Search

Introduction: Alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) is a preventable cause of mortality. Historical epidemiological studies on ARLD often lack a detailed linked assessment of health-related contacts prior to death which limits understanding of opportunities for intervention. We aimed to analyse retrospective population-based data of all adult residents of Nottinghamshire dying from ARLD to determine the factors associated with delayed diagnosis of ARLD and the potential missed opportunities for interventions. Methods: We linked the Office for National Statistics and Hospital Episode Statistics databases to identify adult (?18 years) residents of Nottinghamshire, who died of ARLD over the 5-year period (1January 2012 to 31 December 2017). Death was used as the primary outcome, and logistic regression analysis was conducted to test the association between key variables and mortality due to ARLD. Results: Over 5 years, 799 ARLD deaths were identified. More than half had no diagnosis or a diagnosis of ARLD less than 6months before death. Emergency presentation at first ARLD diagnosis and White ethnicity were significantly associated with a delay in diagnosis. Overall, the cohort had a median of five hospital admissions, four accident and emergency attendances and 16 outpatient appointments in the 5 years before death. Treatment was provided by a range of specialities, with general medicine the most common. Alcohol was associated with most admissions. Discussion and Conclusions: This study identified deficiencies in ARLD secondary care and provides us with a powerful methodology that can be used to evaluate and improve how alcohol issues are managed and where action can be best targeted.

Background Psychological factors can influence susceptibility to viral infections. We examined whether such influences are evident in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Methods Participants (n = 102) completed measures of anxiety, depression, positive mood, and loneliness and provided a blood sample for the measurement of antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid proteins. Results SARS-CoV-2 was significantly negatively associated with anxiety and depression. The model remained significant after adjustment for age and gender, although anxiety and depression were no longer significant independent predictors. Conclusions These findings offer early support for the hypothesis that psychological factors may influence susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

BACKGROUND Mortality from alcohol-related liver disease has risen significantly for three decades. Transient elastography (TE) is a non-invasive test providing a numerical marker of liver disease. Preliminary evidence suggests that receiving TE can reduce alcohol consumption. The KLIFAD (Does knowledge of liver fibrosis affect high risk drinking behaviour?) study has developed a complex intervention in which people receiving alcohol treatment are provided with access to TE, accompanied by scripted feedback tailored to disease state, and access to video narratives describing alcohol misuse recovery after receiving TE. Recovery narratives are included due to preliminary evidence from mental health studies which suggest that access to digital narratives describing recovery from mental health problems can help people affected by mental health problems, including through mechanisms with potential to be transferable to an alcohol treatment setting, for example by increasing hope for the future, enabling learning from the experience of others, or promoting help-seeking behaviours. OBJECTIVE To develop the KLIFAD Intervention to the point that it could be delivered in a feasibility trial; to produce knowledge relevant to clinicians and researchers developing interventions making use of biomarkers of disease. METHODS In research activity one, standardised scripted feedback was developed by the study, and then iterated through focus groups with people who had experienced alcohol misuse and transient elastography, and key alcohol workers with experience of delivering transient elastography. We report critical design considerations identified through focus groups, in the form of sensitizing concepts. In research activity two, a video production guide was co-produced to enable the production of impactful video-based recovery narratives, and a PPI panel was consulted for recommendations on how best to integrated recovery narratives into an alcohol treatment setting. We report PPI recommendations and an overview of video form and content. RESULTS Through research activity one, we learnt that patient feedback has not been standardised in prior use of transient elastography, that receiving a numeric marker can provide an objective target that motivates and rewards recovery, and that key alcohol workers regularly tailor information to their clients. Through research activity two, we developed a video production guide asking narrators what recovery means to them, what helped their recovery, and what they have learned about recovery. We produced ten recovery narratives and collected PPI recommendations on maximising impact and safety. These led to the production of unplanned videos presenting carer and clinician perspectives, and a choice to limit narrative availability to alcohol treatment settings, where support is available around distressing content. These choices will be evaluated through a feasibility RCT [ISRCTN16922410]. CONCLUSIONS Providing an objective target that motivates and rewards recovery is a candidate change mechanism for complex interventions integrating biomarkers of disease. Recovery narratives can contain distressing content; intervention developers should attend to safe usage. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT RR2-10.1136/bmjopen-2021-054954

