in any other secondary outcomes, such as adverse events. Limitations The PAVE trial was not a fully blinded trial. It was impossible to ensure that treating radiologists were blinded to treatment allocation because of the appearance of the paclitaxel-coated balloon. The extent to which our findings can be generalised to patients with multiple lesions could be questioned, given the proportion randomised. However, if paclitaxel-coated balloons had been effective at a single lesion segment, then there is no plausible reason why they could not be effective in patients with multiple lesions. Conclusions There were no differences in primary or secondary outcomes. Following a plain balloon angioplasty, additional treatment with a paclitaxel-coated balloon does not provide benefit. Future work The reasons for differences between the results of the PAVE trial and of other studies deserve further analysis and consideration. Other interventions to prevent restenosis following a fistuloplasty are needed. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN14284759. Funding This project was funded by the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation programme, a Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) partnership. This will be published in full in Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation; Vol. 8, No. 13. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Aim People of Black African ancestry, who are known to be at disproportionately high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), typically exhibit lower hepatic insulin clearance compared with White Europeans. However, the mechanisms underlying this metabolic characteristic are poorly understood. We explored whether low insulin clearance in Black African (BA) men could be explained by insulin resistance, subclinical inflammation or adiponectin concentrations. Methods BA and White European (WE) men, categorised as either normal glucose tolerant (NGT) or with T2D, were recruited to undergo the following: a mixed meal tolerance test with C-peptide modelling to determine endogenous insulin clearance; fasting serum adiponectin and cytokine profiles; a hyperinsulinaemic–euglycaemic clamp to measure whole-body insulin sensitivity; and magnetic resonance imaging to quantify visceral adipose tissue. Results Forty BA (20 NGT and 20 T2D) and 41 WE (23 NGT and 18 T2D) men were studied. BA men had significantly lower insulin clearance (P = 0.011) and lower plasma adiponectin (P = 0.031) compared with WE men. In multiple regression analysis, ethnicity, insulin sensitivity and plasma adiponectin were independent predictors of insulin clearance, while age, visceral adiposity and tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) did not significantly contribute to the variation. Conclusion These data suggest that adiponectin may play a direct role in the upregulation of insulin clearance beyond its insulin-sensitising properties.

The role of paclitaxel-coated balloons has been established in the coronary and peripheral arterial circulations with recent interest in the use of paclitaxel-coated balloons to improve patency rates following angioplasty of arteriovenous fistulas. To assess the efficacy of paclitaxel-coated angioplasty balloons to prolong the survival time of target lesion primary patency in arteriovenous fistulas, we designed an investigator-led multi-center randomized controlled trial with follow up time variable for a minimum of one year. Patients with an arteriovenous fistula who were undergoing an angioplasty for a clinical indication were included but patients with one or more lesions outside the treatment segment were excluded. Following successful treatment with a high-pressure balloon, 212 patients were randomized. In the intervention arm, the second component was insertion of a paclitaxel-coated balloon. In the control arm, an identical procedure was followed, but using a standard balloon. The primary endpoint was time to loss of clinically driven target lesion primary patency. Primary analysis showed no significant evidence for a difference in time to end of target lesion primary patency between groups: hazard ratio 1.18 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.78 to 1.79. There were no significant differences for any secondary outcomes, including patency outcomes and adverse events. Thus, our study demonstrated no evidence that paclitaxel-coated balloons provide benefit, following standard care high-pressure balloon angioplasty, in the treatment of arteriovenous fistulas. Hence, in view of the benefit suggested by other trials, the role of paclitaxel-coated angioplasty balloons remains uncertain.

Lung Function after High-Frequency Oscillation in Neonates Unlike the results published in 2014, these new data show no significant differences in lung function or behavioral outcomes in late adole...

