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Abstract Optic neuritis (ON) is associated with numerous immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, but 50% patients are ultimately diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS). Differentiating MS-ON from non-MS-ON acutely is challenging but important; non-MS ON often requires urgent immunosuppression to preserve vision. Using data from the United Kingdom Biobank we showed that combining an MS-genetic risk score (GRS) with demographic risk factors (age, sex) significantly improved MS prediction in undifferentiated ON; one standard deviation of MS-GRS increased the Hazard of MS 1.3-fold (95% confidence interval 1.07–1.55, P

Abstract Background Higher maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) is associated with adverse pregnancy and perinatal outcomes. However, whether these associations are causal remains unclear. Methods We explored the relation of maternal pre-/early-pregnancy BMI with 20 pregnancy and perinatal outcomes by integrating evidence from three different approaches (i.e. multivariable regression, Mendelian randomisation, and paternal negative control analyses), including data from over 400,000 women. Results All three analytical approaches supported associations of higher maternal BMI with lower odds of maternal anaemia, delivering a small-for-gestational-age baby and initiating breastfeeding, but higher odds of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, gestational diabetes, pre-labour membrane rupture, induction of labour, caesarean section, large-for-gestational age, high birthweight, low Apgar score at 1 min, and neonatal intensive care unit admission. For example, higher maternal BMI was associated with higher risk of gestational hypertension in multivariable regression (OR = 1.67; 95% CI = 1.63, 1.70 per standard unit in BMI) and Mendelian randomisation (OR = 1.59; 95% CI = 1.38, 1.83), which was not seen for paternal BMI (OR = 1.01; 95% CI = 0.98, 1.04). Findings did not support a relation between maternal BMI and perinatal depression. For other outcomes, evidence was inconclusive due to inconsistencies across the applied approaches or substantial imprecision in effect estimates from Mendelian randomisation. Conclusions Our findings support a causal role for maternal pre-/early-pregnancy BMI on 14 out of 20 adverse pregnancy and perinatal outcomes. Pre-conception interventions to support women maintaining a healthy BMI may reduce the burden of obstetric and neonatal complications. Funding Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, European Research Council, National Institutes of Health, National Institute for Health Research, Research Council of Norway, Wellcome Trust.

Abstract Background Mental health conditions represent one of the major groups of non-transmissible diseases. Physical activity (PA) and sedentary time (ST) have been shown to affect mental health outcomes in opposite directions. In this study, we use accelerometery-derived measures of PA and ST from the UK Biobank (UKB) and depression, anxiety and well-being data from the UKB mental health questionnaire as well as published summary statistics to explore the causal associations between these phenotypes. Methods We used MRlap to test if objectively measured PA and ST associate with mental health outcomes using UKB data and summary statistics from published genome-wide association studies. We also tested for bidirectional associations. We performed sex stratified as well as sensitivity analyses. Results Genetically instrumented higher PA was associated with lower odds of depression (OR = 0.92; 95% CI: 0.88, 0.97) and depression severity (beta = − 0.11; 95% CI: − 0.18, − 0.04), Genetically instrumented higher ST was associated higher odds of anxiety (OR = 2.59; 95% CI: 1.10, 4.60). PA was associated with higher well-being (beta = 0.11, 95% CI: 0.04; 0.18) and ST with lower well-being (beta = − 0.18; 95% CI: − 0.32, − 0.03). Similar findings were observed when stratifying by sex. There was evidence for a bidirectional relationship, with higher genetic liability to depression associated with lower PA (beta = − 0.25, 95% CI: − 0.42; − 0.08) and higher well-being associated with higher PA (beta = 0.15; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.25). Conclusions We have demonstrated the bidirectional effects of both PA and ST on a range of mental health outcomes using objectively measured predictors and MR methods for causal inference. Our findings support a causal role for PA and ST in the development of mental health problems and in affecting well-being.