Objectives: Severe Acute Respiratory Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in late 2019, spreading to over 200 countries and resulting in almost two million deaths worldwide. The emergence of safe and effective vaccines provides a route out of the pandemic, with vaccination uptake of 75–90% needed to achieve population protection. Vaccine hesitancy is problematic for vaccine rollout; global reports suggest only 73% of the population may agree to being vaccinated. As a result, there is an urgent need to develop equitable and accessible interventions to address vaccine hesitancy at the population level. Study Design & Method: we report the development of a scalable digital intervention seeking to address COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and enhance uptake of COVID-19 vaccines in the United Kingdom. Guided by motivational interviewing (MI) principles, the intervention includes a series of therapeutic dialogues addressing 10 key concerns of vaccine-hesitant individuals. Development of the intervention occurred linearly across four stages. During stage 1, we identified common reasons for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy through analysis of existing survey data, a rapid systematic literature review, and public engagement workshops. Stage 2 comprised qualitative interviews with medical, immunological, and public health experts. Rapid content and thematic analysis of the data provided evidence-based responses to common vaccine concerns. Stage 3 involved the development of therapeutic dialogues through workshops with psychological and digital behaviour change experts. Dialogues were developed to address concerns using MI principles, including embracing resistance and supporting self-efficacy. Finally, stage 4 involved digitisation of the dialogues and pilot testing with members of the public. Discussion: the digital intervention provides an evidence-based approach to addressing vaccine hesitancy through MI principles. The dialogues are user-selected, allowing exploration of relevant issues associated with hesitancy in a non-judgmental context. The text-based content and digital format allow for rapid modification to changing information and scalability for wider dissemination.

Aim To assess the impact of Covid-19 on alcohol use disorders (AUD) and the role of universal alcohol screening (UAS) in an inpatient setting. Methods Retrospective cohorts were defined as pre-pandemic and pandemic admitted to Nottingham University Hospitals (April to October; 2019 and 2020) and had alcohol assessment by AUDIT-C. AUDIT-C score was assessed against age, sex, ethnicity, admission type, speciality and primary diagnosis of mental disorders. Subgroup analysis for Covid-19 positive patients was performed. Results A total of 63,927 admissions (47,954 patients) were included. The pandemic period compared to pre-pandemic had fewer overall admissions (27,349 vs 36,578, P, During pandemic, there was reduction in total number of acute hospital admissions. Pattern of AUD was similar before and during the pandemic though a higher proportion during the pandemic was alcohol dependent. The AUD screened positive in pandemic were more likely to have mental disorders.

Objectives This article evaluates the application of ‘incident control’ methodology usually applied in communicable disease control to an ‘incident’ of unexplained deaths, specifically to resolve a significant difference in 1-year survival after a lung cancer diagnosis observed between two Clinical Commissioning Groups and the England national average, 2011–14. The purpose of the evaluation was to assess whether a formalised incident control approach is feasible and effective in improving outcomes for non-communicable diseases. Study design Descriptive, qualitative, process evaluation. Methods There were two components to the evaluation: a document review against identified phases of a non-communicable disease incident control framework and a qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews with stakeholders who had been involved in implementation. Results The findings indicate feasibility of the incident control model, with some limitations. Identified strengths of the model included the articulation of a clear case and incident definition. The structure and stepped phased approach facilitated partner engagement, robust data analysis, action planning and communication strategies. Delays in data publication and the lack of comparable data across different non-communicable diseases present challenges in timely response and prioritisation of ‘incidents’. Conclusions The evaluation indicates value in applying defined incident control methodology to management of non-communicable diseases, especially where there is identification of a potential outlier or a measurable variation, i.e. there is a definable ‘incident’ and ‘case’.

Background Guidelines for urgent investigation of colorectal cancer (CRC) are based on age and symptom-based criteria. This study aims to compare the diagnostic value of clinical features and faecal immunochemical test (FIT) results to identify those at a higher risk of CRC, thereby facilitating effective triage of patients. Methods We undertook a review of all patients referred for investigation of CRC at our centre between September 2016 and June 2018. Patients were identified using a prospectively recorded local database. We performed a logistic regression analysis of factors associated with a diagnosis of CRC. Results One-thousand-and-seven-hundred-eighty-four patients with FIT results were included in the study. Change in bowel habit (CIBH) was the most common referring clinical feature (38.3%). Patients diagnosed with CRC were significantly older than those without malignancy (74.0 years vs 68.9 years, p = 0.0007). Male patients were more likely to be diagnosed with CRC than females (6.5% vs 2.5%, Chi-squared 16.93, p

ObjectivesIn December 2020, Derbyshire County Council in England introduced ‘walk-in’ asymptomatic community COVID-19 testing sites. Our study aimed to explore people’s views of the newly established COVID-19 community testing (CT) sites among those who attended and those who did not attend them, alongside gathering individuals’ experiences of attending a CT site to complete a lateral flow test.SettingThis qualitative research study comprised of one-to-one interviews with those attending a COVID-19 CT sites in Derbyshire and those from the surrounding area who did not attend.ParticipantsA combination of purposive and convenience sampling was used to recruit those who had (n=18) and those who had not attended (n=15) a walk-in asymptomatic CT site.ResultsEmployers played a key role in raising awareness of the testing sites, with most attending CT at the request of their workplace. The experience of attending a CT site was overwhelmingly positive and those who got tested spoke about the reassurance a negative result offered, knowing they were not passing on the virus when going about their daily lives. However, there was a perception that awareness of CT sites was low across the county and some confusion about who was eligible to attend and under what circumstances. Individuals linked this to low level of advertising they had seen, in addition to a lack of clarity in the information provided.ConclusionsPeople’s experience of attending a ‘walk-in’ asymptomatic CT site in Derbyshire was generally very positive; however, ensuring clear communication for future testing programmes is essential to maximise their uptake.

