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BackgroundIn many countries, HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users are screened quarterly for STIs. We assessed the consequences of less frequent STI testing. We also assessed determinants of asymptomatic STI and potential for onward transmission.MethodsUsing data from the AMPrEP study, we assessed the proportion of syphilis, and genital, anal, and pharyngeal chlamydia and gonorrhoea diagnoses which would have been delayed with biannual versus quarterly screening. We assessed the potential for onward transmission by examining reported condomless anal sex (CAS) in periods after to-be-omitted visits when screening biannually. We assessed determinants of incident asymptomatic STIs using Poisson regression and calculated individual risk scores on the basis of the coefficients from this model.ResultsWe included 366 participants. Median follow-up was 47 months (IQR 43–50). 1,183STIs were diagnosed, of which 932(79%) asymptomatic. With biannual screening, 483 asymptomatic STIs (52%) diagnoses would have been delayed at 364 study visits. Of these visits, 129 (35%), 240 (66%) and 265 (73%) were followed by periods of CAS with steady, known casual or unknown casual partners, respectively. Older participants had a lower risk of asymptomatic STI (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.86/10-year increase, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.92), while CAS with known (IRR 1.36, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.68) and unknown (IRR 1.86, 95% CI 1.48 to 2.34) casual partners and chemsex (IRR 1.51, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.78) increased the risk. The individual risk scores had limited predictive value (sensitivity=0.70 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.74), specificity=0.50 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.51)).ConclusionReducing the STI screening frequency to biannually among PrEP users will likely result in delayed diagnoses, potentially driving onward transmission. Although determinants for asymptomatic STIs were identified, predictive power was low.

BACKGROUND: Despite the high burden of cervical cancer, access to preventive measures remains low in India. A single-dose immunisation schedule could facilitate the scale-up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, contributing to global elimination of cervical cancer. We projected the effect of single-dose quadrivalent HPV vaccination in India in comparison with no vaccination or to a two-dose schedule.METHODS: In this modelling study, we adapted an HPV transmission model (EpiMetHeos) to Indian data on sexual behaviour (from the Demographic and Health Survey and the Indian National AIDS Control Organisation), HPV prevalence data (from two local surveys, from the states of Tamil Nadu and West Bengal), and cervical cancer incidence data (from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents for the period 2008-12 [volume XI], and the Indian National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research for the period 2012-16). Using the model, we projected the nationwide and state-specific effect of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence, and lifetime risk of cervical cancer, for 100 years after the introduction of vaccination or in the first 50 vaccinated birth cohorts. Projections were derived under a two-dose vaccination scenario assuming life-long protection and under a single-dose vaccination scenario with protection duration assumptions derived from International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) India vaccine trial data, in combination with different vaccination coverages and catch-up vaccination age ranges. We used two thresholds to define cervical cancer elimination: an age-standardised incidence rate of less than 4 cases per 100 000 woman-years, and standardised lifetime risk of less than 250 cases per 100 000 women born.FINDINGS: Assuming vaccination in girls aged 10 years, with 90% coverage, and life-long protection by two-dose or single-dose schedule, HPV vaccination could reduce the prevalence of HPV16 and HPV18 infection by 97% (80% UI 96-99) in 50 years, and the lifetime risk of cervical cancer by 71-78% from 1067 cases per 100 000 women born under a no vaccination scenario to 311 (80% UI 284-339) cases per 100 000 women born in the short term and 233 (219-252) cases per 100 000 women born in the long term in vaccinated cohorts. Under this scenario, we projected that the age-standardised incidence rate threshold for elimination could be met across India (range across Indian states: 1·6 cases [80% UI 1·5-1·7] to 4·0 cases [3·8-4·4] per 100 000 woman-years), while the complementary threshold based on standardised lifetime risk was attainable in 17 (68%) of 25 states, but not nationwide (range across Indian states: 207 cases [80% UI 194-223] to 477 cases [447-514] per 100 000 women born). Under the considered assumptions of waning vaccine protection, single-dose vaccination was projected to have a 21-100% higher per-dose efficiency than two-dose vaccination. Single-dose vaccination with catch-up for girls and women aged 11-20 years was more impactful than two-dose vaccination without catch-up, with reduction of 39-65% versus 38% in lifetime risk of cervical cancer across the ten catch-up birth cohorts and the first ten routine vaccination birth cohorts.INTERPRETATION: Our evidence-based projections suggest that scaling up cervical cancer prevention through single-dose HPV vaccination could substantially reduce cervical cancer burden in India.FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background In the Netherlands, the bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been offered to preadolescent girls via the National Immunization Program in a 2-dose schedule since 2014. The current study estimates vaccine effectiveness (VE) against HPV infections up to 4 years postvaccination among girls eligible for routine 2-dose immunization. Methods A cohort study (HAVANA2) was used in which participants annually filled out an online questionnaire and provided a vaginal self-sample for determination of HPV by the SPF10-LiPA25 assay, able to detect 25 HPV types. VE against incident type-specific infections and pooled outcomes was estimated by a Cox proportional hazards model with shared frailty between the HPV types. Results In total, 2027 girls were included in the study, 1098 (54.2%) of whom were vaccinated with 2 doses. Highest incidence rate was 5.0/1000 person-years (HPV-51) among vaccinated participants and 9.1/1000 person-years (HPV-74) among unvaccinated participants. Adjusted pooled VE was 84.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 27.0%–96.5%) against incident HPV-16/18 infections and 86.5% (95% CI, 39.5%–97.08%) against cross-protective types HPV-31/33/45. Conclusions Four years postvaccination, 2 doses of bivalent HPV vaccine were effective in the prevention of incident HPV-16/18 infections and provided cross-protection to HPV-31/33/45. Our VE estimates rival those from 3-dose schedules, indicating comparable protection by 2-dose schedules.

