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Fault geometry and slip rates are key input data for geologic deformation models, which are a fundamental component of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHAs). However, geologic sources for PSHA have traditionally been limited to faults with field-based slip rate constraints, which results in underrepresentation of known, but partially characterized, active faults. Here, we evaluate fault geometries and geologic fault slip rates for the western United States to construct a new geologic deformation model for the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model 2023 update (NSHM23). In previous NSHM iterations, only faults with published geologic slip rates were included. In the NSHM23 fault sections database compilation, this inclusion criterion was expanded to include faults without known slip rates. In this updated geologic deformation model, preferred slip rates and associated uncertainty distributions are incorporated for faults with slip rates derived from field studies. For faults without site-specific slip rates, we evaluate a suite of uncertainty distributions derived from broad slip rate categories in the U.S. Geological Survey Quaternary Fault and Fold Database. Preferred slip rate distributions are selected via comparison with geodetic strain rates in tectonic subregions. The resultant moment of the geologic deformation model is generally in deficit compared with the geodetic moment within each region. Primary advances in the NSHM23 geologic deformation model include the following: (1) slip rates are presented as preferred values with uncertainties rather than single values; (2) the representation of the western U.S. active fault network is more complete; and (3) the geologic deformation model leverages geodetic information to assess regional constraints on geologic fault slip rates.

The 2017 Mw 6.3 Jinghe earthquake represents one of the few large earthquakes that are well recorded by seismic instruments and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations in the seismically active Tian Shan region. In this study, we use the rupture fault solution (dip, dip direction, and slip sense) from seismologic and InSAR results, along with analysis of our collected surface mapping data, to determine the subsurface fault-plane geometry of the seismogenic Jinghenan fault. This geometric model, integrated with the coseismic slip distribution from seismologic and InSAR data, reveals that: (1) the Jinghenan fault extends downward from the land surface at a dip of ∼46° S (upper ramp), then bends to ∼42° S (lower ramp) at the depth of 9–13 km; (2) the coseismic rupture is confined within the Jinghenan lower ramp, and its upper limitation is approximately coincident with the fault-bend location. This coseismic rupture pattern and seismic behavior can be broadened to other active thrust faults within the Tian Shan, suggesting that, during moderate-strong earthquakes, such faults may only rupture partially in the down-dip extension, and the unruptured fault portion remains to pose high-seismic risk in the future.

The Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence occurred on 4 and 5 July 2019 within the eastern California shear zone of southern California. Both events produced extensive surface faulting and ground deformation within Indian Wells Valley and Searles Valley. In the weeks following the earthquakes, more than six dozen scientists from government, academia, and the private sector carefully documented the surface faulting and ground-deformation features. As of December 2019, we have compiled a total of more than 6000 ground observations; approximately 1500 of these simply note the presence or absence of fault rupture or ground failure, but the remainder include detailed descriptions and other documentation, including tens of thousands of photographs. More than 1100 of these observations also include quantitative field measurements of displacement sense and magnitude. These field observations were supplemented by mapping of fault rupture and ground-deformation features directly in the field as well as by interpreting the location and extent of surface faulting and ground deformation from optical imagery and geodetic image products. We identified greater than 68 km of fault rupture produced by both earthquakes as well as numerous sites of ground deformation resulting from liquefaction or slope failure. These observations comprise a dataset that is fundamental to understanding the processes that controlled this earthquake sequence and for improving earthquake hazard estimates in the region. This article documents the types of data collected during postearthquake field investigations, the compilation effort, and the digital data products resulting from these efforts.