Models predicting an individual's 10-year risk of cirrhosis complications have not been developed for a community setting. Our objectives were to assess the performance of existing risk scores - both with and without genetic data - for predicting cirrhosis complications in the community.We used a 2-stage study design. In stage 1, a systematic review was conducted to identify risk scores derived from routine liver blood tests that have demonstrated prior ability to predict cirrhosis-related complication events. Risk scores identified from stage 1 were tested in a UK Biobank subgroup, comprising participants with a risk factor for chronic liver disease (stage 2). Cirrhosis complications were defined as hospitalisation for liver cirrhosis or presentation with hepatocellular carcinoma. Discrimination of risk scores with and without genetic data was assessed using the Wolbers C-index, Harrell's adequacy index, and cumulative incidence curves.Twenty risk scores were identified from the stage-1 systematic review. For stage-2, 197,509 UK biobank participants were selected. The cumulative incidence of cirrhosis complications at 10 years was 0.58%; 95% CI 0.54-0.61 (1,110 events). The top performing risk scores were aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI: C-index 0.804; 95% CI 0.788-0.820) and fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4: C-index 0.780; 95% CI 0.764-0.795). The 10-year cumulative incidences of cirrhosis complications for participants with an APRI score exceeding the 90Accessible risk scores derived from routine blood tests (particularly APRI and FIB-4) can be repurposed to estimate 10-year risk of cirrhosis morbidity in the community. Genetic data improves performance only minimally.New approaches are needed in community settings to reduce the late diagnosis of chronic liver disease. Thus, in a community cohort, we assessed the ability of 20 routine risk scores to predict 10-year risk of cirrhosis-related complications. We show that 2 routine risk scores in particular - "APRI" and "FIB-4" - could be repurposed to estimate an individual's 10-year risk of cirrhosis-related morbidity. Adding genetic risk factor information to these scores only modestly improved performance.

Background and Aims: Historically, bleeding was thought to be a frequent and fatal complication of liver disease. However, thrombosis due to coagulation disorders in cirrhosis remains a real risk. We aim to systematically analyse published articles to evaluate epidemiology of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in chronic liver disease (CLD). Method: Electronic search was conducted on Ovid Medline, EMBASE and Scopus from inception to November 2021 to identify studies presenting epidemiology VTE (deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism) in CLD in inpatients and/or community settings. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed to determine pooled per-year cumulative incidence, incidence rate and prevalence. Heterogeneity was measured by I² test, and, potential sources of heterogeneity by meta-regression and sensitivity analysis. PROSPERO registration-CRD42021239117. Results: Twenty-nine studies comprising 19,157,018 participants were included, of which 15,2049 (0.79%) had VTE. None of included the studies were done in the community. In hospitalised patients with CLD: pooled cumulative incidence of VTE was 1.07% (95%CI 0.80,1.38) per-year, incidence rate was 157.15 (95%CI 14.74,445.29) per 10,000 person-years, and period prevalence was 1.10% (95%CI 0.85,1.38) per year. There was significant heterogeneity and publication bias. Pooled relative risk (RR) of studies reporting incidence rate was 2.11 (95%CI 1.35,3.31). CLD patients (n=1644), who did not receive pharmacological prophylaxis were at 2.78 times (95% CI 1.11, 6.98) increased risk of VTE compared to those receiving prophylaxis. Conclusion: Hospitalised patients with CLD may be at an increased risk of VTE . For every 1000 hospitalised patients with CLD ten have new, and eleven have pre-existing diagnoses of VTE per-year.