Background Existing evidence identifies health benefits for children of additional daily physical activity (PA) on a range of cardiovascular and metabolic outcomes. The Daily Mile (TDM) is a popular scheme designed to increase children’s PA within the school day. Emerging evidence indicates that participation in TDM can increase children’s PA, reduce sedentarism and reduce skinfold measures. However, little is known about the potential effects of TDM as a public health intervention, and the benefits and disbenefits that might flow from wider implementation in ‘real world’ settings. Methods We aimed to identify how TDM is being implemented in a naturalistic setting, and what implications this has for its potential impact on population health. We undertook a rapid ethnographic assessment of uptake and implementation in Lewisham, south London. Data included interviews (n = 22) and focus groups (n = 11) with stakeholders; observations of implementation in 12 classes; and analysis of routine data sources to identify school level factors associated with uptake. Results Of the 69 primary schools in one borough, 33 (48%) had adopted TDM by September 2018. There were no significant differences between adopters and non-adopters in mean school population size (means 377 vs 397, P = 0.70), mean percentage of children eligible for free school meals (16.2 vs 14.3%, P = 0.39), or mean percentage of children from Black and Minority Ethnic populations (76.3 vs 78.2%, P = 0.41). Addressing obesity was a key incentive for adoption, although a range of health and educational benefits were also hypothesised to accrue from participation. Mapping TDM to the TIDierR-PHP checklist to describe the intervention in practice identified that considerable adaption happened at the level of borough, school, class and pupil. Population health effects are likely to be influenced by the interaction of intervention and context at each of these levels. Conclusions Examining TDM in ‘real world’ settings surfaces adaptions and variations in implementation. This has implications for the likely effects of TDM, and points more broadly to an urgent need for more appropriate methods for evaluating public health impact and implementation in complex contexts. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7511-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Chronic rejection is the single biggest cause of premature kidney graft failure. HLA antibodies (Ab) are an established prognostic biomarker for premature graft failure so there is a need to test whether treatment decisions based on the presence of the biomarker can alter prognosis. The Optimised TacrolimuS and MMF for HLA Antibodies after Renal Transplantation (OuTSMART) trial combines two elements. Firstly, testing whether a routine screening programme for HLA Ab in all kidney transplant recipients is useful by comparing blinding versus unblinding of HLA Ab status. Secondly, for those found to be HLA Ab+, testing whether the introduction of a standard optimisation treatment protocol can reduce graft failure rates. OuTSMART is a prospective, open-labelled, randomised biomarker-based strategy (hybrid) trial, with two arms stratified by biomarker (HLA Ab) status. The primary outcome was amended from graft failure rates at 3 years to time to graft failure to increase power and require fewer participants to be recruited. Length of follow-up subsequently is variable, with all participants followed up for at least 43 months up to a maximum of 89 months. The primary outcome will be analysed using Cox regression adjusting for stratification factors. Analyses will be according to the intention-to-treat using all participants as randomised. Outcomes will be analysed comparing standard care versus biomarker-led care groups within the HLA Ab+ participants (including those who become HLA Ab+ through re-screening) as well as between HLA-Ab-unblinded and HLA-Ab-blinded groups using all participants. Changes to the primary outcome permit recruitment of fewer participants to achieve the same statistical power. Pre-stating the statistical analysis plan guards against changes to the analysis methods at the point of analysis that might otherwise introduce bias through knowledge of the data. Any deviations from the analysis plan will be justified in the final report. ISRCTN registry, ID: ISRCTN46157828 . Registered on 26 March 2013; EudraCT 2012–004308-36 . Registered on 10 December 2012.

Background: Selective dorsal rhizotomy (SDR) is an irreversible surgical procedure involving the division of selected sensory nerve roots, followed by intensive physiotherapy. The aim is to improve function and quality of life in children with cerebral palsy and a Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level of II or III (walks with or without assistive devices, respectively). We assessed gross motor function before and after SDR and postoperative quality of life in a study commissioned by NHS England. Methods: We did a prospective observational study in five hospitals in England who were commissioned to perform SDR on children aged 3–9 years with spastic diplegic cerebral palsy. The primary outcome was score changes in the 66-item Gross Motor Function Measure (GMFM-66) and seven domains of the Cerebral Palsy Quality of Life Questionnaire ([CP-QoL] social wellbeing and acceptance, feelings about functioning, participation and physical health, emotional wellbeing and self-esteem, access to services, family health, and pain and impact of disability) from before to 24 months after SDR. Findings: From Sept 4, 2014, to March 21, 2016, 137 children underwent SDR. The mean age was 6·0 years (SD 1·8). The mean GMFM-66 score increased after SDR with an annual change of 3·2 units (95% CI 2·9 to 3·5, n=137). Of the seven CP-QoL domains, five showed significant improvements over time: feelings about functioning mean annual change 3·0 units (95% CI 2·0 to 4·0, n=133), participation and physical health 3·9 units (2·5 to 5·3, n=133), emotional wellbeing and self-esteem 1·3 units (0·2 to 2·3, n=133), family health 2·0 units (0·7 to 3·3, n=132), and pain and impact of disability −2·5 units (−3·9 to −1·2, n=133). 17 adverse events were reported in 15 children, of which none were severe and 15 (88%) resolved. Interpretation: SDR improved function and quality of life in the 24 months after surgery in children with cerebral palsy classified as GMFCS levels II and III. On the basis of these findings, an interim national policy decision was made that SDR would be funded for eligible children in England from 2018. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, NHS England.

