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The latest cosmological constraints on the sum of the neutrino masses depend on prior physical assumptions about the mass spectrum. To test the accordance of cosmological and laboratory constraints in the absence of such priors, we introduce an effective neutrino mass parameter that extends consistently to negative values. For the $\Lambda$CDM model, we analyze data from Planck, ACT, and DESI and find a $2.8-3.3\sigma$ tension with the constraints from oscillation experiments. Motivated by recent hints of evolving dark energy, we analyze the $w_0w_a$ and mirage dark energy models, showing that they favour larger masses consistent with laboratory data, respectively $\sum m_{\nu,\mathrm{eff}} = 0.06_{-0.10}^{+0.15}\,\mathrm{eV}$ and $\sum m_{\nu,\mathrm{eff}} = 0.04_{-0.11}^{+0.15}\,\mathrm{eV}$ (both at 68\%)., Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures

We present the online service cosmICweb (COSMological Initial Conditions on the WEB) - the first database and web interface to store, analyze, and disseminate initial conditions for zoom simulations of objects forming in cosmological simulations: from galaxy clusters to galaxies and more. Specifically, we store compressed information about the Lagrangian proto-halo patches for all objects in a typical simulation merger tree along with properties of the halo/galaxy across cosmic time. This enables a convenient web-based selection of the desired zoom region for an object fitting user-specified selection criteria. The information about the region can then be used with the MUSIC code to generate the zoom ICs for the simulation. In addition to some other simulations, we currently support all objects in the EAGLE simulation database, so that for example the Auriga simulations are easily reproduced, which we demonstrate explicitly. The framework is extensible to include other simulations through an API that can be added to an existing database structure and with which cosmICweb can then be interfaced. We make the web portal and database publicly available to the community., Comment: To be submitted to The Open Journal of Astrophysics. The cosmICweb portal is accessible under https://cosmicweb.eu. v2: fixed rendering issues (Safari) in Fig. 3

The dark matter subhalos orbiting in a galactic halo perturb the orbits of stars in thin stellar streams. Over time the random velocities in the streams develop non-Gaussian wings. The rate of velocity increase is approximately a random walk at a rate proportional to the number of subhalos, primarily those in the mass range $\approx 10^{6-7} M_\odot$. The distribution of random velocities in long, thin, streams is measured in simulated Milky Way-like halos that develop in representative WDM and CDM cosmologies. The radial velocity distributions are well modeled as the sum of a Gaussian and an exponential. The resulting MCMC fits find Gaussian cores of 1-2 km/sec and exponential wings that increase from 3 km/sec for 5.5 keV WDM, 4 km/sec for 7 keV WDM, to 6 km/sec for a CDM halo. The observational prospects to use stream measurements to constrain the nature of galactic dark matter are discussed., Comment: AAS Journals submitted

The Voids-within-Voids-within-Voids (VVV) project used dark-matter-only simulations to study the abundance and structure of dark matter haloes over the full mass range populated in the standard $\Lambda\mathrm{CDM}$ cosmology. Here we explore how baryonic effects modify these results for $z=0$ halo masses in the range $10^4$ to $10^7~\mathrm{M_\odot}$, below the threshold for galaxy formation. Our main study focuses on three simulations from identical initial conditions at $z=127$, one following dark matter only, one including non-radiative gas, and one additionally including the baryonic physics relevant in this halo mass range (cooling and photoheating). In the non-radiative simulation, above $10^{5.5}~\mathrm{M_\odot}$, halo abundance and internal structure are very similar to the dark-matter-only simulation, and the baryon to dark matter ratio is everywhere close to the cosmic value. At lower mass, this ratio drops and haloes are less concentrated and less massive in the non-radiative case. Test simulations at higher resolution show this to be mainly a resolution effect; the expected drop in baryon content due to residual pressure effects only becomes substantial for $z=0$ haloes below $\sim 10^{2.7}~\mathrm{M_\odot}$. However, gas is heated by reionization at $z=6$ in our ``full physics'' run, and this results in almost complete expulsion of gas from all haloes in our simulated mass range. This suppresses the halo mass function by $\sim 30 \%$, lowers halo concentration, and consequently weakens the dark matter annihilation signal by $\sim 40-60 \%$., Comment: 12+2 pages, 9 figures

Large-scale structure surveys have reported measurements of the density of matter, $\Omega_\mathrm{m}$, and the amplitude of clustering, $\sigma_8$, that are in tension with the values inferred from observations of the cosmic microwave background. While this may be a sign of new physics that slows the growth of structure at late times, strong astrophysical feedback processes could also be responsible. In this work, we argue that astrophysical processes are not independent of cosmology and that their coupling naturally leads to stronger baryonic feedback in cosmological models with suppressed structure formation or when combined with a mechanism that removes dark matter from halos. We illustrate this with two well-motivated extensions of the Standard Model known to suppress structure formation: massive neutrinos and decaying dark matter. Our results, based on the FLAMINGO suite of hydrodynamical simulations, show that the combined effect of baryonic and non-baryonic suppression mechanisms is greater than the sum of its parts, particularly for decaying dark matter. We also show that the dependence of baryonic feedback on cosmology can be modelled as a function of the ratio $f_\mathrm{b}/c^2_\mathrm{v}\sim f_\mathrm{b}/(\Omega_\mathrm{m}\sigma_8)^{1/4}$ of the universal baryon fraction, $f_\mathrm{b}$, to a velocity-based definition of halo concentration, $c^2_\mathrm{v}$, giving an accurate fitting formula for the baryonic suppression of the matter power spectrum. Although the combination of baryonic and non-baryonic suppression mechanisms can resolve the tension, the models with neutrinos and decaying dark matter are challenged by constraints on the expansion history., Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, submitted to MNRAS