Background: Type 2 diabetes is associated with increased risk of progression to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in people with chronic liver diseases, particularly non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, the absolute risk of progression is low so it is crucial to accurately identify patients who would benefit most from hepatology referral and intensified management. Current risk-stratification tools are sub-optimal and perform worse in people with diabetes.Aims: To determine whether the addition of complementary biomarker(s) to current NAFLD risk-stratification tools in people with Type 2 diabetes could improve the identification of people who are at increased risk of developing incident cirrhosis or HCC.Methods: The Edinburgh Type 2 diabetes Study (ET2DS) is a cohort study of men and women with Type 2 diabetes (n=1066, age 60-75 at baseline). Cases of cirrhosis and HCC were identified over 11-years of follow-up. Biomarkers were measured at baseline and year one and association with incident disease assessed using logistic regression.Results: Of existing risk-stratification scores tested, the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and the AST:platelet ratio index (APRI) performed best in this cohort. Addition of hyaluronic acid (cut-point ≥50μg/L) to FIB-4 (cut-point ≥1.3) maintained a false negative rate ≤25% and reduced the number of people incorrectly identified as ‘high-risk’ for incident disease by ~50%.Conclusions: The addition of hyaluronic acid to FIB-4 reduced the proportion of people inappropriately identified as ‘high-risk’ for development of cirrhosis/HCC in a community population of otherwise asymptomatic people with Type 2 diabetes. These findings require validation in independent cohorts.

Background and Aims Alcohol dependence affects over 240 million people worldwide and attributed to 3 million deaths annually. Early identification and intervention are key to prevent harm. We aim to systematically review literature on the effectiveness of adding advice based on biomarkers of liver injury or non-invasive tests of liver fibrosis (intervention-based advice) to prevent alcohol misuse. Methods Electronic search was conducted on Ovid Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, Psychinfo and CINAHL for articles published up to end of February 2020. Additionally, we searched study citations, Scopus, Ethos and Clinical trials. The primary outcome measure was changed in self-reported alcohol consumption analysed by random-effects meta-analysis. Secondary outcomes included change to liver blood markers and alcohol-related health outcomes. Results Fourteen randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and two observational studies comprising n = 3763 participants were included. Meta-analyses showed a greater reduction in alcohol consumption and liver biomarkers for the intervention compared to control group: mean difference for weekly alcohol intake was −74.4 g/week (95% confidence interval (CI) −126.1, −22.6, P = 0.005) and mean difference for gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) −19.7 IU/l (95% CI −33.1, −6.4, P = 0.004). There was a higher incidence of alcohol-attributed mortality, number of days spent in the hospital, physician visits and sickness absence in the non-intervention group. The quality of the included studies was moderate for RCTs and high for observational studies. Conclusions The review confirmed a significant association between the addition of intervention-based advice in routine care to the reduction of harmful alcohol consumption, GGT and alcohol-related mortality. The findings support the inclusion of this type of advice in routine alcohol care.

The global COVID-19 pandemic has impacted on the mental well-being of university students, but little attention has been given to international students, who may have a unique experience and perspective. The aim of this study was to explore the views of international students and university staff towards COVID-19 restrictions, self-isolation, their well-being, and support needs, through eight online focus groups with international students (n = 29) and semi-structured interviews with university staff (n = 17) at a higher education institution in England. Data were analysed using an inductive thematic approach, revealing three key themes and six subthemes: (1) practical, academic, and psychological challenges faced during self-isolation and the COVID-19 pandemic; (2) coping strategies to self-isolation and life during the pandemic; and (3) views on further support needed for international students. International students faced practical, academic, and psychological challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly relating to the rapid transition to online learning and the impact of social restrictions on integration with peers and well-being. Online social connections with peers, family, or new acquaintances reduced feelings of isolation and encouraged involvement in university life. Despite raising mental health concerns, most international students did not access mental health support services. Staff related this to perceived stigma around mental health in certain cultural groups. In conclusion, international students experienced specific practical and emotional challenges during the pandemic, and are at risk of mental ill-health, but may not actively seek out support from university services. Proactive and personalised approaches to student support will be important for positive student experiences and the retention of students who are studying abroad in the UK higher education system.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the maximal response of the temperature and inflammatory response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and how these are modified by age. METHODS: Participants were patients admitted to hospital with SARS-CoV-2 infection. For each participant, the maximal temperature and serum C-reactive protein (CRP) were identified and stratified by age. In a secondary analysis, these were compared in patients treated before and after dexamethasone. RESULTS: Mean maximal temperature varied by age (p

Objectives This study aimed to review the trends in adult national screening programme performance in England before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and consider the future implications. Study design This was a quantitative, longitudinal study. Methods Publicly available data on quarterly uptake of the five adult screening programmes in England were obtained from Public Health England. Trends from 2017 to 2021 were reviewed and discussed. Results From 2019 to 2020 Q4, there were substantial reductions in performance in four of the five national screening programmes that were not in keeping with recent trends. Conclusion The reductions in screening performance coincide with the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in England and may be explained by the temporary suspension of national screening programmes, and the inability or unwillingness of invitees to partake in screening once the programmes had been restored. Because of the delay in publication of the analysed data, further COVID-19 lockdowns in recent months make it probable that the current true screening performance figures are substantially lower than those presented in this article. The impact on screening programme performance is likely to be detrimental to patient outcomes, meaning remedial action is urgently required.