Genital human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are caused by a broad diversity of genotypes. As available vaccines target a subgroup of these genotypes, monitoring transmission dynamics of nonvaccine genotypes is essential. After reviewing the epidemiological literature on study designs aiming to monitor those dynamics, we evaluated their abilities to detect HPV-prevalence changes following vaccine introduction. We developed an agent-based model to simulate HPV transmission in a heterosexual population under various scenarios of vaccine coverage and genotypic interaction, and reproduced two study designs: post-vs.-prevaccine and vaccinated-vs.-unvaccinated comparisons. We calculated the total sample size required to detect statistically significant prevalence differences at the 5% significance level and 80% power. Although a decrease in vaccine-genotype prevalence was detectable as early as 1 year after vaccine introduction, simulations indicated that the indirect impact on nonvaccine-genotype prevalence (a decrease under synergistic interaction or an increase under competitive interaction) would only be measurable after >10 years whatever the vaccine coverage. Sample sizes required for nonvaccine genotypes were >5 times greater than for vaccine genotypes and tended to be smaller in the post-vs.-prevaccine than in the vaccinated-vs.-unvaccinated design. These results highlight that previously published epidemiological studies were not powerful enough to efficiently detect changes in nonvaccine-genotype prevalence.

Background There is ongoing debate about the possible protective effect of the bivalent human papillomavirus (2vHPV) vaccine, targeting oncogenic types HPV-16/18, against anogenital warts (AGWs), commonly attributed to HPV-6/11. We performed a retrospective registry-based open cohort study to assess the effect of 2vHPV vaccination on AGWs. Methods We linked general practice (ie, primary care) data from women born between 1993 and 2002, who had been eligible for HPV vaccination in the Netherlands, to the Dutch national immunization registry on an individual level. Women were followed until their first AGW diagnosis or end of follow-up. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) were estimated using Poisson regression with vaccination status as a time-dependent exposure. Results We linked data of 96 468 women with a total of 328 019 years observation time and 613 AGW diagnoses (incidence: 1.87/1000 person-years). At the end of follow-up, 61% were 2vHPV vaccinated (≥ 1 dose) of whom 91% were fully vaccinated. The AGW incidence was lower among those with ≥ 1 dose vs 0 doses (aIRR, 0.75 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .64–.88]). The effect of vaccination was stronger after full vaccination (aIRR, 0.72 [95% CI, .61–.86]) and for women who were offered vaccination at 12–13 years of age (aIRR, 0.69 [95% CI, .51–.93]) vs those at 13–16 years of age (aIRR, 0.77 [95% CI, .64–.93]). Conclusions This is the largest population-based study so far to examine the effect of 2vHPV vaccination on AGWs, with reliable individual information on AGW diagnoses and vaccination status. The results indicate that 2vHPV vaccination partially protects against AGWs, especially when administered in early adolescence., In this large population-based cohort study linking primary care and immunization registry data, anogenital wart incidence was significantly reduced among human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16/18–vaccinated vs unvaccinated women, suggesting a partial protective effect of bivalent HPV vaccination against anogenital warts.

Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs achieve substantial population-level impact, with effects extending beyond protection of vaccinated individuals. We assessed trends in HPV prevalence up to 8 years postvaccination among men and women in the Netherlands, where bivalent HPV vaccination, targeting HPV types 16/18, has been offered to (pre)adolescent girls since 2009 with moderate vaccination coverage. Methods We used data from the PASSYON study, a survey initiated in 2009 (prevaccination) and repeated biennially among 16- to 24-year-old visitors of sexual health centers. We studied genital HPV positivity from 2009 to 2017 among women, heterosexual men, and unvaccinated women using Poisson generalized estimating equation models, adjusted for individual- and population-level confounders. Trends were studied for 25 HPV types detected by the SPF10-LiPA25 platform. Results A total of 6354 women (64.7% self-reported unvaccinated) and 2414 heterosexual men were included. Percentual declines in vaccine types HPV-16/18 were observed for all women (12.6% per year [95% confidence interval {CI}, 10.6–14.5]), heterosexual men (13.0% per year [95% CI, 8.3–17.5]), and unvaccinated women (5.4% per year [95% CI, 2.9–7.8]). We observed significant declines in HPV-31 (all women and heterosexual men), HPV-45 (all women), and in all high-risk HPV types pooled (all women and heterosexual men). Significant increases were observed for HPV-56 (all women) and HPV-52 (unvaccinated women). Conclusions Our results provide evidence for first-order herd effects among heterosexual men against HPV-16/18 and cross-protective types. Additionally, we show second-order herd effects against vaccine types among unvaccinated women. These results are promising regarding population-level and clinical impact of girls-only bivalent HPV vaccination in a country with moderate vaccine uptake., This study presents trends in human papillomavirus (HPV) positivity since girls-only HPV vaccine introduction in the Netherlands, with moderate vaccine uptake. We show declining prevalences of vaccine types HPV-16/18 in heterosexual men and unvaccinated women, and of cross-protective types in heterosexual men.

Background: In human papillomavirus (HPV)-based cervical screening programs, management of HPV-positive women with normal cytology is debated. Longitudinal information on HPV type persistence may be employed for risk stratification. Methods: We assessed the risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) after repeatedly testing positive for the same HPV type(s) in the randomized population-based screening study Amsterdam (POBASCAM). We compared 18-month CIN3+ risks in HPV-positive women (intervention, n = 1,066) to those in HPV-positive/cytology-negative women who tested HPV-positive in the next screening round (control, n = 111) five years later, stratified for HPV type concordance. Results: The 18-month CIN3+ risk was 15% in HPV-positive women in the intervention group, 40% in the control group after two-round type concordance (relative risk 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.9–3.4), and 20% in the control group after a type switch (1.3, 0.5–3.2). The relative increase in CIN3+ risk after two-round type concordance was similar in Conclusions: Five-year HPV type concordance signals high CIN3+ risk and warrants referral for colposcopy without additional cytology triage. Impact: HPV screening programs become highly efficient when HPV-positive women with negative triage testing at baseline are offered repeat HPV genotyping after five years.

