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Soil moisture is a key environmental factor for plant cultivation: too little and plant growth is restricted due to drought conditions; too much and soil becomes water-logged. It is important to understand how well climate models can represent current soil moisture processes as well as how soil moisture will respond to a changing climate, to inform adaptation of plant cultivation to future climate change. We explore current and future climate soil moisture conditions alongside water cycle processes such as evaporation and run-off in the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Three model ensembles are available: UKCP Global, Regional and Local, with horizontal resolutions of 60km, 12km and 2.2km respectively. These each contain the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) model as their land surface component. This suite of models offers the opportunity to understand the effects of parameter uncertainty and spatial resolution. Firstly, we assess the performance of the Global and Regional simulations by evaluating results from the baseline period (1981-2010) in terms of soil moisture (and the overall water balance) by comparing it to observations and to JULES driven by observations. Secondly, we assess how the water balance responds to a high future greenhouse gas concentration pathway. We find that soil moisture is likely to be lower in the summer and early autumn and spends a longer time below levels optimal for plant growth. The potential drivers of this change are explored, including future changes in precipitation and evaporation.

Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near-surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning of the anthropogenic influence to individual factors, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, is much less robust. Differences in how forcing factors are applied, in their radiative influence and in models' climate sensitivities, substantially influence the response patterns. We find that standard optimal detection methodologies cannot fully reconcile this response diversity. By selecting a set of experiments to enable the diagnosing of greenhouse gases and the combined influence of other anthropogenic and natural factors, we find robust detections of well-mixed greenhouse gases across a large ensemble of models. Of the observed warming over the twentieth century of 0.65 K/century we find, using a multimodel mean not incorporating pattern uncertainty, a well-mixed greenhouse gas warming of 0.87 to 1.22 K/century. This is partially offset by cooling from other anthropogenic and natural influences of −0.54 to −0.22 K/century. Although better constrained than recent studies, the attributable trends across climate models are still wide, with implications for observational constrained estimates of transient climate response. Some of the uncertainties could be reduced in future by having more model data to better quantify the simulated estimates of the signals and natural variability, by designing model experiments more effectively and better quantification of the climate model radiative influences. Most importantly, how model pattern uncertainties are incorporated into the optimal detection methodology should be improved.

We assess the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models. The hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability is rejected at a high confidence level independent of the climate model used to simulate either the anthropogenic signal or the internal variability. Where the relevant simulations are available, we also consider the alternative hypothesis that observed changes are due entirely to natural external influences, including solar variability and explosive volcanic activity. We allow for the possibility that feedback processes, other than those simulated by the models considered, may be amplifying the observed response to these natural influences by an unknown amount. Even allowing for this possibility, the hypothesis of no anthropogenic influence can be rejected at the 5% level in almost all cases. The influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emerges as a substantial contributor to recent observed climate change, with the estimated trend attributable to greenhouse forcing similar in magnitude to the total observed warming over the 20th century. Much greater uncertainty remains in the response to other external influences on climate, particularly the response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols and to solar and volcanic forcing. Our results remain dependent on model-simulated signal patterns and internal variability, and would benefit considerably from a wider range of simulations, particularly of the responses to natural external forcing. © Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2006.

Observations of the Earth's near-surface temperature show a global-mean temperature increase of approximately 0.6 K since 1900 (ref. 1), occurring from 1910 to 1940 and from 1970 to the present. The temperature change over the past 30–50 years is unlikely to be entirely due to internal climate variability2,3,4 and has been attributed to changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols5 due to human activity. Attribution of the warming early in the century has proved more elusive. Here we present a quantification of the possible contributions throughout the century from the four components most likely to be responsible for the large-scale temperature changes, of which two vary naturally (solar irradiance and stratospheric volcanic aerosols) and two have changed decisively due to anthropogenic influence (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols). The patterns of time/space changes in near-surface temperature due to the separate forcing components are simulated with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, and a linear combination of these is fitted to observations. Thus our analysis is insensitive to errors in the simulated amplitude of these responses. We find that solar forcing may have contributed to the temperature changes early in the century, but anthropogenic causes combined with natural variability would also present a possible explanation. For the warming from 1946 to 1996 regardless of any possible amplification of solar or volcanic influence, we exclude purely natural forcing, and attribute it largely to the anthropogenic components.

In recent years there has been a growing appreciation of the potential advantages of using a seamless approach to weather and climate prediction. However, what exactly should this mean in practice? To help address this question, we document some of the experiences already gathered over 25 years of developing and using the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) for both weather and climate prediction. Overall, taking a unified approach has given enormous benefits, both scientific and in terms of efficiency, but we also detail some of the challenges it has presented and the approaches taken to overcome them.

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

The regional response of climate models to small perturbations is shown to be highly dependent on the unperturbed simulation. an experiment in which CO2 concentrations are doubled and sea surface temperatures are enhanced by 2 K has been carried out with two general circulation models which differ considerably in their control climates. the resulting changes in tropical precipitation in each model simulation are related to the increase in atmospheric water vapour which leads to enhanced precipitation in the main regions of low-level atmospheric convergence. Since these regions of convergence occur in slightly different locations in the unperturbed simulations, the distribution of changes is also different. Differences in control simulations must be taken into account when comparing results from different models (for example, on doubling atmospheric CO2); otherwise unduly pessimistic conclusions may be reached concerning the consistency of model results. One may be able to make subjective allowance for the effect of known deficiencies in the unperturbed simulation on the model's response before using the simulated changes in, for example, impact studies. A detailed examination of one of the experiments reveals that the change in precipitation is limited by the heat balance of the atmosphere, and indicates the importance of treating accurately the radiative perturbation due to changes in water vapour. the magnitude of the model's response is shown to be consistent with that found in three-dimensional climate models which include a simple representation of the ocean.