Objectives Currently, NICE recommends the use of faecal immunochemical test (FIT) at faecal haemoglobin concentrations (f-Hb) of 10 μg Hb/g faeces to stratify for colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in symptomatic populations. This f-Hb cut-off is advised across all analysers, despite the fact that a direct comparison of analyser performance, in a clinical setting, has not been performed. Methods Two specimen collection devices (OC-Sensor, OC-S; HM-JACKarc, HM-J) were sent to 914 consecutive individuals referred for follow up due to their increased risk of CRC. Agreement of f-Hb around cut-offs of 4, 10 and 150 µg Hb/g faeces and CRC detection rates were assessed. Two OC-S devices were sent to a further 114 individuals, for within test comparisons. Results A total of 732 (80.1%) individuals correctly completed and returned two different FIT devices, with 38 (5.2%) CRCs detected. Median f-Hb for individuals diagnosed with and without CRC were 258.5 and 1.8 µg Hb/g faeces for OC-S and 318.1 and 1.0 µg Hb/g faeces for HM-J respectively. Correlation of f-Hb results between OC-S/HM-J over the full range was rho=0.74, p Conclusions We found large variations in f-Hb when different FIT devices were used, but a smaller variation when the same FIT device was used. Our data suggest that analyser-specific f-Hb cut-offs are applied with regard to clinical decision making, especially at lower f-Hb.

AIM We introduced primary care access to faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) as a stratification tool for symptomatic patients considered to be at risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) prior to urgent referral. We aimed to evaluate clinical and pathway outcomes during the first 6 months of this novel approach. METHOD FIT was recommended for all patients who consulted their general practitioner with lower gastrointestinal symptoms other than rectal bleeding and rectal mass. We undertook a retrospective audit of the results of FIT, related clinical outcomes and resource utilization on prospectively logged cases between November 2017 and May 2018. RESULTS Of the 1862 FIT kits dispatched by post 91.4% were returned, with a median return time of 7 days (range 2-110 days); however, 1.3% of returned kits could not be analysed. FIT results ≥ 150.0 μg haemoglobin (Hb)/g faeces identified patients with a significantly higher risk of CRC (30.9% vs 1.4%, chi-square 167.1, P

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) often develops in patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis at an annual risk of up to 2.5%. Some host genetic risk factors have been identified but do not account for the majority of the variance in occurrence. This study aimed to identify novel susceptibility loci for the development of HCC in people with alcohol related cirrhosis.Patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis and HCC (cases: n=1214) and controls without HCC (n=1866), recruited from Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Italy and the UK, were included in a two-stage genome-wide association study using a case-control design. A validation cohort of 1520 people misusing alcohol but with no evidence of liver disease was included to control for possible association effects with alcohol misuse. Genotyping was performed using the InfiniumGlobal Screening Array (V.24v2, Illumina) and the OmniExpress Array (V.24v1-0a, Illumina).Associations with variants rs738409 inThis study identifies rs2242652 in

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is thought that alcohol intake and BMI interact supra-additively to modulate the risk of cirrhosis; but evidence for this phenomenon is limited. We investigated the interrelationship between alcohol and BMI on the incidence of cirrhosis morbidity for participants of the United Kingdom Biobank study (UKB) study.APPROACH & RESULTS: The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis morbidity, defined as a first-time hospital admission for cirrhosis (with non-cirrhosis mortality incorporated as a competing risk). All UKB participants without a previous hospital admission for cirrhosis were included in the analysis. We determined the ratio of the 10-year cumulative incidence in harmful drinkers versus safe drinkers according to BMI. We also calculated the excess cumulative incidence at 10 years for individuals with obesity and/or harmful alcohol compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI of 20-25.0 kg/m2 . 489,285 UK Biobank participants were included, with mean of 10.7 person-years follow-up. 2070 participants developed the primary outcome, equating to a crude cumulative incidence of 0.36% at 10years (95% CI:0.34-0.38). The 10-year cumulative incidence was 8.6 times higher for harmful (1.38%) versus safe drinkers (0.16%) if BMI was healthy. Conversely, it was only 3.6 times higher for obese participants (1.99% Vs 0.56%). Excess cumulative incidence was 1.22% (95% CI:0.89-1.55) for harmful drinkers with a healthy BMI, 0.40% (95% CI:0.34-0.46) for obese individuals drinking at safe levels, and 1.83% (95% CI:1.46-2.20) for obese harmful drinkers (all compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI).CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol intake and obesity are independent risk factors for cirrhosis morbidity, but they do not interact supra-additively to modulate the cumulative incidence of this outcome.