Birth cohorts vaccinated against human papillomavirus (HPV) are now entering cervical cancer screening. Assessment of (pre)cancer (CIN3+) risk is needed to assess the residual screening need in vaccinated women. We estimated the lifetime (screen‐detected) CIN3+ risk under five‐yearly primary HPV screening between age 30 and 60, using HPV genotyping and histology data of 21,287 women participating in a screening trial with two HPV‐based screening rounds, 5 years apart. The maximum follow‐up after an HPV‐positive test was 9 years. We re‐estimated the CIN3+ risk after projecting direct vaccine efficacy for the bivalent and the nonavalent HPV vaccines, assuming life‐long protection. The lifetime CIN3+ risk was 4.1% (95% confidence interval 3.5‐4.9) and declined by 53.5% and 70.5% after bivalent vaccination without and with cross‐protection, respectively, translating into a residual lifetime CIN3+ risk of 1.9% (1.4‐2.4) and 1.2% (0.9‐1.5). The CIN3+ risk declined by 88.5% after nonavalent vaccination, translating into a residual lifetime CIN3+ risk of 0.5% (0.2‐0.7). The latter risk increased to 1.6% when vaccine protection only lasted until the first screening round at age 30. Among HPV‐positive women with abnormal adjunct cytology, the nine‐year CIN3+ risk was 16.9% (8.7‐32.4) after nonavalent vaccination. In conclusion, HPV vaccination will lead to a strong decline in the lifetime CIN3+ risk and the remaining absolute CIN3+ risk will be very low. Primary HPV testing combined with adjunct cytology at five‐year intervals still seems feasible even after nonavalent vaccination, although unlikely to be cost‐effective. Our results support a de‐intensification of screening programs in settings with high vaccination coverage., What's new? Human papillomavirus (HPV)‐based screening and vaccination are key strategies for early detection and prevention of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and cancer (CIN3+). Here the authors estimated the lifetime screen‐detected CIN3+ risk expected under different HPV vaccination scenarios using a novel statistical, data‐driven approach that deals with multiple‐type HPV infections. The model estimated that the lifetime CIN3+ risks under five‐yearly primary HPV screening will become very low in vaccinated women, in particular when protection is life‐long and provided beyond genotypes 16 and 18. These CIN3+ risks are important when defining new extended screening intervals for vaccinated cohorts.

While the serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae are known to compete during colonization in human hosts, our knowledge of how competition occurs is still incomplete. New insights of pneumococcal between-type competition could be generated from carriage data obtained by molecular-based detection methods, which record more complete sets of serotypes involved in co-carriage than when detection is done by culture. Here, we develop a Bayesian estimation method for inferring between-type interactions from longitudinal data recording the presence/absence of the types at discrete observation times. It allows inference from data containing co-carriage of two or more serotypes, which is often the case when pneumococcal presence is determined by molecular-based methods. The computational burden posed by the increased number of types detected in co-carriage is addressed by approximating the likelihood under a multi-state model with the likelihood of only those trajectories with minimum number of acquisition and clearance events between observation times. The proposed method's performance was validated on simulated data. The estimates of the interaction parameters of acquisition and clearance were unbiased in settings with short sampling intervals between observation times. With less frequent sampling, the estimates of the interaction parameters became more biased, but their ratio, which summarizes the total interaction, remained unbiased. Confounding due to unobserved heterogeneity in exposure could be corrected by including individual-level random effects. In an application to empirical data about pneumococcal carriage in infants, we found new evidence for between-serotype competition in clearance, although the effect size was small.

Infectious diseases often involve multiple pathogen species or multiple strains of the same pathogen. As such, knowledge of how different pathogen species or pathogen strains interact is key to understand and predict the outcome of interventions that target only a single pathogen or subset of strains involved in disease. While population-level data have been used to infer pathogen strain interactions, most previously used inference methods only consider uniform interactions between all strains, or focus on marginal interactions between pairs of strains (without correction for indirect interactions through other strains). Here, we evaluate whether statistical network inference could be useful for reconstructing heterogeneous interaction networks from cross-sectional surveys tracking co-occurrence of multi-strain pathogens. To this end, we applied a suite of network models to data simulating endemic infection states of pathogen strains. Satisfactory performance was demonstrated by unbiased estimation of interaction parameters for large sample size. Accurate reconstruction of networks may require regularization or penalizing for sample size. Of note, performance deteriorated in the presence of host heterogeneity, but this could be overcome by correcting for individual-level risk factors. Our work demonstrates how statistical network inference could prove useful for detecting pathogen interactions and may have implications beyond epidemiology.

To substantiate cross-protection reported across AS04-adjuvanted bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine (2vHPV) studies, we reevaluated vaccine effectiveness against type-specific HPV positivity as a function of phylogenetic distance to vaccine target types HPV-16 and -18. We provide evidence of sustained cross-protection up to 8 years postvaccination in a high-risk population in the Netherlands. Moreover, our findings suggest that genomic distance better explains cross-protection than distance measures based on capsid antigens only. Taken together, 2vHPV is predicted to provide partial cross-protection against HPV-31, -33, -35, -45, -52, and possibly -58, that is, acknowledged oncogenic types with close phylogenetic relationships to HPV-16 or -18., Ongoing surveillance in Dutch sexual health centers demonstrates sustained effectiveness of the bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine against vaccine-targeted types and nontargeted but phylogenetically related types, supporting the hypothesis that vaccine-induced cross-protection is due to genomic similarities between HPV genotypes.