When collecting marker-based motion capture data from clinical populations, speed of collection and comfort for the participant is a priority. This could be achieved by attaching markers to motion capture Velcro suits, as opposed to the skin. This study aimed to ascertain the reliability of sagittal-plane gait parameters estimated using Plug-in Gait (PiG) and Conventional Gait Model 2 (CGM2) marker sets from data collected in Suited and Non-suited (markers placed onto skin) conditions. For ten participants, markers were placed based on PiG and CGM2 models and data captured during a 2-min treadmill walk. Trials were repeated in suited and non-suited conditions. PiG ankle flexion/extension measurements had poor/moderate reliability (Non-suited ICC = 0.531, Suited ICC = 0.435). CGM2 ankle flexion/extension measurements had good/excellent reliability (Non-suited ICC = 0.916, Suited ICC = 0.900). There were significant differences in minimal detectable change (MDC) between conditions at the ankle for PiG (Non-suited MDC = 2.32°, Suited MDC = 18.90°), but not for CGM2 (Non-suited MDC = 0.63°, Suited MDC = 0.95°). When using CGM2, knee (Non-suited ICC = 0.878, Suited ICC = 0.855) and hip (Non-suited ICC = 0.897, Suited ICC = 0.948) showed good/excellent reliability in both conditions. A motion capture suit is not a reliable solution when collecting joint angle data using the PiG model but is reliable enough to consider when using the CGM2 model.

Abstract Falls represent a huge health and economic burden. Whilst many factors are associated with fall risk (e.g. obesity and physical inactivity) there is limited evidence for the causal role of these risk factors. Here, we used hospital and general practitioner records in UK Biobank, deriving a balance specific fall phenotype in 20,789 cases and 180,658 controls, performed a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) and used Mendelian Randomisation (MR) to test causal pathways. GWAS indicated a small but significant SNP-based heritability (4.4%), identifying one variant (rs429358) in APOE at genome-wide significance (P

Abstract Background Vasomotor symptoms (VMS) can often significantly impact women’s quality of life at menopause. In vivo studies have shown that increased neurokinin B (NKB) / neurokinin 3 receptor (NK3R) signalling contributes to VMS, with previous genetic studies implicating the TACR3 gene locus that encodes NK3R. Large-scale genomic analyses offer the possibility of biological insights but few such studies have collected data on VMS, while proxy phenotypes such as hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use are likely to be affected by changes in clinical practice. We investigated the genetic basis of VMS by analysing routinely-collected health records. Methods We performed a GWAS of VMS derived from linked primary-care records and cross-sectional self-reported HRT use in up to 153,152 women from UK Biobank, a population-based cohort. In a subset of this cohort (n = 39,356), we analysed exome-sequencing data to test the association with VMS of rare deleterious genetic variants. Finally, we used Mendelian randomisation analysis to investigate the reasons for HRT use over time. Results Our GWAS of health-records derived VMS identified a genetic signal near TACR3 associated with a lower risk of VMS (OR=0.76 (95% CI 0.72,0.80) per A allele, P=3.7x10-27), which was consistent with previous studies, validating this approach. Conditional analyses demonstrated independence of genetic signals for puberty timing and VMS at the TACR3 locus, including a rare variant predicted to reduce functional NK3R levels that was associated with later menarche (P = 5 × 10–9) but showed no association with VMS (P = 0.6). Younger menopause age was causally-associated with greater HRT use before 2002 but not after. Conclusions We provide support for TACR3 in the genetic basis of VMS but unexpectedly find that rare genomic variants predicted to lower NK3R levels did not modify VMS, despite the proven efficacy of NK3R antagonists. Using genomics we demonstrate changes in genetic associations with HRT use over time, arising from a change in clinical practice since the early 2000s, which is likely to reflect a switch from preventing post-menopausal complications in women with earlier menopause to primarily treating VMS. Our study demonstrates that integrating routinely-collected primary care health records and genomic data offers great potential for exploring the genetic basis of symptoms.