Background Radiographic severity may help predict patient deterioration and outcomes from COVID-19 pneumonia. Purpose To assess the reliability and reproducibility of three chest radiograph reporting systems (radiographic assessment of lung edema [RALE], Brixia, and percentage opacification) in patients with proven SARS-CoV-2 infection and examine the ability of these scores to predict adverse outcomes both alone and in conjunction with two clinical scoring systems, National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium: Coronavirus Clinical Characterization Consortium (ISARIC-4C) mortality. Materials and Methods This retrospective cohort study used routinely collected clinical data of patients with polymerase chain reaction-positive SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to a single center from February 2020 through July 2020. Initial chest radiographs were scored for RALE, Brixia, and percentage opacification by one of three radiologists. Intra- and interreader agreement were assessed with intraclass correlation coefficients. The rate of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) or death up to 60 days after scored chest radiograph was estimated. NEWS2 and ISARIC-4C mortality at hospital admission were calculated. Daily risk for admission to ICU or death was modeled with Cox proportional hazards models that incorporated the chest radiograph scores adjusted for NEWS2 or ISARIC-4C mortality. Results Admission chest radiographs of 50 patients (mean age, 74 years ± 16 [standard deviation]; 28 men) were scored by all three radiologists, with good interreader reliability for all scores, as follows: intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.87 for RALE (95% CI: 0.80, 0.92), 0.86 for Brixia (95% CI: 0.76, 0.92), and 0.72 for percentage opacification (95% CI: 0.48, 0.85). Of 751 patients with a chest radiograph, those with greater than 75% opacification had a median time to ICU admission or death of just 1-2 days. Among 628 patients for whom data were available (median age, 76 years [interquartile range, 61-84 years]; 344 men), opacification of 51%-75% increased risk for ICU admission or death by twofold (hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% CI: 1.6, 2.8), and opacification greater than 75% increased ICU risk by fourfold (hazard ratio, 4.0; 95% CI: 3.4, 4.7) compared with opacification of 0%-25%, when adjusted for NEWS2 score. Conclusion Brixia, radiographic assessment of lung edema, and percentage opacification scores all reliably helped predict adverse outcomes in SARS-CoV-2 infection. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Little in this issue.

Background and aims Narratives of recovery from alcohol misuse have been analysed in a range of research studies. This paper aims to produce a conceptual framework describing the characteristics of alcohol misuse recovery narratives that are in the research literature, to inform the development of research, policy, and practice. Methods Systematic review was conducted following PRISMA guidelines. Electronic searches of databases (Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINHAL, PsychInfo, AMED and SCOPUS), grey literature, and citation searches for included studies were conducted. Alcohol recovery narratives were defined as “first-person lived experience accounts, which includes elements of adversity, struggle, strength, success, and survival related to alcohol misuse, and refer to events or actions over a period of time”. Frameworks were synthesised using a three-stage process. Sub-group analyses were conducted on studies presenting analyses of narratives with specific genders, ages, sexualities, ethnicities, and dual diagnosis. The review was prospectively registered (PROSPERO CRD42021235176). Results 32 studies were included (29 qualitative, 3 mixed-methods, 1055 participants, age range 17-82years, 52.6% male, 46.4% female). Most were conducted in the United States (n = 15) and Europe (n = 11). No included studies analysed recovery narratives from lower income countries. Treatment settings included Alcoholic Anonymous (n = 12 studies), other formal treatment, and ‘natural recovery’. Eight principle narrative dimensions were identified (genre, identity, recovery setting, drinking trajectory, drinking behaviours, stages, spirituality and religion, and recovery experience) each with types and subtypes. All dimensions were present in most subgroups. Shame was a prominent theme for female narrators, lack of sense of belonging and spirituality were prominent for LGBTQ+ narrators, and alienation and inequality were prominent for indigenous narrators. Conclusions Review provides characteristics of alcohol recovery narratives, with implications for both research and healthcare practice. It demonstrated knowledge gaps in relation to alcohol recovery narratives of people living in lower income countries, or those who recovered outside of mainstream services. Protocol registration Prospero registration number: CRD42020164185.

We compared the performance of prognostic tools for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) using parameters fitted either at the time of hospital admission or across all time points of an admission. This cohort study used clinical data to model the dynamic change in prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 at a single hospital center in the United Kingdom, including all patients admitted from February 1, 2020, to December 31, 2020, and then followed up for 60 days for intensive care unit (ICU) admission, death, or discharge from the hospital. We incorporated clinical observations and blood tests into 2 time-varying Cox proportional hazards models predicting daily 24- to 48-hour risk of admission to the ICU for those eligible for escalation of care or death for those ineligible for escalation. In developing the model, 491 patients were eligible for ICU escalation and 769 were ineligible for escalation. Our model had good discrimination of daily risk of ICU admission in the validation cohort (n = 1,141; C statistic: C = 0.91, 95% confidence interval: 0.89, 0.94) and our score performed better than other scores (National Early Warning Score 2, International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Comprehensive Clinical Characterisation Collaboration score) calculated using only parameters measured on admission, but it overestimated the risk of escalation (calibration slope = 0.7). A bespoke daily SARS-CoV-2 escalation risk prediction score can predict the need for clinical escalation better than a generic early warning score or a single estimation of risk calculated at admission.

