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Climate‐driven alterations to disturbance regimes are increasingly disrupting patterns of recovery in many biomes. Here, we examine the impact of disturbance and subsequent level of recovery in live hard coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) across the last three decades. We demonstrate that a preexisting pattern of infrequent disturbances of limited spatial extent has changed to larger and more frequent disturbances, dominated by marine heatwaves and severe tropical cyclones. We detected an increase in the impact (measured as coral loss) across 265 individual disturbance impacts on 131 reefs in a 36‐year dataset (1985–2022). Additionally, the number of survey reefs impacted by disturbance has increased each decade from 6% in the 1980s to 44% in the 2010s, as has the frequency of mass coral bleaching across the GBR, which has increased between 19% and 28% per year, and cyclones (3%–5% per year), resulting in less time for recovery. Of the 265 disturbance impacts we recorded, complete recovery to the highest levels of coral cover recorded earlier in this study (the "historical benchmark") occurred only 62 (23%) times. Of the 23% of disturbance impacts that resulted in complete recovery to historical benchmarks, 34/62 recovered to their benchmark in 2021 or 2022. Complete recovery was more likely when the historical benchmark was <25% live hard coral cover. The lack of recovery was attributed to recovery time windows becoming shorter due to increases in the frequency of cyclones and of thermal stress events that result in mass coral bleaching episodes. These results confirm that climate change is contributing to ecosystem‐wide changes in the ability of coral reefs to recover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of increasing cumulative effects from human and natural disturbances, sustaining coral reefs will require a deeper understanding of the drivers of coral resilience in space and time. Here we develop a high‐resolution, spatially explicit model of coral dynamics on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Our model accounts for biological, ecological and environmental processes, as well as spatial variation in water quality and the cumulative effects of coral diseases, bleaching, outbreaks of crown‐of‐thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris), and tropical cyclones. Our projections reconstruct coral cover trajectories between 1996 and 2017 over a total reef area of 14,780 km2, predicting a mean annual coral loss of −0.67%/year mostly due to the impact of cyclones, followed by starfish outbreaks and coral bleaching. Coral growth rate was the highest for outer shelf coral communities characterized by digitate and tabulate Acropora spp. and exposed to low seasonal variations in salinity and sea surface temperature, and the lowest for inner‐shelf communities exposed to reduced water quality. We show that coral resilience (defined as the net effect of resistance and recovery following disturbance) was negatively related to the frequency of river plume conditions, and to reef accessibility to a lesser extent. Surprisingly, reef resilience was substantially lower within no‐take marine protected areas, however this difference was mostly driven by the effect of water quality. Our model provides a new validated, spatially explicit platform for identifying the reefs that face the greatest risk of biodiversity loss, and those that have the highest chances to persist under increasing disturbance regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]