It is official: the Earth is getting hotter, and it is down to us. This month scientists from over 60 nations on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of their latest report on global warming. In the report the panel concludes that it is very likely that most of the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature over the last 50 years is due to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases. And the science suggests that much greater changes are in store: by 2100 anthropogenic global warming could be comparable to the warming of about 6 °C since the last ice age.

The commonly held view of the conditions in the North Atlantic at the last glacial maximum, based on the interpretation of proxy records, is of large-scale cooling compared to today, limited deep convection, and extensive sea ice, all associated with a southward displaced and weakened overturning thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. Not all studies support that view; in particular, the “strength of the overturning circulation” is contentious and is a quantity that is difficult to determine even for the present day. Quasi-equilibrium simulations with coupled climate models forced by glacial boundary conditions have produced differing results, as have inferences made from proxy records. Most studies suggest the weaker circulation, some suggest little or no change, and a few suggest a stronger circulation. Here results are presented from a three-dimensional climate model, the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), of the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice system suggesting, in a qualitative sense, that these diverging views could all have occurred at different times during the last glacial period, with different modes existing at different times. One mode might have been characterized by an active THC associated with moderate temperatures in the North Atlantic and a modest expanse of sea ice. The other mode, perhaps forced by large inputs of meltwater from the continental ice sheets into the northern North Atlantic, might have been characterized by a sluggish THC associated with very cold conditions around the North Atlantic and a large areal cover of sea ice. The authors’ model simulation of such a mode, forced by a large input of freshwater, bears several of the characteristics of the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) Project’s reconstruction of glacial sea surface temperature and sea ice extent.

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much (or too little) greenhouse warming by too much (or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater (at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr−1 increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century−1 (5–95 percentiles).

Most of the uncertainty in the climate sensitivity of contemporary general circulation models (GCMs) is believed to be connected with differences in the simulated radiative feedback from clouds. Traditional methods of evaluating clouds in GCMs compare time–mean geographical cloud fields or aspects of present-day cloud variability, with observational data. In both cases a hypothetical assumption is made that the quantity evaluated is relevant for the mean climate change response. Nine GCMs (atmosphere models coupled to mixed-layer ocean models) from the CFMIP and CMIP model comparison projects are used in this study to demonstrate a common relationship between the mean cloud response to climate change and present-day variability. Although atmosphere–mixed-layer ocean models are used here, the results are found to be equally applicable to transient coupled model simulations. When changes in cloud radiative forcing (CRF) are composited by changes in vertical velocity and saturated lower tropospheric stability, a component of the local mean climate change response can be related to present-day variability in all of the GCMs. This suggests that the relationship is not model specific and might be relevant in the real world. In this case, evaluation within the proposed compositing framework is a direct evaluation of a component of the cloud response to climate change. None of the models studied are found to be clearly superior or deficient when evaluated, but a couple appear to perform well on several relevant metrics. Whilst some broad similarities can be identified between the 60°N–60°S mean change in CRF to increased CO2 and that predicted from present-day variability, the two cannot be quantitatively constrained based on changes in vertical velocity and stability alone. Hence other processes also contribute to the global mean cloud response to climate change.

Most of the discrepancies in the climate sensitivity of general circulation models (GCMs) are believed to be due to differences in cloud radiative feedback. Analysis of cloud response to climate change in different ‘regimes’ may offer a more detailed understanding of how the cloud response differs between GCMs. In which case, evaluation of simulated cloud regimes against observations in terms of both their cloud properties and frequency of occurrence will assist in assessing confidence in the cloud response to climate change in a particular GCM. In this study, we use a clustering technique on International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data and on ISCCP-like diagnostics from two versions of the Hadley Centre GCM to identify cloud regimes over four different geographical regions. The two versions of the model are evaluated against observational data and their cloud response to climate change compared within the cloud regime framework. It is found that cloud clusters produced by the more recent GCM, HadSM4, compare more favourably with observations than HadSM3. In response to climate change, although the net cloud response over particular regions is often different in the two models, in several instances the same basic processes may be seen to be operating. Overall, both changes in the frequency of occurrence of cloud regimes and changes in the properties (optical depth and cloud top height) of the cloud regimes contribute to the cloud response to climate change.

Methods used to evaluate the ability of climate models to produce reliable estimates of future climate change are examined and assessed. © Crown copyright, 2004. Royal Meteorological Society

The Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3 simulates a stable thermohaline circulation driven by deep water formation in the Norwegian and Labrador Seas without the need for flux adjustments. It has however been suggested that this result is the fortuitous consequence of the local use of the Roussenov convection scheme in this region, and that the model simulation may depend sensitively on this parameterisation. Here we investigate the sensitivity of the thermohaline circulation (THC) to the model’s treatment of the overflows from the Nordic Seas for both pre-industrial and increasing greenhouse gas forcings. We find that although the density structure in the Labrador Sea does depend upon the specifics of how the overflows are modelled, the global thermohaline circulation and climate responses are not sensitive to these details. This result gives credibility to previously published modelling studies on the response of the thermohaline circulation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, and implies that research may profitably be focussed on the large scale transports, where models are known to disagree.