Intrahepatic lipid (IHL) is linked with reduced hepatic insulin sensitivity and insulin clearance. Despite their high risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D), there have been limited investigations of these relationships in black populations. We investigated these relationships in 18 white European (WE) and 18 black West African (BWA) men with T2D

AIMS We aimed to assess ethnic differences in inflammatory markers and their relationships with insulin sensitivity and regional adiposity between white European and black African men. METHODS A total of 53 white European and 53 black African men underwent assessment of inflammatory markers alongside Dixon-magnetic resonance imaging to quantify subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue and intrahepatic lipid. A hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp was used to measure whole-body and adipose tissue insulin sensitivity. To assess ethnic differences in relationships, the statistical significance of an interaction term between adipokines and ethnic group was tested in multivariable regression models. RESULTS The black African men exhibited significantly lower adiponectin and tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and greater interleukin-10 (IL-10) compared to white European men (all p

OBJECTIVES To assess if intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) was associated with reduced lung function at 16-19 years. WORKING HYPOTHESIS Very prematurely born young people who had IUGR would have reduced lung function postpuberty. STUDY DESIGN Prospective follow-up study. PATIENT-SUBJECT SELECTION One hundred and fifty-nine 16-19 year olds born before 29 weeks of gestation; 37 had IUGR. METHODOLOGY Lung function tests were performed: spirometry was used to assess forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), forced expiratory flow at 75%, 50% and 25% of expired vital capacity (FEF75, FEF50 and FEF25), peak expiratory flow (PEF) and forced vital capacity (FVC). Functional residual capacity (FRCpleth) total lung capacity (TLCpleth) and residual volume (RVpleth) were measured. Alveolar function was assessed by diffusion capacity within the lungs of carbon monoxide (DLCO). Impulse oscillometry was used to assess respiratory resistance and lung clearance index to assess ventilation homogeneity. Exercise capacity was assessed using a shuttle sprint test. RESULTS After adjustment for BMI, the mean FEV-1/FVC, FEF75, FEF25-75, FRCpleth and RVpleth were poorer in those who had had IUGR, with differences between 0.56 and 0.75 z-scores. After further adjustment for BPD and postnatal corticosteroid use, only the difference in RVpleth z-scores remained statistically significant, adjusted difference (95% CI): 0.66 (0.18,1.13). Exercise capacity was lower in those with IUGR and this was more pronounced in males (p=0.04). CONCLUSIONS At 16-19 years of age, those who had IUGR had poorer lung function and exercise capacity compared with those with adequate intrauterine growth.

ObjectivesTo evaluate the cost, accessibility and patient satisfaction implications of two clinical pathways used in the management of chronic headache.InterventionManagement of chronic headache following referral from Primary Care that differed in the first appointment, either a Neurology appointment or an MRI brain scan.Design and settingA pragmatic, non-randomised, prospective, single-centre study at a Central Hospital in London.ParticipantsAdult patients with chronic headache referred from primary to secondary care.Primary and secondary outcome measuresParticipants’ use of healthcare services and costs were estimated using primary and secondary care databases and questionnaires quarterly up to 12 months postrecruitment. Cost analyses were compared using generalised linear models. Secondary outcomes assessed: access to care, patient satisfaction, headache burden and self-perceived quality of life using headache-specific (Migraine Disability Assessment Scale and Headache Impact Test) and a generic questionnaire (5-level EQ-5D).ResultsMean (SD) cost up to 6 months postrecruitment per participant was £578 (£420) for the Neurology group (n=128) and £245 (£172) for the MRI group (n=95), leading to an estimated mean cost difference of £333 (95% CI £253 to £413, pConclusionDirect referral to brain MRI from Primary Care led to cost-savings and quicker access to care but lower satisfaction levels when compared with referral to Neurology services. Further research into the use of brain MRI for a subset of patient population more likely to be reassured by a negative brain scan should be considered.Trial registration numberNCT02753933.