Abstract Background Major depressive disorder (MDD) has a significant impact on global burden of disease. Complications in clinical management can occur when response to pharmacological modalities is considered inadequate and symptoms persist (treatment-resistant depression (TRD)). We aim to investigate inflammation, proxied by C-reactive protein (CRP) levels, and body mass index (BMI) as putative causal risk factors for depression and subsequent treatment resistance, leveraging genetic information to avoid confounding via Mendelian randomisation (MR). Methods We used the European UK Biobank subcohort ( $$n=451,025$$ n = 451 , 025 ), the mental health questionnaire (MHQ) and clinical records. For treatment resistance, a previously curated phenotype based on general practitioner (GP) records and prescription data was employed. We applied univariable and multivariable MR models to genetically predict the exposures and assess their causal contribution to a range of depression outcomes. We used a range of univariable, multivariable and mediation MR models techniques to address our research question with maximum rigour. In addition, we developed a novel statistical procedure to apply pleiotropy-robust multivariable MR to one sample data and employed a Bayesian bootstrap procedure to accurately quantify estimate uncertainty in mediation analysis which outperforms standard approaches in sparse binary outcomes. Given the flexibility of the one-sample design, we evaluated age and sex as moderators of the effects. Results In univariable MR models, genetically predicted BMI was positively associated with depression outcomes, including MDD ( $$\beta$$ β ( $$95\%$$ 95 % CI): 0.133(0.072, 0.205)) and TRD (0.347(0.002, 0.682)), with a larger magnitude in females and with age acting as a moderator of the effect of BMI on severity of depression (0.22(0.050, 0.389)). Multivariable MR analyses suggested an independent causal effect of BMI on TRD not through CRP (0.395(0.004, 0.732)). Our mediation analyses suggested that the effect of CRP on severity of depression was partly mediated by BMI. Individuals with TRD ( $$n=2199$$ n = 2199 ) observationally had higher CRP and BMI compared with individuals with MDD alone and healthy controls. Discussion Our work supports the assertion that BMI exerts a causal effect on a range of clinical and questionnaire-based depression phenotypes, with the effect being stronger in females and in younger individuals. We show that this effect is independent of inflammation proxied by CRP levels as the effects of CRP do not persist when jointly estimated with BMI. This is consistent with previous evidence suggesting that overweight contributed to depression even in the absence of any metabolic consequences. It appears that BMI exerts an effect on TRD that persists when we account for BMI influencing MDD.

Abstract Previous studies have linked higher body mass index (BMI) to lower subjective well-being in adult European ancestry populations. However, our understanding of these relationships across different populations is limited. Here, we investigated the association between BMI and well-being in people of (a) East Asian and (b) European ancestry in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) and UK Biobank (UKB), respectively. Mendelian randomisation (MR) methods were used to test the relationship between BMI with (a) health satisfaction and (b) life satisfaction. One-sample MR enabled us to test effects in men and women separately and to test the role of cultural contexts by stratifying our analyses by urban and rural home location in both China and the UK. Further, we implemented a control function method to test the linearity of the BMI-well-being relationship. We found evidence of different associations between BMI and well-being in individuals of East Asian versus European ancestry. For example, a genetically instrumented higher BMI tentatively associated with higher health satisfaction in people of East Asian ancestry, especially in females (ß: 0.041, 95% CI: 0.002, 0.081). In contrast, there was a robust inverse association between higher genetically instrumented BMI and health satisfaction in all European ancestry UKB participants (ß: −0.183, 95% CI: −0.200, −0.165, P difference

Findings from genome-wide association studies have facilitated the generation of genetic predictors for many common human phenotypes. Stratifying individuals misaligned to a genetic predictor based on common variants may be important for follow-up studies that aim to identify alternative causal factors. Using genome-wide imputed genetic data, we aimed to classify 158,951 unrelated individuals from the UK Biobank as either concordant or deviating from two well-measured phenotypes. We first applied our methods to standing height: our primary analysis classified 244 individuals (0.15%) as misaligned to their genetically predicted height. We show that these individuals are enriched for self-reporting being shorter or taller than average at age 10, diagnosed congenital malformations, and rare loss-of-function variants in genes previously catalogued as causal for growth disorders. Secondly, we apply our methods to LDL cholesterol (LDL-C). We classified 156 (0.12%) individuals as misaligned to their genetically predicted LDL-C and show that these individuals were enriched for both clinically actionable cardiovascular risk factors and rare genetic variants in genes previously shown to be involved in metabolic processes. Individuals whose LDL-C was higher than expected based on the genetic predictor were also at higher risk of developing coronary artery disease and type-two diabetes, even after adjustment for measured LDL-C, BMI and age, suggesting upward deviation from genetically predicted LDL-C is indicative of generally poor health. Our results remained broadly consistent when performing sensitivity analysis based on a variety of parametric and non-parametric methods to define individuals deviating from polygenic expectation. Our analyses demonstrate the potential importance of quantitatively identifying individuals for further follow-up based on deviation from genetic predictions.

