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Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing global health concern. Identifying individuals in routine clinical care with new-onset CKD at high risk of rapid progression of the disease is imperative to guide allocation of prophylactic interventions, but community-based data are limited. We aimed to examine the risk of rapid progression, kidney failure, hospitalization and death among adults with incident CKD stage G3 and to clarify the association between predefined risk markers and rapid CKD progression. Methods Using plasma creatinine measurements for the entire Danish population from both hospitals and primary care, we conducted a nationwide, population-based cohort study, including adults in Denmark with incident CKD stage G3 in 2017–2020. We estimated 3-year risks of rapid progression (defined by a confirmed decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate of ≥5 mL/min/1.73 m2/year), kidney failure, all-cause hospitalization and death. To examine risk markers, we constructed a heat map showing the risk of rapid progression based on predefined markers: albuminuria, sex, diabetes and hypertension/cardiovascular disease. Results Among 133 443 individuals with incident CKD stage G3, the 3-year risk of rapid progression was 14.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.4–14.8]. The 3-year risks of kidney failure, hospitalization and death were 0.3% (95% CI 0.3–0.4), 53.3% (95% CI 53.0–53.6) and 18.1% (95% CI 17.9–18.4), respectively. In the heat map, the 3-year risk of rapid progression ranged from 7% in females without albuminuria, hypertension/cardiovascular disease or diabetes, to 46%–47% in males and females with severe albuminuria, diabetes and hypertension/cardiovascular disease. Conclusion This population-based study shows that CKD stage G3 is associated with considerable morbidity in a community-based setting and underscores the need for optimized prophylactic interventions among such patients. Moreover, our data highlight the potential of using easily accessible markers in routine clinical care to identify individuals who are at high risk of rapid progression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background There are no consensus definitions for evaluating kidney function recovery after acute kidney injury (AKI) and acute kidney disease (AKD), nor is it clear how recovery varies across populations and clinical subsets. We present a federated analysis of four population-based cohorts from Canada, Denmark and Scotland, 2011–18. Methods We identified incident AKD defined by serum creatinine changes within 48 h, 7 days and 90 days based on KDIGO AKI and AKD criteria. Separately, we applied changes up to 365 days to address widely used e-alert implementations that extend beyond the KDIGO AKI and AKD timeframes. Kidney recovery was based on resolution of AKD and a subsequent creatinine measurement below 1.2× baseline. We evaluated transitions between non-recovery, recovery and death up to 1 year; within age, sex and comorbidity subgroups; between subset AKD definitions; and across cohorts. Results There were 464 868 incident cases, median age 67–75 years. At 1 year, results were consistent across cohorts, with pooled mortalities for creatinine changes within 48 h, 7 days, 90 days and 365 days (and 95% confidence interval) of 40% (34%–45%), 40% (34%–46%), 37% (31%–42%) and 22% (16%–29%) respectively, and non-recovery of kidney function of 19% (15%–23%), 30% (24%–35%), 25% (21%–29%) and 37% (30%–43%), respectively. Recovery by 14 and 90 days was frequently not sustained at 1 year. Older males and those with heart failure or cancer were more likely to die than to experience sustained non-recovery, whereas the converse was true for younger females and those with diabetes. Conclusion Consistently across multiple cohorts, based on 1-year mortality and non-recovery, KDIGO AKD (up to 90 days) is at least prognostically similar to KDIGO AKI (7 days), and covers more people. Outcomes associated with AKD vary by age, sex and comorbidities such that older males are more likely to die, and younger females are less likely to recover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The baseline creatinine level is central in the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria of AKI, but baseline creatinine is often inconsistently defined or unavailable in AKI research. We examined the rate, characteristics, and 30-day mortality of AKI in five AKI cohorts created using different definitions of baseline creatinine., Methods: This nationwide cohort study included all individuals aged ≥18 years in Denmark with a creatinine measurement in 2017. Applying the KDIGO criteria, we created four AKI cohorts using four different baseline definitions (most recent, mean, or median value of outpatient creatinine 365-368 days before, or median value 90-98 days before, if available, otherwise median value 365-391 days before) and one AKI cohort not using a baseline value. AKI rate and the distribution of age, sex, baseline creatinine, and comorbidity were described for each AKI cohort, and the 30-day all-cause mortality was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method., Results: The study included 2,095,850 adults with at least one creatinine measurement in 2017. The four different baseline definitions identified between 61,189 and 62,597 AKI episodes. The AKI rate in these four cohorts was 13-14 per 1000 person-years, and 30-day all-cause mortality was 17%-18%. The cohort created without using a baseline creatinine included 37,659 AKI episodes, corresponding to an AKI rate of 8.2 per 1000 person-years and a 30-day mortality of 23%. All five cohorts were similar regarding age, sex, and comorbidity., Conclusions: In a population-based setting with available outpatient baseline creatinine, different baseline creatinine definitions revealed comparable AKI cohorts, whereas the lack of a baseline creatinine when defining AKI led to a smaller AKI cohort with a higher mortality. These findings underscore the importance of availability and consistent use of an outpatient baseline creatinine, particulary in studies of community-acquired AKI., Competing Interests: C. Christiansen reports that various companies provided research grants to Aarhus University. U. Heide-Jørgensen reports that the Department of Clinical Epidemiology at Aarhus University Hospital is involved in studies with funding from various companies as research grants to (and administered by) Aarhus University but that none of these studies are related to the current study. S. Vestergaard reports that the Department of Clinical Epidemiology is involved in studies with funding from various companies as research grants to (and administered by) Aarhus University. All remaining authors have nothing to disclose., (Copyright © 2022 by the American Society of Nephrology.)