Background Poor intrauterine growth has been shown to result in increased morbidity in infancy. Our aim was to examine the effect of intrauterine growth retardation on the lung function of prematurely born young people routinely exposed to antenatal steroids and postnatal surfactant. Methods Lung function was assessed at 16–19 years of age. Forced expired volume at 1 second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory flow at 75% (FEF75), lung volumes by plethysmography, diffusion capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLCO/VA) measurements were taken and converted to z scores based on sex and height. A birthweight Results One hundred and fifty-eight young people were assessed, 37 were SGA: Conclusion Intrauterine growth retardation was associated with impaired airway and alveolar function at 16–19 years.

Background: The mode of delivery has been shown to influence the early immune system of infants, possibly via the Galectin 3 and CD98 pathway. Little is known as to whether this may lead to long term differences in lung function of those born prematurely. Aim: To determine if the lung function of young people born very prematurely differed according to mode of delivery. Methods: 162 young people aged 16-19 years and born at less than 29 weeks were assessed. Measurements included spirometry, plethysmography, lung clearance index and a shuttle run test. Lung function was converted to z scores. Regression analysis was used to adjust for differences in birthweight, gestational age and birthweight z scores between the two groups. Results: Small airway function was better in those vaginally delivered (FEF75 -0.82, SD 1.30 versus -1.78, SD 1.17, p=0.009). Other markers of airway function were also better (FEF50 -0.82, SD 1.10 versus -1.22, SD 0.96, p=0.008), (FEF25 -0.45, SD 1.68 versus -0.88, SD 1.10, p=0.013), FEF25-75 -1.24, SD 1.31 versus -1.78, SD 1.17, p=0.003), (LCI 9.04, SD 1.06 versus 9.72, SD 1.64, p=0.41. FEV1 was not statistically significantly different (-0.86, SD 1.29 versus -1.22, SD 1.35, p=0.059). Lung volumes (FVC -0.21, SD 1.28 versus -0.27, SD 1.44, p=0.670) FRCpleth 0.46, SD 1.30 versus 0.90, SD 1.44, p=0.307 and exercise capacity were also not significantly different (1094m, SD 266 versus 1043, SD 214, p=0.221). Conclusion: Vaginally delivered, very prematurely born young people had superior airway function.

Objectives To determine if lung function abnormalities in young people born very prematurely routinely exposed to antenatal corticosteroids and postnatal surfactant were associated with reduced exercise capacity. Working hypothesis In the current era, lung function abnormalities would not be associated with exercise intolerance STUDY DESIGN: Follow-up of young people from the United Kingdom Oscillation study (UKOS). Patient-subject selection One hundred twenty-six young people of 797 recruited to UKOS, born at a mean gestational age of 27 weeks were assessed at a mean age of 17 years. Methodology Forced expiratory flow at 75% of the expired vital capacity (FEF75 ), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1 ) and lung volumes (forced vital capacity [FVC]) and residual volume (RV) and functional residual capacity (FRCpleth ) were assessed. Abnormal lung function was below the fifth centile and very abnormal lung function below the 2.5th centile. Exercise capacity was assessed using a modified shuttle sprint test and self-reported hours of exercise. Results Thirty-nine young people had an abnormal FEF75 with an adjusted reduction in sprint distance of 114 m (P = .018) and an adjusted difference in self-reported exercise of 0.73 hours (P = .036). Twenty-seven young people had a very abnormal FEF75 with an adjusted reduction in sprint distance of 159 m (P = .002) and adjusted reduction in self-reported exercise of 1.15 hours (P = .002). Conclusion Very prematurely born young people with abnormal airway function had a significant reduction in exercise capacity.