We present an extended suite of the Auriga cosmological gravo-magnetohydrodynamical "zoom-in" simulations of 40 Milky Way-mass halos and 26 dwarf galaxy-mass halos run with the moving-mesh code Arepo. Auriga adopts the $\Lambda$ Cold Dark Matter ($\Lambda$CDM) cosmogony and includes a comprehensive galaxy formation physics model following the coupled cosmic evolution of dark matter, gas, stars, and supermassive black holes which has been shown to produce numerically well-converged galaxy properties for Milky Way-mass systems. We describe the first public data release of this augmented suite of Auriga simulations, which includes raw snapshots, group catalogues, merger trees, initial conditions, and supplementary data, as well as public analysis tools with worked examples of how to use the data. To demonstrate the value and robustness of the simulation predictions, we analyse a series of low-redshift global properties that compare well with many observed scaling relations, such as the Tully-Fisher relation, the star-forming main sequence, and HI gas fraction/disc thickness. Finally, we show that star-forming gas discs appear to build rotation and velocity dispersion rapidly for $z\gtrsim 3$ before they "settle" into ever-increasing rotation-dispersion ratios ($V/\sigma$). This evolution appears to be in rough agreement with some kinematic measurements from H$\alpha$ observations, and demonstrates an application of how to utilise the released data., Comment: Matches final MNRAS version

We use the Voids-within-Voids-within-Voids (VVV) simulations, a suite of successive nested N-body simulations with extremely high resolution (denoted, from low to high resolution, by L0 to L7), to test the Press-Schechter (PS), Sheth-Tormen (ST), and extended Press-Schechter (EPS) formulae for the halo abundance over the entire mass range, from mini-haloes of $10^{-6}\ \mathrm{M_\odot}$, to cluster haloes of $10^{15}\ \mathrm{M_\odot}$, at different redshifts, from $z=30$ to the present. We find that at $z=0$ and $z=2$, ST best reproduces the results of L0, which has the mean cosmic density (overdensity $\delta=0$), at $10^{11-15} ~\mathrm{M_\odot}$. The higher resolution levels (L1-L7) are biased underdense regions ($\delta<-0.6$). The EPS formalism takes this into account since it gives the mass function of a region conditioned, in this case, on having a given underdensity. EPS provides good matches to these higher levels, with deviations $\lesssim 20\%$, at $10^{-6-12.5} ~\mathrm{M_\odot}$. At $z \sim 7-15$, the ST predictions for L0 and the EPS for L1-L7 show somewhat larger deviations from the simulation results. However, at even higher redshifts, $z \sim 30$, EPS fits the simulations well again. We confirm our results by picking more subvolumes from the L0 simulation, finding that our conclusions depend only weakly on the size and overdensity of the region. The good agreement of EPS with the higher-level simulations implies that PS (or ST) gives an accurate description of the total halo mass function in representative regions of the universe., Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures (additional 2 figures in the appendix)

The Cosmic Neutrino Background (CNB) encodes a wealth of information, but has not yet been observed directly. To determine the prospects of detection and to study its information content, we reconstruct the phase-space distribution of local relic neutrinos from the three-dimensional distribution of matter within 200 Mpc/h of the Milky Way. Our analysis relies on constrained realization simulations and forward modelling of the 2M++ galaxy catalogue. We find that the angular distribution of neutrinos is anti-correlated with the projected matter density, due to the capture and deflection of neutrinos by massive structures along the line of sight. Of relevance to tritium capture experiments, we find that the gravitational clustering effect of the large-scale structure on the local number density of neutrinos is more important than that of the Milky Way for neutrino masses less than 0.1 eV. Nevertheless, we predict that the density of relic neutrinos is close to the cosmic average, with a suppression or enhancement over the mean of (-0.3%, +7%, +27%) for masses of (0.01, 0.05, 0.1) eV. This implies no more than a marginal increase in the event rate for tritium capture experiments like PTOLEMY. We also predict that the CNB and CMB rest frames coincide for 0.01 eV neutrinos, but that neutrino velocities are significantly perturbed for masses larger than 0.05 eV. Regardless of mass, we find that the angle between the neutrino dipole and the ecliptic plane is small, implying a near-maximal annual modulation in the bulk velocity. Along with this paper, we publicly release our simulation data, comprising more than 100 simulations for six different neutrino masses., Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, JCAP, accepted with minor revisions