In this study we examine the anthropogenically forced climate response over the historical period, 1860 to present, and projected response to 2100, using updated emissions scenarios and an improved coupled model (HadCM3) that does not use flux adjustments. We concentrate on four new Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) namely (A1FI, A2, B2, B1) prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report, considered more self-consistent in their socio-economic and emissions structure, and therefore more policy relevant, than older scenarios like IS92a. We include an interactive model representation of the anthropogenic sulfur cycle and both direct and indirect forcings from sulfate aerosols, but omit the second indirect forcing effect through cloud lifetimes. The modelled first indirect forcing effect through cloud droplet size is near the centre of the IPCC uncertainty range. We also model variations in tropospheric and stratospheric ozone. Greenhouse gas-forced climate change response in B2 resembles patterns in IS92a but is smaller. Sulfate aerosol and ozone forcing substantially modulates the response, cooling the land, particularly northern mid-latitudes, and altering the monsoon structure. By 2100, global mean warming in SRES scenarios ranges from 2.6 to 5.3 K above 1900 and precipitation rises by 1%/K through the twenty first century (1.4%/K omitting aerosol changes). Large-scale patterns of response broadly resemble those in an earlier model (HadCM2), but with important regional differences, particularly in the tropics. Some divergence in future response occurs across scenarios for the regions considered, but marked drying in the mid-USA and southern Europe and significantly wetter conditions for South Asia, in June–July–August, are robust and significant.

General circulation models (GCMs) of the climate system are powerful tools for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. The last glacial maximum (LGM) provides an extreme test of the model's ability to simulate a change of climate, and allows us to increase our understanding of mechanisms of climate change. We have used a coupled high resolution ocean–atmosphere GCM (HadCM3) to simulate the equilibrium climate at the LGM. The effect of ocean dynamics is investigated by carrying out a parallel experiment replacing the dynamic three-dimensional ocean GCM with a static thermodynamic mixed-layer ocean model. Changes to the ocean circulation, and feedbacks between the ocean, atmosphere and sea ice have an important influence on the surface response, and are discussed. The coupled model produces an intensified thermohaline circulation and an increase in the amount of heat transported northward by the Atlantic Ocean equatorward of 55°N, which is at odds with the interpretation of some proxy records. Such changes, which the thermodynamic mixed-layer ocean model cannot produce, have a large impact around the North Atlantic region, and are discussed in the study.

This paper reports the main results of an assessment of the global-scale implications of the stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 750 ppm (by 2250) and 550 ppm (by 2150), in relationto a scenario of unmitigated emissions. The climate change scenarios were derived from simulation experiments conducted with the HadCM2 global climate model and forced with the IPCC IS92a, S750 and S550 emissions scenarios. The simulated changes in climate were applied to an observed global baseline climatology, and applied with impacts models to estimate impacts on natural vegetation, water resources, coastal flood risk and wetland loss, crop yield and food security, and malaria. The studies used a single set of population and socio-economic scenarios about the future that are similar to those adopted in the IS92a emissions scenario.An emissions pathway which stabilises CO2 concentrations at 750 ppmby the 2230s delays the 2050 temperature increase under unmitigated emissions by around 50 years. The loss of tropical forest and grassland which occurs by the 2050s under unmitigated emissions is delayed to the 22nd century, and the switch from carbon sink to carbon source is delayed from the 2050s to the 2170s. Coastal wetland loss is slowed. Stabilisation at 750 ppm generally has relatively little effect on the impacts of climate change on water resource stress, and populations at risk of hunger or falciparum malaria until the 2080s.A pathway which stabilises CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm by the 2170s delays the 2050 temperature increase under unmitigated emissions by around 100 years. There is no substantial loss of tropical forest or grassland, even by the 2230s, although the terrestrial carbon store ceases to act as a net carbon sink by around 2170 (this time because the vegetation has reached a new equilibrium with the atmosphere). Coastal wetland loss is slowed considerably, and the increase in coastal flood risk is considerably lower than under unmitigated emissions. CO2 stabilisation at 550 ppm reduces substantially water resource stress, relative to unmitigated emissions, but has relatively little impact on populations at risk of falciparum malaria, and may even cause more people to be at risk of hunger. While this study shows that mitigation avoids many impacts, particularly in the longer-term (beyond the 2080s), stabilisation at 550 ppm appears to be necessary to avoid or significantly reduce most of the projected impacts in the unmitigated case.

Projections of future climate change are uncertain. On the basis of the recent IPCC report, [ Reilly et al .][1] and [ Allen et al .][2] discuss approaches to and problems in quantifying uncertainty in future climate assessments. See also the Research Article by Wigley and Raper (p. [451][3]). [1]: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/293/5529/430a [2]: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/293/5529/430b [3]: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/293/5529/451

Models of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) show a range of responses to the high-latitude warming and freshening characteristic of global warming scenarios. Most simulate a weakening of the THC, with some suggesting possible interruption of the circulation, but others exhibit little change. The mechanisms of the THC response to climate change using the HadCM3 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model, which gives a good simulation of the present-day THC and does not require flux adjustment, were studied. In a range of climate change simulations, the strength of the THC in HadCM3 is proportional to the meridional gradient of steric height (equivalent to column-integrated density) between 30°S and 60°N. During an integration in which CO2 increases at 2% per year for 70 yr, the THC weakens by about 20%, and it stabilizes at this level if the CO2 is subsequently held constant. Changes in surface heat and water fluxes are the cause of the reduction in the steric height gradie...