Abstract Background Extensive evidence links higher body mass index (BMI) to higher odds of depression in people of European ancestry. However, our understanding of the relationship across different settings and ancestries is limited. Here, we test the relationship between body composition and depression in people of East Asian ancestry. Methods Multiple Mendelian randomisation (MR) methods were used to test the relationship between (a) BMI and (b) waist-hip ratio (WHR) with depression. Firstly, we performed two-sample MR using genetic summary statistics from a recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) of depression (with 15,771 cases and 178,777 controls) in people of East Asian ancestry. We selected 838 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) correlated with BMI and 263 SNPs correlated with WHR as genetic instrumental variables to estimate the causal effect of BMI and WHR on depression using the inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method. We repeated these analyses stratifying by home location status: China versus UK or USA. Secondly, we performed one-sample MR in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) in 100,377 participants. This allowed us to test the relationship separately in (a) males and females and (b) urban and rural dwellers. We also examined (c) the linearity of the BMI-depression relationship. Results Both MR analyses provided evidence that higher BMI was associated with lower odds of depression. For example, a genetically-instrumented 1-SD higher BMI in the CKB was associated with lower odds of depressive symptoms [OR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.63, 0.95]. There was evidence of differences according to place of residence. Using the IVW method, higher BMI was associated with lower odds of depression in people of East Asian ancestry living in China but there was no evidence for an association in people of East Asian ancestry living in the USA or UK. Furthermore, higher genetic BMI was associated with differential effects in urban and rural dwellers within China. Conclusions This study provides the first MR evidence for an inverse relationship between BMI and depression in people of East Asian ancestry. This contrasts with previous findings in European populations and therefore the public health response to obesity and depression is likely to need to differ based on sociocultural factors for example, ancestry and place of residence. This highlights the importance of setting-specific causality when using genetic causal inference approaches and data from diverse populations to test hypotheses. This is especially important when the relationship tested is not purely biological and may involve sociocultural factors.

A recent World Health Organization report states that at least 40% of all cancer cases may be preventable, with smoking, alcohol consumption, and obesity identified as three of the most important modifiable lifestyle factors. Given the significant decline in smoking rates, particularly within developed countries, other potentially modifiable risk factors for head and neck cancer warrant investigation. Obesity and related metabolic disorders such as type 2 diabetes (T2D) and hypertension have been associated with head and neck cancer risk in multiple observational studies. However, adiposity has also been correlated with smoking, with bias, confounding or reverse causality possibly explaining these findings. To overcome the challenges of observational studies, we conducted two-sample Mendelian randomization (inverse variance weighted [IVW] method) using genetic variants which were robustly associated with adiposity, glycaemic and blood pressure traits in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Outcome data were taken from the largest available GWAS of 6034 oral and oropharyngeal cases, with 6585 controls. We found limited evidence of a causal effect of genetically proxied body mass index (BMI; OR IVW = 0.89, 95% CI 0.72–1.09, p = 0.26 per 1 standard deviation in BMI [4.81kg/m2]) on oral and oropharyngeal cancer risk. Similarly, there was limited evidence for related traits including T2D and hypertension. Small effects cannot be excluded given the lack of power to detect them in currently available GWAS.

Abstract Background Human papilloma virus infection is known to influence oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) risk, likely via sexual transmission. However, sexual behaviour has been correlated with other risk factors including smoking and alcohol, meaning independent effects are difficult to establish. We aimed to evaluate the causal effect of sexual behaviour on the risk of OPC using Mendelian randomization (MR). Methods Genetic variants robustly associated with age at first sex (AFS) and the number of sexual partners (NSP) were used to perform both univariable and multivariable MR analyses with summary data on 2641 OPC cases and 6585 controls, obtained from the largest available genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Given the potential for genetic pleiotropy, we performed a number of sensitivity analyses: (i) MR methods to account for horizontal pleiotropy, (ii) MR of sexual behaviours on positive (cervical cancer and seropositivity for Chlamydia trachomatis) and negative control outcomes (lung and oral cancer), (iii) Causal Analysis Using Summary Effect estimates (CAUSE), to account for correlated and uncorrelated horizontal pleiotropic effects, (iv) multivariable MR analysis to account for the effects of smoking, alcohol, risk tolerance and educational attainment. Results In univariable MR, we found evidence supportive of an effect of both later AFS (IVW OR = 0.4, 95%CI (0.3, 0.7), per standard deviation (SD), p =

Large BioBank studies are commonly used in GWAS, but may be biased by factors affecting participation and dropout. Here the authors show that some of the factors affecting participation may have underlying genetic components.

Alcohol and smoking are both associated with oral/oropharyngeal cancer risk, but independent effects are unclear given their relatedness. Here, the authors use multivariable Mendelian randomization to show that both alcohol and smoking are independently causal for oral/oropharyngeal cancer.