To fully take advantage of the data provided by large-scale structure surveys, we need to quantify the potential impact of baryonic effects, such as feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) and star formation, on cosmological observables. In simulations, feedback processes originate on scales that remain unresolved. Therefore, they need to be sourced via subgrid models that contain free parameters. We use machine learning to calibrate the AGN and stellar feedback models for the FLAMINGO cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. Using Gaussian process emulators trained on Latin hypercubes of 32 smaller-volume simulations, we model how the galaxy stellar mass function and cluster gas fractions change as a function of the subgrid parameters. The emulators are then fit to observational data, allowing for the inclusion of potential observational biases. We apply our method to the three different FLAMINGO resolutions, spanning a factor of 64 in particle mass, recovering the observed relations within the respective resolved mass ranges. We also use the emulators, which link changes in subgrid parameters to changes in observables, to find models that skirt or exceed the observationally allowed range for cluster gas fractions and the stellar mass function. Our method enables us to define model variations in terms of the data that they are calibrated to rather than the values of specific subgrid parameters. This approach is useful, because subgrid parameters are typically not directly linked to particular observables, and predictions for a specific observable are influenced by multiple subgrid parameters., Comment: 24 pages, 10 figures (Including the appendix). Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Minor changes w.r.t. version 1. For visualisations, see the FLAMINGO website at https://flamingo.strw.leidenuniv.nl/

We introduce the Virgo Consortium's FLAMINGO suite of hydrodynamical simulations for cosmology and galaxy cluster physics. To ensure the simulations are sufficiently realistic for studies of large-scale structure, the subgrid prescriptions for stellar and AGN feedback are calibrated to the observed low-redshift galaxy stellar mass function and cluster gas fractions. The calibration is performed using machine learning, separately for three resolutions. This approach enables specification of the model by the observables to which they are calibrated. The calibration accounts for a number of potential observational biases and for random errors in the observed stellar masses. The two most demanding simulations have box sizes of 1.0 and 2.8 Gpc and baryonic particle masses of $1\times10^8$ and $1\times10^9 \text{M}_\odot$, respectively. For the latter resolution the suite includes 12 model variations in a 1 Gpc box. There are 8 variations at fixed cosmology, including shifts in the stellar mass function and/or the cluster gas fractions to which we calibrate, and two alternative implementations of AGN feedback (thermal or jets). The remaining 4 variations use the unmodified calibration data but different cosmologies, including different neutrino masses. The 2.8 Gpc simulation follows $3\times10^{11}$ particles, making it the largest ever hydrodynamical simulation run to $z=0$. Lightcone output is produced on-the-fly for up to 8 different observers. We investigate numerical convergence, show that the simulations reproduce the calibration data, and compare with a number of galaxy, cluster, and large-scale structure observations, finding very good agreement with the data for converged predictions. Finally, by comparing hydrodynamical and `dark-matter-only' simulations, we confirm that baryonic effects can suppress the halo mass function and the matter power spectrum by up to $\approx20$ per cent., Comment: 44 pages, 23 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. V3 includes changes made in published version: jet simulations were redone to fix a bug, but the differences are nearly invisible. For visualizations, see the FLAMINGO website at https://flamingo.strw.leidenuniv.nl/

We take advantage of the unprecedented dynamical range provided by the "Cosmic-Zoom" project to study the mass accretion history (MAH) of present-day dark matter haloes over the entire mass range present in the $\Lambda$CDM paradigm when the dark matter is made of weakly interacting massive particles of mass $100\ \mathrm{GeV}$. In particular, we complement previous studies by exploring the MAHs of haloes with mass from $10^8\ h^{-1}\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ down to Earth mass, $10^{-6}\ h^{-1}\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$. The formation redshift of low-mass haloes anti-correlates weakly with mass, peaking at $z=3$ for haloes of mass $10^{-4}\ h^{-1}\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$. Even lower masses are affected by the free-streaming cutoff in the primordial spectrum of density fluctuations and form at lower redshift. We compare MAHs in our simulations with predictions from two analytical models based on the extended Press-Schechter theory (EPS), and three empirical models derived by fitting and extrapolating either results from cosmological $N$-body simulations or Monte Carlo realizations of halo growth. All models fit our simulations reasonably well over the mass range for which they were calibrated. While the empirical models match better for more massive haloes, $M>10^{10}\ h^{-1}\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$, the analytical models do better when extrapolated down to Earth mass. At the higher masses, we explore the correlation between local environment density and MAH, finding that biases are relatively weak, with typical MAHs for haloes in extremely low-density and in typical regions differing by less than $20$ percent at high redshift. We conclude that EPS theory predicts the hierarchical build-up of dark matter haloes quite well over the entire mass range.

The "plane of satellites problem" describes the arrangement of the Milky Way's 11 brightest satellite galaxies in a remarkably thin plane, possibly supported by rotation. This is in apparent contradiction to the standard cosmological model, wherein the Galaxy is surrounded by a dispersion-supported dark matter halo. Here, we show that the reported exceptional anisotropy of the satellite system is strongly contingent on a lopsided radial distribution, which earlier simulations have failed to reproduce, combined with the close but fleeting conjunction of the two most distant satellites, Leo I and Leo II. Using Gaia proper motions, we show that the orbital pole alignment is much more common than previously reported, and reveal the plane of satellites to be transient rather than rotationally supported. Comparing to new simulations, where such short-lived planes are common, we find the Milky Way satellites to be compatible with standard model expectations.