A comparison of the response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations of two versions of the Met Office's (Hadley Centre) coupled atmosphere–ocean model reveals differences that result in large local variations in the modeled impact of climate change. With the aim of understanding the important processes and feedbacks associated with climate change, and ultimately reducing uncertainty in predictions, a series of sensitivity experiments were performed using a coupled atmosphere–mixed layer ocean model. The primary differences in the atmospheric response of the coupled models studied are found to be due to changes made to the physical representation of the atmosphere rather than to the ocean. In particular, many of the different patterns of response can be explained through changes made to the boundary layer scheme combining in a nonlinear way with changes to the cloud scheme to alter the tropical temperature and precipitation response in the model. A new land surface exchange scheme largely acc...

A coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is used to simulate the climates of today and the last glacial maximum (LGM). The model, which does not require artificial flux adjustments, produces a pattern of cooling at the LGM that is broadly consistent with the findings from simpler models and palaeoclimatic data. However, changes to the ocean circulation produce anomalously warm LGM surface conditions over parts of the North Atlantic, seemingly at odds with palaeoceanographic data. The thermohaline circulation is intensified for several centuries, as is the northward heat transport in the Atlantic equatorward of 55°N, but this may be a transient result. Mechanisms that lead to this response are discussed.

We examine the similarity between patterns of changes in decadally-averaged surface air temperature simulated by ensemble experiments with the HadCM2 coupled climate model and observed patterns over the period 1860–1999, using a spatial pattern correlation method. The analysis is conducted for two anthropogenic (greenhouse gases with/without sulphate aerosols) and two natural (solar and volcanic) modelled forcing histories. For each scenario an ensemble of at least four model runs is used. We compare transient model signal and observed patterns at corresponding times, and establish significance using a 1000 year model control run to construct sampling distributions for random noise patterns. We find evidence of an anthropogenic signal in observed surface temperature patterns emerging over recent decades, particularly in northern winter and spring seasons. Signals from greenhouse gas forcing alone or in combination with sulphate aerosols are both plausible in our analysis, but the highest significance is achieved using seasonally-defined greenhouse gas plus aerosol signals. There is little evidence of any detectable solar signal, but we do find two periods (late 19th century; 1960s–90s) during which a weak volcanic signal is detectable. Using ensemble simulations makes the conclusions quite robust, but the somewhat different interpretations from this analysis compared to optimal fingerprint analysis of the same simulations reveals some sensitivity to the choice of methodology.

A comparison of observations with simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model shows that both natural and anthropogenic factors have contributed significantly to 20th century temperature changes. The model successfully simulates global mean and large-scale land temperature variations, indicating that the climate response on these scales is strongly influenced by external factors. More than 80% of observed multidecadal-scale global mean temperature variations and more than 60% of 10- to 50-year land temperature variations are due to changes in external forcings. Anthropogenic global warming under a standard emissions scenario is predicted to continue at a rate similar to that observed in recent decades.

Fingerprint techniques for the detection of anthropogenic climate change aim to distinguish the climate response to anthropogenic forcing from responses to other external influences and from internal climate variability. All these responses and the characteristics of internal variability are typically estimated from climate model data. We evaluate the sensitivity of detection and attribution results to the use of response and variability estimates from two different coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (HadCM2, developed at the Hadley Centre, and ECHAM3/LSG from the MPI fur Meteorologie and Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum). The models differ in their response to greenhouse gas and direct sulfate aerosol forcing and also in the structure of their internal variability. This leads to differences in the estimated amplitude and the significance level of anthropogenic signals in observed 50-year summer (June, July, August) surface temperature trends. While the detection of anthropogenic influence on climate is robust to intermodel differences, our ability to discriminate between the greenhouse gas and the sulfate aerosol signals is not. An analysis of the recent warming, and the warming that occurred in the first half of the twentieth century, suggests that simulations forced with combined changes in natural (solar and volcanic) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol) forcings agree best with the observations.

Forecasts of climate change are inevitably uncertain. It is therefore essential to quantify the risk of significant departures from the predicted response to a given emission scenario. Previous analyses of this risk have been based either on expert opinion, perturbation analysis of simplified climate models or the comparison of predictions from general circulation models. Recent observed changes that appear to be attributable to human influence provide a powerful constraint on the uncertainties in multi-decadal forecasts. Here we assess the range of warming rates over the coming 50 years that are consistent with the observed near-surface temperature record as well as with the overall patterns of response predicted by several general circulation models. We expect global mean temperatures in the decade 2036-46 to be 1-2.5 K warmer than in pre-industrial times under a 'business as usual' emission scenario. This range is relatively robust to errors in the models' climate sensitivity, rate of oceanic heat uptake or global response to sulphate aerosols as long as these errors are persistent over time. Substantial changes in the current balance of greenhouse warming and sulphate aerosol cooling would, however, increase the uncertainty. Unlike 50-year warming rates, the final equilibrium warming after the atmospheric composition stabilizes remains very uncertain, despite the evidence provided by the emerging signal.