Summary Background In many European countries, human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake among girls has remained below target levels, supporting the scope for vaccination of boys. We aimed to investigate if sex-neutral HPV vaccination can be considered cost-effective compared with girls-only vaccination at uptake levels equal to those among girls and under tender-based vaccination costs achieved throughout Europe. Methods We investigated the cost-effectiveness of sex-neutral HPV vaccination in European tender-based settings. We applied a Bayesian synthesis framework for health economic evaluation to 11 countries (Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Estonia, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden), accommodating country-specific information on key epidemiological and economic parameters, and on current HPV vaccination programmes. We used projections from three independently developed HPV transmission models to tailor region-specific herd effects. The main outcome measures in the comparison of sex-neutral with girls-only vaccination were cancer cases prevented and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), defined as the cost in international dollars (I$) per life-year gained. Findings The total number of cancer cases to be prevented by vaccinating girls at currently realised vaccine uptake varied from 318 (95% CI 197–405) per cohort of 200 000 preadolescents (100 000 girls plus 100 000 boys) in Croatia (under 20% uptake of the 9-valent vaccine) to 1904 (1741–2101) in Estonia (under 70% uptake of the 9-valent vaccine). Vaccinating boys at equal coverage increased these respective numbers by 168 (95% CI 121–213) in Croatia and 467 (391–587) in Estonia. Sex-neutral vaccination was likely to be cost-effective, with ICERs of sex-neutral compared with girls-only vaccination varying from I$4300 per life-year gained in Latvia (95% credibility interval 3450–5160; 40% uptake) to I$25 720 per life-year gained in Spain (21 380–30 330; 80% uptake). At uniform 80% uptake, a favourable cost-effectiveness profile was retained for most of the countries investigated (Austria, Belgium, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden). Interpretation Sex-neutral HPV vaccination is economically attractive in European tender-based settings. However, tendering mechanisms need to ensure that vaccination of boys will remain cost-effective at high vaccine uptake rates. Funding European Commission 7th Framework Programme and WHO.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) epidemiological and vaccine studies require highly sensitive HPV detection systems. The widely used broad-spectrum SPF10-DEIA-LiPA25 (SPF10 method) has reduced sensitivity towards HPV-45 and -59. Therefore, anogenital samples from the PASSYON study were retrospectively analyzed with type-specific (TS) HPV-45 and -59 qPCR assays. The SPF10 method missed 51.1% of HPV-45 and 76.1% of HPV-59 infections, detected by the TS qPCR assays. Viral copy number (VCn) of SPF10 missed HPV-45 and -59 was significantly lower than SPF10 detected HPV-45 and -59 (p

Introduction: In 2009, girls-only HPV16/18 vaccination was introduced in the Netherlands which has achieved 46-61% uptake. Heterosexual men have benefitted from herd protection, but it is unknown whether men who have sex with men (MSM) also benefit from herd effects of the girls-only HPV16/18 vaccination program. Because MSM bear a high HPV-related disease burden, countries might consider targeted vaccination for MSM. To study possible herd effects and prior HPV exposure at a potential moment of vaccination, we assessed trends in the HPV prevalence and proportions (sero)negative for the various vaccine types among young MSM visiting sexual health centers (SHCs).Methods: We used data from MSM included in PASSYON study years 2009-2017. In this biennial cross-sectional study among visitors of SHCs aged 16-24 years, MSM provided a penile and anal swab for HPV DNA testing (including vaccine types HPV6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58) and blood for HPV antibody testing (HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58).Results: In total 575 MSM were included, with a median of 22 years of age and 15 lifetime sex partners and 3.5% HIV positive. Trends in penile or anal HPV prevalence during 2009-2017 were statistically non-significant for all vaccine types. Of the 455 MSM with a penile and anal swab, 360 (79%), 283 (62%) and 242 (53%) were HPV DNA negative at both anatomical sites for HPV16/18, HPV6/11/16/18 and HPV6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58 respectively. Among MSM who were HPV16/18 and HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58 DNA negative and were tested for serology (n = 335 and 279 respectively), 82% and 71% were also seronegative for the respective types.Discussion: There were no significant declines in the HPV prevalence among MSM up to eight years after introduction of girls-only HPV16/18 vaccination, indicating that MSM are unlikely to benefit largely from herd effects from girls-only vaccination. Most MSM were vaccine-type DNA negative and seronegative, suggesting that vaccination of young MSM visiting SHCs could still be beneficial. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Introduction: Girls-only vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 and 18 was implemented in the Netherlands in 2009. Despite the evidence of the efficacy against precancerous lesions, cross-protection induced by the vaccine and a greater potential for cancer prevention than cervical cancer only, vaccine coverage in the girls-only program has remained below target levels. Areas covered: In this paper, we review the literature from the Netherlands on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination since vaccine introduction, give an account of the coverage, safety and effectiveness of HPV vaccination as has been reported in the Dutch surveillance program and discuss challenges of the current HPV vaccination program. Expert commentary: Girls-only HPV vaccination may confer a substantial health gain in HPV-related disease prevention. However, vaccine coverage declined remarkably recently possibly related to safety concerns, limiting the benefits from girls’ vaccination and increasing the potential additional benefit of sex-neutral HPV vaccination. Considering the emergence of novel vaccination and screening options and the change from cytology- to HPV-based screening in 2017, further research is required to inform decisions on the optimization of an integrated vaccination and screening program.

Objectives Female anorectal Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) infections are common irrespective of recent anal sex. We explored the role of anorectal infections in chlamydia transmission and estimated the impact of interventions aimed at improved detection and treatment of anorectal infections.Methods We developed a pair compartmental model of heterosexuals aged 15-29 years attending STI clinics, in which women can be susceptible to or infected with chlamydia urogenitally and/or anorectally and men urogenitally. Transmission probabilities per vaginal and anal sex act, together with an autoinoculation probability, were estimated by fitting to anatomic site-specific prevalence data (14% urogenital; 11% anorectal prevalence). We investigated the 10-year reduction in female chlamydia prevalence of interventions (universal anorectal testing of female STI clinic attendees or doxycycline use for urogenital chlamydia) relative to continued current care (anorectal testing on indication and doxycycline for anorectal and azithromycin for urogenital chlamydia).Results The transmission probability per anal sex act was 5.8% (IQR 3.0-8.3%), per vaginal sex act 2.0% (IQR 1.7-2.2%) and the daily autoinoculation probability was 0.7% (IQR 0.5-1.0%). More anorectal chlamydia infections were caused by autoinoculation than by recent anal sex. Universal anorectal testing reduced population prevalence modestly with 8.7% (IQR 7.6-9.7%), yet the reduction was double that of doxycycline use for urogenital infections (4.3% (IQR 3.5-5.3%)) relative to continued current care.Conclusions Autoinoculation between anatomic sites in women might play a role in sustaining high chlamydia prevalence. A shift to more anorectal testing of female STI clinic attendees may be considered for its (albeit modest) impact on reducing prevalence.