Aims Faecal Immunochemical Tests (FIT) are increasingly used for stratification of colorectal cancer risk in symptomatic patients. FIT is not currently recommended for use in patients with rectal bleeding, but recent studies have reported its safe use. We report our experiences of FIT in patients presenting with rectal bleeding during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods Patients referred to NUH NHS Trust with rectal bleeding from 15/04/20-15/08/20 were invited to complete a postal-based FIT (OC-Sensor). Demographics, symptoms, investigations and results were recorded. Outcomes were retrospectively reviewed using an electronic hospital system. Result 344 patients were invited to participate, with 301 (87.5%) returning FITs in accordance with testing protocol. 36 patients declined to be seen, 4 were considered not fit for investigation, and 4 had incomplete records. 257 patients were included in the final analysis with 10 CRC detected (3.9%). Rectal bleeding (257, 100%) was the most common presenting symptom followed by change in bowel habit (133, 51.8%). 10 CRC were diagnosed (3.9%). 2 CRC were detected with FIT 100 µg Hb / g faeces (8/45, 17.8%). FIT result was significantly associated with CRC diagnosis (p Conclusions FIT missed 20% of CRC in this patient group with the application of a very low threshold (

BackgroundThe impact of changing social restrictions on the mental health of students during the COVID-19 pandemic warrants exploration.AimsTo prospectively examine changes to university students’ mental health during the pandemic.MethodsStudents completed repeated online surveys at three time points (October 2020 (baseline), February 2021, March 2021) to explore relationships between demographic and psychological factors (loneliness and positive mood) and mental health outcomes (depression, anxiety, and stress).ResultsA total of 893 students participated. Depression and anxiety levels were higher at all timepoints than pre-pandemic normative data (pConclusionDepression and anxiety were significantly higher than pre-pandemic norms, with female students and those with previous mental health difficulties being at greatest risk. Given these elevated rates, universities should ensure adequate support is available to meet potentially increased demand for services.

ObjectiveTo describe the development of the Nottingham liver disease stratification pathway, present a 12-month evaluation of uptake and stratification results, and compare the pathway with current British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) guidelines.DesignA referral pathway between primary and secondary care for the detection and risk stratification of liver disease.SettingFour Nottinghamshire clinical commissioning groups (700 000 population).PatientsPatients are referred to the pathway with (1) raised aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase (AST:ALT) ratio, (2) harmful alcohol use or (3) risk or presence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).InterventionsWe report on clinic attendance within secondary care for transient elastography (TE) and brief lifestyle intervention. The TE result is reported back to the general practitioner with advice on interpretation and referral guidance.Main outcome measuresPathway uptake, patient characteristics, liver disease stratification results and stakeholder feedback.ResultsOver the first 12 months 968 patients attended a TE clinic appointment, with raised AST:ALT ratio being the most common single reason for referral (36.9%). Of the total, 222 (22.9%) patients had an elevated liver stiffness (≥8 kPa), in whom 57 (25.7%) had a liver stiffness which was indicative of advanced chronic liver disease. If a traditional approach based on raised liver enzymes (BSG guidance) had been followed, 38.7% of those with significant liver disease (≥8 kPa) would have gone undetected among those referred for either NAFLD or raised AST:ALT ratio.ConclusionsTargeting patients with risk factors for chronic liver disease and stratifying them using TE can detect significant chronic liver disease above and beyond the approach based on liver enzyme elevation.

ObjectiveWe aimed to determine (1) the temporal trends of liver enzyme testing in UK general practice and (2) how these vary among different subgroups at risk of chronic liver disease (CLD).DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingUK primary care database (Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)), 2004–2016.ParticipantsPatients aged 18 years or over, registered in the CPRD from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2016.Outcome measuresThe frequency of testing recorded within the study period in general practice was calculated for: alanine aminotransferase (ALT); aspartate aminotransferase (AST); gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT); alkaline phosphatase (ALP); bilirubin and platelets. Analyses were conducted in subgroups of patients at high risk of developing liver disease.ResultsThe study cohort included 2 912 066 individuals with median follow-up of 3.2 years. The proportion of patients with at least one measurement for ALT, ALP, bilirubin or platelet test gradually increased over the course of the study period and fell for AST and GGT. By 2016, the proportion of the population receiving one of more tests in that year was: platelet count 28.0%, ALP 26.2%, bilirubin 25.6%, ALT 23.7%, GGT 5.1% and AST 2.2%. Those patients with risk factors for CLD had higher proportions receiving liver marker assessments than those without risk factors.ConclusionsThe striking finding that AST is now only measured in a fraction of the population has significant implications for routine guidance which frequently expects it. A more nuanced approach where non-invasive markers are targeted towards individuals with risk factors for CLD may be a solution.