The effect on climate of stabilising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at 550ppm and 750ppm is investigated using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model and compared with the response to a baseline case (1% per year increase in carbon dioxide concentrations beyond 1990). Changes in other well-mixed greenhouse gases are not considered (although these are expected to increase in the future), so in practical terms the simulated changes in climate correspond to lower levels of carbon dioxide stabilisation. The global-mean warming between 1990 and 2100 is reduced by 40% and 55% respectively, in close agreement with estimates using energy balance models. Sea-level rise up to 2100 is also reduced, but in the longer stabilisation runs, unlike temperature, sea-level continues to rise throughout the simulations with little reduction of the rate of rise. The patterns of temperature and precipitation change are largely unchanged except that the southern hemisphere warms relative to the northern hemisphere. Changes over five subcontinental regions are considered in more detail. All of the regions, for all of the simulations, show a statistically significant warming by 2100. The reduction in annual-mean warming resulting from stabilisation is also significant by 2100. The seasonal changes in precipitation are significant by 2100 in the baseline simulation but the significance of differences in precipitation between the baseline and stabilisation simulations depends on location and season.

A doubled CO2 coupled ocean-atmosphere experiment has been run for over 800 years. The ‘effective’ equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 (the equilibrium response of the model assuming the feedbacks remained constant at the value found at any given point of the transient response) is calculated throughout the run and found to increase by around 40%. The time-dependence is associated with differences in cloud feedback arising from inter-hemispheric temperature differences due to the slower warming rate of the Southern Ocean. The time-dependence of the climate response has implications for the use of simpler models in scaling GCM results to different scenarios of forcing.

Results are presented from a new version of the Hadley Centre coupled model (HadCM3) that does not require flux adjustments to prevent large climate drifts in the simulation. The model has both an improved atmosphere and ocean component. In particular, the ocean has a 1.25° × 1.25° degree horizontal resolution and leads to a considerably improved simulation of ocean heat transports compared to earlier versions with a coarser resolution ocean component. The model does not have any spin up procedure prior to coupling and the simulation has been run for over 400 years starting from observed initial conditions. The sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice simulation are shown to be stable and realistic. The trend in global mean SST is less than 0.009 °C per century. In part, the improved simulation is a consequence of a greater compatibility of the atmosphere and ocean model heat budgets. The atmospheric model surface heat and momentum budget are evaluated by comparing with climatological ship-based estimates. Similarly the ocean model simulation of poleward heat transports is compared with direct ship-based observations for a number of sections across the globe. Despite the limitations of the observed datasets, it is shown that the coupled model is able to reproduce many aspects of the observed heat budget.

We analyse spatio-temporal patterns of near-surface temperature change to provide an attribution of twentieth century climate change. We apply an “optimal detection” methodology to seasonal and annual data averaged over a range of spatial and temporal scales. We find that solar effects may have contributed significantly to the warming in the first half of the century although this result is dependent on the reconstruction of total solar irradiance that is used. In the latter half of the century, we find that anthropogenic increases in greenhouses gases are largely responsible for the observed warming, balanced by some cooling due to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols, with no evidence for significant solar effects.

We describe a set of global climate change scenarios that have been used in a series of studies investigating the global impacts of climate change on several environmental systems and resources — ecosystems, food security, water resources, malaria and coastal flooding. These scenarios derive from modelling experiments completed by the Hadley Centre over the last four years using successive versions of their coupled ocean–atmosphere global climate model. The scenarios benefit from ensemble simulations (made using HadCM2) and from an un-flux-corrected experiment (made using HadCM3), but consider only the effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The effects of associated changes in sulphate aerosol concentrations are not considered. The scenarios are presented for three future time periods — 30-year means centred on the 2020s, the 2050s and the 2080s — and are expressed with respect to the mean 1961–1990 climate. A global land observed climatology at 0.5° latitude/longitude resolution is used to describe current climate. Other scenario variables — atmospheric CO2 concentrations, global-mean sea-level rise and non-climatic assumptions relating to population and economy — are also provided. We discuss the limitations of the created scenarios and in particular draw attention to sources of uncertainty that we have not fully sampled.

The heat transported northwards by the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation warms the climate of western Europe1,2,3. Previous model studies4,5,6 have suggested that the circulation is sensitive to increases in atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, but such models have been criticised for the use of unphysical ‘flux adjustments’7,8,9 (artificial corrections that keep the model from drifting to unrealistic states), and for their inability to simulate deep-water formation both north and south of the Greenland–Iceland–Scotland ridge, as seen in observations10,11. Here we present simulations of today's thermohaline circulation using a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model without flux adjustments. These simulations compare well with the observed thermohaline circulation, including the formation of deep water on each side of the Greenland–Iceland–Scotland ridge. The model responds to forcing with increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations by a collapse of the circulation and convection in the Labrador Sea, while the deep-water formation north of the ridge remains stable. These changes are similar intwo simulations with different rates of increase of CO2 concentrations. The effects of increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations that we simulate are potentially observable, suggesting that it is possible to set up an oceanic monitoring system for the detection of anthropogenic influence on ocean circulation.

