Search

Video advertisements often show actors and influence agents consuming and enjoying products in slow motion. By prolonging depictions of influence agents’ consumption utility, slow motion cinematographic effects ostensibly enhance social proof and signal product qualities that are otherwise difficult to infer visually (e.g., pleasant tastes, smells, haptic sensations). In this research, seven studies, including an eye tracking study, a Facebook Ads field experiment, and lab and online experiments—all using real ads across diverse contexts—demonstrate that slow motion (vs. natural speed) can backfire and undercut product appeal by making the influence agent’s behavior seem more intentional and extrinsically motivated. The authors rule out several alternative explanations by showing that the effect attenuates for individuals with lower intentionality bias, is mitigated under cognitive load, and reverses when ads use nonhuman influence agents. The authors conclude by highlighting the potential for cross-pollination between visual information processing and social cognition research, particularly in contexts such as persuasion and trust, and they discuss managerial implications for visual marketing, especially on digital and social platforms.

Kinship networks are a fundamental social unit in human societies, and like social networks in general, provide social support in times of need. Here, we investigate the impact of sudden environmental shock, the Ms 7.0 2013 Ya’an earthquake, on the mobile communications patterns of local families, which we operationalize using anonymized individual-level mobile telecommunications metadata from family plan subscribers of a major carrier (N = 35,565 people). We demonstrate that families’ communications dynamics after the earthquake depended on their triadic embeddedness structure, a structural metric we propose that reflects the number of dyads in a family triad that share social ties. We find that individuals in more embedded family structures were more likely to first call other family plan members and slower in calling non-family ties immediately after the earthquake; these tendencies were stronger at higher earthquake intensity. In the weeks after the event, individuals in more embedded family structures had more reciprocal communications and contacted more social ties in their broader social network. Overall, families that are structurally more embedded displayed higher levels of intra-family coordination and mobilization of non-family social connections., Here, the authors use mobile telecom data to study communication in family networks after a natural disaster, and find that the structural configuration of families’ social tie sharing predicted their post-disaster communications dynamics.

Sudden, large-scale and diffuse human migration can amplify localized outbreaks of disease into widespread epidemics1–4. Rapid and accurate tracking of aggregate population flows may therefore be epidemiologically informative. Here we use 11,478,484 counts of mobile phone data from individuals leaving or transiting through the prefecture of Wuhan between 1 January and 24 January 2020 as they moved to 296 prefectures throughout mainland China. First, we document the efficacy of quarantine in ceasing movement. Second, we show that the distribution of population outflow from Wuhan accurately predicts the relative frequency and geographical distribution of infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) until 19 February 2020, across mainland China. Third, we develop a spatio-temporal ‘risk source’ model that leverages population flow data (which operationalize the risk that emanates from epidemic epicentres) not only to forecast the distribution of confirmed cases, but also to identify regions that have a high risk of transmission at an early stage. Fourth, we use this risk source model to statistically derive the geographical spread of COVID-19 and the growth pattern based on the population outflow from Wuhan; the model yields a benchmark trend and an index for assessing the risk of community transmission of COVID-19 over time for different locations. This approach can be used by policy-makers in any nation with available data to make rapid and accurate risk assessments and to plan the allocation of limited resources ahead of ongoing outbreaks. Modelling of population flows in China enables the forecasting of the distribution of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the identification of areas at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at an early stage.

Although vaccines are crucial for giving pandemic-stricken societies the confidence to return to socioeconomic normalcy, vaccination may also induce laxity in personal protective behaviors (e.g., handwashing, facemask use). We use the quasi-experimental context of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout across the United States to quantify the impact of different stages of personal vaccination on people’s risk perceptions, daily activities, and risk mitigation behaviors, which we measure in a three-wave national panel study (N wave-1 = 7,358, N wave-2 = 3,000, N wave-3 = 2,345) from March to June, 2021, and validate using vaccination, infection, and human mobility data. Socializing rebounded after only partial vaccination. After full vaccination, communal activities recovered; however, the propensity for protective behaviors declined. The effects were heterogenous depending on vaccination level, demographics, and infection history. We further use a utility theory framework to model risk-value trade-offs and risk-construction for different behaviors.

Does merely referencing that an object or entity has changed affect people’s attitudes and intentions toward it? This research investigates the possibility that change references spark curiosity and information seeking, which can have a positive or negative effect on people’s evaluations of a target stimulus, depending on the information environment. Seven experiments reveal that referencing that an object or entity has changed decreases perceptions of its longevity, but also sparks curiosity about it—a desire to learn more. This curiosity motivates people to seek information about the object or entity, which can enhance or depress their evaluations depending on whether that information search leads to favorable or unfavorable information. When further information is unavailable, change references appear to have a negative impact on people’s evaluations, consistent with well-established longevity biases. This research suggests that change references have an important and generalizable impact on persuasive outcomes and pinpoints the conditions surrounding and processes driving this effect.