The pulse oximeter provides regular non-invasive measurements of blood oxygenation and is used in a wide range of clinical settings [1]. The light wave transmission that this technology uses is modified by skin pigmentation and thus may vary by skin colour. A recent study of paired measures of oxygen saturation from pulse oximetry and arterial blood gas reported differing outputs in patients with black skin compared to patients with white skin that has the potential to adversely impact on patient care [2].

ObjectiveService evaluation of GP access to Faecal Immunochemical Test (FIT) for colorectal cancer (CRC) detection in Nottinghamshire and use of FIT for “rule out”, “rule in” and “first test selection”.DesignRetrospective audit of FIT results, CRC outcomes and resource utilisation before and after introduction of FIT in Primary Care in November 2017. Data from the new pathway up to December 2018 was compared with previous experience.ResultsBetween November 2017 and December 2018, 6747 GP FIT test requests yielded 5733 FIT results, of which 4082 (71.2%) were [less than]4.0 μg Hb/g faeces, 579 (10.1%) were 4.0–9.9 μg Hb/g faeces, 836 (14.6%) were 10.0–149.9 μg Hb/g faeces, and 236 (4.1%) were ≥150.0 μg Hb/g faeces. The proportion of “rule out” results [less than]4.0 μg Hb/g faeces was significantly higher than in the Getting FIT cohort (71.2% vs 60.4%, Chi squared 42.8, p [less than] 0.0001) and the proportion of “rule in” results ≥150.0 μg Hb/g faeces was significantly lower (4.1% vs 8.1%, Chi squared 27.3,P [less than] 0.0001).There was a 33% rise in urgent referrals across Nottingham overall during the evaluation period. 2 CRC diagnoses were made in 4082 patients who had FIT[less than]4.0 μg Hb/g faeces. 58.4% of new CRC diagnoses associated with a positive FIT were early stage cancers (Stage I and II). The proportion of all CRC diagnoses that follow an urgent referral s rose after introduction of FIT.ConclusionsFIT allows GP's to select a more appropriate cohort for urgent investigation without a large number of missed diagnoses. FIT appears to promise a “stage migration” effect which may ultimately improve CRC outcomes.

Background A novel pathway incorporating faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) for rapid colorectal cancer diagnosis (RCCD) was introduced in 2017. This paper reports on the service evaluation after 2 years of pathway implementation. Methods The RCCD protocol was based on FIT, blood results and symptoms to stratify adult patients in primary care. Two-week-wait (2WW) investigation was indicated for patients with rectal bleeding, rectal mass and faecal haemoglobin (fHb) level of 10 µg Hb/g faeces or above or 4 µg Hb/g faeces or more in the presence of anaemia, low ferritin or thrombocytosis, in all other symptom groups. Patients with 100 µg Hb/g faeces or above had expedited investigation . A retrospective audit of colorectal cancer detected between 2017 and 2019 was conducted, fHb thresholds were reviewed and critically assessed for cancer diagnoses. Results In 2 years, 14788 FIT tests were dispatched with 13361 (90.4 per cent) completed returns. Overall, fHb was less than 4 µg Hb/g faeces in 9208 results (68.9 per cent), 4–9.9 µg Hb/g in 1583 (11.8 per cent), 10–99.9 µg Hb/g in 1850 (13.8 per cent) and 100 µg Hb/g faeces or above in 720 (5.4 per cent). During follow-up (median 10.4 months), 227 colorectal cancers were diagnosed. The cancer detection rate was 0.1 per cent in patients with fHb below 4 µg Hb/g faeces, 0.6 per cent in those with fHb 4–9.9 µg Hb/g faeces, 3.3 per cent for fHb 10–99.9 µg Hb/g faeces and 20.7 per cent for fHb 100 µg Hb/g faeces or above. The detection rate in the cohort with 10–19.9 µg Hb/g faeces was 1.4 per cent, below the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence threshold for urgent referral. The colorectal cancer rate in patients with fHb below 20 µg Hb/g faeces was less than 0.3 per cent. Conclusion Use of FIT to "rule out" urgent referral from primary care misses a small number of cases. The threshold for referral may be adjusted with blood results to improve stratification ., We present outcome data from a service evaluation that demonstrates clinical effectiveness and safety. This strategy may be crucial to overcoming the effects of the Coronavirus pandemic on 2WW and urgent pathways.