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Measurements of carbon isotope variations in climate archives and isotope-enabled climate modeling advance the understanding of the carbon cycle. Perturbations in atmospheric CO2 and in its isotopic ratios (δ13C, Δ14C) are removed by different processes acting on different timescales. We investigate these differences on timescales of up to 100 000 years in pulse-release experiments with the Bern3D-LPX Earth system model of intermediate complexity and by analytical solutions from a box model. On timescales from years to many centuries, the atmospheric perturbations in CO2 and δ13CO2 are reduced by air–sea gas exchange, physical transport from the surface to the deep ocean, and by the land biosphere. Isotopic perturbations are initially removed much faster from the atmosphere than perturbations in CO2 as explained by aquatic carbonate chemistry. On multimillennial timescales, the CO2 perturbation is removed by carbonate compensation and silicate rock weathering. In contrast, the δ13C perturbation is removed by the relentless flux of organic and calcium carbonate particles buried in sediments. The associated removal rate is significantly modified by spatial δ13C gradients within the ocean, influencing the isotopic perturbation of the burial flux. Space-time variations in ocean δ13C perturbations are captured by principal components and empirical orthogonal functions. Analytical impulse response functions for atmospheric CO2 and δ13CO2 are provided. Results suggest that changes in terrestrial carbon storage were not the sole cause for the abrupt, centennial-scale CO2 and δ13CO2 variations recorded in ice during Heinrich stadials HS1 and HS4, though model and data uncertainties prevent a firm conclusion. The δ13C offset between the Penultimate Glacial Maximum and Last Glacial Maximum reconstructed for the ocean and atmosphere is most likely caused by imbalances between weathering, volcanism, and burial fluxes. Our study highlights the importance of isotopic fluxes connected to weathering–sedimentation imbalances, which so far have been often neglected on glacial–interglacial timescales.

The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is −0.36 to 0.29 ∘C, with a model ensemble mean of −0.07 ∘C, median of −0.05 ∘C, and standard deviation of 0.19 ∘C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.

Although both physical and biological marine changes are required to explain the 100 ppm lower atmospheric pCO2 of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21 ka) as compared to pre-industrial (PI) times, their exact contributions are debated. Proxies of past marine carbon cycling (such as δ13C) document these changes, and thus provide constraints for quantifying the drivers of long-term carbon cycle variability. This modelling study explores the relative roles of physical and biological changes in the ocean needed to simulate an LGM ocean in satisfactory agreement with proxy data, and here especially δ13C. We prepared a PI and LGM ocean model state (NorESM-OC) with full biogeochemistry (including the carbon isotopes δ13C and radiocarbon) and dynamic sea ice. The modelled LGM-PI differences are evaluated against a wide range of physical and biogeochemical proxy data, and show agreement for key aspects of the physical ocean state within the data uncertainties. However, the lack of a simulated increase of regenerated nutrients for the LGM indicates that additional biogeochemical changes are required to simulate an LGM ocean in agreement with proxy data. In order to examine these changes, we explore the theoretical effects of different global mean biological pump efficiencies on the simulated marine biogeochemical tracer distributions. We estimate that (besides changes in ocean circulation) an approximate doubling of the global mean biological pump efficiency from 38 % (PI) to 75 % (LGM) reduces model-proxy biases the most. The remaining absolute model-proxy error in δ13C (which is 0.07 ‰ larger than the 0.19 ‰ data uncertainty) indicates that additional changes in ocean dynamics are needed to simulate an LGM ocean in agreement with proxy data, such as increased aging or volume of Southern Source Waters. Besides that, our theoretical approach of increasing the biological pump efficiency may be too simplified to capture the vertical redistribution of regenerated nutrients – also suggested by a too weak chemocline. Our results underline that only those coupled climate models that contain the processes and/or components that realistically change both ocean circulation and biogeochemistry will be able to simulate an LGM ocean in satisfactory agreement with proxy data – and hence be reliable for use in climate projections. Therefore, future research should aim to identify the exact physical and biogeochemical processes that could have doubled the global mean biological pump efficiency (i.e., the interior regenerated signature) between the PI and LGM, with a likely central role for Southern Source Waters.

