1. Another scanning test of trend change in regression coefficients applied to monthly temperature on global land and sea surfaces.
- Author
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Jiang, Jianmin
- Subjects
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LAND surface temperature , *GLOBAL warming , *MOVING average process , *TIME series analysis , *REGRESSION analysis - Abstract
Two algorithms have been proposed in this paper. One is another scanning t test of trend change points in regression slope coefficients in two phases, along with a coherency analysis of trend changes between two time series. It is different from the previously published scanning Fmax test of trend changes. The second is a fuzzy weighted moving average (FWMA). Then, the algorithms were applied to two series of monthly temperatures over global land and ocean surfaces for 1850–2021. The applied results show that significant changes in segment trends appeared in two gradations on the interdecadal and intradecadal scales. All subsample regression models were found to fit well with those data. Global warming started in April 1976 with a good coherency of warming trends between land and sea. The global warming "hiatus" mainly occurred in SST cooling from November 2001 to April 2008, but was not evinced over land on interdecadal scales. The "land/sea warming contrast" was detected only in their anomaly series, but disappeared in their standardized differences. We might refer to the anomalies in distribution N(0,s) as "perceptual" indicators and refer to the standardized differences in N(0,1) as "net" indexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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