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Accurate household short-term energy consumption forecasting (STECF) is crucial for home energy management, but it is technically challenging, due to highly random behaviors of individual residential users. To improve the accuracy of STECF on a day-ahead scale, this paper proposes an novel STECF methodology that leverages association mining in electrical behaviors. First, a probabilistic association quantifying and discovering method is proposed to model the pairwise behaviors association and generate associated clusters. Then, a convolutional neural network-gated recurrent unit (CNN-GRU) based forecasting is provided to explore the temporal correlation and enhance accuracy. The testing results demonstrate that this methodology yields a significant enhancement in the STECF., Comment: 3 figures and 4 tables; This manuscript is submitted for possible publication

The disordered charging of electric vehicles (EVs) in residential areas leads to a rapid increase of the peak load, causing transformer overload, but the charging control of EV group can effectively alleviate this phenomenon. However, existing charging control methods need reliable two-way communication infrastructure, which brings high operation costs and security risks. To offer a backup strategy for charging control of EVs after communication facilities fail, this paper proposes a communication-free charging control scheme to provide a decentralized on-site charging strategy for EV group. First, an uncontrollable EV group baseline estimation considering charging behaviors enabled by Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is proposed to acquire the capacity margin forecasting for controllable EVs. Next, this paper proposes a probabilistic distributed control method to assist users formulate the charging plan autonomously. Here, the charging behavior of EV group is regulated from an optimization with uncertain boundary conditions to a sampling with uncertain feasible regions expressed by a probability distribution. Finally, the scheme is verified via real-world EV charging data from a residential area in Hangzhou, China. The results show that this method can reduce the probability of transformer overload caused by out-of-order EV charging after a communication failure., Comment: This paper has been accepted by IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid

Real active distribution networks with associated smart meter (SM) data are critical for power researchers. However, it is practically difficult for researchers to obtain such comprehensive datasets from utilities due to privacy concerns. To bridge this gap, an implicit generative model with Wasserstein GAN objectives, namely unbalanced graph generative adversarial network (UG-GAN), is designed to generate synthetic three-phase unbalanced active distribution system connectivity. The basic idea is to learn the distribution of random walks both over a real-world system and across each phase of line segments, capturing the underlying local properties of an individual real-world distribution network and generating specific synthetic networks accordingly. Then, to create a comprehensive synthetic test case, a network correction and extension process is proposed to obtain time-series nodal demands and standard distribution grid components with realistic parameters, including distributed energy resources (DERs) and capacity banks. A Midwest distribution system with 1-year SM data has been utilized to validate the performance of our method. Case studies with several power applications demonstrate that synthetic active networks generated by the proposed framework can mimic almost all features of real-world networks while avoiding the disclosure of confidential information.

Transient stability boundary (TSB) is an important tool in power system online security monitoring, but practically it suffers from high computational burden using state-of-the-art methods, such as time-domain simulation (TDS), with numerous scenarios taken into account (e.g., operating points (OPs) and N-1 contingencies). The purpose of this work is to establish a data-driven framework to generate sufficient critical samples close to the boundary within a limited time, covering all critical scenarios in current OP. Therefore, accurate TSB can be periodically refreshed by tracking current OP in time. The idea is to develop a search strategy to obtain more data samples near the stability boundary, while traverse the rest part with fewer samples. To achieve this goal, a specially designed transient index sensitivity based search strategy and critical scenarios selection mechanism are proposed, in order to find out the most representative scenarios and periodically update TSB for online monitoring. Two case studies validate effectiveness of the proposed method.