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During the sea launch of a launch vehicle in low sea state, a rolling phenomenon of the launch vehicle has been observed. In rough sea conditions, launch may failure. This study utilizes dimensionality reduction-driven spatial system projection methods and virtual prototype modeling technology to reveal that the launch vehicle’s rolling is caused by differences in the motion paths of the center of mass. Additionally, during the prelaunch stage, the variation in the trajectory of the launch vehicle’s center of mass caused by the rolling and pitching motions of the transportation vessel has a significant impact on the roll motion of the launch vehicle. The motion in other degrees of freedom has minimal influence on the launch vehicle’s rolling. The minimum rocket rolling occurs when the dynamic coefficient of friction of the launchpad–launch vehicle contact is 0.05, and the dynamic coefficient of friction of the adapters and guideways is 0.4. The conclusions provide a theoretical foundation for optimizing the sea launch system and enhancing the reliability of sea launch in rough sea conditions.