Climate impacts assessments need regional scenarios of climate change for a wide range of projected emissions. General circulation models (GCMs) are the most promising approach to providing such information, but as yet there is considerable uncertainty in their regional projections and they are still too costly to run for a large number of emission scenarios. Simpler models have been used to estimate global-mean temperature changes under a range of scenarios. In this paper we investigate whether a fixed pattern from a GCM experiment scaled by global-mean temperature changes from a simple model provides an acceptable estimate of the regional climate change over a range of scenarios. Changes estimated using this approximate approach are evaluated by comparing them with results from ensembles of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Five specific emissions scenarios are considered. For increases in greenhouse gases only, the 'error' in annual mean temperature for the cases considered is smaller than the sampling error due to the model's internal variability. The method may break down for scenarios of stabilisation of concentrations, because the patterns change as the model approaches equilibrium. The inclusion of large local perturbations due to sulphate aerosols can lead to significant deviations of the temperature pattern from that obtained using greenhouse gases alone. Combining separate patterns for the responses to greenhouse gases and aerosols may improve the accuracy of approximation. Finally, the accuracy of the scaling approach is more difficult to assess for deriving changes in regional precipitation because many of the regional changes are not statistically significant in the climate change projections considered here. If precipitation changes are only marginally significant in other models, the apparent disagreement between different models may be as much due to sampling error as to genuine differences in model response.

Examined here is the effect on simulated monsoon precipitation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92a non-intervention anthropogenic emissions scenario (Leggett et al., 1992) over Southeast Asia. By the middle of the next century, increases in greenhouse gases enhance monsoon precipitation by 1% (a net reduction of 7% with aerosol added), though the changes are far from uniform across the region. The monsoon onset date is delayed by about 10 days in the west (15 days when sulphate effects are included). The range of precipitation intensity over the region broadens, with decreases prevalent in the west and increases more widespread in the east. Although the details of the changes are likely to be model dependent, the simulations indicate that changes in mean monsoon precipitation are likely to be accompanied by substantial changes in other characteristics of the monsoon including the date of onset and precipitation intensity.

The response of a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model to mid-Holocene insolation forcing is compared with results from an atmospheric model with prescribed present day sea surface temperatures and mid-Holocene insolation. The ocean response increases the amplitude of the seasonal temperature response over land, and increases its lag behind the solar forcing. The tropical oceans in the coupled model are coldest, relative to the control, in May at 6ka leading to a relative reduction in evaporation, precipitation and ascending motion over the ocean, and relative ascent and increased precipitation over equatorial Africa. By September, the tropical oceans are warmer than in the fixed SST experiment which leads to increased moisture flux from the oceans into the southeast monsoon, and a larger increase in monsoon precipitation than in the fixed SST experiment. In addition, the enhanced warming of the northern hemisphere SSTs relative to the southern subtropics leads to a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. As a result, increased wetness of the tropical land surface in the mid Holocene experiments is more pronounced and extends further northwards when the sea surface temperatures are allowed to respond. The coupled model results are more in accord with lake level data, especially over North Africa.

A general circulation model is used to examine the effects of reduced atmospheric CO2, insolation changes and an updated reconstruction of the continental ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). A set of experiments is performed to estimate the radiative forcing from each of the boundary conditions. These calculations are used to estimate a total radiative forcing for the climate of the LGM. The response of the general circulation model to the forcing from each of the changed boundary conditions is then investigated. About two-thirds of the simulated glacial cooling is due to the presence of the continental ice sheets. The effect of the cloud feedback is substantially modified where there are large changes to surface albedo. Finally, the climate sensitivity is estimated based on the global mean LGM radiative forcing and temperature response, and is compared to the climate sensitivity calculated from equilibrium experiments with atmospheric CO2 doubled from present day concentration. The calculations here using the model and palaeodata support a climate sensitivity of about 1 Wm-2 K-1 which is within the conventional range.

A multi-fingerprint analysis is applied to the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change. While a single fingerprint is optimal for the detection of climate change, further tests of the statistical consistency of the detected climate change signal with model predictions for different candidate forcing mechanisms require the simultaneous application of several fingerprints. Model-predicted climate change signals are derived from three anthropogenic global warming simulations for the period 1880 to 2049 and two simulations forced by estimated changes in solar radiation from 1700 to 1992. In the first global warming simulation, the forcing is by greenhouse gas only, while in the remaining two simulations the direct influence of sulfate aerosols is also included. From the climate change signals of the greenhouse gas only and the average of the two greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol simulations, two optimized fingerprint patterns are derived by weighting the model-predicted climate change patterns towards low-noise directions. The optimized fingerprint patterns are then applied as a filter to the observed near-surface temperature trend patterns, yielding several detection variables. The space-time structure of natural climate variability needed to determine the optimal fingerprint pattern and the resultant signal-to-noise ratio of the detection variable is estimated from several multi-century control simulations with different CGCMs and from instrumental data over the last 136 y. Applying the combined greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol fingerprint in the same way as the greenhouse gas only fingerprint in a previous work, the recent 30-y trends (1966–1995) of annual mean near surface temperature are again found to represent a significant climate change at the 97.5% confidence level. However, using both the greenhouse gas and the combined forcing fingerprints in a two-pattern analysis, a substantially better agreement between observations and the climate model prediction is found for the combined forcing simulation. Anticipating that the influence of the aerosol forcing is strongest for longer term temperature trends in summer, application of the detection and attribution test to the latest observed 50-y trend pattern of summer temperature yielded statistical consistency with the greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol simulation with respect to both the pattern and amplitude of the signal. In contrast, the observations are inconsistent with the greenhouse-gas only climate change signal at a 95% confidence level for all estimates of climate variability. The observed trend 1943–1992 is furthermore inconsistent with a hypothesized solar radiation change alone at an estimated 90% confidence level. Thus, in contrast to the single pattern analysis, the two pattern analysis is able to discriminate between different forcing hypotheses in the observed climate change signal. The results are subject to uncertainties associated with the forcing history, which is poorly known for the solar and aerosol forcing, the possible omission of other important forcings, and inevitable model errors in the computation of the response to the forcing. Further uncertainties in the estimated significance levels arise from the use of model internal variability simulations and relatively short instrumental observations (after subtraction of an estimated greenhouse gas signal) to estimate the natural climate variability. The resulting confidence limits accordingly vary for different estimates using different variability data. Despite these uncertainties, however, we consider our results sufficiently robust to have some confidence in our finding that the observed climate change is consistent with a combined greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing, but inconsistent with greenhouse gas or solar forcing alone.