Aims To compare the cost-effectiveness of stereotactic ablative body radiation therapy (SABR) with radiofrequency ablation and surgery in adult patients with metastatic liver cancer and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Materials and methods Two patient cohorts were assessed: liver oligometastases and HCC. For each patient cohort, a decision analytic model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of interventions over a 5-year horizon. A Markov process was embedded in the decision model to simulate the possible prognosis of cancer. Data on transition probabilities, survival, side-effects, quality of life and costs were obtained from published sources and the SABR Commissioning through Evaluation (CtE) scheme. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio with respect to quality-adjusted life-years. The robustness of the results was examined in a sensitivity analysis. Analyses were conducted from a National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective. Results In the base case analysis, which assumed that all three interventions were associated with the same cancer progression rates and mortality rates, SABR was the most cost-effective intervention for both patient cohorts. This conclusion was sensitive to the cancer progression rate, mortality rate and cost of interventions. Assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year, the probability that SABR is cost-effective was 57% and 50% in liver oligometastases and HCC, respectively. Conclusions Our results indicate a potential for SABR to be cost-effective for patients with liver oligometastases and HCC. This finding supports further investigation in clinical trials directly comparing SABR with surgery and radiofrequency ablation.

Background Hyperbaric oxygen (HBO2)—oxygen at pressures higher than atmospheric—is approved for 14 indications by the Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society. HBO2’s main effect is to increase oxygen content in plasma and body tissues, which can counteract hypoxia or ischemia. Laboratory studies show that HBO2 has effects beyond relieving hypoxia (eg, promoting angiogenesis in irradiated tissue, anti-inflammatory effects, radiosensitization of tumors, hypoxia preconditioning, and fungal growth inhibition) and has potential to treat conditions such as inflammatory bowel disease and pyoderma gangrenosum. Lack of consistently collected outcome data on a large cohort of individuals receiving HBO2 therapy limits its use for both established and new indications. A course of therapy often involves 30-40 visits to a hyperbaric chamber, so the number of patients seen at any given center is constrained by chamber capacity. As a result, published HBO2 outcome data tend to be from small case series because few patients with a particular condition are treated at a given center. To solve this problem, a registry that collects and pools data systematically from multiple institutions has been established. Objective The aim of this study is to collect consistent outcome data across multiple hyperbaric centers to assess treatment effectiveness and establish a research consortium. Methods A consortium of hyperbaric centers who have agreed to collect consistent outcome data on all patients seen has been assembled. Data are collected at each participating center using Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap), a web-based, data collection system used frequently for research. Standard outcome measures have been defined for each condition, which are programmed into the REDCap data collection templates. Governance is through a consortium agreement that defines data security, data sharing, publications, liability, and other issues. Centers obtain Institutional Review Board (IRB) and ethics approval to participate, either from their own institutions or by relying on the IRB at the coordinating center at Dartmouth College. Dissemination will occur through a yearly report and by publications based on the data in the registry. Results Early results from some common indications show significant pretreatment to posttreatment changes. Additional indications and outcome measures are being added using the procedures outlined in the consortium agreement. Conclusions The registry collects consistent outcome information for a therapy that needs further study and a stronger evidence base. It also overcomes the challenge of collecting data from an adequate number of patients for both established and emerging indications by combining data collection from multiple centers. The data entry requirements should be within the capabilities of existing staff at any given hyperbaric center. By using REDCap, the registry can be expanded to include detailed information on particular indications and long-term follow-up on selected patients without significantly increasing the basic data entry requirements. Through the registry, a network of enrolled hyperbaric centers has been established that provides the basis for a clinical trial network. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) DERR1-10.2196/18857