Background: IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the commonest glomerulonephritis worldwide. Its prevalence is difficult to estimate, as people with mild disease do not commonly receive a biopsy diagnosis. We aimed to generate an IgA nephropathy genetic risk score (IgAN-GRS) and estimate the proportion of people with hematuria who had IgAN in the UK Biobank (UKBB). Methods: We calculated an IgAN-GRS using 14 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) drawn from the largest European Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) and validated the IgAN-GRS in 464 biopsy-proven IgAN European cases from the UK Glomerulonephritis DNA Bank (UKGDB) and in 379,767 Europeans in the UKBB. We used the mean of IgAN-GRS to calculate the proportion of potential IgAN in 14,181 with hematuria and other nonspecific renal phenotypes from 379,767 Europeans in the UKBB. Results: The IgAN-GRS was higher in the IgAN cohort (4.30; 95% confidence interval [95% CI: 4.23–4.38) than in controls (3.98; 3.97–3.98; P < 0.0001). The mean GRS in UKBB participants with hematuria (n = 12,858) was higher (4.04; 4.02–4.06) than UKBB controls (3.98; 3.97–3.98; P < 0.0001) and higher in those with hematuria, hypertension, and microalbuminuria (n = 1323) (4.07; 4.02–4.13) versus (3.98; 3.97–3.98; P = 0.0003). Using the difference in these means, we estimated that IgAN accounted for 19% of noncancer hematuria and 28% with hematuria, hypertension, and microalbuminuria in UKBB. Conclusions: We used an IgAN-GRS to estimate the prevalence of IgAN contributing to common phenotypes that are not always biopsied. The noninvasive use of polygenic risk in this setting may have further utility to identify likely etiology of nonspecific renal phenotypes in large population cohorts.

Background: Some individuals living with obesity may be relatively metabolically healthy, whilst others suffer from multiple conditions that may be linked to adverse metabolic effects or other factors. The extent to which the adverse metabolic component of obesity contributes to disease compared to the non-metabolic components is often uncertain. We aimed to use Mendelian randomisation (MR) and specific genetic variants to separately test the causal roles of higher adiposity with and without its adverse metabolic effects on diseases. Methods: We selected 37 chronic diseases associated with obesity and genetic variants associated with different aspects of excess weight. These genetic variants included those associated with metabolically ‘favourable adiposity’ (FA) and ‘unfavourable adiposity’ (UFA) that are both associated with higher adiposity but with opposite effects on metabolic risk. We used these variants and two sample MR to test the effects on the chronic diseases. Results: MR identified two sets of diseases. First, 11 conditions where the metabolic effect of higher adiposity is the likely primary cause of the disease. Here, MR with the FA and UFA genetics showed opposing effects on risk of disease: coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease, hypertension, stroke, type 2 diabetes, polycystic ovary syndrome, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease, renal cancer, and gout. Second, 9 conditions where the non-metabolic effects of excess weight (e.g. mechanical effect) are likely a cause. Here, MR with the FA genetics, despite leading to lower metabolic risk, and MR with the UFA genetics, both indicated higher disease risk: osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, gastro-oesophageal reflux disease, gallstones, adult-onset asthma, psoriasis, deep vein thrombosis, and venous thromboembolism. Conclusions: Our results assist in understanding the consequences of higher adiposity uncoupled from its adverse metabolic effects, including the risks to individuals with high body mass index who may be relatively metabolically healthy. Funding: Diabetes UK, UK Medical Research Council, World Cancer Research Fund, National Cancer Institute.

Background Obesity is associated with long‐term health consequences including cardiovascular disease. Separating the independent effects of childhood and adulthood obesity on cardiovascular disease risk is challenging as children with obesity typically remain overweight throughout the lifecourse. Methods and Results This study used 2‐sample univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization to estimate the effect of childhood body size both independently and after accounting for adult body size on 12 endpoints across the cardiovascular disease disease spectrum. Univariable analyses identified strong evidence of a total effect between genetically predicted childhood body size and increased risk of atherosclerosis, atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, heart failure, hypertension, myocardial infarction, peripheral artery disease, and varicose veins. However, evidence of a direct effect was weak after accounting for adult body size using multivariable Mendelian randomization, suggesting that childhood body size indirectly increases risk of these 8 disease outcomes via the pathway involving adult body size. Conclusions These findings suggest that the effect of genetically predicted childhood body size on the cardiovascular disease outcomes analyzed in this study are a result of larger body size persisting into adulthood. Further research is necessary to ascertain the critical timepoints where, if ever, the detrimental impact of obesity initiated in early life begins to become immutable.