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere is part of all emission scenarios of the IPCC that limit global warming to below 1.5 °C. Here, we investigate hysteresis characteristics in 4× pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios with exponentially increasing and decreasing CO2 using the Bern3D-LPX Earth system model of intermediate complexity. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and the rate of CDR are systematically varied. Hysteresis is quantified as the difference in a variable between the up and down pathway at identical cumulative carbon emissions. Typically, hysteresis increases non-linearly with increasing ECS, while its dependency on the CDR rate varies across variables. Large hysteresis is found for global surface air temperature (SAT), upper ocean heat content, ocean deoxygenation, and acidification. We find distinct spatial patterns of hysteresis: SAT exhibits strong polar amplification, hysteresis in O2 is both positive and negative depending on the interplay between changes in remineralization of organic matter and ventilation. Due to hysteresis, sustained negative emissions are required to return to and keep a CO2 and warming target, particularly for high climate sensitivities and the large overshoot scenario considered here. Our results suggest, that not emitting carbon in the first place is preferable over carbon dioxide removal, even if technologies would exist to efficiently remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store it away safely.

Past changes in the inventory of carbon stored in vegetation and soils remain uncertain. Earlier studies inferred the increase in the land carbon inventory (Δland) between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the preindustrial period (PI) based on marine and atmospheric stable carbon isotope reconstructions, with recent estimates yielding 300–400 GtC. Surprisingly, however, earlier studies considered a mass balance for the ocean–atmosphere–land biosphere system only. Notably, these studies neglect carbon exchange with marine sediments, weathering–burial flux imbalances, and the influence of the transient deglacial reorganization on the isotopic budgets. We show this simplification to significantly reduce Δland in simulations using the Bern3D Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity v.2.0s. We constrain Δland to ∼850 GtC (median estimate; 450 to 1250 GtC ±1SD) by using reconstructed changes in atmospheric δ13C, marine δ13C, deep Pacific carbonate ion concentration, and atmospheric CO2 as observational targets in a Monte Carlo ensemble with half a million members. It is highly unlikely that the land carbon inventory was larger at LGM than PI. Sensitivities of the target variables to changes in individual deglacial carbon cycle processes are established from transient factorial simulations with the Bern3D model. These are used in the Monte Carlo ensemble and provide forcing–response relationships for future model–model and model–data comparisons. Our study demonstrates the importance of ocean–sediment interactions and burial as well as weathering fluxes involving marine organic matter to explain deglacial change and suggests a major upward revision of earlier isotope-based estimates of Δland.

Past variations in atmospheric nitrous oxide (N₂O) allow important insight into abrupt climate events. Here, we investigate marine N₂O emissions by forcing the Bern3D Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity with freshwater into the North Atlantic. The model simulates a decrease in marine N₂O emissions of about 0.8 TgN yr⁻¹ followed by a recovery, in reasonable agreement regarding timing and magnitude with isotope-based reconstructions of marine emissions for the Younger Dryas Northern Hemisphere cold event. In the model the freshwater forcing causes a transient near-collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)leading to a fast adjustment in thermocline ventilation and an increase in O₂ in tropical eastern boundary systems and in the tropical Indian Ocean. In turn, net production by nitrification and denitrification and N₂O emissions decrease in these regions. The decrease in organic matter export, mainly in the North Atlantic where ventilation and nutrient supply is suppressed, explains the remaining emission reduction. Modeled global marine N₂O production and emission changes are delayed, initially by up to 300 years, relative to the AMOC decrease, but by less than 50 years at peak decline. The N₂O perturbation is recovering only slowly and the lag between the recovery in AMOC and the recovery in N₂O emissions and atmospheric concentrations exceeds 400 years. Thus, our results suggest a century-scale lag between ocean circulation and marine N₂O emissions, and a tight coupling between changes in AMOC and tropical thermocline ventilation.