Purpose: Besides cervical cancer, HPV infection is linked to a multitude of diseases in both males and females, suggesting that vaccination programmes should be re-evaluated, with a judicious assessment made of the disease burden stratified by sex, age, and genotype. Projections of burden into the near future are also needed to provide a benchmark for evaluating the impact of vaccination programmes, and to assess the need for scaling-up preventive measures. Methods: Using the disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) measure, we estimated the total HPV-associated disease burden in the Netherlands. Annual cancer registrations over the period 1989–2014 for all cancers with an aetiological link to HPV infection were retrieved, supplemented by incidence data on high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and anogenital warts. Results: Over the recent period 2011–2014, the average annual HPV disease burden was 10,600 DALYs (95% credible interval (CrI):10,260–10,960) in females and 3,346 DALYs (95% CrI: 2,973–3,762) in males. Burden was dominated by cervical cancer, but its share amongst women decreased from 89% in 1989 to 77% in 2014. The male share of the total disease burden increased from 9.8% in 1989 to 26% in 2014. In 2023 (before the expected clinical impact from vaccinating girls), total burden is forecasted at 1.3-fold larger than in 2014. Conclusions: The HPV-associated disease burden is higher than that reported for any other infectious disease in the Netherlands, with a larger burden observed in women than in men. The rapidly rising male share of the total burden underlines the prioritization of male HPV-related disease in prevention programmes.

Background Although human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are highly efficacious in protecting against HPV infections and related diseases, vaccination may trigger replacement by nontargeted genotypes if these compete with the vaccine-targeted types. HPV genotype replacement has been deemed unlikely, based on the lack of systematic increases in the prevalence of nonvaccine-type (NVT) infection in the first decade after vaccination, and on the presence of cross-protection for some NVTs. Methods To investigate whether type replacement can be inferred from early postvaccination surveillance, we constructed a transmission model in which a vaccine type and an NVT compete through infection-induced cross-immunity. We simulated scenarios of different levels of cross-immunity and vaccine-induced cross-protection to the NVT. We validated whether commonly used measures correctly indicate type replacement in the long run. Results Type replacement is a trade-off between cross-immunity and cross-protection; cross-immunity leads to type replacement unless cross-protection is strong enough. With weak cross-protection, NVT prevalence may initially decrease before rebounding into type replacement, exhibiting a honeymoon period. Importantly, vaccine effectiveness for NVTs is inadequate for indicating type replacement. Conclusions Although postvaccination surveillance thus far is reassuring, it is still too early to preclude type replacement. Monitoring of NVTs remains pivotal in gauging population-level impacts of HPV vaccination., It is probably still too early to preclude human papillomavirus genotype replacement after a decade of postvaccine surveillance, because replacement could occur after a honeymoon period owing to the combination of infection-induced cross-immunity and vaccine-induced cross-protection for a nonvaccine type.

Background Persistent high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is endorsed by the World Health Organization as an intermediate endpoint for evaluating HPV vaccine effectiveness/efficacy. There are different approaches to estimate the vaccine effectiveness/efficacy against persistent HPV infections. Methods We performed a systematic literature search in Pubmed to identify statistical approaches that have been used to estimate the vaccine effectiveness/efficacy against persistent HPV infections. We applied these methods to data of a longitudinal observational study to assess their performance and compare the obtained vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates. Results Our literature search identified four approaches: the conditional exact test for comparing two independent Poisson rates using a binomial distribution, Generalized Estimating Equations for Poisson regression, Prentice Williams and Peterson total time (PWP-TT) and Cox proportional hazards regression. These approaches differ regarding underlying assumptions and provide different effect measures. However, they provided similar effectiveness estimates against HPV16/18 and HPV31/33/45 persistent infections in a cohort of young women eligible for routine HPV vaccination (range VE 93.7–95.1% and 60.4–67.7%, respectively) and seemed robust to violations of underlying assumptions. Conclusions As the rate of subsequent infections increased in our observational cohort, we recommend PWP-TT as the optimal approach to estimate the vaccine effectiveness against persistent HPV infections in young women. Confirmation of our findings should be undertaken by applying these methods after longer follow-up in our study, as well as in different populations.

Background Because men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionally affected by human papillomavirus (HPV) related cancers, countries might consider targeted HPV vaccination for MSM. We assessed the prevalence of vaccine-preventable HPV types among young MSM visiting sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics in the Netherlands. Methods We used data from MSM included in the PASSYON study, a biennial cross-sectional study among STI clinic visitors aged 16–24 years that started in 2009 when girls-only HPV vaccination was introduced. MSM were asked to provide a penile and anal swab for HPV DNA testing (including the vaccine-preventable types HPV6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58) and blood for HPV antibody testing (HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58). Results We included 575 MSM with a median age of 22 years and a median of 15 lifetime partners. No trends in penile or anal HPV prevalence over time were seen. Of the 455 MSM with both swabs available, 79%, 62% and 53% were HPV DNA negative at both anatomic sites for HPV16/18, HPV6/11/16/18 and HPV6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58 respectively. Most of these MSM who were HPV DNA negative, were also seronegative (80% for HPV16/18 and 70% for HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58). Conclusion The HPV prevalence among MSM did not decline since girls-only vaccination was introduced indicating that MSM are unlikely to benefit from herd effects from girls-only vaccination. Because the majority of young MSM visiting the STI clinic were (sero)negative for HPV16/18, the most important oncogenic types in males, targeting this group for HPV vaccination could still be beneficial. Disclosure No significant relationships.