Frozen shoulder is a painful condition that often requires surgery and affects up to 5% of individuals aged 40–60 years. Little is known about the causes of the condition, but diabetes is a strong risk factor. To begin to understand the biological mechanisms involved, we aimed to identify genetic variants associated with frozen shoulder and to use Mendelian randomization to test the causal role of diabetes. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of frozen shoulder in the UK Biobank using data from 10,104 cases identified from inpatient, surgical and primary care codes. We used data from FinnGen for replication and meta-analysis. We used one-sample and two-sample Mendelian randomization approaches to test for a causal association of diabetes with frozen shoulder. We identified five genome-wide significant loci. The most significant locus (lead SNP rs28971325; OR = 1.20, [95% CI: 1.16–1.24], p = 5x10-29) contained WNT7B. This variant was also associated with Dupuytren’s disease (OR = 2.31 [2.24, 2.39], p

A main symptom of chronic insufficient sleep is excessive daytime sleepiness. Here, Wang et al. report 42 genome-wide significant loci for self-reported daytime sleepiness in 452,071 individuals from the UK Biobank that cluster into two biological subtypes of either sleep propensity or sleep fragmentation.

Quality, quantity and timing of sleep are important factors for overall human health. Here, the authors perform GWAS for sleep traits estimated using wearable accelerometers and identify 47 genetic associations, including 26 novel associations for measures of sleep quality and 10 for nocturnal sleep duration.

Sleep is essential for homeostasis and insufficient or excessive sleep are associated with adverse outcomes. Here, the authors perform GWAS for self-reported habitual sleep duration in adults, supported by accelerometer-derived measures, and identify genetic correlation with psychiatric and metabolic traits

GWAS have previously found 24 genomic loci associated with chronotype, an individual’s preference for early or late sleep timing. Here, the authors identify 327 additional loci in a sample of 697,828 individuals and further explore the relationships of chronotype with metabolic and psychiatric diseases.

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), which includes cancers of the oral cavity and oropharynx, is a cause of substantial global morbidity and mortality. Strategies to reduce disease burden include discovery of novel therapies and repurposing of existing drugs. Statins are commonly prescribed for lowering circulating cholesterol by inhibiting HMG-CoA reductase (HMGCR). Results from some observational studies suggest that statin use may reduce HNSCC risk. We appraised the relationship of genetically-proxied cholesterol-lowering drug targets and other circulating lipid traits with oral (OC) and oropharyngeal (OPC) cancer risk using two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR). For the primary analysis, germline genetic variants in HMGCR, NPC1L1, CETP, PCSK9 and LDLR were used to proxy the effect of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering therapies. In secondary analyses, variants were used to proxy circulating levels of other lipid traits in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of 188,578 individuals. Both primary and secondary analyses aimed to estimate the downstream causal effect of cholesterol lowering therapies on OC and OPC risk. The second sample for MR was taken from a GWAS of 6,034 OC and OPC cases and 6,585 controls (GAME-ON). Analyses were replicated in UK Biobank, using 839 OC and OPC cases and 372,016 controls and the results of the GAME-ON and UK Biobank analyses combined in a fixed-effects meta-analysis. We found limited evidence of a causal effect of genetically-proxied LDL-C lowering using HMGCR, NPC1L1, CETP or other circulating lipid traits on either OC or OPC risk. Genetically-proxied PCSK9 inhibition equivalent to a 1 mmol/L (38.7 mg/dL) reduction in LDL-C was associated with an increased risk of OC and OPC combined (OR 1.8 95%CI 1.2, 2.8, p = 9.31 x10-05), with good concordance between GAME-ON and UK Biobank (I2 = 22%). Effects for PCSK9 appeared stronger in relation to OPC (OR 2.6 95%CI 1.4, 4.9) than OC (OR 1.4 95%CI 0.8, 2.4). LDLR variants, resulting in genetically-proxied reduction in LDL-C equivalent to a 1 mmol/L (38.7 mg/dL), reduced the risk of OC and OPC combined (OR 0.7, 95%CI 0.5, 1.0, p = 0.006). A series of pleiotropy-robust and outlier detection methods showed that pleiotropy did not bias our findings. We found limited evidence for a role of cholesterol-lowering in OC and OPC risk, suggesting previous observational results may have been confounded. There was some evidence that genetically-proxied inhibition of PCSK9 increased risk, while lipid-lowering variants in LDLR, reduced risk of combined OC and OPC. This result suggests that the mechanisms of action of PCSK9 on OC and OPC risk may be independent of its cholesterol lowering effects; however, this was not supported uniformly across all sensitivity analyses and further replication of this finding is required.