We present SIBELIUS-DARK, a constrained realisation simulation of the local volume to a distance of 200~Mpc from the Milky Way. SIBELIUS-DARK is the first study of the \textit{Simulations Beyond The Local Universe} (SIBELIUS) project, which has the goal of embedding a model Local Group-like system within the correct cosmic environment. The simulation is dark-matter-only, with the galaxy population calculated using the semi-analytic model of galaxy formation, GALFORM. We demonstrate that the large-scale structure that emerges from the SIBELIUS constrained initial conditions matches well the observational data. The inferred galaxy population of SIBELIUS-DARK also match well the observational data, both statistically for the whole volume and on an object-by-object basis for the most massive clusters. For example, the $K$-band number counts across the whole sky, and when divided between the northern and southern Galactic hemispheres, are well reproduced by SIBELIUS-DARK. We find that the local volume is somewhat unusual in the wider context of $\Lambda$CDM: it contains an abnormally high number of supermassive clusters, as well as an overall large-scale underdensity at the level of $\approx 5$\% relative to the cosmic mean. However, whilst rare, the extent of these peculiarities does not significantly challenge the $\Lambda$CDM model. SIBELIUS-DARK is the most comprehensive constrained realisation simulation of the local volume to date, and with this paper we publicly release the halo and galaxy catalogues at $z=0$, which we hope will be useful to the wider astronomy community., Comment: 26 pages, 19 figures. Paper as been accepted for publication in MNRAS. Comments welcome

The discovery that neutrinos have mass has important consequences for cosmology. The main effect of massive neutrinos is to suppress the growth of cosmic structure on small scales. Such growth can be accurately modelled using cosmological $N$-body simulations, but doing so requires accurate initial conditions (ICs). There is a trade-off, especially with first-order ICs, between truncation errors for late starts and discreteness and relativistic errors for early starts. Errors can be minimized by starting simulations at late times using higher-order ICs. In this paper, we show that neutrino effects can be absorbed into scale-independent coefficients in higher-order Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT). This clears the way for the use of higher-order ICs for massive neutrino simulations. We demonstrate that going to higher order substantially improves the accuracy of simulations. To match the sensitivity of surveys like DESI and Euclid, errors in the matter power spectrum should be well below 1%. However, we find that first-order Zel'dovich ICs lead to much larger errors, even when starting as early as $z=127$, exceeding 1% at $z=0$ for $k>0.5\text{ Mpc}^{-1}$ for the power spectrum and $k>0.1\text{ Mpc}^{-1}$ for the equilateral bispectrum in our simulations. Ratios of power spectra with different neutrino masses are more robust than absolute statistics, but still depend on the choice of ICs. For all statistics considered, we obtain 1% agreement between 2LPT and 3LPT at $z=0$., Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures, with link to software, minor update of version submitted to MNRAS

Modern hydrodynamical simulations reproduce many properties of the real universe. These simulations model various physical processes, but many of these are included using `subgrid models' due to resolution limits. Although different subgrid models have been successful in modelling the effects of supernovae (SNe) feedback on galactic properties, it remains unclear if, and by how much, these differing implementations affect observable halo gas properties. In this work, we use `zoom-in' cosmological initial conditions of two volumes selected to resemble the Local Group (LG) evolved with both the Auriga and EAGLE galaxy formation models. While the subgrid physics models in both simulations reproduce realistic stellar components of $L^\star$ galaxies, they exhibit different gas properties. Namely, Auriga predicts that the Milky Way (MW) is almost baryonically closed, whereas EAGLE suggests that only half of the expected baryons reside within the halo. Furthermore, EAGLE predicts that this baryon deficiency extends to the LG, ($r \leq 1 \mathrm{~Mpc}$). The baryon deficiency in EAGLE is likely due to SNe feedback at high redshift, which generates halo-wide outflows, with high covering fractions and radial velocities, which both eject baryons and significantly impede cosmic gas accretion. Conversely, in Auriga, gas accretion is almost unaffected by feedback. These differences appear to be the result of the different energy injection methods from SNe to gas. Our results suggest that both quasar absorption lines and fast radio burst dispersion measures could constrain these two regimes with future observations., Comment: 22 pages, 17 figures + 2 pages of references and appendices. Submitted to MNRAS

We investigate the formation of the satellite galaxy population of a Milky Way-mass halo in a very highly resolved magneto-hydrodynamic cosmological zoom-in simulation (baryonic mass resolution $m_b =$ 800 $\rm M_{\odot}$). We show that the properties of the central star-forming galaxy, such as the radial stellar surface density profile and star formation history, are: i) robust to stochastic variations associated with the so-called ``Butterfly Effect''; and ii) well converged over 3.5 orders of magnitude in mass resolution. We find that there are approximately five times as many satellite galaxies at this high resolution compared to a standard ($m_b\sim 10^{4-5}\, \rm M_{\odot}$) resolution simulation of the same system. This is primarily because 2/3rds of the high resolution satellites do not form at standard resolution. A smaller fraction (1/6th) of the satellites present at high resolution form and disrupt at standard resolution; these objects are preferentially low-mass satellites on intermediate- to low-eccentricity orbits with impact parameters $\lesssim 30$ kpc. As a result, the radial distribution of satellites becomes substantially more centrally concentrated at higher resolution, in better agreement with recent observations of satellites around Milky Way-mass haloes. Finally, we show that our galaxy formation model successfully forms ultra-faint galaxies and reproduces the stellar velocity dispersion, half-light radii, and $V$-band luminosities of observed Milky Way and Local Group dwarf galaxies across 6 orders of magnitude in luminosity ($10^3$-$10^{9}$ $\rm L_{\odot}$)., Comment: accepted for publication in MNRAS. Main changes include new figure 4 and figure 11