BACKGROUND: Genotype attribution in high-grade cervical lesions (CIN3+) can be calculated by the hierarchical or proportional method, but these do not account for the genotype distribution in the general population and cannot assess the number of genotype-specific high-grade cervical lesions (CIN3+). METHODS: We present a statistical method for estimating genotype-specific CIN3+ risks and genotype attribution in CIN3+ from cervical screening samples. A key assumption is that genotype-specific infections in women with multiple infections have independent progression risks. We applied the method to 512 human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive women referred for colposcopy and validated it by laser-capture microscopy-polymerase chain reaction. We also compared performance by simulation. RESULTS: For endpoint CIN3+, the summed deviation of attributable fractions between the estimated genotype-specific attributable fractions and laser-capture microscopy polymerase chain reaction-based attributable fractions was similar for the three methods: 0.17 for the new method (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.091, 0.28), 0.19 (95% CI = 0.11, 0.33) for the hierarchical method and 0.15 (95% CI = 0.085, 0.26) for the proportional method. Simulations indicated that the new method outperformed the other methods for endpoint CIN3+ when the number of HPV-positive women was large. Exclusion of HPV16-positive women had only a small effect on the estimated genotype-specific risks, supporting the independence assumption. CONCLUSIONS: Genotype-specific attribution in CIN3+ can be accurately predicted by a model that assumes independence between genotypes with respect to disease progression. The method can be used to monitor HPV vaccine effectiveness for prevention of genotype-specific CIN3+ and to assess disease risk after vaccination.

Background Modelling studies have been widely used to inform human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination policy decisions; however, many models exist and it is not known whether they produce consistent predictions of population-level effectiveness and herd effects. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of model predictions of the long-term population-level effectiveness of vaccination against HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 infection in women and men, to examine the variability in predicted herd effects, incremental benefit of vaccinating boys, and potential for HPV-vaccine-type elimination. Methods We searched MEDLINE and Embase for transmission-dynamic modelling studies published between Jan 1, 2009, and April 28, 2015, that predicted the population-level impact of vaccination on HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 infections in high-income countries. We contacted authors to determine whether they were willing to produce new predictions for standardised scenarios. Strategies investigated were girls-only vaccination and girls and boys vaccination at age 12 years. Base-case vaccine characteristics were 100% efficacy and lifetime protection. We did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy, and duration of protection. For all scenarios we pooled model predictions of relative reductions in HPV prevalence (RRprev) over time after vaccination and summarised results using the median and 10th and 90th percentiles (80% uncertainty intervals [UI]). Findings 16 of 19 eligible models from ten high-income countries provided predictions. Under base-case assumptions, 40% vaccination coverage and girls-only vaccination, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·53 (80% UI 0·46–0·68) and 0·36 (0·28–0·61), respectively, after 70 years. With 80% girls-only vaccination coverage, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·93 (0·90–1·00) and 0·83 (0·75–1·00), respectively. Vaccinating boys in addition to girls increased the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men by 0·18 (0·13–0·32) and 0·35 (0·27–0·39) for 40% coverage, and 0·07 (0·00–0·10) and 0·16 (0·01–0·25) for 80% coverage, respectively. The RRprev were greater for HPV 6, 11, and 18 than for HPV 16 for all scenarios investigated. Finally at 80% coverage, most models predicted that girls and boys vaccination would eliminate HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18, with a median RRprev of 1·00 for women and men for all four HPV types. Variability in pooled findings was low, but increased with lower vaccination coverage and shorter vaccine protection (from lifetime to 20 years). Interpretation Although HPV models differ in structure, data used for calibration, and settings, our population-level predictions were generally concordant and suggest that strong herd effects are expected from vaccinating girls only, even with coverage as low as 20%. Elimination of HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 is possible if 80% coverage in girls and boys is reached and if high vaccine efficacy is maintained over time. Funding Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Since 2014, several countries have implemented a 2-dose schedule for Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. Licensure of the 2-dose schedule was based on non-inferiority results from immunobridging studies, comparing the antibody levels of the 2-dose schedule in young girls to those of the 3-dose schedule in young adults. Since licensure, additional data on antibody levels and other aspects of the immune response and clinical effectiveness have become available. This review will discuss the current outcomes on immunogenicity and effectiveness together with an exploration on the population impact of 2-dose schedules from a cost-effectiveness perspective. The 2-dose schedule has important benefits, such as easier logistics, reduced expenditure, potentially higher acceptance and fewer side effects. Policymakers and registration authorities should consider whether these benefits outweigh the likely differences on individual- and population-level impact between the 2- and 3-dose schedules.

Current HPV vaccines target a subset of the oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) types. If HPV types compete during infection, vaccination may trigger replacement by the non-targeted types. Existing approaches to assess the risk of type replacement have focused on detecting competitive interactions between pairs of vaccine and non-vaccine types. However, methods to translate any inferred pairwise interactions into predictors of replacement have been lacking. In this paper, we develop practical predictors of type replacement in a multi-type setting, readily estimable from pre-vaccination longitudinal or cross-sectional prevalence data. The predictors we propose for replacement by individual non-targeted types take the form of weighted cross-hazard ratios of acquisition versus clearance, or aggregate odds ratios of coinfection with the vaccine types. We elucidate how the hazard-based predictors incorporate potentially heterogeneous direct and indirect type interactions by appropriately weighting type-specific hazards and show when they are equivalent to the odds-based predictors. Additionally, pooling type-specific predictors proves to be useful for predicting increase in the overall non-vaccine-type prevalence. Using simulations, we demonstrate good performance of the predictors under different interaction structures. We discuss potential applications and limitations of the proposed methodology in predicting type replacement, as compared to existing approaches. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Silent cancer agents: multi-disciplinary modelling of human DNA oncoviruses’.