Summary: Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) is a hormone that has insulin-sensitizing properties. Some trials of FGF21 analogs show weight loss and lipid-lowering effects. Recent studies have shown that a common allele in the FGF21 gene alters the balance of macronutrients consumed, but there was little evidence of an effect on metabolic traits. We studied a common FGF21 allele (A:rs838133) in 451,099 people from the UK Biobank study, aiming to use the human allele to inform potential adverse and beneficial effects of targeting FGF21. We replicated the association between the A allele and higher percentage carbohydrate intake. We then showed that this allele is more strongly associated with higher blood pressure and waist-hip ratio, despite an association with lower total body-fat percentage, than it is with BMI or type 2 diabetes. These human phenotypes of variation in the FGF21 gene will inform research into FGF21’s mechanisms and therapeutic potential. : Drugs targeting the hormone FGF21 may have beneficial health effects. Variations in human DNA in the FGF21 gene provide an indication of what those effects may be. Here, we show that variation in the FGF21 gene is associated with higher blood pressure and altered body shape, despite lower total body-fat percentage. Keywords: FGF21, BMI, waist-hip ratio, blood pressure, body fat, allele, genetic variant, UK Biobank

Individual SNPs have small effects on anthropometric traits, yet the impact of CNVs has remained largely unknown. Here, Kutalik and co-workers perform a large-scale genome-wide meta-analysis of structural variation and find rare CNVs associated with height, weight and BMI with large effect sizes.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have become a key tool to discover genetic markers for complex traits; however, environmental factors that interact with genes are rarely considered. Here, the authors conduct a GWAS of obesity traits, and find that smoking may alter genetic susceptibilities.

BackgroundSystematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have suggested that maternal vitamin D (25[OH]D) and calcium supplementation increase birth weight. However, limitations of many trials were highlighted in the reviews. Our aim was to combine genetic and RCT data to estimate causal effects of these two maternal traits on offspring birth weight.Methods and findingsWe performed two-sample mendelian randomisation (MR) using genetic instrumental variables associated with 25(OH)D and calcium that had been identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS; sample 1; N = 122,123 for 25[OH]D and N = 61,275 for calcium). Associations between these maternal genetic variants and offspring birth weight were calculated in the UK Biobank (UKB) (sample 2; N = 190,406). We used data on mother-child pairs from two United Kingdom birth cohorts (combined N = 5,223) in sensitivity analyses to check whether results were influenced by fetal genotype, which is correlated with the maternal genotype (r ≈ 0.5). Further sensitivity analyses to test the reliability of the results included MR-Egger, weighted-median estimator, 'leave-one-out', and multivariable MR analyses. We triangulated MR results with those from RCTs, in which we used randomisation to supplementation with vitamin D (24 RCTs, combined N = 5,276) and calcium (6 RCTs, combined N = 543) as an instrumental variable to determine the effects of 25(OH)D and calcium on birth weight. In the main MR analysis, there was no strong evidence of an effect of maternal 25(OH)D on birth weight (difference in mean birth weight -0.03 g [95% CI -2.48 to 2.42 g, p = 0.981] per 10% higher maternal 25[OH]D). The effect estimate was consistent across our MR sensitivity analyses. Instrumental variable analyses applied to RCTs suggested a weak positive causal effect (5.94 g [95% CI 2.15-9.73, p = 0.002] per 10% higher maternal 25[OH]D), but this result may be exaggerated because of risk of bias in the included RCTs. The main MR analysis for maternal calcium also suggested no strong evidence of an effect on birth weight (-20 g [95% CI -44 to 5 g, p = 0.116] per 1 SD higher maternal calcium level). Some sensitivity analyses suggested that the genetic instrument for calcium was associated with birth weight via exposures that are independent of calcium levels (horizontal pleiotropy). Application of instrumental variable analyses to RCTs suggested that calcium has a substantial effect on birth weight (178 g [95% CI 121-236 g, p = 1.43 × 10-9] per 1 SD higher maternal calcium level) that was not consistent with any of the MR results. However, the RCT instrumental variable estimate may have been exaggerated because of risk of bias in the included RCTs. Other study limitations include the low response rate of UK Biobank, which may bias MR estimates, and the lack of suitable data to test whether the effects of genetic instruments on maternal calcium levels during pregnancy were the same as those outside of pregnancy.ConclusionsOur results suggest that maternal circulating 25(OH)D does not influence birth weight in otherwise healthy newborns. However, the effect of maternal circulating calcium on birth weight is unclear and requires further exploration with more research including RCT and/or MR analyses with more valid instruments.