An increase in global average precipitation of about 10% is simulated by two global climate models with mixed layer oceans in response to an equilibrium doubling of carbon dioxide. The UKHI model was developed in the United Kingdom at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and the CSIRO9 model was developed in Australia by the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research. Regional changes in daily precipitation simulated by these models have been compared. Both models simulate fewer wet days in middle latitudes, and more wet days in high latitudes. At middle and low latitudes, there is a shift in the precipitation type toward more intense convective events, and fewer moderate non-convective events. At high latitudes, the precipitation type remains non-convective and all events simply get heavier, resulting in fewer light events and more moderate and heavy events. The probability of heavy daily precipitation increases by more than 50% in many locations. Extreme events with a probability of 1% or less were considered in terms of return periods (the average period between events of the same magnitude). For a given return period of at least 1 y, precipitation intensity in Europe, USA, Australia and India increases by 10 to 25%. For a given precipitation intensity, the average return period becomes shorter by a factor of 2 to 5. Given that larger changes in frequency occur for heavier simulated events, changes may be even greater for more-extreme events not resolved by models.

Coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models have a tendency to drift away from a realistic climatology. The modelled climate response to an increase of CO2 concentration may be incorrect if the simulation of the current climate has significant errors, so in many models, including ours, the drift is counteracted by applying prescribed fluxes of heat and fresh water at the ocean‐atmosphere interface in addition to the calculated surface exchanges. Since the additional fluxes do not have a physical basis, the use of this technique of “flux adjustment” itself introduces some uncertainty in the simulated response to increased CO2. We find that the global‐average temperature response of our model to CO2 increasing at 1% per year is about 30% less without flux adjustment than with flux adjustment. The geographical patterns of the response are similar, indicating that flux adjustment is not causing any gross distortion. The reduced size of the response is due to more effective vertical transport of heat into the ocean, and a somewhat smaller climate sensitivity. Although the response in both cases lies within the generally accepted range for the climate sensitivity, systematic uncertainties of this size are clearly undesirable, and the best strategy for future development is to improve the climate model in order to reduce the need for flux adjustment.

The variability of near surface temperature on global and regional spatial scales and interannual time scales from a 1000 year control integration of the Hadley Centre coupled model (HADCM2-CTL) are compared with the observational record of surface temperature. The model succeeds in reproducing the observed patterns of natural variability, with high variability over the northern continents and low variability over much of the tropics. The model global mean variability has similar strength to observed global mean variability on time scales less than 20 years. The warming seen in the historical record is outside the range of natural variability as simulated in HADCM2-CTL. The model has El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like behaviour with a central Pacific, peak to peak, strength of approximately 3 K. Changes in near surface temperature in the central Pacific are strongly correlated with changes in near surface temperature over most of the tropics, large regions of the extra-tropics and changes in tropical ocean upper 250 m heat content. Tropospheric temperature changes and tropical surface pressure changes are also strongly correlated with changes in the central Pacific surface temperature. Oceanic regions show significant departures from an AR1 or first order Markov behaviour in the Northwest Atlantic, Northwest Pacific and Arctic oceans. The Northwest Atlantic region has large amounts of variability over periods greater than 50 years. This variability is associated with a jump in the strength of North Atlantic meridional stream function. The spectra of the Western European and Continental US land regions are not significantly different from an AR1 process. The flow through the Drake Passage has an interannual standard deviation of approximately 2.5 Sv with significant departures from an AR1 process at time scales greater than 40 years. Winter northern hemispheric 500 hPa geopotential height shows some evidence of multiple regimes but no year to year persistence of these regimes.

A time-dependent climate-change experiment with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model has been used to study changes in the occurrence of drought in summer in southern Europe and central North America. In both regions, precipitation and soil moisture are reduced in a climate of greater atmospheric carbon dioxide. A detailed investigation of the hydrology of the model shows that the drying of the soil comes about through an increase in evaporation in winter and spring, caused by higher temperatures and reduced snow cover, and a decrease in the net input of water in summer. Evaporation is reduced in summer because of the drier soil, but the reduction in precipitation is larger. Three extreme statistics are used to define drought, namely the frequency of low summer precipitation, the occurrence of long dry spells, and the probability of dry soil. The last of these is arguably of the greatest practical importance, but since it is based on soil moisture, of which there are very few obse...