The July 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes in southeastern California were characterized as surprising by some, because only ∼35% of the rupture occurred on previously mapped faults. Employing more detailed inspection of pre-event high-resolution topography and imagery in combination with field observations, we document evidence of active faulting in the landscape along the entire fault system. Scarps, deflected drainages, and lineaments and contrasts in topography, vegetation, and ground color demonstrate previous slip on a dense network of orthogonal faults, consistent with patterns of ground surface rupture observed in 2019. Not all of these newly mapped fault strands ruptured in 2019. Outcrop-scale field observations additionally reveal tufa lineaments and sheared Quaternary deposits. Neotectonic features are commonly short (

Surface rupture in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence occurred along two orthogonal cross faults and includes dominantly left-lateral and northeast-striking rupture in the Mw 6.4 foreshock and dominantly right-lateral and northwest-striking rupture in the Mw 7.1 mainshock. We present >650 field-based, surface-displacement observations for these ruptures and synthesize our results into cumulative along-strike displacement distributions. Using these data, we calculate displacement gradients and compare our results with historical strike-slip ruptures in the eastern California shear zone. For the Mw 6.4 rupture, we report 96 displacements measured along 18 km of northeast-striking rupture. Cumulative displacement curves for the rupture yield a mean left-lateral displacement of 0.3–0.5 m and maximum of 0.7–1.6 m. Net mean vertical displacement based on the difference of down-to-the-west (DTW) and down-to-the-east (DTE) displacement curves is close to zero (0.02 m DTW). The Mw 6.4 displacement distribution shows that the majority of displacement occurred southwest of the intersection with the Mw 7.1 rupture. The Mw 7.1 rupture is northwest-striking and 50 km long based on 576 field measurements. Displacement curves indicate a mean right-lateral displacement of 1.2–1.7 m and a maximum of 4.3–7.0 m. Net vertical displacement in the rupture averages 0.3 m DTW. The Mw 7.1 displacement distributions demonstrate that maximum displacement occurred along a 12-km-long portion of the fault near the Mw 7.1 epicenter, releasing 66% of the geologically based seismic moment along 24% of the total rupture length. Using our displacement distributions, we calculate kilometer-scale displacement gradients for the Mw 7.1 rupture. The steepest gradients (∼1–3 m/km) flank the 12-km-long region of maximum displacement. In contrast, gradients for the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers and 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes are

Decreasing deformation rates across the southern Tianshan have led to different seismogenic mechanisms and different proposed models to explain the orogen-scale fault kinematics. In this study, we focus on the segmentation of the Kepingtage fault by studying variations in the total offset and shortening rates of the Kepingtage fault along the southern front of the Tianshan. We used fault scarp mapping and trench excavations to assess fault segmentation and deformation on the Kepingtage fault. Our results indicate there are different shortening rates on the western (2.5–2.7 mm/year) versus the eastern segments (~ 0.3 mm/year), which are separated by the Piqiang tear fault. The decrease in shortening rates is not gradual; instead, it decreases sharply from west to east at the Piqiang fault. These segmentation boundaries are also supported by geodetic data and balanced structural restorations. Our data support a model where strike-slip faults accommodate step-changes in the deformation rates and the earthquake risks from west to east across the Tianshan.

Blind reverse faults are challenging to detect, and earthquake records can be elusive because deep fault slip does not break the surface along readily recognized scarps. The blind Reelfoot fault in the New Madrid seismic zone in the central United States has been the subject of extensive prior investigation; however, the extent of slip at the southern portion of the fault remains unconstrained. In this study, we use lidar to map terraces and lacustrine landforms in the Obion River valley and investigate apparent broad folding resulting from slip on the buried Reelfoot fault. We compare remote surface mapping results with three auger boreholes in the ∼24 ka Finley terrace and interpret apparent warping as due to tectonic folding and not stratigraphic thickening. We combine our results with historical records of coseismic lake formation that indicate surface deformation dammed the Obion River in the 1812 CE earthquake. Older terraces (deposited at least 35–55 ka) record progressive fold scarps ≥1, ≥2, and ≥8 m high indicating a long record of earthquakes predating the existing paleoseismic record. Broad, distributed folding above the Reelfoot fault into the Obion River valley is consistent with a deep active fault tip along the southern reaches of the fault. Our analyses indicate the entire length of the fault (≥70 km) is capable of rupture and is more consistent with longer rupture scenarios.