We introduce "Simulations Beyond The Local Universe" (SIBELIUS) that connect the Local Group to its cosmic environment. We show that introducing hierarchical small-scale perturbations to a density field constrained on large scales by observations provides an efficient way to explore the sample space of Local Group analogues. From more than 60 000 simulations, we identify a hierarchy of Local Group characteristics emanating from different scales: the total mass, orientation, orbital energy and the angular momentum are largely determined by modes above $\lambda$ = 1.6 comoving Mpc (cMpc) in the primordial density field. Smaller scale variations are mostly manifest as perturbations to the MW-M31 orbit, and we find that the observables commonly used to describe the Local Group -- the MW-M31 separation and radial velocity -- are transient and depend on specifying scales down to 0.2 cMpc in the primordial density field. We further find that the presence of M33/LMC analogues significantly affects the MW-M31 orbit and its sensitivity to small-scale perturbations. We construct initial conditions that lead to the formation of a Local Group whose primary observables precisely match the current observations., Comment: 14 pages, 15 figures. Submitted to MNRAS, comments welcome!

Accurate predictions of basal melt rates on ice shelves are necessary for precise projections of the future behaviour of ice sheets. The computational expense associated with completely resolving the cavity circulation using an ocean model makes this approach unfeasible for multi-century simulations, and parametrizations of melt rates are required. At present, some of the most advanced melt rate parametrizations are based on a one-dimensional approximation to the melt rate that emerges from the theory of subglacial plumes applied to ice shelves with constant basal slopes and uniform ambient ocean conditions; in this work, we present an asymptotic analysis of the corresponding equations in which non-constant basal slopes and typical ambient conditions are imposed. This analysis exploits the small aspect ratio of ice shelf bases, the relatively weak thermal driving and the relative slenderness of the region separating warm, salty water at depth and cold, fresh water at the surface in the ambient ocean. We construct an approximation to the melt rate that is based on this analysis, which shows good agreement with numerical solutions in a wide variety of cases, suggesting a path towards improved predictions of basal melt rates in ice-sheet models., Comment: 32 pages, 7 figures

Indra is a suite of large-volume cosmological $N$-body simulations with the goal of providing excellent statistics of the large-scale features of the distribution of dark matter. Each of the 384 simulations is computed with the same cosmological parameters and different initial phases, with 1024$^3$ dark matter particles in a box of length 1 Gpc/h, 64 snapshots of particle data and halo catalogs, and 505 time steps of the Fourier modes of the density field, amounting to almost a petabyte of data. All of the Indra data are immediately available for analysis via the SciServer science platform, which provides interactive and batch computing modes, personal data storage, and other hosted data sets such as the Millennium simulations and many astronomical surveys. We present the Indra simulations, describe the data products and how to access them, and measure ensemble averages, variances, and covariances of the matter power spectrum, the matter correlation function, and the halo mass function to demonstrate the types of computations that Indra enables. We hope that Indra will be both a resource for large-scale structure research and a demonstration of how to make very large datasets public and computationally accessible., Comment: matches published version. Indra is available on SciServer at http://sciserver.org

The satellite galaxies of the Milky Way (MW) are effective probes of the underlying dark matter (DM) substructure, which is sensitive to the nature of the DM particle. In particular, a class of DM models have a power spectrum cut-off on the mass scale of dwarf galaxies and thus predict only small numbers of substructures below the cut-off mass. This makes the MW satellite system appealing to constrain the DM properties: feasible models must produce enough substructure to host the number of observed Galactic satellites. Here, we compare theoretical predictions of the abundance of DM substructure in thermal relic warm DM (WDM) models with estimates of the total satellite population of the MW. This produces conservative robust lower limits on the allowed mass, $m_\mathrm{th}$, of the thermal relic WDM particle. As the abundance of satellite galaxies depends on the MW halo mass, we marginalize over the corresponding uncertainties and rule out $m_\mathrm{th} \leq 2.02\, \mathrm{keV}$ at 95 per cent confidence independently of assumptions about galaxy formation processes. Modelling some of these - in particular, the effect of reionization, which suppresses the formation of dwarf galaxies - strengthens our constraints on the DM properties and excludes models with $m_\mathrm{th} \leq 3.99\, \mathrm{keV}$ in our fiducial model. We also find that thermal relic models cannot produce enough satellites if the MW halo mass is $M_{200}\leq 0.6\times 10^{12}\, \mathrm{M_\odot}$, which imposes a lower limit on the MW halo mass in CDM. We address several observational and theoretical uncertainties and discuss how improvements in these will strengthen the DM mass constraints., Comment: 29 pages (JCAP format), 3 appendices, 10 figures, 1 table. Version accepted by JCAP and published by IOP Publishing under Gold Open Access - Transformative Agreement with a CC-BY 4.0 licence

Cosmology places the strongest current limits on the sum of neutrino masses. Future observations will further improve the sensitivity and this will require accurate cosmological simulations to quantify possible systematic uncertainties and to make predictions for nonlinear scales, where much information resides. However, shot noise arising from neutrino thermal motions limits the accuracy of simulations. In this paper, we introduce a new method for simulating large-scale structure formation with neutrinos that accurately resolves the neutrinos down to small scales and significantly reduces the shot noise. The method works by tracking perturbations to the neutrino phase-space distribution with particles and reduces shot noise in the power spectrum by a factor of $\mathcal{O}\left(10^2\right)$ at $z=0$ for minimal neutrino masses and significantly more at higher redshifts, without neglecting the back-reaction caused by neutrino clustering. We prove that the method is part of a family of optimal methods that minimize shot noise subject to a maximum deviation from the nonlinear solution. Compared to other methods we find permille level agreement in the matter power spectrum and percent level agreement in the large-scale neutrino bias, but large differences in the neutrino component on small scales. A basic version of the method can easily be implemented in existing N-body codes and makes it possible to run neutrino simulations with significantly reduced particle load. Further gains are possible by constructing background models based on perturbation theory. A major advantage of this technique is that it works well for all masses, enabling a consistent exploration of the full neutrino parameter space., Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, submitted to MNRAS