Indications for human papillomavirus vaccination programs are expanding to boys. However, the rationale behind their inclusion is often not clear. Using a Bayesian synthesis framework and assuming equal vaccine coverage in both sexes, we assessed how the incremental number of cancer cases prevented and life-years gained from boys’ vaccination are distributed between women, heterosexual men, and men who have sex with men (MSM). Below 60% coverage, at least 50% of the gains from boys’ vaccination was attributable to cervical cancer prevention, whereas at 80% coverage, 50% of the gains was attributable to women, 15% to heterosexual men, and 35% to MSM. Above 90% coverage, 85–100% of the gains from boys’ vaccination was attributable to anal and oropharyngeal cancer prevention, mainly in MSM. Sex-neutral vaccination can be advocated on grounds of bolstering herd protection to women and directly protecting men, particularly MSM, with the clinical significance of either argument determined by the coverage.

Background Vaccine price is one of the most influential parameters in economic evaluations of HPV vaccination programmes. Vaccine tendering is a cost-containment method widely used by national or regional health authorities, but information on tender-based HPV vaccine prices is scarce. Methods Procurement notices and awards for the HPV vaccines, published from January 2007 until January 2018, were systematically retrieved from the online platform for public procurement in Europe. Information was collected from national or regional tenders organized for publicly funded preadolescent vaccination programmes against HPV. The influence of variables on the vaccine price was estimated by means of a mixed-effects model. Findings Prices were collected from 178 procurements announced in 15 European countries. The average price per dose for the first-generation HPV vaccines decreased from €101.8 (95% CI 91.3–114) in 2007 to €28.4 (22.6–33.5) in 2017, whereas the average dose price of the 9-valent vaccine in 2016–2017 was €49.1 (38.0–66.8). Unit prices were, respectively, €7.5 (4.4–10.6) and €34.4 (27.4–41.4) higher for the 4-valent and 9-valent vaccines than for the 2-valent vaccine. Contract volume and duration, level of procurement (region or country), per capita GDP and number of offers received had a significant effect on vaccine price. Interpretation HPV vaccine procurement is widely used across Europe. The fourfold decrease in the average tender-based prices compared to list prices confirms the potential of tendering as an efficient cost-containment strategy, thereby expanding the indications for cost-effective HPV vaccination to previously ineligible target groups. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10198-018-0996-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BACKGROUND: Many multivalent vaccines target only a subset of all pathogenic types. If vaccine and nonvaccine types compete, vaccination may lead to type replacement. The plausibility of type replacement has been assessed using the odds ratio (OR) of co-infections in cross-sectional prevalence data, with OR > 1 being interpreted as low risk of type replacement. The usefulness of the OR as a predictor for type replacement is debated, as it lacks a theoretical justification, and there is no framework explaining under which assumptions the OR predicts type replacement. METHODS: We investigate the values that the OR can take based on deterministic S usceptible- I infected- S usceptible and S usceptible- Infected- Recovered- S usceptible multitype transmission models. We consider different mechanisms of type interactions and explore parameter values ranging from synergistic to competitive interactions. RESULTS: We find that OR > 1 might mask competition because of confounding due to unobserved common risk factors and cross-immunity, as indicated by earlier studies. We prove mathematically that unobserved common risk factors lead to an elevation of the OR, and present an intuitive explanation why cross-immunity increases the OR. We find that OR < 1 is predictive for type replacement in the absence of immunity. With immunity, OR < 1 remains predictive under biologically reasonable assumptions of unidirectional interactions during infection, and an absence of immunity-induced synergism. CONCLUSIONS: Using the OR in cross-sectional data to predict type replacement is justified, but is only unambiguous under strict assumptions. An accurate prediction of type replacement requires pathogen-specific knowledge on common risk factors and cross-immunity.

Cervical cancer arises differentially from infections with up to 14 high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) types, making model-based evaluations of cervical cancer screening strategies computationally heavy and structurally complex. Thus, with the high number of HPV types, microsimulation is typically used to investigate cervical cancer screening strategies. We developed a feasible deterministic model that integrates varying natural history of cervical cancer by the different high-risk HPV types with compressed mixture representations of the screened population, allowing for fast computation of screening interventions. To evaluate the method, we built a corresponding microsimulation model. The outcomes of the deterministic model were stable over different levels of compression and agreed with the microsimulation model for all disease states, screening outcomes, and levels of cancer incidence. The compression reduced the computation time more than 1000 fold when compared to microsimulation in a cohort of 1 million women. The compressed mixture representations enable the assessment of uncertainties surrounding the natural history of cervical cancer and screening decisions in a computationally undemanding way.

Background Monitoring vaccine effectiveness (VE) in vaccination programs is of importance for assessing the impact of immunization. This study aimed to estimate the VE of the bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine against incident and 12-month persistent infections up to 6 years after vaccination. Methods In 2009-2010, girls eligible for the vaccination catch-up campaign (ie, those aged 14-16 years) were enrolled into a prospective cohort. Annually, participants completed a questionnaire and submitted a self-collected vaginal swab sample for HPV testing by the SPF10-LiPA25 assay. We compared sociodemographic characteristics and infection rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated girls. The VE was adjusted for characteristics related to HPV vaccination status. We used combined end points for VE estimation. Results In total, 1635 women, of whom 54% were fully vaccinated, were included for VE estimation. The adjusted VE against HPV16 and 18 persistent infections amounted to 97.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 83.5%-99.7%). We found a VE against HPV31, 33, and 45 persistent infections of 61.8% (95% CI, 16.7%-82.5%). We found no indications that the protection against vaccine or cross-protective types changes over time. Conclusion Our findings of nearly full protection against vaccine-type persistent infections and significant cross-protection to nonvaccine types in a population-based cohort study confirm the effectiveness of the bivalent HPV vaccine as estimated in trials. We found no indications for waning protection up to 6 years after vaccination.