Although recognized as one of the most significant cultural transformations in North America, the reintroduction of the horse to the continent after AD 1492 has been rarely addressed by archaeological science. A key contributing factor behind this limited study is the apparent absence of equine skeletal remains from early historic archaeological contexts. Here, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a horse skeleton recovered in Lehi, Utah, originally attributed to the Pleistocene. Reanalysis of stratigraphic context and radiocarbon dating indicates a historic age for this horse (cal AD 1681–1939), linking it with Ute or other Indigenous groups, whereas osteological features demonstrate its use for mounted horseback riding—perhaps with a nonframe saddle. DNA analysis indicates that the animal was a female domestic horse, which was likely cared for as part of a breeding herd despite outliving its usefulness in transport. Finally, sequentially sampled stable carbon, oxygen, and strontium isotope values from tooth enamel (δ13C, δ18O, and 87Sr/86Sr) suggest that the horse was raised locally. These results show the utility of archaeological science as applied to horse remains in understanding Indigenous horse pastoralism, whereas consideration of the broader archaeological record suggests a pattern of misidentification of horse bones from early historic contexts. The Lehi Horse Materials and Methods - Radiocarbon Dating - Osteological Study - Isotope Analysis - DNA Analysis Results - Radiocarbon Dating - Osteological Study - Isotope Analysis - DNA Analysis Discussion - Early Historic Indigenous Horse Riding and Herding in the Great Basin - Mobility and Movement Conclusion

The interplay between sedimentation and salt rise around a diapir results in distinct geometries that can be used to determine the structural and stratigraphic history within a basin. Using new geologic mapping, measured stratigraphic sections, and subsurface interpretations of seismic and well logs, we describe circum-diapir stratal geometries and deformation at the Sinbad Valley salt wall in the proximal, northeastern Paradox Basin, southwest Colorado (USA). We interpret these geometries in the context of newly recognized halokinetic features and salt-associated deformation (megaflaps, counterregional faults, intrasalt inclusions), present a revised stratigraphic and salt tectonic history of Sinbad Valley diapir, and compare these proximal features to those at the distal Gypsum Valley diapir and infer local versus regional controls on their formation. The deposition of conglomerates within the Paradox Formation, now preserved as intrasalt inclusions in the center of Sinbad Valley, record early elevation of the Uncompahgre Uplift. Subsequent differential sedimentary loading resulted in initiation of passive diapirism during the late Pennsylvanian through the latest Triassic/Early Jurassic, facilitated by movement on a NE-dipping, listric, counterregional fault that extends for >22 km southeast of the diapir. Exposures of a steeply dipping stratal panel of late Pennsylvanian-aged Honaker Trail Formation along the southwestern flank of Sinbad Valley are interpreted as a megaflap, a preserved remnant of the diapir roof that was folded into a vertical position by drape-folding during passive salt rise. Significant lateral changes in the surface geometry and depositional facies of the megaflap define four structural domains that may result from a combination of radial faulting and varying degrees of folding via limb rotation or limb rotation with minor hinge migration. Using key differences between Sinbad Valley and Gypsum Valley salt walls in regard to the megaflap facies, timing of megaflap formation, and the presence of a Paradox Formation conglomeratic intrasalt inclusion, we conclude that salt wall position (i.e., proximal versus distal) within a basin influences the characteristics of some of these features, whereas the timing of other features (e.g., megaflap formation) appears to be similar throughout the basin suggesting a more regional control.