We present a cosmological hydrodynamical simulation of a 10^13 Msun galaxy group and its environment (out to 10 times the virial radius) carried out using the EAGLE model of galaxy formation. Exploiting a novel technique to increase the resolution of the dark matter calculation independently of that of the gas, the simulation resolves dark matter haloes and subhaloes of mass 5x10^6 Msun . It is therefore useful for studying the abundance and properties of the haloes and subhaloes targeted in strong lensing tests of the cold dark matter model. We estimate the halo and subhalo mass functions and discuss how they are affected both by the inclusion of baryons in the simulation and by the environment. We find that the halo and subhalo mass functions have lower amplitude in the hydrodynamical simulation than in its dark matter only counterpart. This reflects the reduced growth of haloes in the hydrodynamical simulation due to the early loss of gas by reionisation and galactic winds and, additionally, in the case of subhaloes, disruption by enhanced tidal effects within the host halo due to the presence of a massive central galaxy. The distribution of haloes is highly anisotropic reflecting the filamentary character of mass accretion onto the cluster. As a result, there is significant variation in the number of structures with viewing direction. The median number of structures near the centre of the halo, when viewed in projection, is reduced by a factor of two when baryons are included., Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures, accepted in MNRAS

The existence of hot, accreted gaseous coronae around massive galaxies is a long-standing central prediction of galaxy formation models in the $\Lambda$CDM cosmology. While observations now confirm that extraplanar hot gas is present around late-type galaxies, the origin of the gas is uncertain with suggestions that galactic feedback could be the dominant source of energy powering the emission. We investigate the origin and X-ray properties of the hot gas that surrounds galaxies of halo mass, $(10^{11}-10^{14}) \mathrm{M}_\odot$, in the cosmological hydrodynamical EAGLE simulations. We find that the central X-ray emission, $\leq 0.10 R_{\mathrm{vir}}$, of halos of mass $\leq 10^{13} \mathrm{M}_\odot$ originates from gas heated by supernovae (SNe). However, beyond this region, a quasi-hydrostatic, accreted atmosphere dominates the X-ray emission in halos of mass $\geq 10^{12} \mathrm{M}_\odot$. We predict that a dependence on halo mass of the hot gas to dark matter mass fraction can significantly change the slope of the $L_{\mathrm{X}}-M_{\mathrm{vir}}$ relation (which is typically assumed to be $4/3$ for clusters) and we derive the scaling law appropriate to this case. As the gas fraction in halos increases with halo mass, we find a steeper slope for the $L_{\mathrm{X}}-M_{\mathrm{vir}}$ in lower mass halos, $\leq 10^{14} \mathrm{M}_\odot$. This varying gas fraction is driven by active galactic nuclei (AGN) feedback. We also identify the physical origin of the so-called "missing feedback" problem, the apparently low X-ray luminosities observed from high star-forming, low-mass galaxies. This is explained by the ejection of SNe-heated gas from the central regions of the halo., Comment: 18 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

We report an idealized numerical study of a melting and freezing solid adjacent to a turbulent, buoyancy-affected shear flow, in order to improve our understanding of topography generation by phase changes in the environment. We use the phase-field method to dynamically couple the heat equation for the solid with the Navier-Stokes equations for the fluid. We investigate the evolution of an initially-flat and horizontal solid boundary overlying a pressure-driven turbulent flow. We assume a linear equation of state for the fluid and change the sign of the thermal expansion coefficient, such that the background density stratification is either stable, neutral or unstable. We find that channels aligned with the direction of the mean flow are generated spontaneously by phase changes at the fluid-solid interface. Streamwise vortices in the fluid, the interface topography and the temperature field in the solid influence each other and adjust until a statistical steady state is obtained. The crest-to-trough amplitude of the channels are larger than about 10$\delta_{\nu}$ in all cases, with $\delta_{\nu}$ the viscous length scale, but are much larger and more persistent for an unstable stratification than for a neutral or stable stratification. This happens because a stable stratification makes the cool melt fluid buoyant such that it shields the channel from further melting, whereas an unstable stratification makes the cool melt fluid sink, inducing further melting by rising hot plumes. The statistics of flow velocities and melt rates are investigated, and we find that channels and keels emerging in our simulations do not significantly change the mean drag coefficient., Comment: 35 pages, 15 figures

We study structure formation in a set of cosmological simulations to uncover the scales in the initial density field that gave rise to the formation of present-day structures. Our simulations share a common primordial power spectrum (here Lambda-CDM), but the introduction of hierarchical variations of the phase information allows us to systematically study the scales that determine the formation of structure at later times. We consider the variance in z=0 statistics such as the matter power spectrum and halo mass function. We also define a criterion for the existence of individual haloes across simulations, and determine what scales in the initial density field contain sufficient information for the non-linear formation of unique haloes. We study how the characteristics of individual haloes such as the mass and concentration, as well as the position and velocity, are affected by variations on different scales, and give scaling relations for haloes of different mass. Finally, we use the example of a cluster-mass halo to show how our hierarchical parametrisation of the initial density field can be used to create variants of particular objects. With properties such as mass, concentration, kinematics and substructure of haloes set on distinct and well-determined scales, and its unique ability to introduce variations localised in real space, our method is a powerful tool to study structure formation in cosmological simulations., Comment: 18 pages, 22 figures, submitted to MNRAS