Variability in red blood cell volumes (distribution width, RDW) increases with age and is strongly predictive of mortality, incident coronary heart disease and cancer. We investigated inherited genetic variation associated with RDW in 116,666 UK Biobank human volunteers.A large proportion RDW is explained by genetic variants (29%), especially in the older group (60+ year olds, 33.8%,

Low level chronic exposure to toxicants is associated with a range of adverse health effects. Understanding the various factors that influence the chemical burden of an individual is of critical importance to public health strategies. We investigated the relationships between socioeconomic status (SES) and bio-monitored chemical concentration in five cross-sectional waves of the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).We utilised adjusted linear regression models to investigate the association between 179 toxicants and the poverty income ratio (PIR) for five NHANES waves. We then selected a subset of chemicals associated with PIR in 3 or more NHANES waves and investigated potential mediating factors using structural equation modelling.PIR was associated with 18 chemicals in 3 or more NHANES waves. Higher SES individuals had higher burdens of serum and urinary mercury, arsenic, caesium, thallium, perfluorooctanoic acid, perfluorononanoic acid, mono(carboxyoctyl) phthalate and benzophenone-3. Inverse associations were noted between PIR and serum and urinary lead and cadmium, antimony, bisphenol A and three phthalates (mono-benzyl, mono-isobutyl, mono-n-butyl). Key mediators included fish and shellfish consumption for the PIR, mercury, arsenic, thallium and perfluorononanoic acid associations. Sunscreen use was an important mediator in the benzophenone-3/PIR relationship. The association between PIR and cadmium or lead was partially mediated by smoking, occupation and diet.These results provide a comprehensive analysis of exposure patterns as a function of socioeconomic status in US adults, providing important information to guide future public health remediation measures to decrease toxicant and disease burdens within society. Keywords: Chemical toxicants, Socioeconomic status, Environment, NHANES

Disrupted circadian rhythms and reduced sleep duration are associated with several human diseases, particularly obesity and type 2 diabetes, but until recently, little was known about the genetic factors influencing these heritable traits. We performed genome-wide association studies of self-reported chronotype (morning/evening person) and self-reported sleep duration in 128,266 white British individuals from the UK Biobank study. Sixteen variants were associated with chronotype (P

We previously used a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the CHRNA5-A3-B4 gene cluster associated with heaviness of smoking within smokers to confirm the causal effect of smoking in reducing body mass index (BMI) in a Mendelian randomisation analysis. While seeking to extend these findings in a larger sample we found that this SNP is associated with 0.74% lower body mass index (BMI) per minor allele in current smokers (95% CI -0.97 to -0.51, P = 2.00 × 10(-10)), but also unexpectedly found that it was associated with 0.35% higher BMI in never smokers (95% CI +0.18 to +0.52, P = 6.38 × 10(-5)). An interaction test confirmed that these estimates differed from each other (P = 4.95 × 10(-13)). This difference in effects suggests the variant influences BMI both via pathways unrelated to smoking, and via the weight-reducing effects of smoking. It would therefore be essentially undetectable in an unstratified genome-wide association study of BMI, given the opposite association with BMI in never and current smokers. This demonstrates that novel associations may be obscured by hidden population sub-structure. Stratification on well-characterized environmental factors known to impact on health outcomes may therefore reveal novel genetic associations.

BACKGROUND: In recent years there has been an exponential increase in tungsten demand, potentially increasing human exposure to the metal. Currently, the toxicology of tungsten is poorly understood, but mounting evidence suggests that both the elemental metal and its alloys have cytotoxic effects. Here, we investigate the association between tungsten and cardiovascular disease (CVD) or stroke using six waves of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). METHODS: We investigated associations using crude and adjusted logistic regression models in a cohort of 8614 adults (18-74 years) with 193 reported stroke diagnoses and 428 reported diagnoses of CVD. We also stratified our data to characterize associations in a subset of younger individuals (18-50 years). RESULTS: Elevated tungsten concentrations were strongly associated with an increase in the prevalence of stroke, independent of typical risk factors (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.66, 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI): 1.17, 2.34). The association between tungsten and stroke in the young age category was still evident (OR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.33, 3.53). CONCLUSION: This study represents the most comprehensive analysis of the human health effects of tungsten to date. Individuals with higher urinary tungsten concentrations have double the odds of reported stroke. We hypothesize that the pathological pathway resulting from tungsten exposure may involve oxidative stress.