The tenet of the Milankovitch theory is that Northern Hemisphere solar insolation, controlled by Earth's orbital is responsible for cyclic climate variations. Eccentricity in this context is responsible for cyclic variability of 100 ka and may drive periodicity in climate change during the middle and late Pleistocene. Although abundant evidence exists for 100 ka cyclic climatic fluctuations driving glacial-interglacial cycles, our knowledge about the record of cyclic climatic changes preserved in terrestrial landscapes remains limited, especially over multi-millennial (several glacial-interglacial) timescales. The intermontane Yanqi Basin in the southeastern Tian Shan, Central Asia, preserves at least seven generations of alluvial surfaces spanning multiple glacial cycles and yields insights into the record of climatic fluctuations that lead to aggradation and incision of river systems. We complement existing chronologic data with two new cosmogenic 10Be depth profiles and four surface exposure ages of alluvial surface abandonment in the south Tian Shan piedmont within the Yanqi Basin. New surface-exposure dating reveals the successive abandonment of these surfaces with a 100 ka cyclicity between 5.1 ± 0.9 and ~550 ka and indicates that there were multiple aggradation-incision cycles. The superimposed 100 ka cycles of aggradation-incision are best explained by eccentricity-driven climate change. Within these cycles, sediment is produced during glaciations by glacial and periglacial erosion. However, due to the dry and cold conditions of the glacial periods in central Asia, there is little discharge available to transport and evacuate the sediment from the valleys to the piedmont. Later, during the glacial to interglacial transition, higher precipitation and high discharge due to glacial melt water resulted in higher transport capacity of the river beyond a threshold to evacuate sediment. Subsequent rapid incision occurs after the upstream sediment reservoir is depleted and its timing corresponds to the glacial to interglacial transition period in our study area. Compared with the aggradation and incision of the northern piedmont of the Tian Shan governed by the Westerlies, the sedimentary systems of the South Tian Shan piedmont within the Yanqi Basin are mainly controlled by eccentricity-driven glacial-interglacial cycles.

Recent studies on natural and experimental seismic faults have revealed that frictional heating plays an important role in earthquake dynamics. We report changes in the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL)/thermo-luminescence (TL) and electron spin resonance (ESR) signals in quartz fault gouge (grain size 90–250 μm, given dose 40 ± 5 Gy) after frictional experiments. Our results indicate that high-rate (2.0 m/s) frictional heating during seismic events can reset the 'geologic clocks' of fault rocks. Thus, the OSL/TL/ESR signal in quartz from natural fault zones has the potential to directly constrain the age of seismic events. Whereas low-rate (2.0 mm/s) frictional slip, even over long times (1000 s), does not reset the OSL/TL signals in quartz. However, low-rate slip can reset the Al center ESR signal, but not the E’ center signal.

While classic models for the emergence of pastoral groups in Inner Asia describe mounted, horse-borne herders sweeping across the Eurasian Steppes during the Early or Middle Bronze Age (ca. 3000–1500 BCE), the actual economic basis of many early pastoral societies in the region is poorly characterized. In this paper, we use collagen mass fingerprinting and ancient DNA analysis of some of the first stratified and directly dated archaeofaunal assemblages from Mongolia’s early pastoral cultures to undertake species identifications of this rare and highly fragmented material. Our results provide evidence for livestock-based, herding subsistence in Mongolia during the late 3rd and early 2nd millennia BCE. We observe no evidence for dietary exploitation of horses prior to the late Bronze Age, ca. 1200 BCE – at which point horses come to dominate ritual assemblages, play a key role in pastoral diets, and greatly influence pastoral mobility. In combination with the broader archaeofaunal record of Inner Asia, our analysis supports models for widespread changes in herding ecology linked to the innovation of horseback riding in Central Asia in the final 2nd millennium BCE. Such a framework can explain key broad-scale patterns in the movement of people, ideas, and material culture in Eurasian prehistory.

Cosmogenic burial dating enables dating of coarse-grained, Pliocene-Pleistocene sedimentary units that are typically difficult to date with traditional methods, such as magnetostratigraphy. In the actively deforming western Tarim Basin in NW China, Pliocene-Pleistocene conglomerates were dated at eight sites, integrating Al-26/Be-10 burial dating with previously published magnetostratigraphic sections. These samples were collected from growth strata on the flanks of growing folds and from sedimentary units beneath active faults to place timing constraints on the initiation of deformation of structures within the basin and on shortening rates on active faults. These new basin-fill and growthstrata ages document the late Neogene and Quaternary growth of the Pamir and Tian Shan orogens between >5 and 1 Ma and delineate the eastward propagation of deformation at rates up to 115 km/m.y. and basinward growth of both mountain belts at rates up to 12 km/m.y.