This study describes a new coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) developed for studies of climate change and results from a hindcast experiment. The model includes various physical and technical improvements relative to an earlier version of the Hadley Centre OAGCM. A coupled spinup process is used to bring the model to equilibrium. Compared to uncoupled spinup methods this is computationally more expensive, but helps to counter climate drift arising from inadequate sampling of short time scale coupled variability when the components are equilibrated separately. Including sea ice advection and enhancing reference surface salinities in high southern latitudes in austral winter to promote bottom water formation during spinup appears to have stabilized the high-latitude drift exhibited in the earlier model’s control run. In the present study, the atmospheric control climate is stable on multi-century time scales with a drift in global average surface air temperature of only +0.016 K/century, despite a small residual drift in the deep ocean. The control climate is an improvement over the earlier model in several respects, notably in its variability on short time scales. Two anomaly runs are presented incorporating estimated forcing changes over the period 1860 to 1990 arising from greenhouse gases alone and from greenhouse gases plus the radiative scattering effect of sulphate aerosols. These allow validation of the model against the instrumental climate record. Inclusion of aerosol forcing gives a significantly better simulation of historical temperature patterns, although comparisons against recent sea ice trends are equivocal. These studies emphasize the potential importance of including additional forcing terms apart from greenhouse gases in climate simulations, and refining estimates of their spatial distribution and magnitude.

There is increasing evidence that the response of climate to increasing greenhouse gases may be modified by accompanying increases in sulfate aerosols. In this study, the patterns of response in the surface climatology of a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model forced by increases in carbon dioxide alone is compared with those obtained by increasing carbon dioxide and aerosol forcing. The simulations are run from early industrial times using the estimated historical forcing and continued to the end of the twenty-first century assuming a nonintervention emissions scenario for greenhouse gases and aerosols. The comparison is made for the period 2030–2050 when the aerosol forcing is a maximum. In winter, the cooling due to aerosols merely tends to reduce the response to carbon dioxide, whereas in summer, it weakens the monsoon circulations and reverses some of the changes in the hydrological cycle on increasing carbon dioxide. This response is in some respects similar to that found in s...

Many of the findings of the Charney Report on CO2-induced climate change published in 1979 are still valid, even after 30 additional years of climate research and observations. This paper considers the reasons why the report was so prescient, and assesses the progress achieved since its publication. We suggest that emphasis on the importance of physical understanding gained through the use of theory and simple models, both in isolation and as an aid in the interpretation of the results of General Circulation Models, provided much of the authors’ insight at the time. Increased emphasis on these aspects of research is likely to continue to be productive in the future, and even to constitute one of the most efficient routes towards improved climate change assessments.

A simulation of the climate for 6 kyr BP, using the Hadley Centre's atmospheric GCM with prescribed SSTs is described. The control simulation successfully reproduces the large-scale features of the present-day climate and has realistic atmospheric interannual variability. The anomaly simulation for 6 kyr BP produces a climate with an enhanced Northern Hemisphere seasonal cycle, and, in particular, a strengthened African-Asian summer monsoon. Integrated over the full annual cycle, the land surface of the southern Tropics dries while the northern Tropics get wetter, and the high northern latitudes also dry. The model simulates large regional interdecadal differences in the response at 6 kyr BP highlighting the need to allow for and account for variability on long, that is, at least decadal, timescales. The authors describe the consequences of part of the experimental design employed, whereby the SSTs for the 6 kyr BP simulation are the same as in the control as recommended by the Paleoclimate Model...

Stand on the sea shore and watch the waves come in. If you only watch for a couple of minutes it can be impossible to tell if the tide is ebbing or flowing. Watch for five minutes and you might be reasonably sure, although the particular sequence of waves might be misleading. After 20 minutes the answer should be clear beyond doubt.

Two methods for identifying mid-latitude synoptic time scale variability have been applied to data from the first United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments with present day and gradually increasing CO2 concentrations. In the first the standard deviation of the time filtered mean sea level pressure field is taken to identify the location of the storm track and in the second individual cyclones are identified using synoptic criteria. The results have been compared with data from a 10 year archive of UKMO analysis. In the enhanced CO2 experiment the changes in storminess identified by the two methods have been compared with changes in mean and maximum winds with special emphasis on the North Atlantic. The relative utility of the different measures for predicting potentially damaging synoptic events is discussed.

The effect of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and sulphate aerosols on near-surface temperature is investigated using a version of the Hadley Centre atmospheric model coupled to a mixed layer ocean. The scattering of sunlight by sulphate aerosols is represented by appropriately enhancing the surface albede. On doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, the global mean temperature increases by 5.2 K. An integration with a 39% increase in CO2, giving the estimated change in radiative heating due to increases in greenhouse gases since 1900, produced an equilibrium warming of 2.3 K, which, even allowing for oceanic inertia, is significantly higher than the observed warming over the same period. Furthermore, the simulation suggests a substantial warming everywhere, whereas the observations indicate isolated regions of cooling including parts of the northern midlatitude continents. The addition of an estimate of the effect of scattering by current industrial aerosols (unce...