Cosmological models in which dark matter consists of cold elementary particles predict that the dark halo population should extend to masses many orders of magnitude below those at which galaxies can form. Here we report a cosmological simulation of the formation of present-day haloes over the full range of observed halo masses (20 orders of magnitude) when dark matter is assumed to be in the form of weakly interacting massive particles of mass approximately 100 gigaelectronvolts. The simulation has a full dynamic range of 30 orders of magnitude in mass and resolves the internal structure of hundreds of Earth-mass haloes in as much detail as it does for hundreds of rich galaxy clusters. We find that halo density profiles are universal over the entire mass range and are well described by simple two-parameter fitting formulae. Halo mass and concentration are tightly related in a way that depends on cosmology and on the nature of the dark matter. For a fixed mass, the concentration is independent of the local environment for haloes less massive than those of typical galaxies. Haloes over the mass range of 10^3 to 10^11 solar masses contribute about equally (per logarithmic interval) to the luminosity produced by dark matter annihilation, which we find to be smaller than all previous estimates by factors ranging up to one thousand., Comment: 39 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Nature, a new sub-section on dark matter annihilation added, references added

N-body simulations make unambiguous predictions for the abundance of substructures within dark matter halos. However, the inclusion of baryons in the simulations changes the picture because processes associated with the presence of a large galaxy in the halo can destroy subhalos and substantially alter the mass function and velocity distribution of subhalos. We compare the effect of galaxy formation on subhalo populations in two state-of-the-art sets of hydrodynamical CDM simulations of Milky Way mass halos, APOSTLE and AURIGA. We introduce a new method for tracking the orbits of subhalos between simulation snapshots that gives accurate results down to a few kiloparsecs from the centre of the halo. Relative to a dark matter-only simulation, the abundance of subhalos in APOSTLE is reduced by 50% near the centre and by 10% within r200. In AURIGA the corresponding numbers are 80% and 40%. The velocity distributions of subhalos are also affected by the presence of the galaxy, much more so in AURIGA than in APOSTLE . The differences on subhalo properties in the two simulations can be traced back to the mass of the central galaxies, which in AURIGA are typically twice as massive as those in APOSTLE . We show that some of the results from previous studies are inaccurate due to systematic errors in the modelling of subhalo orbits near the centre of halos., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS

Measurements of the rotation curves of dwarf galaxies are often interpreted as requiring a constant density core at the centre, at odds with the "cuspy" inner profiles predicted by $N$-body simulations of cold dark matter (CDM) haloes. It has been suggested that this conflict could be resolved by fluctuations in the inner gravitational potential caused by the periodic removal of gas following bursts of star formation. Earlier work has suggested that core formation requires a bursty and extended star formation history (SFH). Here we investigate the structure of CDM haloes of dwarf galaxies ($M_{{\rm DM}} \sim 10^9-5\times10^{10}\,{\rm M}_\odot$) formed in the APOSTLE ('A Project of Simulating the Local Environment') and AURIGA cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. Our simulations have comparable or better resolution than others that make cores ($M_{{\rm gas}} \sim 10^4\,{\rm M}_\odot$, gravitational softening $\sim 150$ pc). Yet, we do not find evidence of core formation at {\it any} mass or any correlation between the inner slope of the DM density profile and temporal variations in the SFH. APOSTLE and AURIGA dwarfs display a similar diversity in their cumulative SFHs to available data for Local Group dwarfs. Dwarfs in both simulations are DM-dominated on all resolved scales at all times, likely limiting the ability of gas outflows to alter significantly the central density profiles of their haloes. We conclude that recurrent bursts of star formation are not sufficient to cause the formation of cores, and that other conditions must also be met for baryons to be able to modify the central DM cusp., Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables. Updated version accepted for publication in MNRAS

The Milky Way's (MW) satellite population is a powerful probe of warm dark matter (WDM) models as the abundance of small substructures is very sensitive to the properties of the WDM particle. However, only a partial census of the MW's complement of satellite galaxies exists because surveys of the MW's close environs are incomplete both in depth and in sky coverage. We present a new Bayesian analysis that combines the sample of satellites recently discovered by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) with those found in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) to estimate the total satellite galaxy luminosity function down to $M_{\rm V}=0$. We find that there should be at least $124^{+40}_{-27}$ ($68\%$ CL, statistical error) satellites as bright or brighter than $M_{\rm V}=0$ within 300 kpc of the Sun, with only a weak dependence on MW halo mass. When it comes online the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope should detect approximately half of this population. We also show that WDM models infer the same number of satellites as in $\Lambda$CDM, which will allow us to rule out those models that produce insufficient substructure to be viable., Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, to appear in proceedings of IAU Symposium 344 "Dwarf Galaxies: From the Deep Universe to the Present"

