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ObjectiveFrailty is increasingly recognized as a key determinant in predicting postoperative outcomes. Centers that see more frail patients may not be captured in risk adjustment, potentially accounting for poorer outcomes in hospital comparisons. We aimed to (1) determine the effect of frailty on long-term mortality in patients undergoing elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and (2) evaluate the variability in frailty burden among centers in the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database.MethodsPatients undergoing elective open and endovascular AAA repair (2003-2017) were identified, and those with complete data on component variables of the VQI-derived Risk Analysis Index (VQI-RAI) and centers with ≥10 AAA repairs were included. VQI-RAI characteristics are sex, age, body mass index, renal failure, congestive heart failure, dyspnea, preoperative ambulation, and functional status. Frailty was defined as VQI-RAI ≥35 based on prior work in surgical patients using other quality improvement databases. This corresponds to the top 12% of patients at risk in the VQI. Center-level VQI-RAI differences were assessed by analysis of variance test. Relationships between frailty and survival were compared by Kaplan-Meier analysis and the log-rank test for open and endovascular procedures. Multivariable hierarchical Cox proportional hazards regression models were calculated with random intercepts for center, controlling for frailty, race, insurance, AAA diameter, procedure type, AAA case mix, and year.ResultsA total of 15,803 patients from 185 centers were included. Mean VQI-RAI scores were 27.6 (standard deviation, 5.9; range, 4-56) and varied significantly across centers (F = 2.41, P < .001). The percentage of frail patients per center ranged from 0% to 40.0%. In multivariable analysis, frailty was independently associated with long-term mortality (hazard ratio, 2.88; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-3.2) after accounting for covariates and center-level variance. Open AAA repair was not associated with long-term mortality after adjusting for frailty (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-1.13). There was a statistically significant difference in the percentage of frail patients compared with nonfrail patients who were discharged to a rehabilitation facility or nursing home after both open (40.5% vs 17.8%; P < .0001) and endovascular repair (17.7% vs 4.6%; P < .0001).ConclusionsThere is considerable variability of preoperative frailty among VQI centers performing elective AAA repair. Adjusting for center-level variation, frailty but not procedure type had a significant association with long-term mortality; however, frailty and procedure type were both associated with nonhome discharge. Routine measurement of frailty preoperatively by centers to identify high-risk patients may help mitigate procedural and long-term outcomes and improve shared decision-making regarding AAA repair.

ImportanceRandomized clinical trials have demonstrated that patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis are eligible for carotid endarterectomy (CEA) if the 30-day surgical complication rate is less than 3% and the patient's life expectancy is at least 5 years.ObjectiveTo develop a risk prediction tool to improve patient selection for CEA among patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis.Design, setting, and participantsIn this cohort study, veterans 65 years and older who received both carotid imaging and CEA in the Veterans Administration between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2009 (n = 2325) were followed up for 5 years. Data were analyzed from January 2005 to December 2015. A risk prediction tool (the Carotid Mortality Index [CMI]) based on 23 candidate variables identified in the literature was developed using Veterans Administration and Medicare data. A simpler model based on the number of 4 key comorbidities that were prevalent and strongly associated with 5-year mortality was also developed (any cancer in the past 5 years, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, and chronic kidney disease [the 4C model]). Model performance was assessed using measures of discrimination (eg, area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration. Internal validation was performed by correcting for optimism using 500 bootstrapped samples.Main outcome and measureFive-year mortality.ResultsAmong 2325 veterans, the mean (SD) age was 73.74 (5.92) years. The cohort was predominantly male (98.8%) and of white race/ethnicity (94.4%). Overall, 29.5% (n = 687) of patients died within 5 years of CEA. On the basis of a backward selection algorithm, 9 patient characteristics were selected (age, chronic kidney disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, any cancer diagnosis in the past 5 years, congestive heart failure, atrial fibrillation, remote stroke or transient ischemic attack, and body mass index) for the final logistic model, which yielded an optimism-corrected AUC of 0.687 for the CMI. The 4C model had slightly worse discrimination (AUC, 0.657) compared with the CMI model; however, the calibration curve was similar to the full model in most of the range of predicted probabilities.Conclusions and relevanceAccording to results of this study, use of the CMI or the simpler 4C model may improve patient selection for CEA among patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis.

ImportanceNational guidelines do not agree on the role of carotid screening in asymptomatic patients (ie, patients who have not had a stroke or transient ischemic attack). Recently, several physician organizations participating in the Choosing Wisely campaign have identified carotid imaging in selected asymptomatic populations as being of low value. However, the majority of patients who are evaluated for carotid stenosis and subsequently revascularized are asymptomatic.ObjectiveTo better understand why asymptomatic patients who undergo revascularization receive initial carotid imaging.Design, setting, and participantsRetrospective cohort study of 4127 Veterans Health Administration patients 65 years and older undergoing carotid revascularization for asymptomatic carotid stenosis between 2005 and 2009.Main outcomes and measuresIndications for carotid ultrasounds were extracted using trained abstractors. Frequency of indications and appropriateness of initial carotid ultrasound imaging for patients within each rating category after the intervention were reported.ResultsThe mean (SD) age of this cohort of 4127 patients was 73.6 (5.9) years; 4014 (98.8%) were male. Overall, there were 5226 indications for 4063 carotid ultrasounds. The most common indications listed were carotid bruit (1578 [30.2% of indications]) and follow-up for carotid disease (stenosis/history of carotid disease) in patients who had previously documented carotid stenosis (1087 [20.8% of indications]). Multiple vascular risk factors were the next most common indication listed. Rates of appropriate, uncertain, and inappropriate imaging were 5.4% (227 indications), 83.4% (3387 indications), and 11.3% (458 indications), respectively. Among the most common inappropriate indications were dizziness/vertigo and syncope. Among the 4063 patients, 3373 (83.0%) received a carotid endarterectomy. Overall, 663 procedures were performed in patients 80 years and older.Conclusions and relevanceCarotid bruit and follow-up for carotid disease accounted for approximately half of all indications provided by physicians for carotid testing. Strong consideration should be given to improving the evidence base around carotid testing, especially around monitoring stenosis over long periods and evaluating carotid bruits. Targeting carotid ultrasound ordering with decision support tools may also be an important step in reducing use of low-value imaging.