Flexural slip plays an important role in accommodating fold growth, and its topographic expression, flexural-slip fault (FSF) scarps, may be one of the most commonly occurring secondary structures in areas dominated by active thrusts and folds. Where FSF scarps are present and what factors control their occurrence, however, are typically poorly known. Through an investigation of clearly-expressed FSF scarps, well-preserved fluvial terraces, and well-exposed bedrock at eight sites in the Pamir-Tian Shan convergent zone and Kuche fold belt, NW China, we summarize the most favorable conditions for active flexural-slip faulting. Our study yields six key results. First, flexural slip operates commonly in well-layered beds, although uncommonly can occur in massive, poorly-layered beds as well. Second, in well-layered beds, the slip surface is commonly located either (a) close to the contact of competent and incompetent beds or (b) within thin incompetent beds. Third, FSF scarps are always found overlying steep beds with dips of ~30-100°. Fourth, slip surfaces are typically spaced between ~10 and 440 m, but can reach up to ~600 m. Fifth, FSF scarps at most sites can be observed far away from the hinge-migrated fold scarps, suggesting that, compared to hinge migration, limb rotation is generally required to accumulate flexural slip and produce associated topographic scarps. Finally, a higher regional convergent rate seems to facilitate the creation of FSF scarps more often than lower rates, whereas well-preserved, old terraces capped by thin deposits are more likely to record FSF scarps than unevenly-preserved, young terraces with thick sedimentary caps.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Fluvial planation surfaces, such as straths, commonly serve as recorders of climatic and tectonic changes and are formed by the lateral erosion of rivers, a process that remains poorly understood. Here we present a study of kilometer-wide, fluvially eroded, low-relief surfaces on rapidly uplifting folds in the foreland of the southwestern Tian Shan. A combination of field work, digital elevation model analysis, and dating of fluvial deposits reveals that despite an arid climate and rapid average rock-uplift rates of 1-3mm/yr, rivers cut extensive (>1-2km wide) surfaces with typical height variations of 2-6kyr. The extent of this beveling varies in space and time, such that different beveling episodes affect individual structures. Between times of planation, beveled surfaces are abandoned, incised, and deformed across the folds. In a challenge to models that link strath cutting and abandonment primarily to changes in river incision rates, we demonstrate that lateral erosion rates of antecedent streams crossing the folds have to vary by more than 1 order of magnitude to explain the creation of beveled platforms in the past and their incision at the present day. These variations do not appear to covary with climate variability and might be caused by relatively small (much less than an order of magnitude) changes in sediment or water fluxes. It remains uncertain in which settings variations in lateral bedrock erosion rates predominate over changes in vertical erosion rates. Therefore, when studying fluvial planation and strath terraces, variability of both lateral and vertical erosion rates should be considered.

The Pamir-Tian Shan collision zone in the western Tarim Basin, northwest China, formed from rapid and ongoing convergence in response to the Indo-Eurasian collision. The arid landscape preserves suites of fluvial terraces crossing structures active since the Late Neogene that create fault and fold scarps recording Quaternary deformation. Using geologic and geomorphic mapping, dGPS surveys of deformed terraces, and OSL dating, we create a synthesis of the active structures that delineate the timing, rate, and migration of Quaternary deformation during ongoing convergence. New deformation rates on eight faults and folds, when combined with previous studies, highlight the spatial and temporal patterns of deformation within the Pamir-Tian Shan convergence zone during the Quaternary. Terraces spanning ~130 to ~8 ka record deformation rates between ~0.1 and 5.6 mm/yr on individual structures. In the westernmost Tarim Basin, where the Pamir and Tian Shan are already juxtaposed, the fastest rates occur on actively deforming structures at the interface of the Pamir-Tian Shan orogens. Farther east, as the separation between the Pamir-Tian Shan orogens increases, the deformation has not been concentrated on a single structure, but rather has been concurrently distributed across a zone of faults and folds in the Kashi-Atushi fold-and-thrust belt and along the NE Pamir margin, where shortening rates vary on individual structures during the Quaternary. Although numerous structures accommodate the shortening and the locus of deformation shifts during the Quaternary, the total shortening across the western Tarim Basin has remained steady and approximately matches the current geodetic rate of 6-9 mm/yr.