Background Uptake of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine among girls in the Dutch immunization program has plateaued at around 60%. Vaccinating boys may be an appealing complementary strategy for the prevention of HPV-related diseases, especially since tender negotiations and reduced dosing schemes have driven down the cost of vaccination. Methods We expanded a previously published Bayesian synthesis framework to account for all vaccine type-related cancers and herd immunity effects from vaccinating girls and boys. We evaluated the efficiency of vaccinating boys relative to increasing vaccine uptake among girls and assessed the cost-effectiveness of a sex-neutral program. Results Vaccinating 40% of boys along with 60% of girls yielded the same gain in life-years (LYs) as increasing the uptake in girls from 60% to 80%. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of vaccinating boys was €9134/LY (95% credible interval [CrI], €7323/LY-€11231/LY) under 3% discounting. The ceiling vaccination costs at which the ICER remained below the per capita gross domestic product threshold was €240 (95% CrI, €200-€280) per vaccinated boy. If girls' uptake increased to 90%, the ceiling costs decreased to €70 (95% CrI, €40-€100) per vaccinated boy. Conclusions Vaccinating boys along with girls is only modestly less efficient than increasing uptake among girls and highly likely to be cost-effective under current vaccine costs and uptake in the Netherlands.

Objectives: Data from a vaccine trial and from post-vaccine surveillance in the United Kingdom have suggested that the bivalent HPV-16/18 vaccine offers cross-protection against HPV-6/11 and protection against anogenital warts (AGW). We studied the effect of the bivalent vaccine on genital HPV-6/11 positivity and AGW in the Netherlands.Methods: We included all vaccine-eligible women from the PASSYON study, a biennial cross-sectional study among 16- to 24-year-old sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinic attendants. Vaginal self-swabs were analyzed for type specific HPV and AGW were diagnosed at the STI-clinic. Prevalence of HPV-6 and/or HPV-11 and AGW were compared between self-reported vaccinated and unvaccinated women by log-binomial regression analysis, adjusted for demographics and risk behavior.Results: Of the 1198 women included, 56% reported to be vaccinated at least once. Relative to unvaccinated women, the adjusted prevalence ratio (PR) for HPV-6/11 was 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74-1.43) for women vaccinated at least once. The crude PR for AGW was 0.67 (95% CI 0.22-2.07) for women vaccinated at least once. Adjustment did not change these results.Conclusions: We observed no cross-protective effect of the bivalent vaccine on genital HPV-6/11 positivity and a non-significant partially protective effect on AGW. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The British Infection Association.

Cytological screening has substantially decreased the cervical cancer incidence, but even better protection may be achieved by primary high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) screening. In the Netherlands, five-yearly cytological screening for women aged 30-60 years will be replaced by primary hrHPV screening in 2016. The new screening guidelines involve an extension of the screening interval from 5 to 10 years for hrHPV-negative women aged 40 or 50 years. We investigated the impact of this program change on the lifetime cancer risks in women without an hrHPV infection at age 30, 35, 40, 45 or 50 years. The time to cancer was estimated using 14-year follow-up data from a population-based screening intervention trial and the nationwide database of histopathology reports. The new screening guidelines are expected to lead to a reduced cervical cancer risk for all age groups. The average risk reduction was 34% and was smallest (25%) among women aged 35 years. The impact of hrHPV screening on the cancer risk was sensitive to the duration from cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3 (CIN2/3) to cancer; a small increase in the cancer risk was estimated for women aged 35 or 40 years in case a substantial proportion of CIN2/3 showed fast progression to cancer. Our results indicate that primary hrHPV screening with a ten-yearly interval for hrHPV-negative women of age 40 and beyond will lead to a further reduction in lifetime cancer risk compared to five-yearly cytology, provided that precancerous lesions progress slowly to cancer.

Intense research activity in HPV modelling over this decade has prompted the development of additional guidelines to those for general modelling. A specific framework is required to address different policy questions and unique complexities of HPV modelling. HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a consensus statement and quality-based framework for epidemiologic and economic HPV models. Its development involved an established process. Reporting standards have been structured according to seven domains reflecting distinct policy questions in HPV and cancer prevention and categorised by relevance to a population or evaluation. Population-relevant domains are: 1) HPV vaccination in pre-adolescent and young adolescent individuals; 2) HPV vaccination in older individuals; 3) targeted vaccination in men who have sex with men; 4) considerations for individuals living with HIV and 5) considerations for low- and middle-income countries. Additional considerations applicable to specific evaluations are: 6) cervical screening or integrated cervical screening and HPV vaccination approaches and 7) alternative vaccine types and alternative dosing schedules. HPV-FRAME aims to promote the development of models in accordance with an explicit framework, to better enable target audiences to understand a model's strength and weaknesses in relation to a specific policy question and ultimately improve the model's contribution to informed decision-making., Highlights • General modelling guidelines are insufficient for reporting HPV models. • HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a quality-based framework for HPV models. • The framework has seven domains consisting of distinct reporting standards. • HPV-FRAME aims to promote transparency and improve the quality in reporting.

Item does not contain fulltext In view of possible type replacement upon introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, we aimed to explore patterns of type-specific clustering across populations with various background infection risks. A total of 3,874 women from 3 cross-sectional studies in the Netherlands (in 2007-2009) provided vaginal self-samples, which were tested for 25 HPV genotypes by a sensitive molecular assay (SPF10 line probe assay, DDL Diagnostic Laboratory, Voorburg, the Netherlands). The number of concurrent HPV infections per woman was studied by Poisson regression. Associations between HPV types were investigated by generalized estimating equation analyses. The prevalence of any HPV type was 14% in a population-based study, 54% in a chlamydia screening intervention study, and 73% in a study among attendees of sexually transmitted infection clinics. Overall, multiple HPV infections were detected in 26% of the women. The number of concurrent HPV infections conformed to an overdispersed Poisson distribution, even after correction for known risk factors. Types differed significantly in their tendencies to be involved in coinfections, but no evidence for particular type-type interactions was found. Moreover, the strongest associations were observed in the lowest-risk population and vice versa.We found no indications of pairwise interactions, but our findings do suggest that clustering differs among HPV types and varies across risk groups.