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Over the past few years, the uncertain business environment has shaped the resilient development thinking of firms. Measuring and predicting innovation resilience plays a crucial role in fostering the sustainable development of enterprises. This paper used the entropy-weight TOPSIS model and FGM(1,1) model to measure the innovation resilience of companies based on an indicator system, covering aspects such as tolerance for factor scarcity, R&D safety, core technology self-sufficiency, and organizational change capacity. The results show that the MAPE of the FGM(1,1) model is 0.0136, which is lower than that of the GM(1,1) model, with the predicted annual growth rate of the resilience being −0.95% from 2020 to 2025. Consequently, the study investigated what policy configuration may improve innovation resilience using the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) model. It identified four policy configuration paths, of which the combination of a tax policy for an additional deduction of enterprise R&D expenses and an income tax reduction policy is an effective policy configuration. This research expands the application of the FGM(1,1) model and inspires managers to develop innovative policies to enhance corporate resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]