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Background Pneumonia is the leading cause of death in young children globally and is prevalent in the highlands of Papua New Guinea (PNG). We investigated clinical predictors of severe pneumonia to inform local treatment guidelines in this resource-limited setting. Methods Between 2013 and 2020, prospective studies were undertaken enrolling children Results There were 2067 cases of pneumonia, hypoxaemia was detected in 36.1%. Bacteraemia was identified in 47/1943 (2.4%) blood cultures. Of 1444 children followed up, 18 (1.2%) died. Central cyanosis (odds ratio 3.82, 95% CI 2.55-5.71) and reduced breath sounds (2.77, 2.17-3.53) independently predicted hypoxaemia; altered consciousness (21.44, 3.91-117.48), bronchial breathing (10.49, 2.01-54.63) and apnoea (2.54, 1.26-5.14) independently predicted bacteraemia; and altered consciousness (20.95, 2.32-189.00), reduced skin turgor (14.43 (4.79-43.49) and central cyanosis (5.96, 2.13-16.66) independently predicted death. Conclusions In children with pneumonia in the PNG highlands, those with central cyanosis, apnoea, bronchial breathing, altered consciousness or reduced skin turgor are at greatest risk of severe outcomes. Ongoing training of health care workers is essential to ensure these signs are recognised and appropriate management promptly instituted. Key messages Prompt recognition of signs of severity is likely to lead to better outcomes for children in PNG with pneumonia. These findings will inform future modifications to local treatment guidelines.

Background Pneumonia and meningitis are common causes of severe childhood illness in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The etiology of both clinical conditions in PNG has not been recently assessed. Changes in lifestyle, provision and access to healthcare, antimicrobial utilization and resistance, and the national childhood vaccination schedule necessitate reassessment. Methods A prospective case-control study was undertaken, enrolling children 3 months increased from 14.9 to 43.0% and 29.0 to 47.7% in cases and controls (both p 3 months was only 4.0 and 6.5%. Conclusions Recruitment of large numbers of pediatric pneumonia and meningitis cases and community controls in a third-world setting presents unique challenges. Successful enrolment of 998 cases and 978 controls with comprehensive clinical data, biological specimens and follow up was achieved. Increased vaccine coverage remains an ongoing health priority. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s41479-017-0029-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.