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Over the last decades, theoretical photochemistry has produced multiple techniques to simulate the nonadiabatic dynamics of molecules. Surprisingly, much less effort has been devoted to adequately describing the first step of a photochemical or photophysical process: photoexcitation. Here, we propose a formalism to include the effect of a laser pulse in trajectory-based nonadiabatic dynamics at the level of the initial conditions, with no additional cost. The promoted density approach (PDA) decouples the excitation from the nonadiabatic dynamics by defining a new set of initial conditions, which include an excitation time. PDA with surface hopping leads to nonadiabatic dynamics simulations in excellent agreement with quantum dynamics using an explicit laser pulse and highlights the strong impact of a laser pulse on the resulting photodynamics and the limits of the (sudden) vertical excitation. Combining PDA with trajectory-based nonadiabatic methods is possible for any arbitrary-sized molecules using a code provided in this work., Comment: SI included in the pdf. Link to PDA/PDAW code 'promdens' (and guidelines) in the SI

This work is part of a prediction challenge that invited theoretical/computational chemists to predict the photochemistry of cyclobutanone in the gas phase, excited at 200 nm by a laser pulse, and the expected signal that will be recorded during a time-resolved megaelectronvolt ultrafast electron diffraction (MeV-UED). We present here our theoretical predictions based on a combination of trajectory surface hopping with XMS-CASPT2 (for the nonadiabatic molecular dynamics) and Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD) with MP2 (for the athermal ground-state dynamics following internal conversion), coined (NA+BO)MD. The initial conditions were sampled from BOMD coupled to a quantum thermostat. Our simulations indicate that the main photoproducts after 2 ps of dynamics are CO + cyclopropane (50%), CO + propene (10%), and ethene and ketene (34%). The photoexcited cyclobutanone in its second excited electronic state S$_2$ can follow two pathways for its nonradiative decay: (i) a ring-opening in S$_2$ and a subsequent rapid decay to the ground electronic state, where the photoproducts are formed, or (ii) a transfer through a closed-ring conical intersection to S$_1$, where cyclobutanone ring opens and then funnels to the ground state. Lifetimes for the photoproduct and electronic populations were determined. We calculated a stationary MeV-UED signal [difference pair distribution function - $\Delta$PDF$(r)$] for each (interpolated) pathway as well as a time-resolved signal [$\Delta$PDF$(r,t)$ and $\Delta I/I(s,t)$] for the full swarm of (NA+BO)MD trajectories. Furthermore, our analysis provides time-independent basis functions that can be used to fit the time-dependent experimental UED signals and potentially recover the population of photoproducts. We also offer a detailed analysis of the limitations of our model and their potential impact on the predicted experimental signals.