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Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically based and distributed modeling schemes employing data assimilation techniques. However, few studies have attempted to develop operational probabilistic forecasting approaches for large and poorly gauged river basins. The objective of this study is to develop open-source software tools to support hydrologic forecasting and integrated water resources management in Africa. We present an operational probabilistic forecasting approach which uses public-domain climate forcing data and a hydrologic-hydrodynamic model which is entirely based on open-source software. Data assimilation techniques are used to inform the forecasts with the latest available observations. Forecasts are produced in real time for lead times of 0-7 days. The operational probabilistic forecasts are evaluated using a selection of performance statistics and indicators and the performance is compared to persistence and climatology benchmarks. The forecasting system delivers useful forecasts for the Kavango River, which are reliable and sharp. Results indicate that the value of the forecasts is greatest for intermediate lead times between 4 and 7 days.

Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically-based and distributed modelling schemes employing data assimilation techniques. However, few studies have attempted to develop operational probabilistic forecasting approaches for large and poorly gauged river basins. This study is funded by the European Space Agency under the TIGER-NET project. The objective of TIGER-NET is to develop open-source software tools to support integrated water resources management in Africa and to facilitate the use of satellite earth observation data in water management. We present an operational probabilistic forecasting approach which uses public-domain climate forcing data and a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model which is entirely based on open-source software. Data assimilation techniques are used to inform the forecasts with the latest available observations. Forecasts are produced in real time for lead times of 0 to 7 days. The operational probabilistic forecasts are evaluated using a selection of performance statistics and indicators. The forecasting system delivers competitive forecasts for the Kavango River, which are reliable and sharp. Results indicate that the value of the forecasts is greatest for intermediate lead times between 4 and 7 days.

The Water Observation and Information System (WOIS) is an open source software tool for monitoring, assessing and inventorying water resources in a cost-effective manner using Earth Observation (EO) data. The WOIS has been developed by, among others, the authors of this paper under the TIGER-NET project, which is a major component of the TIGER initiative of the European Space Agency (ESA) and whose main goal is to support the African Earth Observation Capacity for Water Resource Monitoring. TIGER-NET aims to support the satellite-based assessment and monitoring of water resources from watershed to cross-border basin levels through the provision of a free and powerful software package, with associated capacity building, to African authorities. More than 28 EO data processing solutions for water resource management tasks have been developed, in correspondence with the requirements of the participating key African water authorities, and demonstrated with dedicated case studies utilizing the software in operational scenarios. They cover a wide range of themes and information products, including basin-wide characterization of land and water resources, lake water quality monitoring, hydrological modeling and flood forecasting and mapping. For each monitoring task, step-by-step workflows were developed, which can either be adjusted by the user or largely automatized to feed into existing data streams and reporting schemes. The WOIS enables African water authorities to fully exploit the increasing EO capacity offered by current and upcoming generations of satellites, including the Sentinel missions.