We present recalibrations of the GALFORM semi-analytical model of galaxy formation in a new N-body simulation with the Planck cosmology. The Planck Millennium simulation uses more than 128 billion particles to resolve the matter distribution in a cube of $800$ Mpc on a side, which contains more than 77 million dark matter haloes with mass greater than $2.12 \times 10^{9} h^{-1} {\rm M_{\odot}}$ at the present day. Only minor changes to a very small number of model parameters are required in the recalibration. We present predictions for the atomic hydrogen content (HI) of dark matter halos, which is a key input into the calculation of the HI intensity mapping signal expected from the large-scale structure of the Universe. We find that the HI mass $-$ halo mass relation displays a clear break at the halo mass above which AGN heating suppresses gas cooling, $\approx 3 \times 10^{11} h^{-1} M_{\rm \odot}$. Below this halo mass, the HI content of haloes is dominated by the central galaxy; above this mass it is the combined HI content of satellites that prevails. We find that the HI mass - halo mass relation changes little with redshift up to $z=3$. The bias of HI sources shows a scale dependence that gets more pronounced with increasing redshift., Comment: 17 pages, accepted by MNRAS

The total number and luminosity function of the population of dwarf galaxies of the Milky Way (MW) provide important constraints on the nature of the dark matter and on the astrophysics of galaxy formation at low masses. However, only a partial census of this population exists because of the flux limits and restricted sky coverage of existing Galactic surveys. We combine the sample of satellites recently discovered by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) with the satellites found in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 9 (together these surveys cover nearly half the sky) to estimate the total luminosity function of satellites down to $M_{\rm V}=0$. We apply a new Bayesian inference method in which we assume that the radial distribution of satellites independently of absolute magnitude follows that of subhaloes selected according to their peak maximum circular velocity. We find that there should be at least $124^{+40}_{-27}$ (68 per cent CL, statistical error) satellites brighter than $M_{\rm V}=0$ within $300$ kpc of the Sun. As a result of our use of new data and better simulations, and a more robust statistical method, we infer a much smaller population of satellites than reported in previous studies using earlier SDSS data only; we also address an underestimation of the uncertainties in earlier work by accounting for stochastic effects. We find that the inferred number of faint satellites depends only weakly on the assumed mass of the MW halo and we provide scaling relations to extend our results to different assumed halo masses and outer radii. We predict that half of our estimated total satellite population of the MW should be detected by the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope. The code implementing our estimation method is available online., Comment: 20 pages, 15 figures, 5 tables, 5 appendices. Accepted to MNRAS

We introduce the Cluster-EAGLE (C-EAGLE) simulation project, a set of cosmological hydrodynamical zoom simulations of the formation of $30$ galaxy clusters in the mass range $10^{14}

We introduce the Hydrangea simulations, a suite of 24 cosmological hydrodynamic zoom-in simulations of massive galaxy clusters (M_200c = 10^14-10^15 M_Sun) with baryon particle masses of ~10^6 M_Sun. Designed to study the impact of the cluster environment on galaxy formation, they are a key part of the `Cluster-EAGLE' project (Barnes et al. 2017). They use a galaxy formation model developed for the EAGLE project, which has been shown to yield both realistic field galaxies and hot gas fractions of galaxy groups consistent with observations. The total stellar mass content of the simulated clusters agrees with observations, but central cluster galaxies are too massive, by up to 0.6 dex. Passive satellite fractions are higher than in the field, and at stellar masses Mstar > 10^10 M_Sun this environmental effect is quantitatively consistent with observations. The predicted satellite stellar mass function matches data from local cluster surveys. Normalized to total mass, there are fewer low-mass (Mstar < 10^10 M_Sun) galaxies within the virial radius of clusters than in the field, primarily due to star formation quenching. Conversely, the simulations predict an overabundance of massive galaxies in clusters compared to the field that persists to their far outskirts (> 5r_200c). This is caused by a significantly increased stellar mass fraction of (sub-)haloes in the cluster environment, by up to ~0.3 dex even well beyond r_200c. Haloes near clusters are also more concentrated than equally massive field haloes, but these two effects are largely uncorrelated., Comment: 22 pages, 15 figures (18 pages, 14 figures without appendices); submitted to MNRAS

We introduce a suite of thirty cosmological magneto-hydrodynamical zoom simulations of the formation of galaxies in isolated Milky Way mass dark haloes. These were carried out with the moving mesh code \textlcsc{AREPO}, together with a comprehensive model for galaxy formation physics, including AGN feedback and magnetic fields, which produces realistic galaxy populations in large cosmological simulations. We demonstrate that our simulations reproduce a wide range of present-day observables, in particular, two component disc dominated galaxies with appropriate stellar masses, sizes, rotation curves, star formation rates and metallicities. We investigate the driving mechanisms that set present-day disc sizes/scale lengths, and find that they are related to the angular momentum of halo material. We show that the largest discs are produced by quiescent mergers that inspiral into the galaxy and deposit high angular momentum material into the pre-existing disc, simultaneously increasing the spin of dark matter and gas in the halo. More violent mergers and strong AGN feedback play roles in limiting disc size by destroying pre-existing discs and by suppressing gas accretion onto the outer disc, respectively. The most important factor that leads to compact discs, however, is simply a low angular momentum for the halo. In these cases, AGN feedback plays an important role in limiting central star formation and the formation of a massive bulge., Comment: 32 pages, 25 figures. MNRAS accepted after significant improvements. Information, images and movies of the Auriga project can be found at http://auriga.h-its.org