Sudden, large-scale, and diffuse human migration can amplify localized outbreaks into pandemics. Rapid and accurate tracking of human population mobility using reliable mobile phone data could therefore be helpful for policy responses. Here, we examine mobile phone geolocation data for all 18,514,920 counts of individuals egressing or transiting through the prefecture of Wuhan, China, between January 1 and 24, 2020. First, we document the efficacy of quarantine measures in ceasing population movement.Second, we show that the distribution of population outflow from Wuhan accurately predicts the relative frequency of, and geographical distribution of, COVID-19 infections through February 12, 2020, across all of China, up to two weeks in advance. Third, we present a risk model that not only predicts confirmed cases, but also identifies high- transmission-risk locales at an early stage. Fourth, we develop a mobility-data-driven modeling framework to statistically derive the growth pattern of COVID-19 and its spread; this model can yield a benchmark trend and an index for assessing COVID-19 risk for different geographic locations (290 prefectures). Prefectures above the index’s 90% confidence interval are likely experiencing more local transmissions than imported cases; prefectures below the 90% confidence interval are controlling the spread of the virus more effectively (or, alternatively, are at greater risk of information inaccuracy). This approach can be used by policy makers in developing nations, which typically have mobile phone infrastructure but limited healthcare capabilities, to make rapid and accurate risk assessments ahead of second-wave outbreaks in order to overcome resource and logistics limitations.

Sudden, large-scale and diffuse human migration can amplify localized outbreaks of disease into widespread epidemics

Understanding how human populations naturally respond to and cope with risk is important for fields ranging from psychology to public health. We used geophysical and individual-level mobile-phone data (mobile-apps, telecommunications, and Web usage) of 157,358 victims of the 2013 Ya’an earthquake to diagnose the effects of the disaster and investigate how experiencing real risk (at different levels of intensity) changes behavior. Rather than limiting human activity, higher earthquake intensity resulted in graded increases in usage of communications apps (e.g., social networking, messaging), functional apps (e.g., informational tools), and hedonic apps (e.g., music, videos, games). Combining mobile data with a field survey ( N = 2,000) completed 1 week after the earthquake, we use an instrumental-variable approach to show that only increases in hedonic behavior reduced perceived risk. Thus, hedonic behavior could potentially serve as a population-scale coping and recovery strategy that is often missing in risk management and policy considerations.

We show that the way decision makers construct risk perceptions is systematically influenced by their level of self-control: low self-control results in greater weighting of probability and reduced weighting of consequences of negative outcomes in formulating overall threat perceptions. Seven studies demonstrate such distorted risk construction in wide-ranging risk domains. The effects hold for both chronic and manipulated levels of perceived self-control and are observed only for risks involving high personal agency (e.g., overeating, smoking, drinking). As an important implication of our results, we also demonstrate that those lower (higher) in self-control show relatively less (more) interest in products and lifestyle changes reducing consequences (e.g., a pill that heals liver damage from drinking) than those reducing likelihood of risks (e.g., a pill that prevents liver damage from drinking). We also explore several possible underlying processes for the observed effect and discuss the theoretical and managerial relevance of our findings. This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, judgment and decision making.

Consumer choice is often based on the relative visual appeal of competing products. Lay intuition, common marketing practice, and extant literature all suggest that more visual impressions help consumers distinguish products. This research shows that the opposite can occur. Rather than highlighting differences, seeing more pictures of products being compared can obfuscate perceptions, reduce distinctiveness and attractiveness of products, and increase choice uncertainty. Six experiments demonstrate that this "product-agnosia" effect is driven by shifts in the perceptual focus level of visual information processing. More visual impressions increased component-oriented and decreased gestalt-oriented perceptual focus, which undermined the distinctiveness of products distinguished on a gestalt level (e.g., by style). The effect reversed for products distinguished on a component level (e.g., by technical features). Overall, the efficacy of "showing more" depended on matching consumers' visual-processing style and the level (gestalt vs. component) at which products are differentiated.

Folk wisdom suggests playing hard to get is an effective strategy in romantic attraction. However, prior research has yielded little support for this belief. This article seeks to reconcile these contrasting views by investigating how 2 hitherto unconsidered factors, (a) the asymmetry between wanting (motivational) and liking (affective) responses and (b) the degree of psychological commitment, can determine the efficacy of playing hard to get. We propose that person B playing hard to get with person A will simultaneously increase A's wanting but decrease A's liking of B. However, such a result will only occur if A is psychologically committed to pursuing further relations with B; otherwise, playing hard to get will decrease both wanting and liking. Two studies confirm these propositions. We discuss implications for interpersonal attraction and the interplay between emotion and motivation in determining preferences.

When people seek to impress others, they often do so by highlighting individual achievements. Despite the intuitive appeal of this strategy, we demonstrate that people often prefer potential rather than achievement when evaluating others. Indeed, compared with references to achievement (e.g., "this person has won an award for his work"), references to potential (e.g., "this person could win an award for his work") appear to stimulate greater interest and processing, which can translate into more favorable reactions. This tendency creates a phenomenon whereby the potential to be good at something can be preferred over actually being good at that very same thing. We document this preference for potential in laboratory and field experiments, using targets ranging from athletes to comedians to graduate school applicants and measures ranging from salary allocations to online ad clicks to admission decisions.