BACKGROUND Hyperbaric oxygen (HBO2)—oxygen at pressures higher than atmospheric—is approved for 14 indications by the Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society. HBO2’s main effect is to increase oxygen content in plasma and body tissues, which can counteract hypoxia or ischemia. Laboratory studies show that HBO2 has effects beyond relieving hypoxia (eg, promoting angiogenesis in irradiated tissue, anti-inflammatory effects, radiosensitization of tumors, hypoxia preconditioning, and fungal growth inhibition) and has potential to treat conditions such as inflammatory bowel disease and pyoderma gangrenosum. Lack of consistently collected outcome data on a large cohort of individuals receiving HBO2 therapy limits its use for both established and new indications. A course of therapy often involves 30-40 visits to a hyperbaric chamber, so the number of patients seen at any given center is constrained by chamber capacity. As a result, published HBO2 outcome data tend to be from small case series because few patients with a particular condition are treated at a given center. To solve this problem, a registry that collects and pools data systematically from multiple institutions has been established. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to collect consistent outcome data across multiple hyperbaric centers to assess treatment effectiveness and establish a research consortium. METHODS A consortium of hyperbaric centers who have agreed to collect consistent outcome data on all patients seen has been assembled. Data are collected at each participating center using Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap), a web-based, data collection system used frequently for research. Standard outcome measures have been defined for each condition, which are programmed into the REDCap data collection templates. Governance is through a consortium agreement that defines data security, data sharing, publications, liability, and other issues. Centers obtain Institutional Review Board (IRB) and ethics approval to participate, either from their own institutions or by relying on the IRB at the coordinating center at Dartmouth College. Dissemination will occur through a yearly report and by publications based on the data in the registry. RESULTS Early results from some common indications show significant pretreatment to posttreatment changes. Additional indications and outcome measures are being added using the procedures outlined in the consortium agreement. CONCLUSIONS The registry collects consistent outcome information for a therapy that needs further study and a stronger evidence base. It also overcomes the challenge of collecting data from an adequate number of patients for both established and emerging indications by combining data collection from multiple centers. The data entry requirements should be within the capabilities of existing staff at any given hyperbaric center. By using REDCap, the registry can be expanded to include detailed information on particular indications and long-term follow-up on selected patients without significantly increasing the basic data entry requirements. Through the registry, a network of enrolled hyperbaric centers has been established that provides the basis for a clinical trial network. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT DERR1-10.2196/18857

Aim: To investigate relationships between insulin clearance, insulin secretion, hepatic fat accumulation and insulin sensitivity in black African (BA) and white European (WE) men. Methods: Twenty-three BA and twenty-three WE men with normal glucose tolerance, matched for age and body mass index, underwent a hyperglycaemic clamp to measure insulin secretion and clearance, hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp with stable glucose isotope infusion to measure whole-body and hepatic-specific insulin sensitivity, and magnetic resonance imaging to quantify intrahepatic lipid (IHL). Results: BA men had higher glucose-stimulated peripheral insulin levels (48.1 [35.5, 65.2] × 10 3 vs. 29.9 [23.3, 38.4] × 10 3 pmol L −1 × min, P =.017) and lower endogeneous insulin clearance (771.6 [227.8] vs. 1381 [534.3] mL m −2 body surface area min −1, P

This chapter gives suggestions for designing questions and questionnaires, and discusses the consequences of different question designs on the resulting statistical analyses. It also discusses different methods of data entry and handling datasets in computer packages. The importance of checking for errors in the data is highlighted with suggestions of how to do this. Finally, the role of data monitoring committees in research trials is discussed, along with the implications of ending trials early. Examples are provided throughout the chapter.

This chapter provides an overview of the contents of the handbook, adding detail about how doctors should think about statistics in the context of diagnosis, research, and appraising evidence. It includes a rationale for the importance of statistics in medicine, the importance of collaboration and consultancy to researchers and clinicians, and challenges to effective working. Ways of using the handbook for different healthcare professionals at various career stages are highlighted.

Probability and probability distributions play a central part in medical statistics. This chapter defines what is meant by probability and describes the rules by which probabilities are combined. It then describes how the use of probability leads to the concept of a probability distribution and shows how these distributions are used in medical statistics. Examples are given of the use of key distributions: the Normal distribution, the binomial distribution, and the Poisson distribution.

This chapter describes the statistical issues involved in performing meta-analyses. It discusses the sources and effects of publication bias and considers ways of correcting for it. It also discusses statistical and clinical heterogeneity and considers how these can be addressed in meta-analyses. Finally, it describes individual patient meta-analysis. Throughout, the chapter includes both trials and observational studies, discussing the challenges that each study design brings and giving examples.

Why summarize data? 174 Types of data 176 Quantitative data 178 Categorical data 180 Summarizing quantitative data 182 Calculation of mean, SD 184 Calculation of median, interquartile range 186 Geometric mean, harmonic mean, mode 188 Choosing a summary measure for quantitative data 190 Summarizing categorical data ...

Analysis of variance See One-way analysis of variance (p. 280) and Two-way analysis of variance (p. 412) Bayes’s theorem A formula that allows the reversal of conditional probabilities (see Bayes’ theorem, p. 234) Bayesian statistics A statistical approach based on Bayes’ theorem, where prior information or beliefs are combined with new data to provide estimates of unknown parameters (see ...